黄河三角洲生态经济区水资源承载力评价及趋势预测     

张樨樨  曹正旭  张仁杰  韩沅刚  李旋 《世界地理研究》2022,31(3):549-560

水资源承载力是反映区域水资源对经济社会发展的支撑能力,是衡量水资源与经济、社会、自然是否和谐发展的重要指标。综合考虑经济、社会、自然等因素,构建“承压-压力-协调-管理”四维水资源承载力评价指标体系,通过组合赋权法测度水资源承载力水平,运用M-K趋势法分析其时空变化特征,并运用R/S分析法预测未来发展趋势。结果表明：（1）黄河三角洲高效生态经济区水资源承载力指数呈缓慢上升趋势,整体数值偏低;（2）沿海地区水资源承载力较好,水资源承载力指数由沿海向内陆逐渐降低,承压指数、压力指数、协调指数、管理指数空间特征明显;（3）水资源承载力在莱州湾及黄河入海口部分县（市、区）显著改善,远海地区呈现显著恶化趋势,协调指数和管理指数有所改善,承压指数不容乐观,压力指数普遍恶化;（4）未来变化中,水资源承载力在黄河三角洲高效生态经济区呈现持续改善趋势,惠民县、阳信县、利津县、高青县等地区呈持续恶化态势。  相似文献   

2012年中国沿海海平面上升显著成因分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王慧  刘克修  范文静  高志刚  张建立  李琰  张增建 《海洋学报》2014,36(5):8-17

2012年,中国沿海海平面变化最突出的特点是海平面升高显著。海平面总体比常年高122mm,较2011年偏高53mm,达1980年以来最高位。本文使用中国沿海及西北太平洋区域近30a的水位、海温、气温、气压和风等水文气象资料,详细分析了中国沿海海平面2012年异常偏高的成因。结果表明:2010-2012年中国沿海海平面处于2~3a、8~9a和准19a周期震荡的高位,几个周期震荡高位叠加,对海平面上升起了明显的影响;2012年,沿海气温和海温分别较常年偏高0.4℃和0.3℃,气压较常年低1.2hPa,气压达历史最低位;2012年,中国南海夏季风爆发时间较常年偏早,结束较常年偏晚,季风持续时间较常年偏长,导致2012年5-6月和8月,在黄海和东海海域,东北风持续偏强,南海海域南风偏强,风场的异常导致黄海、东海和南海沿海海水长时间堆积,是造成海平面升高的原因之一;2012年,热带气旋登陆时间集中,影响范围广,北上和影响东北地区的台风数量均为历史之最,特别是2012年8月,有6个热带气旋相继影响我国沿海,对当月海平面升高影响明显;另外,2012年副热带高压偏北、偏东、偏弱的特点对东海和南海的海平面上升也有一定影响。  相似文献   

1982–2010年中国草地覆盖度变化及其与水热因子耦合性研究(英文)     

周伟  刚成诚  陈奕兆  穆少杰  孙政国  李建龙 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,(4)

GIMMS(Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) NDVI(Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) from 1982 to 2006 and MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) NDVI from 2001 to 2010 were blended to extract the grass coverage and analyze its spatial pattern. The response of grass coverage to climatic variations at annual and monthly time scales was analyzed. Grass coverage distribution had increased from northwest to southeast across China. During 1982–2010, the mean nationwide grass coverage was 34% but exhibited apparent spatial heterogeneity, being the highest(61.4%) in slope grasslands and the lowest(17.1%) in desert grasslands. There was a slight increase of the grass coverage with a rate of 0.17% per year. Increase in slope grasslands coverage was as high as 0.27% per year, while in the plain grasslands and meadows the grass coverage increase was the lowest(being 0.11% per year and 0.1% per year, respectively). Across China, the grass coverage with extremely significant increase(P0.01) and significant increase(P0.05) accounted for 46.03% and 11% of the total grassland area, respectively, while those with extremely significant and significant decrease accounted for only 4.1% and 3.24%, respectively. At the annual time scale, there are no significant correlations between grass coverage and annual mean temperature and precipitation. However, the grass coverage was somewhat affected by temperature in alpine and sub-alpine grassland, alpine and sub-alpine meadow, slope grassland and meadow, while grass coverage in desert grassland and plain grassland was more affected by precipitation. At the monthly time-scale, there are significant correlations between grass coverage with both temperature and precipitation, indicating that the grass coverage is more affected by seasonal fluctuations of hydrothermal conditions. Additionally, there is one-month time lag-effect between grass coverage and climate factors for each grassland types.  相似文献   

2013年芦山M_S7.0地震的地震地质 灾害和发震断裂探讨     

洪海春  许汉刚  宋峰  章熙海  李国浩 《地震学报》2013,35(5):738-748

在对2013年4月20日芦山M_S7.0地震灾区大量地震地质灾害实地考察及调查的基础上, 总结了滑坡、 崩塌、 砂土液化、 地裂缝、 地表变形等地震地质灾害的分布及发育特点, 探讨了地震地质灾害与发震断裂之间的关系. 极震区和重灾区的崩塌和滑坡特别严重, 是地震巨大破坏作用的外在表现形式; 砂土液化点较少, 分布范围和规模有限; 地裂缝和地表变形并非真正意义上的地震地表破裂带. 根据极震区和重灾区地震地质灾害的分布和发育特点, 认为芦山地震最有可能的发震断裂为龙门山前山断裂的双石—大川断裂, 也有可能是龙门山山前隐伏断裂的大邑断裂, 还有可能是双石—大川断裂与大邑断裂两者共同触发的结果.   相似文献   

福建区域地震前兆台网观测系统升级改造     

陈彩虹  陈懿德  刘坚刚  张清秀 《地震地磁观测与研究》2013,34(3)

