A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments     

Julie A. Winkler  Suzanne Thornsbury  Marco Artavia  Frank-M. Chmielewski  Dieter Kirschke  Sangjun Lee  Malgorzata Liszewska  Scott Loveridge  Pang-Ning Tan  Sharon Zhong  Jeffrey A. Andresen  J. Roy Black  Robert Kurlus  Denys Nizalov  Nicole Olynk  Zbigniew Ustrnul  Costanza Zavalloni  Jeanne M. Bisanz  Géza Bujdosó  Lesley Fusina  Yvonne Henniges  Peter Hilsendegen  Katarzyna Lar  Lukasz Malarzewski  Thordis Moeller  Roman Murmylo  Tadeusz Niedzwiedz  Olena Nizalova  Haryono Prawiranata  Nikki Rothwell  Jenni van Ravensway  Harald von Witzke  Mollie Woods 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):445-470

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.  相似文献   

东北太平洋Explorer Ridge热液羽状流位温浊度异常和物质能量通量估算     

郭双喜  鲁远征  岑显荣  屈玲  Sharon L. Walker  周生启 《海洋学报》2017,39(12):1-11

深海热液流体与周围海水之间存在明显的物理和化学差异,通过检测海水的位温浊度异常是探测深海热液活动的重要手段之一。本文采用"海底火山带项目（Submarine Ring of Fire 2002）"拖曳式温盐深测量仪数据资料,研究了东北太平洋Explorer Ridge热液场的水文特征及物质能量通量的释放。结果表明Explorer Ridge热液场热液羽状流中性浮力层所在深度范围约为1 600~1 900 m,距离海底的高度约为200 m,最大位温、盐度和浊度异常分别为0.04℃、0.004和0.18 NTU;中性浮力层热液羽状流帽呈椭圆结构,其长轴与洋中脊线重合,羽状流帽总面积约为27 km2;热液羽状流在中性层范围内存在明显的分层现象,通过经验公式计算得到Explorer Ridge热液场观测范围内热液喷口的总的浮力通量为6.19×10-2 m4/s3,平均值为2.063×10-2 m4/s3;总的体积通量为9.884×10-2 m3/s,平均值为3.295×10-2 m3/s;总的热通量为194.9 MW,平均值为64.967 MW。  相似文献   

Performance of a Grey Water Pilot Plant Using a Multi‐Layer Filter for Agricultural Purposes in the Jordan Valley          下载免费PDF全文

Ayoup M. Ghrair  Othman A. Al‐Mashaqbeh  Sharon B. Megdal 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2015,43(3):351-359

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Sharp-based, tide-dominated deltas of the Sego Sandstone, Book Cliffs, Utah, USA     

Brian J. Willis  & Sharon Gabel 《Sedimentology》2001,48(3):479-506

The lower part of the Cretaceous Sego Sandstone Member of the Mancos Shale in east‐central Utah contains three 10‐ to 20‐m thick layers of tide‐deposited sandstone arranged in a forward‐ and then backward‐stepping stacking pattern. Each layer of tidal sandstone formed during an episode of shoreline regression and transgression, and offshore wave‐influenced marine deposits separating these layers formed after subsequent shoreline transgression and marine ravinement. Detailed facies architecture studies of these deposits suggest sandstone layers formed on broad tide‐influenced river deltas during a time of fluctuating relative sea‐level. Shale‐dominated offshore marine deposits gradually shoal and become more sandstone‐rich upward to the base of a tidal sandstone layer. The tidal sandstones have sharp erosional bases that formed as falling relative sea‐level allowed tides to scour offshore marine deposits. The tidal sandstones were deposited as ebb migrating tidal bars aggraded on delta fronts. Most delta top deposits were stripped during transgression. Where the distal edge of a deltaic sandstone is exposed, a sharp‐based stack of tidal bar deposits successively fines upward recording a landward shift in deposition after maximum lowstand. Where more proximal parts of a deltaic‐sandstone are exposed, a sharp‐based upward‐coarsening succession of late highstand tidal bar deposits is locally cut by fluvial valleys, or tide‐eroded estuaries, formed during relative sea‐level lowstand or early stages of a subsequent transgression. Estuary fills are highly variable, reflecting local depositional processes and variable rates of sediment supply along the coastline. Lateral juxtaposition of regressive deltaic deposits and incised transgressive estuarine fills produced marked facies changes in sandstone layers along strike. Estuarine fills cut into the forward‐stepped deltaic sandstone tend to be more deeply incised and richer in sandstone than those cut into the backward‐stepped deltaic sandstone. Tidal currents strongly influenced deposition during both forced regression and subsequent transgression of shorelines. This contrasts with sandstones in similar basinal settings elsewhere, which have been interpreted as tidally influenced only in transgressive parts of depositional successions.  相似文献   

