Reducing uncertainty in stochastic streamflow generation and reservoir sizing by combining observed,reconstructed and projected streamflow     

Jason?PatskoskiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  A.?Sankarasubramanian 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):1065-1083

Reservoir sizing is one of the most important aspects of water resources engineering as the storage in a reservoir must be sufficient to supply water during extended droughts. Typically, observed streamflow is used to stochastically generate multiple realizations of streamflow to estimate the required storage based on the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SQP). The main limitation in this approach is that the parameters of the stochastic model are purely derived from the observed record (limited to less than 80 years of data) which does not have information related to prehistoric droughts. Further, reservoir sizing is typically estimated to meet future increase in water demand, and there is no guarantee that future streamflow over the planning period will be representative of past streamflow records. In this context, reconstructed streamflow records, usually estimated based on tree ring chronologies, provide better estimates of prehistoric droughts, and future streamflow records over the planning period could be obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) which provide 30 year near-term climate change projections. In this study, we developed paleo streamflow records and future streamflow records for 30 years are obtained by forcing the projected precipitation and temperature from the GCMs over a lumped watershed model. We propose combining observed, reconstructed and projected streamflows to generate synthetic streamflow records using a Bayesian framework that provides the posterior distribution of reservoir storage estimates. The performance of the Bayesian framework is compared to a traditional stochastic streamflow generation approach. Findings based on the split-sample validation show that the Bayesian approach yielded generated streamflow traces more representative of future streamflow conditions than the traditional stochastic approach thereby, reducing uncertainty on storage estimates corresponding to higher reliabilities. Potential strategies for improving future streamflow projections and its utility in reservoir sizing and capacity expansion projects are also discussed.  相似文献   

Temporal and spatial variation of soil erosion in wooded rangelands of southwest Spain     

Judit Rubio-Delgado  Susanne Schnabel  Álvaro Gómez-Gutiérrez  Joaquín Francisco Lavado-Contador 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(11):2141-2155

Changes in land use are common in Mediterranean areas and are reported as having produced changes in the intensity of soil erosion. Dehesas are rangelands with a disperse tree cover, widespread in the south-western part of the Iberian Peninsula and similar ecosystems are also common in other areas with a Mediterranean climate. The aim of the present study is to analyse temporal and spatial variations of soil erosion rates estimated along three hillsides, located in two farms (Buitrera and Parapuños) in southwest Spain. To understand the temporal variation, soil erosion rates were studied in light of land use-management changes that took place during the last few centuries. Results indicate very low erosion rates prior to the 18^th century in both farms. In Buitrera, a first increase of soil loss rates was identified during the period 1831-1897, amounting to 7.4 t ha^-1 y^-1. A further increase took place during the 20^th century, reaching a mean erosion rate of 29.1 t ha^-1 y^-1. In Parapuños, data points to a significant increase from 1881 onwards, with an estimated mean erosion rate of 18.5 t ha^-1 y^-1. Those increases were presumably connected with an intensification of land use, such as cultivation and excessive livestock populations. Regarding spatial variation, the bare surface and the erosive power of run-off along the hillsides accounts for 76% of the soil erosion rates dispersion. At a local scale, the variability of erosion rates could not be explained, because of (i) uncertainty related to the micromorphology of the past soil surface and (ii) the role of tillage erosion in the past. However, the results obtained offer valuable data on the temporal and spatial variation of erosion rates in dehesas at the hillslope scale and a similar approach could be used for other rangelands with a disperse tree cover. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A method for checking the quality of geographic metadata based on ISO 19157     

Manuel Antonio Ureña-Cámara  Javier Lacasta  Francisco Javier Ariza-López 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(1):1-27

With recent advances in remote sensing, location-based services and other related technologies, the production of geospatial information has exponentially increased in the last decades. Furthermore, to facilitate discovery and efficient access to such information, spatial data infrastructures were promoted and standardized, with a consideration that metadata are essential to describing data and services. Standardization bodies such as the International Organization for Standardization have defined well-known metadata models such as ISO 19115. However, current metadata assets exhibit heterogeneous quality levels because they are created by different producers with different perspectives. To address quality-related concerns, several initiatives attempted to define a common framework and test the suitability of metadata through automatic controls. Nevertheless, these controls are focused on interoperability by testing the format of metadata and a set of controlled elements. In this paper, we propose a methodology of testing the quality of metadata by considering aspects other than interoperability. The proposal adapts ISO 19157 to the metadata case and has been applied to a corpus of the Spanish Spatial Data Infrastructure. The results demonstrate that our quality check helps determine different types of errors for all metadata elements and can be almost completely automated to enhance the significance of metadata.  相似文献   

Characterization of Frequency and Aggregation of the Antarctic Krill (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Euphausia superba</Emphasis>) Using Acoustics     

Seok-Gwan?Choi  Eun-A?Yoon  Doo-Hae?An  Sangdeuk?Chung  Jaebong?Lee  Kyounghoon?LeeEmail author 《Ocean Science Journal》2018,53(4):667-677

