Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models     

Esther Salazar  Dorit Hammerling  Xia Wang  Bruno Sansó  Andrew O. Finley  Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.  相似文献   

Using a regional numerical weather prediction model for GNSS positioning over Brazil     

Daniele Barroca Marra Alves  Luiz Fernando Sapucci  Haroldo Antonio Marques  Eniuce Menezes de Souza  Tayná Aparecida Ferreira Gouveia  Jackes Akira Magário 《GPS Solutions》2016,20(4):677-685

The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) can provide centimeter positioning accuracy at low costs. However, in order to obtain the desired high accuracy, it is necessary to use high-quality atmospheric models. We focus on the troposphere, which is an important topic of research in Brazil where the tropospheric characteristics are unique, both spatially and temporally. There are dry regions, which lie mainly in the central part of the country. However, the most interesting area for the investigation of tropospheric models is the wet region which is located in the Amazon forest. This region substantially affects the variability of humidity over other regions of Brazil. It provides a large quantity of water vapor through the humidity convergence zone, especially for the southeast region. The interconnection and large fluxes of water vapor can generate serious deficiencies in tropospheric modeling. The CPTEC/INPE (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/Brazilian Institute for Space Research) has been providing since July 2012 a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for South America, known as Eta. It has yield excellent results in weather prediction but has not been used in GNSS positioning. This NWP model was evaluated in precise point positioning (PPP) and network-based positioning. Concerning PPP, the best positioning results were obtained for the station SAGA, located in Amazon region. Using the NWP model, the 3D RMS are less than 10 cm for all 24 h of data, whereas the values reach approximately 60 cm for the Hopfield model. For network-based positioning, the best results were obtained mainly when the tropospheric characteristics are critical, in which case an improvement of up to 7.2 % was obtained in 3D RMS using NWP models.  相似文献   

Zircon M127 – A Homogeneous Reference Material for SIMS U–Pb Geochronology Combined with Hafnium,Oxygen and,Potentially, Lithium Isotope Analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Lutz Nasdala  Fernando Corfu  John W. Valley  Michael J. Spicuzza  Fu‐Yuan Wu  Qiu‐Li Li  Yue‐Heng Yang  Chris Fisher  Carsten Münker  Allen K. Kennedy  Peter W. Reiners  Andreas Kronz  Michael Wiedenbeck  Richard Wirth  Chutimun Chanmuang  Manuela Zeug  Tamás Váczi  Nicholas Norberg  Tobias Häger  Alfred Kröner  Wolfgang Hofmeister 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(4):457-475

In this article, we document a detailed analytical characterisation of zircon M127, a homogeneous 12.7 carat gemstone from Ratnapura, Sri Lanka. Zircon M127 has TIMS‐determined mean U–Pb radiogenic isotopic ratios of 0.084743 ± 0.000027 for ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U and 0.67676 ± 0.00023 for ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U (weighted means, 2s uncertainties). Its ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 524.36 ± 0.16 Ma (95% confidence uncertainty) is concordant within the uncertainties of decay constants. The δ¹⁸O value (determined by laser fluorination) is 8.26 ± 0.06‰ VSMOW (2s), and the mean ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf ratio (determined by solution ICP‐MS) is 0.282396 ± 0.000004 (2s). The SIMS‐determined δ⁷Li value is ?0.6 ± 0.9‰ (2s), with a mean mass fraction of 1.0 ± 0.1 μg g^?1 Li (2s). Zircon M127 contains ~ 923 μg g^?1 U. The moderate degree of radiation damage corresponds well with the time‐integrated self‐irradiation dose of 1.82 × 10¹⁸ alpha events per gram. This observation, and the (U–Th)/He age of 426 ± 7 Ma (2s), which is typical of unheated Sri Lankan zircon, enable us to exclude any thermal treatment. Zircon M127 is proposed as a reference material for the determination of zircon U–Pb ages by means of SIMS in combination with hafnium and stable isotope (oxygen and potentially also lithium) determination.  相似文献   

Deep seismic exploration of the Iberian Microplate     

Juvenal Andres  David Marti  Ignacio Marzan  Imma Palomeras  Puy Ayarz  Fernando Simancas  DavidMartinez-Poyatos  Antonio Azor  Francisco Gonzalez-Lodeiro?  Jordi Diaz  Ramon Carbonel 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(Z1):11-11

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Increase in Dissolved Silica of Rivers Due to a Volcanic Eruption in an Estuarine Bay (Sorsogon Bay,Philippines)     

Fernando P. Siringan  Erwin Don R. Racasa  Carlos Primo C. David  Rhodelyn C. Saban 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(8):2277-2288

