晋中秋白菜生长后期冻害天气预报研究及对策     

韩爱梅  李彩玲  李文辉  查增萍  田珏 《山西气象》2007,(1):14-16

依据秋白菜冻害发生前不同的天气条件,将冻害分为干冷型和湿冷型2种类型,并针对秋白菜的生理特点及对气象观测资料的研究,归纳出2型的冻害气象指标。在反查了大量的历史天气图基础上,选取08时天气图上某一范围作为预报关键区,建立了2型冻害的72h、48h、24h各预报时效的进型条件、起报条件和消空指标,综合组成了秋白菜的冻害预报系统。在1992年～1999年的试报中,各预报时效准确率平均达86%,取得了较满意得效果。  相似文献   

1997年9月三水3.7和4.4级地震特征初析     

王正尚  康英 《华南地震》1998,18(1):125-129

对１９９７年９月２３日和２６日两次三水有感地震的特征进行了初步分析,认为这两次地震具有震前和震后地震活动水平低、面波发育和低震级高烈度等特性;震区的主压应力为北北西方向,两震的受力方向基本一致,但断层面解明显不同。  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯模型的器测、古气候重建与气候模拟数据的融合试验     

余君  李庆祥  张同文  徐文慧  张雷  崔妍 《气象学报》2018,76(2):304-314

气象部门馆藏的西部最早的器测气象资料始于20世纪30年代,不能满足建立20世纪以来中国气候变化序列的需求,而古气候重建或气候模拟资料则可以延伸到器测时代以前。为了探讨长序列多源气候资料序列融合方法,采用贝叶斯方法对中国北疆地区8条树轮气温重建资料、器测资料与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）模式模拟资料进行了融合试验。首先利用器测资料对气温代用资料进行校验与网格重建,并以此作为贝叶斯模型的先验分布,然后,用泰勒图选出了该区域气候模拟效果最佳的几个模式;最后将网格重建和气候模拟序列用贝叶斯模型进行了融合试验。结果表明,贝叶斯融合模型能有效提取各种数据来源的有用信息进行融合,融合结果的长期变化（线性）趋势更接近器测气候序列,并在一定程度上提高了序列的精度,减小了结果的不确定性;并且,融合结果能够纠正先验分布及气候模拟数据的明显偏差,为长年代气候序列重建提供了一个可行的思路。   相似文献   

Intra-seasonal variability of the abyssal currents in COMRA’s contract area in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone     

Fangfang Kuang  Jing Cha  Junpeng Zhang  Aijun Pan  Hangyu Chen  Xiwu Zhou  Chunsheng Jing  Xiaogang Guo 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(11):1-11

In this paper, the intra-seasonal variability of the abyssal currents in the China Ocean Mineral Resources Association (COMRA) polymetallic nodule contact area, located in the western part of the Clarion and Clipperton Fraction Zone in the tropical East Pacific, is investigated using direct observations from subsurface mooring instruments as well as sea-surface height data and reanalysis products. Mooring observations were conducted from September 13, 2017 to August 15, 2018 in the COMRA contact area (10°N, 154°W). The results were as follows: (1) At depths below 200 m, the kinetic energy of intra-seasonal variability (20?100 d) accounts for more than 40% of the overall low-frequency variability, while the ratio reaches more than 50% below 2 000 m. (2) At depths below 200 m, currents show a synchronous oscillation with a characteristic time scale of 30 d, lasting from October to the following January; the energy of the 30-d oscillation increases with depth until the layer of approximately 4 616 m, and the maximum velocity is approximately 10 cm/s. (3) The 30-d oscillation of deep currents is correlated with the tropical instability waves in the upper ocean.  相似文献   

环境规制视角下城市绿色创新时空演变及溢出效应     

彭文斌  苏欣怡  杨胜苏  邝劲松  曹笑天 《地理科学》2023,43(1):41-49

基于2005—2019年中国266个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用SBM-DEA模型评价城市绿色创新水平,刻画城市绿色创新的空间演变格局,最后构建空间杜宾模型实证分析不同类型的环境规制视角下城市绿色创新的溢出效应。研究结果显示：(1)时序发展上,研究期内城市绿色创新呈现东部地区、中部地区、西部地区、东北地区依次减弱的态势,总体上表现为“双M”型波动上升趋势,未来具有较大的增长潜力;(2)空间演化上,城市绿色创新在空间分布格局上存在明显的区域异质性,整体表现为东部地区主导发展的特征;(3)城市绿色创新在正式环境规制视角下存在正向溢出效应,在非正式环境规制视角下未产生显著溢出效应。  相似文献   