In this study, the dB difference and characteristics of krill swarms inhabiting Subarea 48.1, which includes the west and south of the South Shetland Island and the Elephant Island peripheries, were estimated to distinguish Antarctic krill, using acoustics. From April 13 to 24, 2016, acoustic data were collected along 24 survey lines using the frequencies 38 and 120 kHz, and middle trawling was performed at 7 stations. Using the difference between the dB values of two volume backscattering strength (Sv) frequencies (38 and 120 kHz), a clear acoustic distinction could be made between Antarctic krill (4.9 to 12.0 dB) and fish (?4.0 to ?0.2 dB). The distributions and mean Sv of krill swarms in the Elephant Island peripheries and south of South Shetland Island were higher than those in the west of South Shetland Island. The mean length/ height ratio of krill swarms in the west of the South Shetland Island (64.5) was higher than that in the south (35.9) and the Elephant Island peripheries (33.8), with the length of the aggregations exceeding their height. Most krill swarms were distributed between the surface layer (less than 10 m below sea level) and within 200 m of water depth. These results are expected to serve as baseline data for evaluating krill density and biomass by distinguishing them from fish, using acoustics.  相似文献   

Assessing conservation practices in Amalacaxco Gorge (Izta-Popo National Park,Central Mexico) using fallout ~(137)Cs and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL)     

MU?OZ-SALINAS E  CASTILLO M 《山地科学学报》2018,(3)

This study aims to assess conservation practices in Izta-Popo National Park(Central Mexico) by evaluating the mechanisms of sediment transfer. We applied a methodology based on fallout ~(137)Cs and optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) analysis. This was tested in the upper catchment of Amalacaxco Gorge, selected for being one of the sectors of the park in which man-made actions have been implemented in last decades to favor forest growth in the alpine grassland and to reduce the effect of water runoff. We quantified the ~(137)Cs activity using gamma and beta spectrometry of fine sediment grains extracted from the surface of parcels of 0.4 m2 in areas of natural forest, natural alpine grassland, alpine grassland with conservation practices, ravines and trails. In general, ~(137)Cs values increases as local slope decreases as it was expected. The natural forest is the most stable area in terms of soil erosion and sediment accumulation and, mean ~(137)Cs activity was taken as reference to assess cumulative zones, with higher ~(137)Cs values and erosive, with lower. We found that trails are accumulative surfaces but in other areas, erosion predominates. Man-made ditches, trenches and afforestation in the alpine grassland have higher ~(137)Cs values than thenatural grassland, which indicates that conservation practices are limiting the sediment transfer from hillslopes to channels, however, soil retention is less than in the natural grassland. Additionally, we evaluated the luminescence(OSL) values obtained from samples extracted from the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into different sectors of the study area to assess the grade of resetting of fluvial materials. These luminescence results indicated that the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into the natural forest and alpine grassland is bleached more efficiently than the sediment transported in the alpine grassland with conservation practices. Results of fallout ~(137)Cs and luminescence strongly suggest that man-made actions in this part of the Izta-Popo National Park are dramatically modifying the natural mechanisms of sediment transfer and favoring soil erosion. We conclude that made ditches, trenches and afforestation are not an effective conservation practice in Amalacaxco Gorge because they are promoting soil erosion instead of reducing it.  相似文献   

Ranking of Placer Gold Prospects in Chile Through Analytic Hierarchy Process     

Jara  J. Joaquín  Moreno  Francisco  Jara  Raúl  Dubournais  Francisco  Mata  Rodrigo  Peters  David  Marquardt  Carlos  Lagos  Gustavo 《Natural Resources Research》2019,28(3):813-832

Chile has a rich, but poorly known history of placer gold mining. At present, this sector is almost nonexistent and there are some restrictions for its revival: disperse and partial information on existing resources and limited technical expertise to assess the potential of placer gold mine sites. This paper presents the background, methodology and results of the prioritization process of known prospects of this kind in Chile. This research was part of a publicly funded project aimed to incentivize the development of this industry. The ranking was carried out using the analytic hierarchy process, which allowed to include different quantitative and qualitative variables related to the economic potential, technical aspects, contextual viability and socioeconomic factors in the analysis. The results show that, despite the increasing relevance of environmental and community issues in mining development, the business potential and the economic/technical aspects are the main factors in the early selection of a site to advance in exploration and development activities. Both variables represented around 40% and 37% of weights in the final selection, respectively. In contrast, contextual viability and local socioeconomic impacts only accounted for the remaining 23%. This study also shows that the inclusion of experts with different backgrounds in the process enriches the analysis and does not significantly distort the final outcome of the prioritization. Finally, the relevance of using MCDM tools when assessing the attractiveness of mine sites for their development is highlighted, particularly when public funds for subsequent exploration activities are committed.

