基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘绿柳  孙林海  廖要明  杜良敏  李想 《应用气象学报》2011,22(1):77-85

针对动力气候模式对区域或更小空间尺度内的日降水预测技巧偏低的问题,应用最优子集回归 (OSR) 方法对国家气候中心业务化的月动力气候模式 (DERF) 输出的高度场、风场和海平面气压场进行降尺度处理用于降水预测,旨在提高预测准确率。1982—2006年交叉检验结果表明:OSR方法能显著提高降水预测技巧,其中11~40 d改善效果最为显著。在此基础上,应用一步法和两步法两种统计降尺度方法预测极端降水日数,交叉检验结果表明:两种方法均优于随机预测,冬季两步法预测技巧略高于一步法,夏季一步法略优于两步法。综合认为OSR,OSR结合随机天气发生器 (WG) 两种统计降尺度方法对月尺度降水或极端降水日数的预测均具有较高的技巧,可作为短期气候预测的重要参考信息。  相似文献   

Pliocene climate change of the Southwest Pacific and the impact of ocean gateways     

Cyrus Karas  Dirk Nürnberg  Ralf Tiedemann  Dieter Garbe-Schönberg 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2011,301(1-2):117-124

The transition from the early Pliocene “Warmhouse” towards the present “Icehouse” climate and the role of Gateway dynamics are intensively debated. Both, the constrictions of the Central American Seaway and the Indonesian Gateway affected ocean circulation and climate during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we use combined δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca ratios of planktonic foraminifera (marine protozoa) from surface and subsurface levels to reconstruct the thermal structure and changes in salinities from the Southwest Pacific Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 590B from 6.5 to 2.5 Ma. Our data suggest a gradual cooling of ~ 2 °C and freshening of the sea surface during ~ 4.6–4 Ma with an increased meridional temperature gradient between the West Pacific Warm Pool and the Southwest Pacific when the closing of the Central American Seaway reached a critical threshold. After ~ 3.5 Ma, the restricted Indonesian Gateway might have amplified the East Australian Current, allowing enhanced heat transport towards the Southwest Pacific with reduced meridional temperature gradients when the global climate gradually cooled. At the same time our data suggest a cooling and freshening of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) or/and an increased northward flow of SAMW towards Site 590B, possibly a first step towards the present Antarctic Frontal System.  相似文献   

Chemical composition of spinel from Uralian-Alaskan-type Mafic–Ultramafic complexes and its petrogenetic significance     

J. Krause  G. E. Brügmann  E. V. Pushkarev 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2011,161(2):255-273

Uralian-Alaskan-type mafic–ultramafic complexes are recognized as a distinct class of intrusions regarding lithologic assemblage, mineral chemistry and petrogenetic setting. In the present study, we discuss new data on the distribution of major elements in minerals of the spinel group in rocks from Uralian-Alaskan-type complexes in the Ural Mountains, Russia. Cr-rich spinel (Cr₂O₃ = 20–53 wt%) in dunite with interstitial clinopyroxene and in wehrlite cumulates indicate that it reacted with interstitial liquid resulting in the progressive substitution of Al₂O₂ and Cr₂O₃ by Fe₂O₃ and TiO₂. A distinct change in the spinel chemistry in dunite (Cr₂O₃ = 47–53 wt%), towards Al₂O₃- and Cr₂O₃-poor but Fe₂O₃-rich compositions monitors the onset of clinopyroxene fractionation in wehrlite (Cr₂O₃ = 15–35 wt%, Al₂O₃ = 1–8 wt%, Fe₂O₃ = 25–55 wt%). In more fractionated mafic rocks, the calculated initial composition of exsolved spinel traces the sustained crystallization of clinopyroxene by decreasing Cr₂O₃ and increasing FeO, Fe₂O₃ and fO₂. Finally, the initiation of feldspar crystallization buffers the Al₂O₃ content in most of the spinels in mafic rocks at very low Cr₂O₃ contents (<5 wt%). The fractionation path all along and the reaction with interstitial liquid are accompanied by increasing Fe₂O₃ contents in the spinel. This likely is caused by a significant increase in the oxygen fugacity, which suggests closed system fractionation processes. Spinel with Cr₂O₃ < 27 wt% is exsolved into a Fe₂O₃-rich and an Al₂O₃-rich phase forming a variety of textures. Remarkably, exsolved spinel in different lithologies from complexes 200 km apart follows one distinct solvus line defining a temperature of ca. 600°C. This indicates that the parental magmas were emplaced and eventually cooled at similar levels in the lithosphere, likely near the crust–mantle boundary. Eventually, these 600°C hot bodies were rapidly transported into colder regions of the upper crust during a regional tectonic event, probably during the major active phase of the Main Uralian Fault.  相似文献   

