东亚夏季风的模拟研究──3个区域气候模式的对比   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  

赵宗慈  罗勇  Ｒ．Ｌｅｕｎｇ  Ｓ．Ｇｈａｎ  Ｗ．Ｃ．Ｗａｎｇ  Ｈ．Ｗｅｉ 《应用气象学报》1997,(Z1)

全球环流模式在东亚地区模拟可靠性评估研究表明存在不确定性，尤以降水更明显．该模式更难于模拟小范围（如一个省）和小时间尺度（如日）的气候变化．本研究用３个区域气候模式作１９９１年东亚夏季（５～８月）季风洪涝气候的模拟．其模拟结果与观测场作了严格的对比并进行了３个模式的相互对比．研究表明，３个区域气候模式成功地模拟了１９９１年夏季发生在我国江淮流域及日本南部的洪涝和几次特大暴雨过程以及相应的大气环流形势的分布．  相似文献   

模拟温室效应对我国气候变化的影响   总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22  

赵宗慈 《气象》1989,15(3):10-14

利用5个全球大气海洋海冰模式,模拟了大气中二氧化碳浓度的增加对我国冬季与夏季地面气温、降水率及土壤湿度的影响。结果表明,由于温室效应,我国冬、夏季气温增暖,降水率与土壤湿度也有明显变化。  相似文献   

用气候模式模拟大气中二氧化碳浓度增加对气候变化的影响     

赵宗慈 《气象科技》1986,(4):37-44

一、引言人类活动对气候变化的影响以及气候变化对人类的影响问题在近二十年来被许多气候学家所注意。人类活动对气候影响中最受注意的是 CO_2增长的效应。许多观测及分析研究已经证实,大气中  相似文献   

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF MERIDIONAL WIND ANOMALIES IN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND SSTA     

张祖强  丁一汇  赵宗慈  黄山江 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2002,8(2):180-190

The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method is used to conduct studies of periodicity of the SST and meridional winds in tropical Pacific Ocean. The results show that the air-sea system for the Pacific varies on quasi-4-year, quasi-2-year and interannual scales, with the quasi-4-year scale having the highest variability. Depending on the scale, the wind field has a varying degree of association with the SST anomalies. Difference is also found in the evolution of phase. In addition, the work discusses the difference in SSTA resulted from wind fields for quasi-4-year and quasi-2-year components.  相似文献   

EXTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA AND ENSO IN 2001 BY CLIMATE MODELS   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李清泉  赵宗慈 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2002,(4)

China is a monsoon country.The most rainfalls in China concentrate on the summer seasons.More frequent floods or droughts occur in some parts of China.Therefore,the prediction ofsummer rainfall in China is a significant issue.As we know,the obvious impacts of the sea surfacetemperature anomalies(SSTA)on the summer rainfall over China have been noticed.Thepredictions of the SSTA have been involved in the research.The key project on short-term climate modeling prediction system has been finished in 2000.The system included an atmospheric general circulation model named AGCM95,a coupledatmospheric-oceanic general circulation model named AOGCM95,a regional climate model overChina named RegCM95,a high-resolution Indian-Pacific OGCM named IPOGCM95,and asimplified atmosphere-ocean dynamic model system named SAOMS95.They became theoperational prediction models of National Climate Center(NCC).Extra-seasonal predictions in 2001 have been conducted by several climate models,which werethe AGCM95,AOGCM95,RegCM95,IPOGCM95,AIPOGCM95,OSU/NCC,SAOMS95,IAPAPOGCM and CAMS/ZS.All of those models predicted the summer precipitation over China and/or the annual SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Modeling Prediction Workshop held inMarch 2001.The assessments have shown that the most models predicted the distributions of main rain beltover Huanan and parts of Jiangnan and droughts over Huabei-Hetao and Huaihe River Valleyreasonably.The most models predicted successfully that a weaker cold phase of the SSTA over thecentral and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean would continue in 2001.The evaluations of extra-seasonal predictions have also indicated that the models had a certaincapability of predicting the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the summer rainfall overChina.The assessment also showed that multi-model ensemble(super ensembles)predictionsprovided the better forecasts for both SSTA and summer rainfall in 2001,compared with the singlemodel.It is a preliminary assessment for the extra-seasonal predictions by the climate models.Thefurther investigations will be carried out.The model system should be developed and improved.  相似文献   

地面太阳辐射的变化、影响因子及其可能的气候效应最新研究进展   总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24  

