Towards more systematic perceptual model development: a case study using 3 Luxembourgish catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Sebastian Wrede  Fabrizio Fenicia  Núria Martínez‐Carreras  Jérôme Juilleret  Christophe Hissler  Andreas Krein  Hubert H. G. Savenije  Stefan Uhlenbrook  Dmitri Kavetski  Laurent Pfister 《水文研究》2015,29(12):2731-2750

The synthesis of experimental understanding of catchment behaviour and its translation into qualitative perceptual models is an important objective of hydrological sciences. We explore this challenge by examining the cumulative understanding of the hydrology of three experimental catchments and how it evolves through the application of different investigation techniques. The case study considers the Huewelerbach, Weierbach and Wollefsbach headwater catchments of the Attert basin in Luxembourg. Subsurface investigations including bore holes and pits, analysis of soil samples and Electrical Resistivity Tomography measurements are presented and discussed. Streamflow and tracer data are used to gain further insights into the streamflow dynamics of the catchments, using end‐member mixing analysis and hydrograph separation based on dissolved silica and electrical conductivity. We show that the streamflow generating processes in all three catchments are controlled primarily by the subsolum and underlying bedrock. In the Huewelerbach, the permeable sandstone formation supports a stable groundwater component with little seasonality, which reaches the stream through a series of sources at the contact zone with the impermeable marls formation. In the Weierbach, the schist formation is relatively impermeable and supports a ‘fill and spill’‐type of flow mechanism; during wet conditions, it produces a delayed response dominated by pre‐event water. In the Wollefsbach, the impermeable marls formation is responsible for a saturation‐excess runoff generating process, producing a fast and highly seasonal response dominated by event water. The distinct streamflow generating processes of the three catchments are represented qualitatively using perceptual models. The perceptual models are in turn translated into quantitative conceptual models, which simulate the hydrological processes using networks of connected reservoirs and transfer functions. More generally, the paper illustrates the evolution of perceptual models based on experimental fieldwork data, the translation of perceptual models into conceptual models and the value of different types of data for processes understanding and model representation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Magma mixing induced by particle settling     

Christian J. Renggli  Sebastian Wiesmaier  Cristina P. De Campos  Kai-Uwe Hess  Donald B. Dingwell 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,171(11):96

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Converting heterogeneous complex geological models to consistent finite element models: methods,development, and application to deep geothermal reservoir operation     

Bo Wang  Sebastian Bauer 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(20):1349

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Upward brine migration resulting from pressure increases in a layered subsurface system     

Jens-Olaf Delfs  Johannes Nordbeck  Sebastian Bauer 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(22):1441

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Volcanos and El Niño: signal separation in Northern Hemisphere winter     

Ingo Kirchner  Hans-F. Graf 《Climate Dynamics》1995,11(6):341-358

The frequent coincidence of volcanic forcing with El Niño events disables the clear assignment of climate anomalies to either volcanic or El Niño forcing. In order to select the signals, a set of four different perpetual January GCM experiments was performed (control, volcano case, El Niño case and combined volcano/El Niño case) and studied with advanced statistical methods for the Northern Hemisphere winter. The results were compared with observations. The signals for the different forcings are discussed for three variables (temperature, zonal wind and geopotential height) and five levels (surface, 850 hPa, 500 hPa, 200 hPa and 50 hPa). The global El Niño signal can be selected more clearly in the troposphere than in the stratosphere. In contrast, the global volcano signal is strongest in the stratospheric temperature field. The amplitude of the perturbation for the volcano case is largest in the Atlantic region. The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland are well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is weak in high latitudes during winter. A statistically significant tropospheric signal of El Niño forcing occurs in the subtropics and in the midlatitudes of the North Pacific. The local anomalies in the El Niño forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combined signal is different from a simple linear combination of the separate signals. It leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Niño or stratospheric aerosol alone and to a somewhat modified pattern.  相似文献   

The Application of Petroleum Hydrocarbon Fingerprint Characterization in Site Investigation and Remediation     

Dawn A. Zemo  James E. Bruya  Tom E. Graf 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1995,15(2):147-156

Tremendous resources have been and continue to be spent investigating and remediating petroleum hydrocarbon compounds (PHCs) in soil and ground water. Investigating and planning a remedial strategy for sites affected by PHCs is often a challenging task because of the complex chemical nature of the PHCs. the complex regulatory environment related to PHC cleanup, and the use of analytical methods that provide quantitation but not identification of PHCs. From a technical standpoint, the PHC impacting soil and/or ground water is frequently inadequately characterised, both in identification as well as in is general properties (solubility, toxicity). From a regulatory standpoint, promulgated or recommended total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) cleanup levels generally relate to assumed properties of specific unweathered products and are inconsistent among different agencies and regions. This produces a prime situation for unwillingly spending more resources on investigation or remediation than may be necessary, especially when the PHC in the subsurface has different properties from unweathered products such as gasoline or diesel.
Accurately identifying the PHC and its nature, a process known as fingerprint characterization, is critical to the determination of appropriate regulatory goals and design of cost-effective remedial approaches. This paper presents several case studies in which fingerprint characterization made a significant difference in the project outcome. In each instance the nature of the organic material was better understood, the regulatory cleanup levels were negotiated based on the nature of the material, and a remedial approach was implemented that differed significantly from and was generally less costly than what would have been required without fingerprint characterization data.  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Licia Faenza  Sebastian Hainzl  Frank Scherbaum  Céline Beauval 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(2):797-806

