On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction     

Joëlle Gergis  Ailie Jane Eyre Gallant  Karl Braganza  David John Karoly  Kathryn Allen  Louise Cullen  Rosanne D’Arrigo  Ian Goodwin  Pauline Grierson  Shayne McGregor 《Climatic change》2012,111(3-4):923-944

This study presents the first multi-proxy reconstruction of rainfall variability from the mid-latitude region of south-eastern Australia (SEA). A skilful rainfall reconstruction for the 1783–1988 period was possible using twelve annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from the Australasian region. An innovative Monte Carlo calibration and verification technique is introduced to provide the robust uncertainty estimates needed for reliable climate reconstructions. Our ensemble median reconstruction captures 33% of inter-annual and 72% of decadal variations in instrumental SEA rainfall observations. We investigate the stability of regional SEA rainfall with large-scale circulation associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the past 206 years. We find evidence for a robust relationship with high SEA rainfall, ENSO and the IPO over the 1840–1988 period. These relationships break down in the late 18th–early 19th century, coinciding with a known period of equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling during one of the most severe periods of the Little Ice Age. In comparison to a markedly wetter late 18th/early 19th century containing 75% of sustained wet years, 70% of all reconstructed sustained dry years in SEA occur during the 20th century. In the context of the rainfall estimates introduced here, there is a 97.1% probability that the decadal rainfall anomaly recorded during the 1998–2008 ‘Big Dry’ is the worst experienced since the first European settlement of Australia.  相似文献   

Nitrous oxide emissions from gasohol, ethanol and CNG light duty vehicles     

Vanderlei Borsari  Jo?o Vicente de Assun??o 《Climatic change》2012,111(3-4):519-531

A sample of 21 light duty vehicles powered by Otto cycle engines were tested on a chassis dynamometer to measure the exhaust emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O). The tests were performed at the Vehicle Emission Laboratory of CETESB (Environmental Company of the State of Sao Paulo) using the US-FTP-75 (Federal Test Procedure) driving cycle. The sample tested included passenger cars running on three types of fuels used in Brazil: gasohol, ethanol and CNG. The measurement of N₂O was made using two methods: Non Dispersive InfraRed (NDIR) analyzer and Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy (FTIR). Measurements of regulated pollutants were also made in order to establish correlations between N₂O and NO_x. The average N₂O emission factors obtained by the NDIR method was 78?±?41?mg.km^?1 for vehicles running with gasohol, 73?±?45?mg.km^?1 for ethanol vehicles and 171?±?69?mg.km^?1 for CNG vehicles. Seventeen results using the FTIR method were also obtained. For gasohol vehicles the results showed a good agreement between the two methods, with an average emission factor of 68?±?41?mg.km^?1. The FTIR measurement results of N₂O for ethanol and CNG vehicles were much lower than those obtained by the NDIR method. The emission factors were 17?±?10?mg.km^?1 and 33?±?17?mg.km^?1, respectively, possibly because of the interference of water vapor (present at a higher concentration in the exhaust gases of these vehicles) on measurements by the NDIR method.  相似文献   

The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe     

Christian Pfister  Emmanuel Garnier  Maria-João Alcoforado  Dennis Wheeler  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria Fatima Nunes  João Paulo Taborda 《Climatic change》2010,101(1-2):281-310

Three violent eighteenth-century storms that ravaged the North Sea area (1703), western central Europe (1739) and Portugal (1739) are investigated from the point of view of their meteorological setting, their socio-economic impact, and whether and by what means they secured an enduring place in the cultural memory. The evidence draws on individual narrative sources such as chronicles and poems, and institutional sources such as ship’s logbooks and state-organised ‘windthrow’ inventories of tree loss. Each of the three storms had socio-economic impacts that could be described as ‘war-like’ in the damage caused to buildings and the destruction of forests. The “Great Storm” of December 1703 jeopardized English naval supremacy in the War of the Spanish Succession by sinking a number of Royal Navy ships and taking the life of more than 8000 seamen. In January 1739 two similarly destructive storms swept over mainland Europe. The cultural memory of the three events here considered was however strikingly different. The sequence of storms in January 1739 though being the most protracted of the last centuries, and well-chroniceled, did not persist in the collective memories of those in France, Switzerland and elsewhere who experienced them. Likewise, the “Great Storm” was quickly forgotten on the continent, whereas its memory remained deeply rooted in England through the writings of Defoe (1704). In Portugal the 1739 storm won a lasting place in the country’s cultural memory owing to two poems that it inspired. Furthermore, it was recorded in the Kingdom’s official newspaper, in the astronomical prognoses and in written records of the Old Regime’s cultural elite.  相似文献   

A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joëlle L. Gergis  Anthony M. Fowler 《Climatic change》2009,92(3-4):343-387

Reconstructions of past climate are important for providing a historical context for evaluating the nature of 20th century climate change. Here, a number of percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A total of 92 (82) El Niño (La Niña) events were reconstructed since A.D. 1525. Significantly, we introduce the most comprehensive La Niña event record compiled to date. This annual record of ENSO events can now be used for independent verification of climate model simulations, reconstructions of ENSO indices and as a chronological control for archaeologists/social scientists interested in human responses to past climate events. Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO reconstruction, approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events (i.e. both El Niño and La Niña phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states. As evidence of stresses on water supply, agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority.  相似文献   