申彦波  赵宗慈  石广玉 《地球科学进展》2008,23(9):915-923

近几十年来,全球和我国大部分区域的地面太阳辐射都经历了一个从减少到增加的过程,也就是所谓的地球"变暗"到"变亮";引起这种变化的原因复杂多样,总云量的变化无法完全解释,而气溶胶的变化则有可能在某些地区(包括中国)起着重要作用;地面太阳辐射的这种变化会产生重要的气候效应,在"变亮"的过程中有可能使温室气体的增暖效应表现得更加明显.从以上3个方面,对近几年国内外利用地面观测资料和卫星遥感资料所得到的最新研究成果进行了总结和分析,这些研究所揭示的与全球气候变化有关的基本事实也可以为我国的气候变化研究提供一定的参考和启示.  相似文献   

亚洲减灾大会--专题会议侧记          下载免费PDF全文

赵宗慈  王邦中 《气候变化研究进展》2005,1(4):190-190

1 大会概况 2005年9月27～29日在中国北京召开了亚洲减灾大会,本次会议由中华人民共和国国家减灾委员会、民政部、外交部、北京市人民政府承办,联合国开发计划署(UNDP)、联合国国际减灾战略(ISDR)、联合国亚太经社理事会(UNESCAP)、世界气象组织(WMO)、亚洲备灾中心(ADPC)协办。会议的主会场是由亚洲各国的部长级官员参加的高级圆桌政策会议,同时召开专题会议,分成三个专题,分别是灾害预警与信息系统,灾害预防与减灾,灾害综合管理。  相似文献   

"气候变化与水"技术报告开始撰写          下载免费PDF全文

吴绍洪  赵宗慈 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(2):79-79

在酝酿IPCC第四次科学评估报告的初始阶段，曾提出在3个工作组的报告基本完成时，组织一些主要作者撰写一份有关“气候变化与水”的技术报告。于是在第四次科学评估报告接近尾声之际，IPCC以第二工作组的有关主要作者为主体（其中有3位专家担任召集人），第一和第三工作组的少量主要作者参加，组成了一个大约30人的“气候变化与水”技术报告主要作者写作班子，在IPCC3个工作组第四次科学评估报告的基础上，撰写这篇技术报告。这些主要作者中发达国家17人、发展中国家9人、经济转型国家1人；主要作者的国家所在地理分布大致平衡，其中欧洲10人、美洲6人、亚洲5人（中国作者2人，其中一位是召集人）、非洲4人、大洋洲2人。  相似文献   

EXPERIMENTS OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION BY THE OSU/NCC GCM FOR SUMMER SEASON IN CHINA   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

高学杰  赵宗慈 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2000,(3)

By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal,interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982—1995 have been made by the atmosphericGCM/mixed layer ocean and ice model(OSU/NCC).Contrasts between forecasts by the OSU/NCC and the observations show that the model has a certain ability in the prediction ofprecipitation for summer over China in all of the three different time scales.And it indicates thatthe interseasonal prediction is the best among the forecasts of three scales.It is also indicated thatthe prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.  相似文献   

ON WESTERLY WIND BURSTS IN EQUATORIAL WESTERN PACIFIC BEFORE AND DURING THE ONSET AND INITIAL DEVELOPMENT PHASES OF ENSO          下载免费PDF全文

张祖强  丁一汇  赵宗慈 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2000,(4)

By means of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset,the origins of westerly wind anomalies at lowlevel over equatorial western Pacific Ocean before and during the onset and initial developmentphase of ENSO are explored.Evidences show that westerly anomalies in the equatorial westernPacific(140—180°E)are characterized by two remarkable enhancements in the spring and summerof the year when El Nine emerges.The enhancements are not only.to some extem.due to theeastward propagation of low-level westerlies in equatorial Indian Ocean.but also predominantlyresulting from Ihe intense convergence of the meridional wind from both hemispheres.Thelatitudinal convergence leads to the local intensification of zonal pressure gradient so as to cause thereinforcement and bursts of westerly wind over warm pool.Besides,by virtue of the effect ofearth rotation,the northeasterlies(southeasterlies)from the Northern(Southern)Hemisphereturn into northwesterlies(southwesterlies)progressively in the near-equatorial zone.whichdirectly strengthens the westerly velocity.Comparing the contributions of the meridional windfrom both hemispheres to westerly wind bursts,is seems that southeasterlies from the SouthernHemisphere are much stronger and more stable than northwesterlies of Northern Hemisphere.It isevident that the southeasterlies to the east of Australia originate from the southern mid-and highlatitudes and are in close association with the Southern Oscillation.  相似文献