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31.
HASSET: a probability event tree tool to evaluate future volcanic scenarios using Bayesian inference
Event tree structures constitute one of the most useful and necessary tools in modern volcanology for assessment of hazards from future volcanic scenarios (those that culminate in an eruptive event as well as those that do not). They are particularly relevant for evaluation of long- and short-term probabilities of occurrence of possible volcanic scenarios and their potential impacts on urbanized areas. In this paper, we introduce Hazard Assessment Event Tree (HASSET), a probability tool, built on an event tree structure that uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability of occurrence of a future volcanic scenario and to evaluate the most relevant sources of uncertainty from the corresponding volcanic system. HASSET includes hazard assessment of noneruptive and nonmagmatic volcanic scenarios, that is, episodes of unrest that do not evolve into volcanic eruption but have an associated volcanic hazard (e.g., sector collapse and phreatic explosion), as well as unrest episodes triggered by external triggers rather than the magmatic system alone. Additionally, HASSET introduces the Delta method to assess precision of the probability estimates, by reporting a 1 standard deviation variability interval around the expected value for each scenario. HASSET is presented as a free software package in the form of a plug-in for the open source geographic information system Quantum Gis (QGIS), providing a graphically supported computation of the event tree structure in an interactive and user-friendly way. We also include further in-depth explanations for each node together with an application of HASSET to Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain). 相似文献
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Stefania Gorbi David Pellegrini Sara Tedesco Francesco Regoli 《Marine environmental research》2004,58(2-5):293
Although elasmobranchs are widely distributed species, commonly found on sandy, gravely or muddy bottoms, several biological aspects of their metabolism still remain poorly investigated. In this work the efficiency of antioxidant system and detoxification enzymes were investigated in the coastal spotted dogfish Scyliorhinus canicula and in the red mullet Mullus barbatus for comparison with a teleost species.Organisms were sampled during a bottom trawl survey and analyzed for the biotransformation activity (EROD), levels of metallothioneins, catalase, glutathione S-transferases and total oxyradical scavenging capacity (TOSC) toward peroxyl radicals and hydroxyl radicals.EROD activity in the elasmobranchs was more than one order of magnitude lower than in the red mullets, while similar levels of metallothioneins were measured in these species. S. canicula showed significantly lower antioxidant enzymes and a more reduced efficiency in neutralizing √OH; on the other hand the scavenging capability toward ROO√ was comparable in S. canicula and M. barbatus. 相似文献
34.
Induction of cytochrome P4501A in fish is a well-known indicator of exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and determination of PAH metabolites in bile by fixed wavelength fluorescence (FF) or synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS), has become an useful method in monitoring programs. In this work the relationship between cytochrome P4501A (EROD activity) and levels of biliary PAH metabolites was measured in the European eel Anguilla anguilla, in both field and laboratory conditions: organisms were sampled on a seasonal basis from the Orbetello lagoon (Tuscany) to characterize the natural variability of these biological parameters, while in laboratory eels were intraperitoneally injected with benzo[a]pyrene to investigate temporal and dose-dependent induction patterns. Results showed that induction of cytochrome P450 and accumulation of PAHs metabolites in bile are not necessarily correlated either in field, or in laboratory investigations; different seasonal changes were measured in natural conditions and slight variations in dose and time response patterns were also obtained in laboratory exposures. 相似文献
35.
Induction of cytochrome P4501A in fish is a well-known indicator of exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and determination of PAH metabolites in bile by fixed wavelength fluorescence (FF) or synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS), has become an useful method in monitoring programs. In this work the relationship between cytochrome P4501A (EROD activity) and levels of biliary PAH metabolites was measured in the European eel Anguilla anguilla, in both field and laboratory conditions: organisms were sampled on a seasonal basis from the Orbetello lagoon (Tuscany) to characterize the natural variability of these biological parameters, while in laboratory eels were intraperitoneally injected with benzo[a]pyrene to investigate temporal and dose-dependent induction patterns. Results showed that induction of cytochrome P450 and accumulation of PAHs metabolites in bile are not necessarily correlated either in field, or in laboratory investigations; different seasonal changes were measured in natural conditions and slight variations in dose and time response patterns were also obtained in laboratory exposures. 相似文献
36.