Model-based remote sensing algorithms for particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico     

Young Baek Son  Wilford D. Gardner  Alexey V. Mishonov  Mary Jo Richardson 《Journal of Earth System Science》2009,118(1):1-10

Hydrographic data, including particulate organic carbon (POC) from the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (NEGOM) study, were combined with remotely-sensed SeaWiFS data to estimate POC concentration using principal component analysis (PCA). The spectral radiance was extracted at each NEGOM station, digitized, and averaged. The mean value and spurious trends were removed from each spectrum. De-trended data included six wavelengths at 58 stations. The correlation between the weighting factors of the first six eigenvectors and POC concentration were applied using multiple linear regression. PCA algorithms based on the first three, four, and five modes accounted for 90, 95, and 98% of total variance and yielded significant correlations with POC with R ² = 0.89, 0.92, and 0.93. These full waveband approaches provided robust estimates of POC in various water types. Three different analyses (root mean square error, mean ratio and standard deviation) showed similar error estimates, and suggest that spectral variations in the modes defined by just the first four characteristic vectors are closely correlated with POC concentration, resulting in only negligible loss of spectral information from additional modes. The use of POC algorithms greatly increases the spatial and temporal resolution for interpreting POC cycling and can be extrapolated throughout and perhaps beyond the area of shipboard sampling.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen exchange in an upwelling reach of a groundwater-fed river and potential response to perturbations changing rainfall patterns under UK climate change scenarios     

Ann Louise Heathwaite  Catherine Heppell  Andrew Binley  Patrick Byrne  Katrina Lansdown  Mark Trimmer  Sami Ullah  Hao Zhang 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14135

We report the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of hyporheic exchange flows (HEFs) and nitrogen exchange in an upwelling reach of a 200 m groundwater-fed river. We show how research combining hydrological measurement, geophysics and isotopes, together with nutrient speciation techniques provides insight on nitrogen pathways and transformations that could not have been captured otherwise, including a zone of vertical preferential discharge of nitrate from deeper groundwater, and a zone of rapid denitrification linking the floodplain with the riverbed. Nitrate attenuation in the reach is dominated by denitrification but is spatially highly variable. This variability is driven by groundwater flow pathways and landscape setting, which influences hyporheic flow, residence time and nitrate removal. We observed the spatial connectivity of the river to the riparian zone is important because zones of horizontal preferential discharge supply organic matter from the floodplain and create anoxic riverbed conditions with overlapping zones of nitrification potential and denitrification activity that peaked 10–20 cm below the riverbed. Our data also show that temporal variability in water pathways in the reach is driven by changes in stage of the order of tens of centimetres and by strength of water flux, which may influence the depth of delivery of dissolved organic carbon. The temporal variability is sensitive to changes to river flows under UK climate projections that anticipate a 14%–15% increase in regional median winter rainfall and a 14%–19% reduction in summer rainfall. Superimposed on seasonal projections is more intensive storm activity that will likely lead to a more dynamic and inherently complex (hydrologically and biogeochemically) hyporheic zone. We recorded direct evidence of suppression of upwelling groundwater (flow reversal) during rainfall events. Such flow reversal may fuel riverbed sediments whereby delivery of organic carbon to depth, and higher denitrification rates in HEFs might act in concert to make nitrate removal in the riverbed more efficient.  相似文献   

Is the soil moisture precipitation feedback enhanced by heterogeneity and dry soils? A comparative study     

Maximilian Graf  Joël Arnault  Benjamin Fersch  Harald Kunstmann 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14332

The interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere is a crucial driver of atmospheric processes. Soil moisture and precipitation are key components in this feedback. Both variables are intertwined in a cycle, that is, the soil moisture – precipitation feedback for which involved processes and interactions are still discussed. In this study the soil moisture – precipitation feedback is compared for the sempiternal humid Ammer catchment in Southern Germany and for the semiarid to subhumid Sissili catchment in West Africa during the warm season, using precipitation datasets from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), from the German Weather Service (REGNIE) and simulation datasets from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the hydrologically enhanced WRF-Hydro model. WRF and WRF-Hydro differ by their representation of terrestrial water flow. With this setup we want to investigate the strength, sign and variables involved in the soil moisture – precipitation feedback for these two regions. The normalized model spread between the two simulation results shows linkages between precipitation variability and diagnostic variables surface fluxes, moisture flux convergence above the surface and convective available potential energy in both study regions. The soil moisture – precipitation feedback is evaluated with a classification of soil moisture spatial heterogeneity based on the strength of the soil moisture gradients. This allows us to assess the impact of soil moisture anomalies on surface fluxes, moisture flux convergence, convective available potential energy and precipitation. In both regions the amount of precipitation generally increases with soil moisture spatial heterogeneity. For the Ammer region the soil moisture – precipitation feedback has a weak negative sign with more rain near drier patches while it has a positive signal for the Sissili region with more rain over wetter patches. At least for the observed moderate soil moisture values and the spatial scale of the Ammer region, the spatial variability of soil moisture is more important for surface-atmosphere interactions than the actual soil moisture content. Overall, we found that soil moisture heterogeneity can greatly affect the soil moisture – precipitation feedback.  相似文献   