Compressibility of P2O5-Al2O3-Na2SiO3 melts     

Sharon Webb  Philippe Courtial 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1996,23(3):205-211

The effect of composition and temperature on the relaxed adiabatic bulk modulus of melts in the P₂O₅-Al₂O ₃-Na₂SiO₃ system have been investigated in the temperature range of 1140 to 1450 °C using ultrasonic interferometric methods at frequencies of 3, 5 and 7 MHz. The density of these melts was determined using Pt-double-bob Archimedean densitometry techiques. P₂O₅ is known to dramatically affect the structure and the chemical and physical properties of granitic and pegmatitic melts as a function of the peralkalinity of the melt. The physical results of the structural changes occurring in Na₂O-Al₂O₃-SiO₂ melt upon the addition of P₂O₅ are observed by variations in the properties such as density and compressibility. For the present peralkaline melts, the bulk modulus and density decrease with addition of 15 mol% P₂O₅, and increase with the addition of 15 mol% Al₂O₃. The addition of P₂O₅ to the present melts results in a larger increase in melt compressibility than that observed with increasing polymerization between Na₂SiO₃ and Na₂Si₂O₅ melts. This would suggest that not only is the polymerization of the melt increasing with the addition of P₂O₅ (Mysen et al. 1981; Nelson and Tallant 1984; Gan and Hess 1992), but that the tetrahedrally co-ordinated phosphorus complexes are influencing the bond lengths and energies within the melt structure; resulting in the structure becoming more compressible than expected, although incompressible (Vaughan and Weidner 1987) tetrahedral P₂O₅ polyhedra (Mysen et al. 1981; Gan and Hess 1992; Toplis et al. 1994) are being added to the melt structure.  相似文献   

A Semi-Quantitative, Regional Precipitation Data Set for Studying African Climates of the Nineteenth Century, Part I. Overview of the Data Set     

Sharon E. Nicholson 《Climatic change》2001,50(3):317-353

This article describes a historical archive of proxy and actual precipitation data that extends the African climate record back to the early nineteenth century. The `proxy' archive includes verbal, documentary references which contain information related to rainfall conditions, such as references to famine, drought, agriculture or the nature of the rainy season. The precipitation archive includes all observations made in Africa during the nineteenth century. It consists of records for 60 stations in Algeria, 87 stations in South Africa and 304 stations scattered over the rest of Africa. Information is particularly plentiful for the 1880s and 1890s. The two parts have been be combined into a semi-quantitative regional data set indicating annual rainfall conditions in terms of anomaly classes (e.g., normal, dry, wet). This data set extends from the early nineteenth century to 1900 and distinguishes seven anomaly classes, using numbers ranging from –3 to +3 to represent very wet, wet, good rains, normal, dry, drought, and severe drought. The regionalization is based on 90 geographical regions shown via studies of the modern precipitation record to be climatically homogeneous with respect to the interannual variability of rainfall. The regional aggregation allows the voluminous fragmentary information available in historical sources to be used systematically to produce multi-year time series that can be directly integrated into the modern record for each region. The resultant time series can also be subjected to statistical analysis, in order to investigate nineteenth century climate over Africa. Spatial detail is added to the data set by utilizing a unique methodology based on climatic teleconnections established from studies of rainfall variability over Africa. The historical information and station records have been combined into a file containing a regional anomaly value for up to 90 geographic regions and the years 1801–1900. Gaps necessarily remain in the matrix, but as early as the 1820s over 40 regions are represented. By the 1880s generally around 70 regions or more are represented.  相似文献   

