龙门山断裂带上“破裂空段”的发震概率研究     

宋金  蒋海昆  孟令媛  臧阳 《中国地震》2017,33(2):219-228

本文采用分层粘弹性介质模型计算了汶川地震对芦山震中产生的库仑应力加载的影响,进而结合Dieterich(1994)提出的速率状态摩擦定律给出芦山附近区域6级地震累积发震概率随时间的变化。结果显示,2013年芦山7.0级地震时其累积发震概率达18%,说明汶川地震产生的应力扰动加速了芦山地震的发生。本文还计算了汶川、芦山2次地震对其间"破裂空段"处产生的累积库仑应力扰动的影响,结合背景地震发生率,给出了"破裂空段"处6级地震累积发震概率变化。虽然计算结果可能受到大邑地震、介质模型参数的选取和背景地震发生概率等因素影响而存在一定误差,但"破裂空段"在2次强震应力加载下累积发震概率是不断增大的,因此我们认为"破裂空段"处发生中强地震的紧迫性不断增强。  相似文献   

2017年8月8日九寨沟MS7.0地震序列分析     

臧阳  孟令媛  周龙泉  韩颜颜  宫悦 《中国地震》2017,33(4):480-492

2017年8月8日四川九寨沟发生M_S7.0地震,该地震发生在巴颜喀喇块体的东北边界,震中区域构造条件复杂,是巴颜喀喇块体北侧左旋走滑环境向东侧逆冲挤压环境过渡的位置,附近地区历史强震较多。九寨沟地震是一次主-余型地震,余震活动水平较弱,主震发生后短时间内M_L≥4.0余震的“等待时间”存在异常,震后较长时间余震活动恢复到正常状态,序列h值、余震视应力等符合主-余型序列特征。序列b值为0.84,G-R关系推测序列最大余震的震级约为M_L5.4（M_S5.0）,8月9日发生的M_S4.8地震是目前该序列的最强余震。通过与1970年以来附近地区7级左右地震序列的对比认为,九寨沟地震与1976年松潘-平武2次7.2级地震序列在余震空间位置、发震构造和震源机制等方面存在较大差异,因此,不具备发育为震群型序列的条件。九寨沟地震主震视应力为0.36～0.38MPa,属于应力下调模型,序列余震的平均视应力水平接近龙门山断裂带附近中小地震的平均背景水平。  相似文献   

Numerical Analysis of Groundwater Ridging Processes Considering Water‐Air Flow in a Hillslope          下载免费PDF全文

Yong Ge Zang  Dong Mei Sun  Ping Feng  Stephan Semprich 《Ground water》2018,56(4):594-609

In this study, a water‐air two‐phase flow model was employed to investigate the formation, extension, and dissipation of groundwater ridging induced by recharge events in a hypothetical hillslope‐riparian zone, considering interactions between the liquid and gas phases in soil voids. The simulation results show that, after a rain begins, the groundwater table near the stream is elevated instantaneously and significantly, thereby generating a pressure gradient driving water toward both the stream (the discharge of groundwater to the stream) and upslope (the extension of groundwater ridging into upslope). Meanwhile, the airflow upslope triggered by the advancing wetting front moves downward gradually. Therefore, the extension of groundwater ridging into upslope and the downward airflow interact within a certain region. After the rain stops, groundwater ridging near the stream declines quickly while the airflow in the lower part of upslope is still moving into the hillslope. Thus, the airflow upslope mitigates the dissipation of groundwater ridging. Additionally, the development of groundwater ridging under different conditions, including rain intensity, intrinsic permeability, capillary fringe height, and initial groundwater table, was analyzed. Changes in intrinsic permeability affect the magnitude of groundwater ridging near the stream, as well as the downward speed of airflow, thereby generating highly complex responses. The capillary fringe is not a controlling factor but an influence factor on the formation of groundwater ridging, which is mainly related to the antecedent moisture. It was demonstrated that groundwater ridging also occurs where an unsaturated zone occurs above the capillary fringe with a subsurface lateral flow.  相似文献   

Soil erosion rates assessed by RUSLE and PESERA for a Chinese Loess Plateau catchment under land-cover changes     

Pengfei Li  Yuzhe Zang  Doudou Ma  Wanqiang Yao  Joseph Holden  Brian Irvine  Guangju Zhao 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(3):707-722

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Numerical Study of Tide-Induced Airflow and Salt–Fresh Water Dynamics in Unconfined Aquifers     

