History of scoria-cone eruptions on the eastern shoulder of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift revealed in the 250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro     

Catherine Martin-Jones  Christine Lane  Maarten Van Daele  Thijs Van Der Meeren  Christian Wolff  Heather Moorhouse  Emma Tomlinson  Dirk Verschuren 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(1-2):245-255

Reconstructions of the timing and frequency of past eruptions are important to assess the propensity for future volcanic activity, yet in volcanic areas such as the East African Rift only piecemeal eruption histories exist. Understanding the volcanic history of scoria-cone fields, where eruptions are often infrequent and deposits strongly weathered, is particularly challenging. Here we reconstruct a history of volcanism from scoria cones situated along the eastern shoulders of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift, using a sequence of tephra (volcanic ash) layers preserved in the ~250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro. Seven visible and two non-visible (crypto-) tephra layers in the Lake Chala sequence are attributed to activity from the Mt Kilimanjaro (northern Tanzania) and the Chyulu Hills (southern Kenya) volcanic fields, on the basis of their glass chemistry, textural characteristics and known eruption chronology. The Lake Chala record of eruptions from scoria cones in the Chyulu Hills volcanic field confirms geological and historical evidence of its recent activity, and provides first-order age estimates for seven previously unknown eruptions. Long and well-resolved sedimentary records such as that of Lake Chala have significant potential for resolving regional eruption chronologies spanning hundreds of thousands of years.  相似文献   

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Keith E. Schilling  Philip W. Gassman  Catherine L. Kling  Todd Campbell  Manoj K. Jha  Calvin F. Wolter  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3314-3325

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates          下载免费PDF全文

Michael J. Hollaway  Keith J. Beven  Clare Mc W. H. Benskin  Adrian L. Collins  Robert Evans  Peter D. Falloon  Kirsty J. Forber  Kevin M. Hiscock  Ron Kahana  Christopher J. A. Macleod  Mary C. Ockenden  Martha L. Villamizar  Catherine Wearing  Paul J. A. Withers  Jian G. Zhou  Nicholas J. Barber  Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.  相似文献   

The recognition of former melt flux through high‐strain zones          下载免费PDF全文

Catherine A. Stuart  Sandra Piazolo  Nathan R. Daczko 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2018,36(8):1049-1069

High‐strain zones are potential pathways of melt migration through the crust. However, the identification of melt‐present high‐strain deformation is commonly limited to cases where the interpreted volume of melt “frozen” within the high‐strain zone is high (>10%). In this contribution, we examine high‐strain zones in the Pembroke Granulite, an otherwise low‐strain outcrop of volcanic arc lower crust exposed in Fiordland, New Zealand. These high‐strain zones display compositional layering, flaser‐shaped mineral grains, and closely spaced foliation planes indicative of high‐strain deformation. Asymmetric leucosome surrounding peritectic garnet grains suggest deformation was synchronous with minor amounts of in situ partial melting. High‐strain zones lack typical mylonite microstructures and instead display typical equilibrium microstructures, such as straight grain boundaries, 120° triple junctions, and subhedral grain shapes. We identify five key microstructures indicative of the former presence of melt within the high‐strain zones: (a) small dihedral angles of interstitial phases; (b) elongate interstitial grains; (c) small aggregates of quartz grains with xenomorphic plagioclase grains connected in three dimensions; (d) fine‐grained, K‐feldspar bearing, multiphase aggregates with or without augite rims; and (e) mm‐ to cm‐scale felsic dykelets. Preservation of key microstructures indicates that deformation ceased as conditions crossed the solidus, breaking the positive feedback loop between deformation and the presence of melt. We propose that microstructures indicative of the former presence of melt, such as the five identified above, may be used as a tool for recognising rocks formed during melt‐present high‐strain deformation where low (<5%) volumes of leucosome are “frozen” within the high‐strain zone.  相似文献   

Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019     

Lim  Eun-Pa  Hendon  Harry H.  Shi  Li  de Burgh-Day  Catherine  Hudson  Debra  King  Andrew  Trewin  Blair  Griffiths  Morwenna  Marshall  Andrew 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3625-3641

