On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change     

Ruiz-Salcines  Pablo  Appendini  Christian M.  Salles  Paulo  Rey  Wilmer  Vigh  Jonathan L. 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(1):431-459

Natural Hazards - This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of...  相似文献   

Late Pleistocene baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) forest deposit on the continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico     

Kristine L. Delong  Suyapa Gonzalez  Jeffrey B. Obelcz  Jonathan T. Truong  Samuel J. Bentley Sr  Kehui Xu  Carl A. Reese  Grant L. Harley  Alicia Caporaso  Zhixiong Shen  Beth A. Middleton 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2021,50(3):871-892

Approximately 13 km south of Gulf Shores, Alabama (United States), divers found in situ baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) stumps 18 m below the ocean surface. These trees could have only lived when sea level fell during the Pleistocene subaerially exposing the tectonically stable continental shelf. Here we investigate the geophysical properties along with microfossil and stratigraphical analyses of sediment cores to understand the factors that lead to this wood’s preservation. The stumps are exposed in an elongated depression (~100 m long, ~1 m deep) nested in a trough of the northwest–southeast trending Holocene sand ridges and troughs with 2–5 m vertical relief and ~0.5 km wavelength. Radiocarbon ages of the wood were infinite thus optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was used to constrain the site’s age. Below the Holocene sands (~0.1–4 m thick), separated by a regional erosional unconformity, are Late Pleistocene mud-peat (72±8 ka OSL), mud-sand (63±5, 73±6 ka OSL), and palaeosol (56±5 ka OSL) facies that grade laterally from west to east, respectively. Foraminiferal analysis reveals the location of the terrestrial-marine transitional layer above the Pleistocene facies in an interbedded sand and mud facies (3940±30 (1σ) ¹⁴C a BP), which is part of a lower shoreface or marine-dominated estuarine environment. The occurrence of palaeosol and swamp facies of broadly similar ages and elevation suggests the glacial landscape possessed topographic relief that allowed wood, mud and peats to be preserved for ~50 ka of subaerial exposure before transitioning to the modern marine environment. We hypothesize that rapid sea-level rise occurring ~60 or ~40 ka ago provided opportunities for local flood-plain aggradation to bury the swamp thus preserving the stumps and that other sites may exist in the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf.  相似文献   

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA     

Reid  Mark E.  Godt  Jonathan W.  LaHusen  Richard G.  Slaughter  Stephen L.  Badger  Thomas C.  Collins  Brian D.  Schulz  William H.  Baum  Rex L.  Coe  Jeffrey A.  Harp  Edwin L.  Schmidt  Kevin M.  Iverson  Richard M.  Smith  Joel B.  Haugerud  Ralph A.  George  David L. 《Landslides》2021,18(9):2993-3009

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

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A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections     

Robinson  Bethany  Herman  Jonathan D. 《Climatic change》2019,152(3-4):431-448

Climatic Change - Recent water resources planning studies have proposed climate adaptation strategies in which infrastructure and policy actions are triggered by observed thresholds or...  相似文献   

Long-term effects of a toxic algal bloom on subtidal soft-sediment macroinvertebrate communities in Wellington Harbour, New Zealand   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Kerstin Krger  Jonathan P.A. Gardner  Ashley A. Rowden  Robert G. Wear 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2006,67(4):589-604

The long-term effects (>1 year) of a naturally occurring toxic plankton bloom (Karenia brevisulcata) on subtidal benthic macroinvertebrate communities were investigated in Wellington Harbour, a semi-enclosed temperate embayment in New Zealand. For 3 years communities were sampled at three different sites in the harbour. Analyses revealed that community recovery following the bloom was site-specific. Multivariate analyses indicated that at one site community composition was approaching recovery 3 years post-bloom. At the second site, a sequential recovery process was indicated, whereas at the third site the community composition oscillated from year to year, but did not show any signs of a sequential recovery process. The nature of the hydrodynamic regime was identified as a major factor influencing the observed recovery processes. Communities exposed to an active hydrodynamic regime were less affected by the bloom and differed little in their composition pre- and post-bloom, as they were naturally in a perpetual state of recovery as indicated by a dominance of r-selected species. The community at the hydrodynamically less active site was more affected by the bloom and exhibited temporal differences in composition consistent with successional models. Complete recovery to a pre-disturbance climax community dominated by K-selected species is likely to take 4–5 years, if not interrupted by other disturbances. Given the increased occurrence of harmful algal blooms worldwide, more monitoring and manipulative studies are needed to further evaluate the effects of such disturbances on macrobenthic communities.  相似文献   

Jenniferann.com,regional development,and realising the aspirations of mana whenua in Pōkeno     

John Ryks  Jonathan Kilgour  Jesse Whitehead  Amy Whetu  James Whetu 《New Zealand geographer》2019,75(3):152-162

