The art of adaptation: Living with climate change in the rural American Southwest     

Julie Brugger  Michael Crimmins 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1830-1840

As adaptation has come to the forefront in climate change discourse, research, and policy, it is crucial to consider the effects of how we interpret the concept. This paper draws attention to the need for interpretations that foster policies and institutions with the breadth and flexibility to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Social scientists have argued that, in practice, the standard definition of adaptation tends to prioritize economic over other values and technical over social responses, draw attention away from underlying causes of vulnerability and from the broader context in which adaptive responses take place, and exclude discussions of inequality, justice, and transformation. In this paper, we discuss an alternate understanding of adaptation, which we label “living with climate change,” that emerged from an ethnographic study of how rural residents of the U.S. Southwest understand, respond to, and plan for weather and climate in their daily lives, and we consider how it might inform efforts to develop a more comprehensive definition. The discussion brings into focus several underlying features of this lay conception of adaptation, which are crucial for understanding how adaptation actually unfolds on the ground: an ontology based on nature–society mutuality; an epistemology based on situated knowledge; practice based on performatively adjusting human activities to a dynamic biophysical and social environment; and a placed-based system of values. We suggest that these features help point the way toward a more comprehensive understanding of climate change adaptation, and one more fully informed by the understanding that we are living in the Anthropocene.  相似文献   

Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM     

Katherine Calvin  Marshall Wise  Leon Clarke  Jae Edmonds  Page Kyle  Patrick Luckow  Allison Thomson 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):545-560

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.  相似文献   

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment     

Allison?M.?ThomsonEmail author  Robert?A.?Brown  Norman?J.?Rosenberg  R.?Cesar?Izaurralde  Verel?Benson 《Climatic change》2005,69(1):43-65

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.  相似文献   

Using analytic element models to delineate drinking water source protection areas     

Raymond HA  Bondoc M  McGinnis J  Metropulos K  Heider P  Reed A  Saines S 《Ground water》2006,44(1):16-23

Since 1999, Ohio EPA hydrogeologists have used two analytic element models (AEMs), the proprietary software GFLOW and U.S. EPA's WhAEM, to delineate protection areas for 535 public water systems. Both models now use the GFLOW2001 solution engine, integrate well with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, have a user-friendly graphical interface, are capable of simulating a variety of complex hydrogeologic settings, and do not rely upon a model grid. These features simplify the modeling process and enable AEMs to bridge the gap between existing simplistic delineation methods and more complex numerical models. Ohio EPA hydrogeologists demonstrated that WhAEM2000 and GFLOW2000 were capable of producing capture zones similar to more widely accepted models by applying the AEMs to eight sites that had been previously delineated using other methods. After the Ohio EPA delineated protection areas using AEMs, more simplistic delineation methods used by other states (volumetric equation and arbitrary fixed radii) were applied to the same water systems to compare the differences between various methods. GIS software and two-tailed paired t-tests were used to quantify the differences in protection areas and analyze the data. The results of this analysis demonstrate that AEMs typically produce significantly different protection areas than the most simplistic delineation methods, in terms of total area and shape. If the volumetric equation had been used instead of AEMs, Ohio would not have protected 265 km2 of critical upgradient area and would have overprotected 269 km2 of primarily downgradient land. Since an increasing number of land-use restrictions are being tied to drinking water protection areas, this analysis has broad policy implications.  相似文献   

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Keywan Riahi  Richard Moss  Jae Edmonds  Allison Thomson  Nebojsa Nakicenovic  Tom Kram  Frans Berkhout  Rob Swart  Anthony Janetos  Steven K. Rose  Nigel Arnell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):21-35

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.  相似文献   

Land surface coupling in regional climate simulations of the West African monsoon   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

Allison L. Steiner  Jeremy S. Pal  Sara A. Rauscher  Jason L. Bell  Noah S. Diffenbaugh  Aaron Boone  Lisa C. Sloan  Filippo Giorgi 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(6):869-892

Coupling of the Community Land Model (CLM3) to the ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) substantially improves the simulation of mean climate over West Africa relative to an older version of RegCM3 coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). Two 10-year simulations (1992–2001) show that the seasonal timing and magnitude of mean monsoon precipitation more closely match observations when the new land surface scheme is implemented. Specifically, RegCM3–CLM3 improves the timing of the monsoon advance and retreat across the Guinean Coast, and reduces a positive precipitation bias in the Sahel and Northern Africa. As a result, simulated temperatures are higher, thereby reducing the negative temperature bias found in the Guinean Coast and Sahel in RegCM3–BATS. In the RegCM3–BATS simulation, warmer temperatures in northern latitudes and wetter soils near the coast create excessively strong temperature and moist static energy gradients, which shifts the African Easterly Jet further north than observed. In the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation, the migration and position of the African Easterly Jet more closely match reanalysis winds. This improvement is triggered by drier soil conditions in the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation and an increase in evapotranspiration per unit precipitation. These results indicate that atmosphere–land surface coupling has the ability to impact regional-scale circulation and precipitation in regions exhibiting strong hydroclimatic gradients.  相似文献   