DISCUSSION OF "Literature Review and Model (COMET) for Colloid/Metals Transport in Porous Media," by W. B. Mills, S. Liu, and F. K. Fong     

Sharon A. Mason  John Barkach  James Dragun 《Ground water》1992,30(1):104-106

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Regional coda magnitudes of underground nuclear explosions     

Avi Shapira 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1981,26(3):188-197

The concept of determining magnitudes, M_τ, of regional events (Δ < 1000 km) by means of coda-duration measurements is re-examined by using short-period vertical-component seismograms from Nevada Test Site explosions. The duration is specified as the time interval between the expected arrival of the S-wave and the time when coda waves fall and stay below 80 μm peak-to-peak ground displacement. The suggested procedure requires that for M_τ = 4.0 the coda duration at a distance of 100 km is 120 s. The adaptivity of the method is examined in terms of the single-station magnitude scatter, and with respect to the potential accuracy of the yield estimation of the explosions.The derived magnitude formula for underground nuclear explosions in granite is of the form: M_τ =0.18+0.001Δ+1.79 log τ+C_s, where C_s is a station correction coefficient for non-WWNSS stations.  相似文献   

Parachute-assisted gravity sediment corer (Algonquin Corer)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sharon Cushing  Julie Desjardins  Jean-Marc Filion 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1997,18(3):307-311

Details are outlined for the construction and use of an easily constructed and inexpensive parachute-assisted, gravity-driven, sediment coring device. This corer has been named the Algonquin corer since it was designed, tested and constructed at École Secondaire Algonquin, North Bay, Ontario. This corer utilizes an underwater parachute to effectively control and stabilize its descent, and a driving mechanism (hammer) to increase the penetration of the corer. Other innovative features are its corrective mercury and magnetic switches, which allow the user to precisely monitor both the position of the driving mechanism and the corer's angle of sediment penetration. These optional features may be constructed for use with this particular corer or constructed separately to enhance existing coring devices. Details of these features are provided and their functions outlined. The versatile features, cost-effectiveness and ease of construction of the Algonquin corer make it an effective and practical tool for conducting sediment analysis studies at all levels. It is also well suited for the instruction of coring techniques and paleolimnological methods at both the university and high school level.  相似文献   

The elasticity of the upper mantle orthosilicates olivine and garnet to 3 GPa     

Sharon L. Webb 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1989,16(7):684-692

The elastic moduli of single crystals of pyrope-rich garnet and San Carlos olivine have been measured over a 3 GPa pressure range at room temperature. The combination of improved ultrasonic techniques and this large pressure range provide for more reliable characterization of the pressure dependence of acoustic wave velocities than has previously been possible. First and second pressure derivatives of the velocities have been determined within 1 percent and 10 percent respectively. The Hashin-Shtrikman bounds for the pressure dependences of the bulk and shear moduli of the garnet used in this study are; K = 173.6 GPa, K = 4.93, K = –0.28 GPa^–1, G= 94.9 GPa, G = 1.56, G = –0.08 GPa^–1 and the Hashin-Shtrikman least-upper bounds and greatestlower bounds for the pressure dependences of the bulk and shear moduli of the San Carlos olivine are K=129.8 GPa, K = 4.66, K= –0.15 GPa^–1, G = 77.8 GPa, G = 1.93, G = –0.11 GPa^–1 and K = 129.2 GPa, K = 4.63, K= –0.15 GPa^–1 G = 77.3 GPa, G=1.96, G = –0.11 GPa^–1 respectively. The determination of the room-pressure elastic moduli of this pyrope-almandine garnet removes the previously observed anomaly in the predictions of systematic treatments of variations of the elastic moduli of garnets with composition. The determination of the second pressure derivatives of the moduli of garnet and olivine illustrates the importance of these terms in extrapolations to higher pressures — with K/P for these crystals being reduced by 17 percent and 9 percent respectively over the 3 GPa pressure range.  相似文献