How Much Physiology is Needed in Forest Gap Models for Simulating Long-Term Vegetation Response to Global Change?     

Harald Bugmann  James F. Reynolds  Louis F. Pitelka 《Climatic change》2001,51(3-4):249-250

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Growth, survival, diet, and on-growing husbandry of haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus in tanks and netpens     

Treasurer  James W.; Sveier  Harald; Harvey  Warren; Allen  Roddy; Cutts  Christopher J.; Mazorra de Quero  Carlos; Ford  Leslie 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(2):376-384

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Estimation of irrigation flow by hydrograph analysis in a complex agricultural catchment in subtropical China     

Jia‐Liang Tang  Bin Zhang  Harald Zepp 《水文研究》2007,21(10):1280-1288

Estimating the amount of irrigation water is challenging at the catchment scale because of the difficulties in direct measurement and interactions between the flow components. The objectives of the study were to characterize the catchment flows in an agricultural catchment with an irrigation system in subtropical China and to estimate catchment irrigation flow using hydrograph analysis methods. A weighting model and multiple regression models were established to estimate catchment irrigation outflow according to the hydrographs of the inflows and outflows of the catchment. The multiple regression models took into consideration the drainage time of base flow, resulting in better estimation on an event and annual basis. Using the MR‐6d method, the estimated irrigation outflows amounted to 3700 mm, 2600 mm and 2760 mm during 2001, 2002 and 2003 respectively, which covered 70%, 60% and 64% respectively of the total catchment outflows in the corresponding years. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical Analysis of the 650,000 m<Superscript>2</Superscript> Åknes Rock Slope based on Measured Displacements and Geotechnical Data     

Vidar Kveldsvik  Herbert H. Einstein  Bjørn Nilsen  Lars Harald Blikra 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2009,42(5):689-728

The unstable 650,000 m² Åknes rock slope (Western Norway) poses a hazard, as a sudden failure may cause a destructive tsunami in the fjord. In this study the slope was divided into blocks based on displacements measured at the slope surface. Discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) showed that three or four blocks in the upper half may be considered as potential subareas that may fail catastrophically. The lower half may be divided into two or three blocks, but more limited data introduces more uncertainty into block definition. The Universal Distinct Element code (UDEC) was used for two-dimensional (2D) stability analyses. By varying fracture geometry, fracture friction, and groundwater conditions within reasonable limits based on site-specific data a number of possible models were compared. The conclusions show that models that were unstable to great depths were in closer agreement with shear strength parameters derived from an earlier study than models that were unstable to smaller depths. The length (depth) of the outcropping fracture, along which shear displacements are shown to occur, plays an important role. A (shallow) slide at 30 m, in which displacements have been documented by borehole measurements, will reduce the stability at greater depths. Increased groundwater pressure is demonstrated to be less critical for very deep slope instability. The results of the DDA and UDEC modelling will be useful for planning of future investigations, interpretation of the subsequent results, further development of the early warning system and in the tsunami modelling.  相似文献   

Probability distributions for maximum wave and crest heights     

Marc Prevosto  Harald E. Krogstad  Agns Robin 《Coastal Engineering》2000,40(4)

The paper discusses short- and long-term probability models of ocean waves. The Gaussian theory is reviewed, and nonlinear short-term probability distributions are derived from a narrow band second-order model. The nonlinearity has different impact on different measurement techniques, and this is further demonstrated for wave data from the WAVEMOD Crete measurement campaign and laser data from the North Sea. Finally, we give some examples on how the short-term statistics may be used to estimate the probability distributions for the maximum waves during individual storms as well as in a wave climate described by long-term distributions.  相似文献   

Banded structure of drifting macroalgae   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Fangli Qiao  Dejun Dai  John Simpson  Harald Svendsen 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(12):1792-1795

A massive bloom of macroalgae occurred in the western Yellow Sea at the end of May, 2008, and lasted for nearly 2 months. The surface-drifting macroalgae was observed to accumulate in a pattern dominated by linear bands. The maximum length of individual algal bands exceeded 10 km and the distance between neighboring bands ranged from hundreds of meters to 6 km. Seven satellite images were analyzed to determine the distances between neighboring bands. Proportions of about 24%, 38%, and 22% are responsible for the separation distances smaller than 1 km, between 1 and 2 km, and between 2 and 3 km, respectively. The separation of about five percent of the bands exceeds 4 km. The probability distribution of the separation distance is quite close to log-normal which is that found in Langmuir circulation. However, the observed algal band separation greatly exceeds the distances between convergence lines reported in Langmuir circulation.  相似文献   