Using the minimum spanning tree to trace mass segregation     

Richard J. Allison  Simon P. Goodwin  Richard J. Parker  Simon F. Portegies Zwart  Richard de Grijs  M. B. N. Kouwenhoven 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(3):1449-1454

We present a new method to detect and quantify mass segregation in star clusters. It compares the minimum spanning tree (MST) of massive stars with that of random stars. If mass segregation is present, the MST length of the most massive stars will be shorter than that of random stars. This difference can be quantified (with an associated significance) to measure the degree of mass segregation. We test the method on simulated clusters in both 2D and 3D and show that the method works as expected.
We apply the method to the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC) and show that the method is able to detect the mass segregation in the Trapezium with a 'mass segregation ratio (MSR)'  Λ_MSR= 8.0 ± 3.5  (where  Λ_MSR= 1  is no mass segregation) down to  16 M_⊙  , and also that the ONC is mass segregated at a lower level  (∼2.0 ± 0.5)  down to  5 M_⊙  . Below  5 M_⊙  we find no evidence for any further mass segregation in the ONC.  相似文献   

Verification of tropical cyclone deposits with oxygen isotope analyses of coeval ostracod valves     

Chad S. Lane  Brooklyn Hildebrandt  Lisa M. Kennedy  Allison LeBlanc  Kam-Biu Liu  Amy J. Wagner  Andrea D. Hawkes 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2017,57(3):245-255

Reconstruction of prehistoric tropical cyclone (TC) activity often relies on the identification of distinctive overwash deposits (tempestites) in coastal lagoon sediments. Similar sediment deposits, however, can result from high-energy events other than TCs. In this study we assessed the utility of using the geochemistry of ostracod valves, specifically their stable oxygen isotope composition (δ¹⁸O), as a potential validation variable that could reduce the chances of misidentifying an overwash deposit as having been generated by a TC, when in fact it formed from another high-energy depositional process (type 1 error). We applied this technique to a sediment core recovered from Laguna Alejandro, Dominican Republic, which had already been analyzed for other sedimentary TC proxies. Negative δ¹⁸O anomalies identified in the ostracod valve stable isotope record are associated with TC deposits and are most easily explained by large influxes of ¹⁸O-depleted meteoric waters typical of intense tropical storms. There is potential for this technique to be used to identify TC landfalls that are not represented by overwash deposits. We, however, propose a more conservative approach and suggest this technique be used to validate the origin of a storm deposit and reduce the odds of a type 1 error.  相似文献   

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE CAUSES OF THE ANNUAL VARIATION OF MEAN SEA-LEVEL IN THE NORTH SEA     

N. W. Allison  M.Sc. 《Geophysical Journal International》1947,5(S5):146-157

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Study of Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects and Auto-conversion Processes over the West African Monsoon Region Using a Regional Climate Model     

Zeinab SALAH  Ahmed SHALABY  Allison L.STEINER  Ashraf S.ZAKEY  Ritesh GAUTAM  Mohamed M.ABDEL WAHAB 《大气科学进展》2018,35(2):182-194

This study assesses the direct and indirect effects of natural and anthropogenic aerosols(e.g., black carbon and sulfate)over West and Central Africa during the West African monsoon(WAM) period(June–July–August). We investigate the impacts of aerosols on the amount of cloudiness, the influences on the precipitation efficiency of clouds, and the associated radiative forcing(direct and indirect). Our study includes the implementation of three new formulations of auto-conversion parameterization [namely, the Beheng(BH), Tripoli and Cotton(TC) and Liu and Daum(R6) schemes] in Reg CM4.4.1,besides the default model's auto-conversion scheme(Kessler). Among the new schemes, BH reduces the precipitation wet bias by more than 50% over West Africa and achieves a bias reduction of around 25% over Central Africa. Results from detailed sensitivity experiments suggest a significant path forward in terms of addressing the long-standing issue of the characteristic wet bias in Reg CM. In terms of aerosol-induced radiative forcing, the impact of the various schemes is found to vary considerably(ranging from-5 to-25 W m~(-2)).  相似文献