Mount Bulusan, the Philippines’ fourth most active volcano, erupted in February 21, 2011, sending volcanic ash and pyroclastic materials to its surrounding rivers. The waters drained into the estuary of harmful algal blooms plagued Sorsogon Bay. We aim to determine the impact of the 2011 volcanic eruption and the preceding volcanic ash emissions to the dissolved silica concentration of rivers draining the flanks of Mt. Bulusan and its possible implications to the phytoplankton assemblage of the bay. Six river water sampling periods from August 2010 to October 2012 overlapped with Mt. Bulusan’s active phase of volcanism. Our data shows that mean river silica from pre-eruption levels of ~?500 μM increased by more than 200% during and post-eruption. Highest Si concentration of 2270 μM was measured from Cadacan River in August 2011. Here, we argue that the sustained general increase of dissolved silica is due to the silica-containing materials from Mt. Bulusan’s eruption and that their concentration in river waters is also a function of watershed lithology and precipitation. Increase in dissolved silica and other nutrients caused a shift to diatom domination and, possibly, termination of Pyrodinium bahamense var. compressum blooms. Silica load increase in embayments is a natural process that controls the dominance of algae. Our study also highlights the importance of Philippine rivers to the global ocean silica budget as a function of high precipitation, tectonics in general, and volcanism in particular.  相似文献   

Rutile R632 – A New Natural Reference Material for U‐Pb and Zr Determination          下载免费PDF全文

Emelie Axelsson  Jonas Pape  Jasper Berndt  Fernando Corfu  Klaus Mezger  Michael M. Raith 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2018,42(3):319-338

A new natural rutile reference material is presented, suitable for U‐Pb dating and Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry by microbeam methods. U‐Pb dating of rutile R632 using laser ablation ICP‐MS with both magnetic sector field and quadrupole instruments as well as isotope dilution‐thermal ionisation mass spectrometry yielded a concordia age of 496 ± 2 Ma. The high U content (> 300 μg g^?1) enabled measurement of high‐precision U‐Pb ages despite its young age. The sample was found to have a Zr content of 4294 ± 196 μg g^?1, which makes it an excellent complementary reference material for Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry. Individual rutile grains have homogeneous compositions of a number of other trace elements including V, Cr, Fe, Nb, Mo, Sn, Sb, Hf, Ta and W. This newly characterised material significantly expands the range of available rutile reference materials relevant for age and temperature determinations.  相似文献   

Characterization and rehabilitation of the “Porta Férrea” stone materials,University of Coimbra,Portugal     

Lídia Catarino  Francisco P. S. C. Gil  Mário Quinta-Ferreira  Fernando Marques 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(11):416

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Place and people: spatializing degrees of bonding and bridging social capital in Lisbon (Portugal)     

Acedo  Albert  Santa  Fernando  Johnson  Peter A. 《GeoJournal》2021,86(6):2905-2925

GeoJournal - Broad academic interest in measuring social relationships within an urban context has grown over recent decades. Significant research attention is focused on where social synergies...  相似文献   

Quantitative 3D imaging of partially saturated granular materials under uniaxial compression     

Milatz  Marius  Hüsener  Nicole  Andò  Edward  Viggiani  Gioacchino  Grabe  Jürgen 《Acta Geotechnica》2021,16(11):3573-3600

Acta Geotechnica - Gauging the mechanical effect of partial saturation in granular materials is experimentally challenging due to the very low suctions resulting from large pores. To this end, a...  相似文献   

Shear wave propagation along infinite slopes: A theoretically based numerical study     

C. di Prisco  M. Pastor  F. Pisanò 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2012,36(5):619-642

In this paper, the seismic response of ‘infinitely’ long slopes is numerically analysed via the formulation of a 1D analytical/numerical model, in which the soil mechanical behaviour is assumed to be elasto‐perfectly viscoplastic and simple shear (SS) kinematical constraints are imposed. In order to simplify the problem, a theoretically based procedure to set up a fully 1D shear constitutive model is defined, within which the mechanical response of a multiaxial relationship is condensed. The use of a 1D shear constitutive model is aimed at reducing the number of unknowns and, therefore, the computational costs. In particular, the case of the Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion is considered, while an enhanced Taylor–Galerkin finite element algorithm is employed to simulate the seismic wave propagation within the soil stratum. The proposed ‘condensation’/calibration procedure captures both the ‘pseudo’‐hardening pre‐failure behaviour and the influence of dilation on the occurrence of strain‐localization, which characterize, under SS conditions, the static response of virgin perfectly plastic soils. The effectiveness of the conceived method is shown with reference to freshly deposited deposits, while, in the case of highly overconsolidated strata, some difficulties arise because of the brittle behaviour induced both by unloading and non‐associativeness. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献