We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (T_min) that occurred across northern and eastern Australia in September 2019. Historically, reduced T_min is related to the occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and central Pacific El Niño. Positive IOD events tend to locate an anomalous anticyclone over the Great Australian Bight, therefore inducing cold advection across eastern Australia. Positive IOD and central Pacific El Niño also reduce cloud cover over northern and eastern Australia, thus enhancing radiative cooling at night-time. During September 2019, the IOD and central Pacific El Niño were strongly positive, and so the observed T_min anomalies are well reconstructed based on their historical relationships with the IOD and central Pacific El Niño. This implies that September 2019 T_min anomalies should have been predictable at least 1–2 months in advance. However, even at zero lead time the Bureau of Metereorolgy ACCESS-S1 seasonal prediction model failed to predict the anomalous anticyclone in the Bight and the cold anomalies in the east. Analysis of hindcasts for 1990–2012 indicates that the model's teleconnections from the IOD are systematically weaker than the observed, which likely stems from mean state biases in sea surface temperature and rainfall in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Together with this weak IOD teleconnection, forecasts for earlier-than-observed onset of the negative Southern Annular Mode following the strong polar stratospheric warming that occurred in late August 2019 may have contributed to the T_min forecast bust over Australia for September 2019.

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Transitional impact craters on the Moon: Insight into the effect of target lithology on the impact cratering process     

Gordon R. Osinski  Elizabeth A. Silber  Jacqueline Clayton  Richard A. F. Grieve  Kayle Hansen  Catherine L. Johnson  Jessica Kalynn  Livio L. Tornabene 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(3):573-591

We studied a data set of 28 well‐preserved lunar craters in the transitional (simple‐to‐complex) regime with the aim of investigating the underlying cause(s) for morphological differences of these craters in mare versus highland terrains. These transitional craters range from 15 to 42 km in diameter, demonstrating that the transition from simple to complex craters is not abrupt and occurs over a broad diameter range. We examined and measured the following crater attributes: depth (d), diameter (D), floor diameter (D_f), rim height (h), and wall width (w), as well as the number and onset of terraces and rock slides. The number of terraces increases with increasing crater size and, in general, mare craters possess more terraces than highland craters of the same diameter. There are also clear differences in the d/D ratio of mare versus highland craters, with transitional craters in mare targets being noticeably shallower than similarly sized highland craters. We propose that layering in mare targets is a major driver for these differences. Layering provides pre‐existing planes of weakness that facilitate crater collapse, thus explaining the overall shallower depths of mare craters and the onset of crater collapse (i.e., the transition from simple to complex crater morphology) at smaller diameters as compared to highland craters. This suggests that layering and its interplay with target strength and porosity may play a more significant role than previously considered.  相似文献   

Verification of short-term runoff forecasts for a small Philippine basin (Marikina)     

David Kneis  Catherine Abon  Axel Bronstert  Maik Heistermann 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(2):205-216

Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380 km²). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3 hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a “no-forecast” scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties.  相似文献   

Titanite dates crystallization: Slow Pb diffusion during super‐solidus re‐equilibration     

Michael I. H. Hartnady  Christopher L. Kirkland  Chris Clark  Catherine V. Spaggiari  R. Hugh Smithies  Noreen J. Evans  Brad J. McDonald 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2019,37(6):823-838

Titanite can be found in rocks of wide compositional range, is reactive, growing or regrowing during metamorphic and hydrothermal events, and is generally amenable to U–Pb geochronology. Experimental evidence suggest that titanite has a closure temperature for Pb ranging from 550 to 650°C, and thus titanite dates are commonly interpreted as cooling ages. However, this view has been challenged in recent years by evidence from natural titanite which suggests the closure temperature may be significantly higher (up to 800°C). Here, we investigate titanite in an enclave of migmatitic gneiss included within a granite intrusion. The titanite crystals exhibit textural features characteristic of fluid‐mediated mass transfer processes on length scales of <100 µm. These textural features are associated with variation in both Pb concentrations and distinct U–Pb isotopic compositions. Zr‐in‐titanite thermometry indicates that modification of the titanite occurred at temperatures in excess of 840°C, in the presence of a high‐T silicate melt. The Pb concentration gradients preserved in these titanite crystals are used to determine the diffusivity of Pb in titanite under high‐T conditions. We estimate diffusivities ranging from 2 × 10^?22 to 5 × 10^?25 m²/s. These results are significantly lower than experimental data predict yet are consistent with other empirical data on natural titanites, suggesting that Pb diffusivity is similar to that of Sr. Thus our data challenge the wide‐held assumption that U–Pb titanite dates only reflect cooling ages.  相似文献   

Moisture budget analysis of SST-driven decadal Sahel precipitation variability in the twentieth century     

Catherine Pomposi  Yochanan Kushnir  Alessandra Giannini 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(11-12):3303-3321

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Erratum to: Physics and Chemistry of Minerals Special Issue “Perovskite: A tribute to Roger H. Mitchell”     

Catherine McCammon 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(6):485-485

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