Role of reservoir regulation and groundwater feedback in a simulated ground-soil-vegetation continuum: A long-term regional scale analysis     

Jianhui Wei  Ningpeng Dong  Benjamin Fersch  Joël Arnault  Sven Wagner  Patrick Laux  Zhenyu Zhang  Qianya Yang  Chuanguo Yang  Shasha Shang  Lu Gao  Zhongbo Yu  Harald Kunstmann 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14341

The regional terrestrial water cycle is strongly altered by human activities. Among them, reservoir regulation is a way to spatially and temporally allocate water resources in a basin for multi-purposes. However, it is still not sufficiently understood how reservoir regulation modifies the regional terrestrial- and subsequently, the atmospheric water cycle. To address this question, the representation of reservoir regulation into the terrestrial component of fully coupled regional Earth system models is required. In this study, an existing process-based reservoir network module is implemented into NOAH-HMS, that is, the terrestrial component of an atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system, namely, the WRF-HMS. It allows to quantitatively differentiate role of reservoir regulation and of groundwater feedback in a simulated ground-soil-vegetation continuum. Our study focuses on the Poyang Lake basin, where the largest freshwater lake of China and reservoirs of different sizes are located. As compared to streamflow observations, the newly extended NOAH-HMS slightly improves the streamflow and streamflow duration curves simulation for the Poyang Lake basin for the period 1979–1986. The inclusion of reservoir regulation leads to major changes in the simulated groundwater recharges and evaporation from reservoirs at local scale, but has minor effects on the simulated soil moisture and surface runoff at basin scale. The performed groundwater feedback sensitivity analysis shows that the strength of the groundwater feedback is not altered by the consideration of reservoir regulation. Furthermore, both reservoir regulation and groundwater feedback modify the partitioning of the simulated evapotranspiration, thus affecting the atmospheric water cycle in the Poyang Lake region. This finding motivates future research with our extended fully coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system by the community.  相似文献   

Using micro-catchment experiments for multi-local scale modelling of nature-based solutions     

Barry Hankin  Trevor J. C. Page  Nick A. Chappell  Keith J. Beven  Paul J. Smith  Ann Kretzschmar  Rob Lamb 《水文研究》2021,35(11):e14418

The Q-natural flood management project has co-developed with the Environment Agency 18 monitored micro-catchments (~1 km²) in Cumbria, UK installing calibrated flumes aimed at quantifying the potential shift in observed flows resulting from a range of nature-based-solutions installed by local organizations. The small-scale reduces the influence of variability characterizing larger catchments that would otherwise mask any such shifts, which we attempt to relate to a shift in model parameters. This paper demonstrates an approach to applying donor-parameter-shifts obtained from modelling two of the paired micro-catchments to a much larger scale, in order to understand the potential for improved distributed modelling of nature-based solutions in the form of additional tree-planting. The models include a rainfall-runoff model, Dynamic Topmodel, and a 2D hydrodynamic model, JFlow, permitting analysis of changes in hillslope processes and channel hydrodynamics resulting from a range of distributed measures designed to emulate natural hydrological processes that evaporate, store or infiltrate flows. We report on attempts to detect shift in hydrological response using one of the paired-micro-catchment moorland versus forestry sites in Lorton using Dynamic Topmodel. A donor-parameter-shift approach is used in a hypothetical experiment to represent new woodland in a much larger catchment, although testing all combinations of spatial planting strategies, responses to multiple-extremes, failure-modes and changes to synchronization becomes intractable to support good decision making. We argue that the problem can be re-framed to use donor-parameter-shifts at multi-local-scale catchments above communities known to be at risk, commensurate with most of the evidence of NbS impacts being effective at the small scale (ca. 10 km²). This might lead to more effective modelling to help catchment managers prioritize those communities-at-risk where there is more evidence that NbS might be effective.  相似文献   

Developing Governance Principles for Public Natural Resources     

Darragh Hare  Ann B. Forstchen  Christian A. Smith  Daniel J. Decker 《社会与自然资源》2018,31(3):382-388

Wildlife governance principles (WGPs) identify desirable governance characteristics for wildlife conservation in the United States (US). The types of institutional, ecological, and socio-cultural challenges that WGPs are designed to address also affect governance of public natural resources other than wildlife and in places other than the US. This raises the possibility that a similar set of governance principles might help natural resource professionals working in other resource contexts address the particular challenges they face. We describe the process by which we developed WGPs and offer seven practically oriented questions to help natural resource professionals ascertain whether a similar set of principles could improve governance in their context. In some contexts, minor modification of WGPs might be appropriate; in others, the process by which we developed WGPs could serve as a blueprint for formulating appropriate principles.  相似文献