Holocene monsoon climate documented by oxygen and carbon isotopes from lake sediments and peat bogs in China: a review and synthesis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jiawu Zhang  Fahu Chen  Jonathan A. Holmes  Hui Li  Xiaoyan Guo  Junlan Wang  Shuang Li  Yanbin Lü  Yan Zhao  Mingrui Qiang 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(15-16):1973-1987

There has been much recent debate about Holocene climate variation in the monsoon region of China, especially the temporal pattern of variations in precipitation, the time-transgressive nature of the Holocene precipitation maximum, and the extent to which variations in regions influenced by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) have been synchronous. We summarize and compare carbonate oxygen-isotope records (δ¹⁸O_carb) from ten lakes within the present-day ISM region. We discuss their paleoclimate significance considering the present-day moisture source, isotopic composition of precipitation and the hydrological setting. The δ¹⁸O_carb records are controlled mainly by the isotopic composition of lake water, which in turn is a function of regional Precipitation/Evaporation (P/E) balance and the proportion of precipitation that is monsoon-derived. We normalized the δ¹⁸O_carb data and used these records to generate an integrated moisture index. This index, along with oxygen-isotope records from speleothems and carbon-isotope records (δ¹³C_org) from peats within the monsoon region, suggests that Holocene climate was broadly synchronous across the monsoon region and, within the limits of accuracy of the existing age models, provides no strong evidence for previously-proposed anti-phasing of the ISM and the EASM. Stable-isotope records from lake sediments and peat bogs have excellent potential for providing high-quality paleoclimate data for monsoon Asia, and complement high-resolution speleothem sequences, which are only found in certain localities.  相似文献   

西藏甲玛铜多金属矿区成矿斑岩的岩浆混合作用:石英及长石斑晶新证据   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

彭惠娟  汪雄武  Müller Axel  秦志鹏  侯林  周云 《矿床地质》2011,30(2):249-265

西藏甲玛矿区斑岩内石英和长石斑晶的阴极发光(CL)特征及元素含量变化有效记录了岩浆演化、混合及补给事件.石英斑晶的显微生长结构表明,原始岩浆经历过2次铁镁质岩浆混合作用.根据石英斑晶中Ti含量的变化可知,在2次溶蚀前后,石英结晶温度分别增高了约110℃和80℃.此外,斜长石斑晶的反环带及其Ba、Sr、Fe等元素的浓度梯...  相似文献   

A seismological study of shallow weak micro-earthquakes in the urban area of Hamburg city,Germany, and its possible relation to salt dissolution     

Torsten Dahm  Sebastian Heimann  Wilhelm Bialowons 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1111-1134

In the night from 8/9 April 2009, shortly after midnight on Maundy Thursday before Easter, several people in Gross Flottbek, Hamburg, felt unusual strong ground shocks so that some of them left their houses in fear of earthquake shaking. Police and fire brigade received phone calls of worried residents. A few days later, Internet pages were published where people reported their observations. On 21 April 2009 at about 8 p.m. local time, a second ground-shaking event was felt. Damage to buildings or infrastructure did not occur to our knowledge. The Institute of Geophysics, University of Hamburg, installed from 22 April to 17 May 2009 three temporal seismic stations in the epicentral area. Seismological data from two nearby stations at the Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron at 1 km and the Geophysical Institute at 7 km distance were collected and integrated to the temporal network. The events occurred above the roof of the shallow Othmarschen Langenfelde salt diapir, in an area known for active sinkhole formation and previous historic ground-shaking events. The analysis of the seismological data shows that three shallow micro-earthquakes occurred from 8 to 21 April at a depth of about 100 m, the largest one with a moment magnitude of about M _W 0.6. Depth location of such shallow events is difficult with standard methods and is here constrained by waveform modeling of surface waves. Earthquakes occurring in soft sediments within the uppermost 100 m are a rare phenomena and cannot be explained by standard models. Rupture process in soft sediments differs from those on faults in more competent rock. We discuss the rupture and source mechanism of the events in the context of previous historic shocks and existing sinkhole and deformation data. Although the event was weak, the rupture duration of 0.3 s was unusual long. Three possible models for the generation of repeated ground-shaking events in Gross Flottbek are developed and discussed, implying quit different hazards for subsidence, ground motion, and sinkhole formation. Our favored model postulates that roof failure occurs in an existing soil cavity beneath the epicenter at a depth of about 100 m. Other models bearing a smaller geo-hazard cannot be disproved with the data available, but future geophysical experiments may be planned to resolve this question.  相似文献   

Petrology and Geochemistry of Post-Collisional Early Miocene Volcanism in the Karacada? Area (Central Anatolia, Turkey)     