Stefania Sica George Mylonakis Armando Lucio Simonelli 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2011
The dynamic response of piles to seismic loading is explored by means of an extensive parametric study based on a properly calibrated Beam-on-Dynamic-Winkler-Foundation (BDWF) model. The investigated problem consists of a single vertical cylindrical pile, modelled as an Euler–Bernoulli beam, embedded in a subsoil consisting of two homogeneous viscoelastic layers of sharply different stiffness resting on a rigid stratum. The system is subjected to vertically propagating seismic S waves, in the form of a transient motion imposed on rock outcrop. Several accelerograms recorded in Italy are employed as input motions in the numerical analyses. The paper highlights the severity of kinematic pile bending in the vicinity of the interface separating the two soil layers. In addition to factors already investigated such as layer stiffness contrast, relative soil–pile stiffness, interface depth and intensity of ground excitation, the paper focuses on additional important factors, notably soil material damping, stiffness of Winkler springs and frequency content of earthquake excitation. Existing predictive equations for assessing kinematic pile bending at soil layer interfaces are revisited and new regression analyses are performed. A synthesis of findings in terms of a set of simple equations is provided. The use of these equations is discussed through examples. 相似文献
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In the geotechnical field, the risk related to slope instabilities or collapse of geotechnical structures are increasingly being faced by early warning systems, capable of: (1) predicting the incipient collapse based on the interpretation of a continuous monitoring of the structure and (2) spreading alarm promptly to reduce people exposure. Compared with structural approaches, early warning systems have two important advantages: a faster, simpler and less expensive implementation and environmental compatibility. Past experience indicates that vulnerability of earth dams is generally low under both static and seismic loading conditions. In spite of this, earth dams are characterized by a high-risk level, due to the high exposure factor. Nowadays, the application of early warning systems to dams is fully supported by the technological progress achieved in the telecommunication field, since it is possible to install and automate recordings and transmission of all physical variables significant to check dam safety: accelerations, displacements, pore-water pressures, total stresses, seepage flows. A considerable lack still arises in the predictive models for interpreting monitoring data and providing indicators on dam safety soon after a strong earthquake. The present work illustrates the basic concepts of an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for earth dams and the main features that should characterize a predictive model to such a scope. An application to a real case is finally provided, enhancing the role played by each monitored physical variable for the aims of EEW. 相似文献
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Gianfranco Brambilla Stefania Paola De Filippis Vittorio Esposito Gaetano Settimo 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2013,41(2):113-118
Dioxin‐like compounds from regular, occasional or fugitive airborne sources of emission may fall out on fodders close to be harvested for silage and hay production. In this way, a prolonged long‐term intake of contaminated forages in dairy animals may be envisaged, able to determine a rise of the background contamination in milk. We simulated different risk scenarios taking into account the inventoried bulk dry depositions in rural areas of the aforesaid contaminants, silage and hay biomass production per hectare, forages regimen in dairy animals, and the congeners carry‐over rate (COR) from forages to milk. Considering atmospheric depositions >10 pg I‐TE m?2 day?1 and accounting for a 30% COR, dairy milk could rise up to the PCDD/F level of 3 pg WHO1998‐TE g?1 fat. The modelling indicates that in rural areas bulk emissions should be selectively minimised, accounting for the calendar of the different agricultural practices, because of their potential impact on the fodders. Since environmental factors play a non‐negligible role in food production, a stronger harmonisation between I‐TE and WHO1998–2005‐TE scales with respect to dioxin‐like polychlorobiphenyl congeners inclusion is envisaged. This will allow the prevention of the human indirect exposure to such contaminants when released in the air. 相似文献
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Cristiana Guerranti Stefania Ancora Nicola Bianchi Guido Perra Emiliano Leonida Fanello Simonetta Corsolini Maria Cristina Fossi Silvano Ettore Focardi 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013
Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), widely used for their hydro-oil repellent properties, are almost non-degradable in the environment; there is scientific evidence that indicate bioaccumulation. They represent a threat to many organisms, because they are toxic and are endocrine disruptors. Scientific studies have demonstrated the presence of PFCs in blood and liver samples of fish, turtles, birds and mammals of marine ecosystems in different geographical areas. The aim of this study was to determine the distribution of PFOS and PFOA in blood samples of the marine turtle Caretta caretta, using a minimally invasive sampling procedure. 49 blood samples of marine turtle, taken from several Italian marine turtle rescue centers, were analyzed. While PFOA was never detected, measurable concentrations of PFOS were found in 15 blood samples; the values show a range from 1.14 ng/g to 28.51 ng/g (wet wt.). No differences between groups of samples taken from different areas were found. 相似文献
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Stefania Bilardi Richard T. Amos David W. Blowes Paolo S. Calabrò Nicola Moraci 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2013,33(1):97-104
MIN3P, a multicomponent reactive transport model for variably saturated porous media, is used to simulate the outputs of column tests carried out using zero valent iron (ZVI) for nickel contaminated groundwater remediation. The objective of this study is to investigate the main chemical reactions involved in contaminant removal and the main causes of the reactivity decline of ZVI over time. According to the results of the model the major causes of ZVI reactivity loss is identified in the mineral precipitation of α‐FeOOH on iron surface that probably caused ZVI passivation and led to a decline of the electron transfer rate. An existing empirical relationship between mineral precipitation and the reactivity loss of ZVI, included in the model, reproduced the changes in nickel removal observed during different laboratory column tests. 相似文献