A SIMILARITY SCHEME FOR QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION OF TYPHOONS     

钟元  潘劲松  朱红  陈卫锋  陈世春  梁明珠 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(3):322-331

A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites.Using the initial parameters,weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products,the scheme constructs multivariate,objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of forecast.Through defining a non-linear similarity index,this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar samples.The historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon rainfall.Samples resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple criteria.Trial tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill.  相似文献   

SOME ASPECTS OF OBJECTIVE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION     

钟元 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1997,3(2):208-214

As shown in a statistical analysis of the relationship between environmental fields at varied timeand tropical cyclone motion, the forecasting ability of the initisl environmental field predictors for tropical cyclone motion decreases with the increase of valid time period of forecast;it is higher with these predictors at a fUture time than at an initial time. The work also indicates that for the tropical cyclone motion over a given period of valid forecast, better predictors appear at times mostly differing from thevalid periods; for periods at 48-120 h the environmental predictors at 48-72 h are more capable of forecasting. With statistical interpretation of NWP products, a predictive model for tropical cyclone motionis superior in performance over a statistical forecasting model that employes predictors of the initial field in the basic framework. The concluding remarks can be used as reference in the construction of an objective prediction model for tropical cyclone motion.  相似文献   

穿越副高北上的台风路径与环境场的关系     

钟元  金一鸣  李汉惠  蔡金祥  祝荣霖 《热带气象学报》1992,(2):160-168

对穿越副高北上的台风路径与环境场的多种参数的关系进行统计分析表明:初始环境场某些参数的一定分布与变化有利于台风未来偏北移行,穿越副高。这些参数可作为预报穿越副高北上台风路径的有效因子,其中某些参数还对穿越副高北上台风路径具有较长时效的预报意义。   相似文献   

东海热带气旋登陆后转向入海问题的探讨     

钟元  滕卫平  滕舟  胡波  董美莹 《海洋预报》2012,29(2):14-24

应用合成分析及相关分析方法研究了影响热带气旋登陆后转向入海路径趋势的若干因素,结果表明:登陆后转向入海路径趋势随时间和登陆地点的变化分布说明热带气旋登陆后路径仍受基本气流的引导和制约;热带气旋登陆时的惯性和地转力的变化对热带气旋登陆后的路径趋势有一定影响;环境场对热带气旋登陆后转向入海路径有较大影响,尤其对流层中层流场对登陆后的热带气旋的移动仍有明显的引导作用;中国东部至黄海区域是环境场影响热带气旋登陆后转向入海路径趋势的关键区,当区域内西北太平洋副热带高压加强西伸,西风槽北撤,则热带气旋登陆后在副高南侧东风气流引导下向内陆西行至消亡,当区域内副高减弱东退,西风槽南压,则热带气旋登陆后受副高西侧偏南气流与西风槽前西南气流引导转向入海;登陆后18—36h是转向入海路径趋势受环境场影响的敏感时段。  相似文献   

穿越副高北上的台风路径与环境场的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

钟元  金一鸣 《热带气象》1992,8(2):160-168

  相似文献   

中期(旬)天气客观相似预报方案   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

钟元  祝荣霖 《气象学报》1991,49(4):553-558

目前,中期数值天气预报的最长可用的预报时效约为6—7天,对中期数值预报输出产品进行统计释用的MOS,PP等方法制作的逐日具体天气预报的最长可用时效约为5—6天。要完全靠以上客观预报方法进行10天天气变化过程预报仍有待时日。为此,本文提出一个综合考虑中期数值天气预报输出产品及历史天气过程的旬天气客观相似预报方案。本方案用500 hPa候平均高度场在预报时刻前后连  相似文献   

造雨的人们——人工降雨小史     

钟元 《浙江气象》1980,(3)

人们在追溯人工降雨的历史时,发现人类求雨的念头在很早以前就产生了。可是,人们直到一九四六年才成功地进行了第一次人工降雨。远古时期,人们曾用种种办法来求雨,例如唱歌,吟诗念咒,焚烧奇特的东西以至宰杀生灵,被杀死祭天的不仅有各种动物,甚至包括人。长时间来,人们不知道雨究竟从何而来。后来,虽然早已知道海洋与湖泊表面的水蒸发,以水汽的形式进入大气层并成为大气的一个组成部份,水汽又在大气中凝结成云,雨从云中下落,然而,雨滴形成的机制  相似文献   

AN OBJECTIVE PREDICTION SCHEME FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALLS IN EASTERN CHINA     

钟元  胡波 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2002,8(1):63-74

The landfall of tropical cyclones in the eastern part of China falls in the category of small probability events. Constructing a step function with intervals adequately divided can help reflect the non-linear distribution of conditional probability for a landfall event. For the prediction of landfall event probability, factors applying the step function in transformation are superior to the standardized factors that are linearly related. The prediction scheme discussed in the work uses transformation factors of step function to formulate prediction models for tropical cyclones making landfalls in eastern China, through screening with non-linear correlative ratios and REEP analysis. Classified models for statistic-synoptics, statistic -climatology and statistic-dynamics have been constructed using initial field data and numerical prediction output. Forecasting skills have been improved due to ensemble of predictions using these classified models. As shown in forecasting evaluations and experiments, the scheme is capable of predicting tropical cyclones that make landfalls in eastern China.  相似文献   

AN IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

金一鸣  钟元 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1997,3(2):152-158

In this paper, a statistical interpretation composite forecast model for typhoon track is set up by using numerical forecast products and several forecast schemes. Tested in 1994 typhoon season, its forecastperformance is much better than that of a previous statistical forecast model. The test shows that it is aneffective method that sufficiently Anproves objective forecast of typhoon track using the numerical forecast output products obtained in forecast and adopting several schemes in composition.  相似文献   

台风路径统计预报的改进   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

金一鸣  钟元 《热带气象学报》1997,13(2):125-130

应用数值预报产品并采用多种预报方案相结合建立了台风路径的统计释用综合预报模式，从而提高了台风路径预报的技巧。经１９９４年台风季节业务试用，其预报性能比原有的统计预报模式有较大的提高，试验表明，充分利用在预报时可得到的数值预报输出产品的采用多种方案集成是改进台风路径客观的有效途径。  相似文献