During the 1990s, the township of Pōkeno was held up as an example of a declining rural Aotearoa/New Zealand. By‐passed from the national state highway, it lost its status as a service hub and drastic measures were introduced to revitalise the town, including renaming the town “ Jenniferann.com .” Pōkeno has since undergone an unlikely transformation, with foreign investment and its location within an extended Auckland commuter zone meaning that the township has grown exponentially. This article describes the transformation of Pōkeno and uncovers what has been missing from discussions about Pōkeno's reinvention, namely, the place of mana whenua.  相似文献   

Inter-season and interannual variations in fish and macrocrustacean community structure on a eastern English Channel sandy beach: Influence of environmental factors     

Jonathan Selleslagh  Rachid Amara 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,77(4):721-730

The intertidal zone of an exposed sandy beach on the French coast of the English Channel was sampled with a 1.5 m beam-trawl over five years (2000 and 2003–2006) at weekly intervals. The fish and macrocrustacean catches were analysed to determine the inter-season and interannual variation in community structure and relate these variations to changes in the major environmental variables. Only six species (plaice Pleuronectes platessa, common goby Pomatoschistus microps, sprat Sprattus sprattus, sand eel Ammodytes tobianus, brown shrimp Crangon crangon and shore crab Carcinus maenas) from the 27 species captured can be considered as dominant species of the intertidal zone, and they accounted for >90% of total numbers. Most individuals caught were young-of-the-year or juvenile. Analysis of similarities (ANOSIM) and similarities percentage (SIMPER) indicated that inter-season variability of community structure (mean average similarity = 47%) was more pronounced than interannual variability (mean average similarity = 65%). Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) indicates that a substantial component (32.2%) of the measured inter-season variation in community structure can be explained by environmental factors (mainly water temperature). The main inter-season changes in the abundance and community structure were due to the variation of the six key species and reflect the different times of their recruitment. During the five years of the study, the structure of the fish and macrocrustacean spring community persisted from year to year, with the dominant species reappearing consistently even though their abundances fluctuated from year to year. This interannual variation probably reflects variable recruitment success influenced by physico-chemical conditions. In spite of the considerable interannual variation (40 times) in the spring bloom of the prymnesiophyte alga Phaeocystis globosa we found no effect of this bloom on either fish and macrocrustacean species densities or diversity index.  相似文献   

A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Bernard A. Megrey  Jonathan A. Hare  William T. Stockhausen  Are Dommasnes  Harald Gjster  William Overholtz  Sarah Gaichas  Georg Skaret  Jannike Falk-Petersen  Jason S. Link  Kevin D. Friedland 《Progress in Oceanography》2009,81(1-4):63

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.  相似文献   

Creating an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum from a giant impact     

Bryant M. Wyatt  Jonathan M. Petz  William J. Sumpter  Ty R. Turner  Edward L. Smith  Baylor G. Fain  Taylor J. Hutyra  Scott A. Cook  John H. Gresham  Michael F. Hibbs  Shaukat N. Goderya 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2018,39(2):26

The giant impact hypothesis is the dominant theory explaining the formation of our Moon. However, the inability to produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum has cast a shadow on its validity. Computer-generated impacts have been successful in producing virtual systems that possess many of the observed physical properties. However, addressing the isotopic similarities between the Earth and Moon coupled with correct angular momentum has proven to be challenging. Equilibration and evection resonance have been proposed as means of reconciling the models. In the summer of 2013, the Royal Society called a meeting solely to discuss the formation of the Moon. In this meeting, evection resonance and equilibration were both questioned as viable means of removing the deficiencies from giant impact models. The main concerns were that models were multi-staged and too complex. We present here initial impact conditions that produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum. This is done in a single-staged simulation. The initial parameters are straightforward and the results evolve solely from the impact. This was accomplished by colliding two roughly half-Earth-sized impactors, rotating in approximately the same plane in a high-energy, off-centered impact, where both impactors spin into the collision.  相似文献   

Multibeam sonar backscatter data processing     

Alexandre C. G. Schimel  Jonathan Beaudoin  Iain M. Parnum  Tim Le Bas  Val Schmidt  Gordon Keith  Daniel Ierodiaconou 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2018,39(1-2):121-137

Multibeam sonar systems now routinely record seafloor backscatter data, which are processed into backscatter mosaics and angular responses, both of which can assist in identifying seafloor types and morphology. Those data products are obtained from the multibeam sonar raw data files through a sequence of data processing stages that follows a basic plan, but the implementation of which varies greatly between sonar systems and software. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of this backscatter data processing chain, with a focus on the variability in the possible implementation of each processing stage. Our objective for undertaking this task is twofold: (1) to provide an overview of backscatter data processing for the consideration of the general user and (2) to provide suggestions to multibeam sonar manufacturers, software providers and the operators of these systems and software for eventually reducing the lack of control, uncertainty and variability associated with current data processing implementations and the resulting backscatter data products. One such suggestion is the adoption of a nomenclature for increasingly refined levels of processing, akin to the nomenclature adopted for satellite remote-sensing data deliverables.  相似文献