广西沿海超高层建筑进行气象灾害风险评估必要性     

农成万  何如  邝良俊  张幸  李斌喜 《气象研究与应用》2014,(1):71-73,87,I0002

通过列举国内外超高层建筑遭受气象灾害的案例,结合广西气象灾害风险区划资料,分析大风、台风、龙卷风、暴雨、雷电（雷击）、强降温等灾害与沿海超高层建筑的关系,以及可能造成的影响和潜在的风险,论述了超高层建筑进行气象灾害风险评估可实现最大安全与最小投资的统一.以期为广西沿海开展“超高层建筑气象灾害风险评估”工作提供理由和依据.  相似文献   

区域Gamma混合模型的SAR图像分割   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李琴洁  杨学志  吴克伟  薛丽霞  郎文辉 《遥感学报》2014,18(5):1024-1033

针对传统Gamma混合模型用于SAR图像分割时忽略像素间空间相关性,导致分割结果不连续并产生大量误分割的现象,提出了区域Gamma混合模型的SAR图像分割算法。首先对图像进行分水岭分割,得到过分割区域块,然后将其作为输入样本进行基于Gamma混合模型的聚类,在模型的参数估计过程中进一步考虑区域间的空间相关性,设计邻域因子融入到迭代过程,得到邻域加权类分布概率。该算法充分利用像素间的空间相关性,能够降低噪声对分割结果的影响。通过合成图像和真实SAR图像的实验表明,本文算法能够实现SAR图像的准确分割。  相似文献   

嫦娥三号导航相机测图能力分析及地形重建     

彭嫚  万文辉  吴凯  刘召芹  李力  邸凯昌  李立春  苗毅  詹磊 《遥感学报》2014,18(5):995-1002

基于立体相机成像模型并结合相机参数对嫦娥三号导航相机3维测图能力进行分析,利用摄影测量原理和误差传播定律对巡视器30 m范围内的DEM精度进行了理论分析,推导出导航相机立体影像获得的采样点精度公式,并绘制了DEM的平面精度图和高程精度图;同时使用多线程技术开发了基于导航相机立体影像的地形快速重建算法,利用多线程技术完成影像的特征匹配和密集匹配,并通过分块内插生成DEM。该技术应用于嫦娥三号任务中,有力地支持了嫦娥三号遥操作路径规划相关任务。  相似文献   

Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in northern China since the 1970s?   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Wenjiao Shi  Fulu Tao  Jiyuan Liu  Xinliang Xu  Wenhui Kuang  Jinwei Dong  Xiaoli Shi 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):163-177

Improving the understanding of cropland change and its driving factors is a current focus for policy decision-makers in China. The datasets of cropland and cropland changes from the 1970s to the 2000s were used to explore whether climate change has produced spatio-temporal changes to cropland in northern China since the 1970s. Two representative indicators of heat and water resources, which are important determinants of crop growth and productivity, were considered to track climate change, including active accumulated temperatures ≥10 °C (AAT10) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Our results showed that rapid cropland change has occurred in northern China since the 1970s, and the area of cropland reclamation (10.23 million ha) was much greater than that of abandoned cropland (2.94 million ha). In the 2000s, the area of cropland with AAT10 higher than 3,000 °C·d increased, while the area of cropland with an SPEI greater than 0.25 decreased compared to the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. It appears that climate warming has provided thermal conditions that have aided rapid cropland reclamation in northern China since the 1970s, and drier climatic conditions did not become a limiting factor for cropland reclamation, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s. Approximately 70 % of cropland reclamation areas were located in warmer but drier regions from the 1990s to the 2000s, and approximately 40 % of cropland abandonment occurred in warmer and wetter conditions that were suitable for agriculture during the periods from the 1970s to the 1980s and the 1990s to the 2000s. Our results suggest that climate change can be considered a driving factor of cropland change in the past several decades in northern China, in addition to socioeconomic factors.  相似文献   

机场净空区建筑物的识别与监测     

童矿  宋洋  孔祥芬 《测绘通报》2022,(3):127-131

目前,在建筑物识别与监测方面,基于单幅高分辨率遥感影像的阴影测高法和基于多视角影像的立体像对法将建筑物轮廓或名称识别与高度监测相独立,因此导致其自动化水平较低、数据冗余度与成本较高。基于数字表面模型(DSM)和兴趣点(POI)数据,本文提出了一种机场净空区建筑物识别与监测集成的方法,并以某国际机场为试验区对该方法的可行性进行了验证。试验结果表明:①该方法在建筑物识别与监测方面的准确率只取决于DSM的精度,而对DSM的数据来源没有限制;②以潜在危险建筑物高程变化速率为依据进行不定期的动态监测,在确保监测间隔期间机场净空区安全的同时可以降低数据成本和重复识别与监测所有建筑物造成的数据冗余度。  相似文献