介绍福建区域地震前兆观测台网观测系统升级改造建设情况,阐述具体的实施改造以及仪器设备在系统接入改造中的一些关键技术问题,在并行期间通过数据对比总结改造效果,“九五”系统升级改造建设为前兆台网观测提供更完善的管理及数据服务.  相似文献   

万福井田水文地质特征及矿井涌水量预测     

张弘刚  周志宇  王虹  徐东晶 《吉林地质》2012,(4):120-123

在分析井田水文地质特征的基础上,对矿井的充水因素进行了论述,认为山西组砂岩、太原组第三层灰岩属煤层开采的直接充水含水层,对煤层开采有直接影响。采用了地下水动力学中的"大井法"对矿井的涌水量进行了预测,得到正常涌水量为286 m3/h,最大涌水量为405 m3/h的结果,为万福井田及其它煤矿的安全生产提供了重要的依据和借鉴的价值。  相似文献   

东海沿海季节性海平面异常成因   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王慧  刘克修  齐冬梅  高志刚  范文静  张增健  王国松 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(3):21-29

Based on the analysis of sea level, air temperature, sea surface temperature(SST), air pressure and wind data during 1980–2013, the causes of seasonal sea level anomalies in the coastal region of the East China Sea(ECS) are investigated. The research results show:(1) sea level along the coastal region of the ECS takes on strong seasonal variation. The annual range is 30–45 cm, larger in the north than in the south. From north to south, the phase of sea level changes from 140° to 231°, with a difference of nearly 3 months.(2) Monthly mean sea level(MSL)anomalies often occur from August to next February along the coast region of the ECS. The number of sea level anomalies is at most from January to February and from August to October, showing a growing trend in recent years.(3) Anomalous wind field is an important factor to affect the sea level variation in the coastal region of the ECS. Monthly MSL anomaly is closely related to wind field anomaly and air pressure field anomaly. Wind-driven current is essentially consistent with sea surface height. In August 2012, the sea surface heights at the coastal stations driven by wind field have contributed 50%–80% of MSL anomalies.(4) The annual variations for sea level,SST and air temperature along the coastal region of the ECS are mainly caused by solar radiation with a period of12 months. But the correlation coefficients of sea level anomalies with SST anomalies and air temperature anomalies are all less than 0.1.(5) Seasonal sea level variations contain the long-term trends and all kinds of periodic changes. Sea level oscillations vary in different seasons in the coastal region of the ECS. In winter and spring, the oscillation of 4–7 a related to El Ni?o is stronger and its amplitude exceeds 2 cm. In summer and autumn, the oscillations of 2–3 a and quasi 9 a are most significant, and their amplitudes also exceed 2 cm. The height of sea level is lifted up when the different oscillations superposed. On the other hand, the height of sea level is fallen down.  相似文献   

一种实用海洋浮标数据异常值质控方法     

刘首华  陈满春  董明媚  高志刚  张建立  武双全  林峰竹 《海洋通报》2016,35(3):264-270

针对海洋浮标的波高观测数据,通过结合格拉布斯准则(Grubbs)、局地异常值检验方法和波高观测误差控制建立了一种实用的数据异常值质控方法并对波高观测异常值进行了质控效果检验。结果表明,该质控方法由于加入了波高观测误差控制,从而避免了将大量正常数据误判为异常数据,异常数据判断的准确率达到了较高水准。另外该方法也可以作为一种实用质控方法推广使用于其他海洋浮标观测要素。  相似文献   

基于证据加权模型的青海拉陵灶火地区矿产靶区预测及效果评价研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

林楠  陈永良  路来君  姜琦刚  吴梦红 《地球学报》2016,37(6):756-762

当代矿产资源评价是复杂高维非线性系统的建模与评价过程,建立能够描述综合信息间复杂关系的多元非线性统计模型并预测矿产靶区,对矿产勘查具有重要指导意义。本文基于GIS软件平台,将证据加权模型应用于青海拉陵灶火地区矿产靶区预测,提取研究区成矿地质背景信息,遥感地质信息,地球化学异常信息等17种致矿综合信息,建立研究区矿产靶区预测模型,绘制成矿后验概率分布图,并利用ROC曲线分析方法对预测结果进行效果评价,根据ROC曲线的TP率和FP率计算圈定矿产靶区概率阈值,对研究区矿产靶区进行了圈定,结果表明证据加权和ROC曲线分析相结合圈定的成矿靶区与已知矿点分布较为吻合,该方法用于矿产靶区预测具有一定的可行性。  相似文献   

Design and Test of 1/5th Scale Horizontal Axis Tidal Current Turbine     

刘宏伟  周宏宾  林勇刚  李伟  顾海港 《海洋工程》2016,(3):407-420

Tidal current energy is prominent and renewable. Great progress has been made in the exploitation technology of tidal current energy all over the world in recent years, and the large scale device has become the trend of tidal current turbine (TCT) for its economies. Instead of the similarity to the wind turbine, the tidal turbine has the characteristics of high hydrodynamic efficiency, big thrust, reliable sealing system, tight power transmission structure, etc. In this paper, a 1/5th scale horizontal axis tidal current turbine has been designed, manufactured and tested before the full scale device design. Firstly, the three-blade horizontal axis rotor was designed based on traditional blade element momentum theory and its hydrodynamic performance was predicted in numerical model. Then the power train system and stand-alone electrical control unit of tidal current turbine, whose performances were accessed through the bench test carried out in workshop, were designed and presented. Finally, offshore tests were carried out and the power performance of the rotor was obtained and compared with the published literatures, and the results showed that the power coefficient was satisfactory, which agrees with the theoretical predictions.  相似文献