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.  相似文献   

Graben width controlling syn-rift sedimentation: the Palaeogene southern Upper Rhine Graben as an example     

Sebastian Hinsken  Kamil Ustaszewski  Andreas Wetzel 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2007,96(6):979-1002

Eocene to Early Oligocene syn-rift deposits of the southern Upper Rhine Graben (URG) accumulated in restricted environments. Sedimentation was controlled by local clastic supply from the graben flanks, as well as by strong intra-basinal variations in accommodation space due to differential tectonic subsidence, that in turn led to pronounced lateral variations in depositional environment. Three large-scale cycles of intensified evaporite sedimentation were interrupted by temporary changes towards brackish or freshwater conditions. They form three major base level cycles that can be traced throughout the basin, each of them representing a stratigraphic sub-unit. A relatively constant amount of horizontal extension (ΔL) in the range of 4–5 km has been estimated for the URG from numerous cross-sections. The width of the rift (L _f ), however, varies between 35 and more than 60 km, resulting in a variable crustal stretching factor between the bounding masterfaults. Apart from block tilting, tectonic subsidence was, therefore, largely controlled by changes in the initial rift width (L ₀). The along-strike variations of the graben width are responsible for the development of a deep, trough-like evaporite basin (Potash Basin) in the narrowest part of the southern URG, adjacent to shallow areas in the wider parts of the rift such as the Colmar Swell in the north and the Rhine Bresse Transfer Zone that delimits the URG to the south. Under a constant amount of extension, the along-strike variation in rift width is the principal factor controlling depo-centre development in extensional basins.  相似文献   

New insights into the P- and S-wave velocity structure of the D" discontinuity beneath the Cocos plate     

Tadashi Kito  Sebastian Rost  Christine Thomas  Edward J. Garnero 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,169(2):631-645

Broad-band P - and S -waves from earthquakes in South America recorded at Californian network stations are analysed to image lateral variations of the D"-discontinuity beneath the Cocos plate. We apply two array processing methods to the data set: a simplified migration method to the P -wave data set and a double-array method to both the P - and S -wave data sets, allowing us to compare results from the two methods. The double-array method images a dipping reflector at a depth range from 2650 to 2700 km in the southern part of the study area. We observe a step-like topography of 100 km to a shallower reflector at about 2600 km depth to the north, as well as evidence for a second (deeper) reflector at a depth range from 2700 to 2750 km in the north. Results from the simplified migration agree well with those from the double-array method, similarly locating a large step in reflector depth in a similar location (about 2650 km depth in the south and about 2550 km in the north) as well as the additional deeper reflector at the depth of about 2750 km in the north. Waveform modelling of the reflected waves from both methods suggests a positive velocity contrast for S waves, but a negative velocity contrast for P waves for the upper reflector in agreement with predictions from mineral physical calculations for a post-perovskite phase transition. The data also show some evidence for the existence of another deeper reflector that could indicate a double intersection of the geotherm with the post-perovskite stability field, that is, the back-transformation of post-perovskite to perovskite close to the core–mantle boundary.  相似文献   

The variability of the horizontal circulation in the troposphere and stratosphere – a comparison     

J. Perlwitz  H.-F. Graf 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2001,69(3-4):149-161

Summary The variability of the horizontal circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is compared by using various approaches. Spatial degrees of freedom (dof) on different time scales were derived. Modes of variability were computed in geopotential height fields at the tropospheric and stratospheric pressure levels by applying multivariate statistical approaches. Features of the spatial and temporal variability of the winterly zonal wind were studied with the help of recurrence and persistence analyses. The geopotential height and zonally-averaged zonal wind at the 50-, 500- and 1000-hPa level are used to investigate the behavior of the horizontal circulation in the lower stratosphere, mid-troposphere and at the near surface level, respectively. It is illustrated that the features of the variability of the horizontal circulation are very similar in the mid-troposphere and at the near surface level. Due to the filtering of tropospheric disturbances by the stratospheric and upper tropospheric zonal mean flow, the variability of the stratospheric circulation exhibits less spatial complexity than the circulation at tropospheric pressure levels. There exist enormous differences in the number of degrees of freedom (or free variability modes) between both atmospheric layers. Results of the analyses clearly show that the concept of a zonally symmetric AO with a simple structure in the troposphere similar to the one in the stratosphere is not valid. It is concluded that the spatially filtered climate change signal can be detected earlier in the stratosphere than in the mid-troposphere or at the near surface level. Received June 28, 2000/Revised March 10, 2001  相似文献