Yong G. Zang  Dong M. Sun  Ping Feng 《Ground water》2020,58(4):535-549

This study employed a coupled water-air two-phase flow and salt water transport model to analyze the behaviors of generated airflow in unsaturated zones and the fluctuations of salinity at the salt–fresh water interface in a two-layered unconfined aquifer with a sloping beach surface subjected to tidal oscillations. The simulation results show that as the new dynamic steady state including effects of tidal fluctuations is reached through multiple tidal cycles, the dispersion zone in the lower salt water wedge is broadened because fresh water/salt water therein flows continuously landward or seaward during tidal cycles. The upper salt–fresh water interface exhibits more vulnerable to the tidal fluctuations, and the variation of salinity therein is periodic, which is irrelevant to the hydraulic head but is influenced by the direction and velocity of surrounding water-flow. With the tidal level fluctuating, airflow is mainly concentrated in the lower permeable layer due to the restraint of the upper semi-permeable layer, and the time-lag between the pore-air pressure and the tidal level increases with distance from the coastline. The effect of airflow in unsaturated zones can be transmitted downward, causing both the magnitude of salinity and its amplitude in the upper salt–fresh water interface to be smaller for the case with airflow than without airflow due to the resistance of airflow to water-flow. Sensitivity analysis reveal that distributions of airflow in unsaturated zones are affected by the permeability of the upper/lower layer and the van Genuchten parameter of the lower layer, not by the van Genuchten parameter of the upper layer, whereas the salinity fluctuations in the salt–fresh water interface are affected only by soil parameters of the lower layer.  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究     

邓世广  周龙泉  马亚伟  臧阳  王月  韩颜颜 《中国地震》2019,35(1):1-13

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。  相似文献   

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for a size-resolved aerosol model: Implementation and application for particulate matter and gaseous pollutant forecasts across China     

Wang  Daichun  You  Wei  Zang  Zengliang  Pan  Xiaobin  He  Hongrang  Liang  Yanfei 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2020,63(9):1366-1380

A three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation(DA) system is presented here based on a size-resolved sectional aerosol model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry(MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model. The use of this approach means that both gaseous pollutants such as SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 as well as particulate matter(PM_(2.5), PM_(10)) observational data can be assimilated simultaneously.Two one-month parallel simulation experiments were conducted, one with the assimilation of surface hourly concentration observations of the above six pollutants released by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre(CNEMC) and one without assimilation in order to verify the impact of assimilation on initial chemical fields and subsequent forecasts. Results show that, in the first place, use of the DA system can provide a more accurate model initial field. The root-mean-square error of PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 mass concentrations in analysis field fell by 29.27 μg m~(-3)(53.5%), 34.5 μg m~(-3)(50.9%),30.36 μg m~(-3)(64.2%), 8.91 μg m~(-3)(39.5%), 0.46 mg m~(-3)(47.4%), and 15.11 μg m~(-3)(51.0%), respectively, compared to a background field without assimilation. At the same time, mean fraction error was reduced by 42.6%, 53.1%, 45.2%, 43.1%,69.9%, and 48.8%, respectively, while the correlation coefficient increased by 0.51, 0.55, 0.48, 0.38, 0.47, 0.65, respectively.Secondly, the results of this analysis reveal variable benefits from assimilation on different pollutants. DA significantly improves PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and CO forecasts leading to positive effects that last more than 48 h. The positive effects of DA on SO_2 and O_3 forecasts last up to 8 h but that remains relatively poor for NO_2 forecasts. Thirdly, the influence of assimilation varies in different areas. It is possible that the positive effects of DA on PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) forecasts can last more than 48 h across most regions of China. Indeed, DA significantly improves SO_2 forecasts within 48 h over north China, and much longer CO assimilation benefits(48 h) are found in most regions apart from north and east China and across the Sichuan Basin. DA is able to improve O_3 forecasts within 48 h across China with the exception of southwest and northwest regions and the O_3 DA benefits in southern China are more evident, while from a spatial distribution perspective, NO_2 DA benefits remain relatively poor.  相似文献   

高温加速度传感器关键技术研究     

丁莉莎  朱小毅  薛兵  李建飞  张金川  臧宾 《地震地磁观测与研究》2014,35(5)

为了满足深井和核电站强震动观测需求,研制一种能在100℃ 130℃环境下有效连续工作的力平衡反馈加速度计,并重新设计其电路方案,主要利用高温分立元件重新设计检波及前后级放大电路,并对其余电路进行升级改造.样机实验结果表明:设计方案满足要求,具有一定的实用性.  相似文献   

Modeling urban land use conversion of Daqing City,China: a comparative analysis of “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Wenliang Li  Changshan Wu  Shuying Zang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(4):817-828

During the past decades, Daqing City, China has experienced unprecedented urban expansion due to the rapid development of petroleum industry. With rapid urbanization and lack of strategic planning, Daqing is facing many socio-economic and environmental problems, and it is essential to examine the process of urbanization, and to develop policy recommendations for sustainable development. To address this problem, this paper examined the urbanization process of Daqing City through developing two multi-level models: an integrated system dynamic (SD) and CLUE-S model (SD-CLUES), and an integrated SD and stochastic cellular automata model (SD-CA). Analysis of results suggests that these two models generate significantly different results. With the SD-CLUES model, new urban developments are clustered in the downtown area or along major transportation networks, indicating exogenous driving forces playing an important role in shaping urban spatial dynamics. With the SD-CA model, on the contrary, the resultant new urban cells are spread over the entire study area, and associated with existing urban areas. Further, visual comparisons and validations indicate that the SD-CA model is a better alternative in explaining the urbanization mechanism of Daqing City. In addition, analysis of results suggests that the stochastic factor in the CA model has significant impact on the modeling accuracy.  相似文献   

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling     

Amir Hossein Hakimhashemi  Jeoung Seok Yoon  Oliver Heidbach  Arno Zang  Gottfried Grünthal 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):671-680

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.  相似文献