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准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲优质储集层预测          下载免费PDF全文

桑林翔  刘军  王贵文  王苏天  李全  张云龙 《古地理学报》2020,22(6):1053-1064

针对准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡风南地区三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲砂岩物性空间变化大、优质储集层(孔隙度大于7.4%,渗透率大于0.05×10^-3μm²)预测难的问题,在沉积岩石学、地震沉积学以及地震反演和解释理论指导下,综合利用测井、岩心和三维地震等资料开展了高精度层序地层划分、沉积微相描述和优质储集层地震反演研究。建立了风南井区四级层序地层格架,明确了扇三角洲多期水进水退的充填过程,指出SSQ3和SSQ5是优质储集层的发育层系;识别出扇三角洲平原分流河道、河道间和扇三角洲前缘水下分流水道、河口坝、席状砂等沉积微相,指出扇三角洲平原是优质储集层发育相带;通过应用高分辨层序地层纵向边界和沉积相横向边界约束,进行分层相控叠后地震波阻抗反演,提升储集层预测精度,在SSQ3和SSQ5预测5个优质储集层发育区,提出3口井的井位建议,钻探均获工业油流。  相似文献   

Analysis of seafloor backscatter strength dependence on the survey azimuth using multibeam echosounder data     

Xavier?LurtonEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Dimitrios?Eleftherakis  Jean-Marie?Augustin 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2018,39(1-2):183-203

The sediment backscatter strength measured by multibeam echosounders is a key feature for seafloor mapping either qualitative (image mosaics) or quantitative (extraction of classifying features). An important phenomenon, often underestimated, is the dependence of the backscatter level on the azimuth angle imposed by the survey line directions: strong level differences at varying azimuth can be observed in case of organized roughness of the seabed, usually caused by tide currents over sandy sediments. This paper presents a number of experimental results obtained from shallow-water cruises using a 300-kHz multibeam echosounder and specially dedicated to the study of this azimuthal effect, with a specific configuration of the survey strategy involving a systematic coverage of reference areas following “compass rose” patterns. The results show for some areas a very strong dependence of the backscatter level, up to about 10-dB differences at intermediate oblique angles, although the presence of these ripples cannot be observed directly—neither from the bathymetry data nor from the sonar image, due to the insufficient resolution capability of the sonar. An elementary modeling of backscattering from rippled interfaces explains and comforts these observations. The consequences of this backscatter dependence upon survey azimuth on the current strategies of backscatter data acquisition and exploitation are discussed.  相似文献   

Rare earth elements and yttrium in ferromanganese deposits from the South China Sea: distribution, composition and resource considerations     

ZHONG Yi  CHEN Zhong  GONZALEZ Francisco Javier  ZHENG Xufeng  LI Gang  LUO Yun  MO Aibin  XU Antao  WANG Shuhong 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(7):41-54

Ferromanganese nodules and crusts contain relatively high concentration of rare earth elements(REE) and yttrium(REY),with a growing interest in exploitation as an alternative to land-based REY resources.On the basis of comprehensive geochemical approach,the abundance and distribution of REY in the ferromanganese nodules from the South China Sea are analyzed.The results indicate that the REY contents in ferromanganese deposits show a clear geographic regularity.Total REY contents range from 69.1×10~(–6) to 2 919.4×10~(–6),with an average value of 1 459.5×10~(–6).Especially,the enrichment rate of Ce content is high,accounting for almost 60% of the total REY.This REE enrichment is controlled mainly by the sorption of ferromanganese oxides and clay minerals in the nodules and crusts.Moreover,the total REY are higher in ferromanganese deposits of hydrogenous origin than of diagenetic origin.Finally,Light REE(LREE) and heavy REE(HREE) oxides of the ferromanganese deposits in the study area can be classified into four grades: non-enriched type,weakly enriched type,enriched type,and extremely enriched type.According to the classification criteria of rare earth resources,the Xisha and Zhongsha platform-central deep basin areas show a great potential for these rare earth metals.  相似文献   

New age constraints on the western Betic intramontane basins: A late Tortonian closure of the Guadalhorce Corridor?          下载免费PDF全文

Marlies van der Schee  Bas C. J. van den Berg  Walter Capella  Dirk Simon  Francisco J. Sierro  Wout Krijgsman 《地学学报》2018,30(5):325-332

Several gateways connected the Mediterranean with the Atlantic during the late Miocene but the timing of closure and therefore their role prior to and during the Messinian Salinity Crisis (5.97–5.33 Ma) is still under debate. The timing of closure of the Guadalhorce Corridor is especially disputed as the common lack of marine microfossils hampers precise age determination. Here we present new biostratigraphic age constraints on the sediments of the Ronda, Antequera and Arcos regions, which formed the northern part of the Guadalhorce Corridor. The general presence of Globorotalia menardii 4 in the youngest deep‐marine sediments of all three regions indicates a late Tortonian age, older than 7.51 Ma. We conclude that the Guadalhorce Corridor closed during the late Tortonian, well before the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis and that the late Tortonian tectonic uplift of the eastern Betics extended into the western Betics.  相似文献