A method for the regional estimation of runoff separation parameters for hydrological modelling     

Harald Kling  Hans Peter Nachtnebel 《Journal of Hydrology》2009,364(1-2):163-174

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Scaling Issues in Forest Succession Modelling   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Harald Bugmann  Marcus Lindner  Petra Lasch  Michael Flechsig  Beatrix Ebert  Wolfgang Cramer 《Climatic change》2000,44(3):265-289

This paper reviews scaling issues in forest succession modelling, focusing on forest gap models. Two modes of scaling are distinguished: (1) implicit scaling, i.e. taking scale-dependent features into account while developing model equations, and (2) explicit scaling, i.e. using procedures that typically involve numerical simulation to scale up the response of a local model in space and/or time. Special attention is paid to spatial upscaling methods, and downscaling is covered with respect to deriving scenarios of climatic change to drive gap models in impact assessments. When examining the equations used to represent ecological processes in forest gap models, it becomes evident that implicit scaling is relevant, but has not always been fully taken into consideration. A categorization from the literature is used to distinguish four methods for explicit upscaling of ecological models in space: (1) Lumping, (2) Direct extrapolation, (3) Extrapolation by expected value, and (4) Explicit integration. Examples from gap model studies are used to elaborate the potential and limitations of these methods, showing that upscaling to areas as large as 3000 km² is possible, given that there are no significant disturbances such as fires or insect outbreaks at the landscape scale. Regarding temporal upscaling, we find that it is important to consider migrational lags, i.e. limited availability of propagules, if one wants to assess the transient behaviour of forests in a changing climate, specifically with respect to carbon storage and the associated feedbacks to the atmospheric CO₂ content. Regarding downscaling, the ecological effects of different climate scenarios for the year 2100 were compared at a range of sites in central Europe. The derivation of the scenarios is based on (1) imposing GCM grid-cell average changes of temperature and precipitation on the local weather records; (2) a qualitative downscaling technique applied by the IPCC for central and southern Europe; and (3) statistical downscaling relating large-scale circulation patterns to local weather records. Widely different forest compositions may be obtained depending on the local climate scenario, suggesting that the downscaling issue is quite important for assessments of the ecological impacts of climatic change on forests.  相似文献   

Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Maxime Souvignet  Patrick Laux  Jim Freer  Hannah Cloke  Dang Quang Thinh  Tran Thuc  Johannes Cullmann  Alexandra Nauditt  Wolfgang‐Albert Flügel  Harald Kunstmann  Lars Ribbe 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1587-1601

In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non‐parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Simulation of moisture content in alpine rockwalls during freeze–thaw events          下载免费PDF全文

Matthias Rode  Harald Schnepfleitner  Oliver Sass 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(13):1937-1950

Rock moisture during freeze–thaw events is a key factor for frost weathering. Data on moisture levels of natural rockwalls are scarce and difficult to obtain. To close this gap, we can benefit from the extensive knowledge of moisture‐related phenomena in building materials, which is incorporated into simulation software, for example the WUFI® package of the Fraunhofer Institute of Building Physics. In this paper we applied and adapted this type of simulation to natural rockwalls to gain new insights on which moisture‐related weathering mechanisms may be important under which conditions. We collected the required input data on physical rock properties and local climate for two study areas in the eastern European Alps with different elevation [Sonnblick, 3106 m above sea level (a.s.l.) and Johnsbach, 700 m a.s.l.] and different lithologies (gneiss and dolomite, respectively). From this data, moisture profiles with depth and fluctuations in the course of a typical year were calculated. The results were cross‐checked with different thermal conditions for frost weathering reported in the literature (volumetric expansion and ice segregation theories). The analyses show that in both study areas the thresholds for frost cracking by volumetric expansion of ice (90% pore saturation, temperature < ?1 °C) are hardly ever reached (in one year only 0.07% of the time in Johnsbach and 0.4% at Sonnblick, mostly in north‐exposed walls). The preconditions for weathering by ice segregation (?3 to ?8 °C, > 60% saturation) prevail over much longer periods; the time spent within this ‘frost cracking window‘ is also higher for north‐facing sites. The influence of current climate warming will reduce effective frost events towards 2100; however the increase of liquid precipitation and rock moisture will promote weathering processes like ice segregation at least at the Sonnblick site. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献