Kür?ad ASAN  Hüseyin KURT 《《地质学报》英文版》2011,85(5):1100-1117

Early Miocene (ca.?21–18 Ma) volcanism in the Karacada? area comprises three groups of volcanic rocks: (1) calcalkaline suite (andesitic to rhyolitic lavas and their pyroclastics), (2) mildly-alkaline suite (alkali basalt, hawaiite, mugearite, benmoreite and trachydacite), and (3) a single trachyandesitic flow unit. Field observations, 40Ar/39Ar ages and geochemical data show that there was a progressive temporal transition from group 1 to 3 in a post-collisional tectonic setting. The calcalkaline suite rocks with medium-K in composition resemble those of subduction-related lavas, whereas the mildly-alkaline suite rocks having a sodic tendency (Na2O/K2O=1.5–3.2) resemble those of within-plate lavas. Incompatible element and Sr-Nd isotopic characteristics of the suites suggest that the lithospheric mantle beneath the Karacada? area was heterogeneously enriched by two processes before collision: (1) enrichment by subduction-related processes, which is important in the genesis of the calcalkaline volcanism, (2) enrichment by small degree melts from the astenosphere, which dominates the mildly alkaline volcanism. Perturbation of the enriched lithosphere by either delamination following collision and uplift or removal of the subducted slab following subduction and collision (i.e., slab breakoff) is the likely mechanism for the initiation of the post-collision volcanism.  相似文献   

60Fe–60Ni systematics in the eucrite parent body: A case study of Bouvante and Juvinas     

Ghylaine Quitté  Christopher Latkoczy  Maria Schönbächler  Alex N. Halliday  Detlef Günther 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(23):7698-7706

Eucrites are basaltic meteorites that cooled rapidly but are in many instances thermally metamorphosed and impact brecciated. The exact timing of these events remains unclear. In this study, Ni isotopic compositions and Fe/Ni elemental ratios are presented for two non-cumulate eucrites, Bouvante and Juvinas, including mineral separates from the latter. The samples are characterized by variable, well-resolved ⁶⁰Ni-excesses consistent with the former presence of live ⁶⁰Fe (t_1/2 = 2.62 Ma) at the time of eucrite crystallization. A significant fraction of Ni with a terrestrial-like composition appears to be surface correlated. This Ni may be the product of terrestrial contamination or was introduced by a chondritic impactor during brecciation. Altogether, the data provide evidence for a complex and probably multi-stage history of Fe and/or Ni redistribution, which impedes the interpretation of the chronological data.  相似文献   

Uranium–lead ages of apatite from iron oxide ores of the Bafq District,East-Central Iran     

Heinz-Günter Stosch  Rolf L. Romer  Farahnaz Daliran  Dieter Rhede 《Mineralium Deposita》2011,46(1):9-21

Iron oxide–apatite (IOA) deposits, often referred to as Kiruna-type iron ore deposits, are known to have formed from the Proterozoic to the Tertiary. They are commonly associated with calc–alkaline volcanic rocks and regional- to deposit-scale metasomatic alteration. In the Bafq District in east Central Iran, economic iron oxide–apatite deposits occur within felsic volcanic tuffs and volcanosedimentary sequences of Early Cambrian age. In order to constrain the age of formation of these ores and their relationship with the Early Cambrian magmatic event, we have determined the U–Pb apatite age for five occurrences in the Bafq District. In a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U vs. ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U diagram, apatite free of or poor in inclusions of other minerals plots along the Concordia between 539 and 527 Ma with four out of five samples from one deposit clustering at the upper end of this range. For this deposit, we interpret this cluster to represent the age of apatite formation, whereas the spread towards younger ages may reflect either minor Pb loss or several events of IOA formation. Apatite with inclusions of monazite (±xenotime) yields disturbed systems with inclusions having developed after formation of the iron ore–apatite deposits, possibly as late as 130–140 Ma ago. Obtained apatite ages confirms that (IOA) and the apatite-rich rocks (apatites) of the Bafq district formed coevally with the Early Cambrian magmatic (-metasomatic) events.  相似文献   

A parametric study on seakeeping assessment of fast ships in conceptual design stage     

Sadık Özüm  Bekir Şener  Hüseyin Yilmaz 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(13):1439-1447

The paper presents an approach to investigate the effects of some parameters on seakeeping assessment of fast ships in conceptual design stage. Hull form parameters have been classified into two groups: main dimensions (L, B and T) and secondary form parameters (LCB and C_P). To demonstrate the approach a fast ship is redesigned as parent hull and alternative hull forms are generated by changing these parameters systematically. Some hull forms are selected related the geometric limits and seakeeping analyzes are here investigated and discussed. The obtained results are satisfactory for seakeeping predictions during the conceptual design stage.  相似文献