基于暴雨内涝模型的天津市西青区中小河流暴雨洪涝灾害评估     

陈靖  高强  李培彦  解以扬  王秀俊  刘志杰  韩玥 《气象科技》2019,47(1):147-153

利用ARCGIS对天津市西青区的高精度地理信息数据、排水设施和排水方式进行预处理,以西青区下垫面和明渠河道的水流运动为模拟对象,建立天津市西青区中小河流暴雨洪涝仿真模型。以区内14条二级河道的水位变化作为模型的动态侧边界条件,针对2016年7月20日的大暴雨过程,设计了4个模拟方案,对河道高水位及暴雨造成的洪涝淹没过程进行评估,并将模拟结果与实际调查内涝灾情进行对比,结果表明,模型可以较客观地反映暴雨和河道水位变化对城镇造成的内涝灾害情况。  相似文献   

碳市场顶层设计路线图     

邹骥  柴麒敏  陈济  傅莎  葛兴安  胡敏  李昂  林丹妮  林殷  刘冬惠  刘俊伶  刘爽  祁悦  王克  王庶  张俊杰 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(3):217-221

中国正面临着低碳减排和保持经济增速的双重挑战。为利用碳排放权交易机制以最低的社会成本实现减排目标,我国自2013年起开始建设碳排放权交易试点,并于2017年12月起宣布正式启动全国碳市场。然而碳市场的顶层设计不可一蹴而就,需要在我国宏观经济改革的大背景下分阶段逐步推进。短期（2020年前）碳市场建设重在强化产权制度建设,完善市场交易基础。中期（2021—2030年）碳市场建设要形成活跃的市场氛围,充分降低我国的温室气体达峰成本。长期（2031—2050年）碳市场建设要形成稳定上升的碳价趋势,为我国的低碳转型提供长期动力。  相似文献   

六盘山区夏秋季大气水汽和液态水特征初步分析     

田磊  桑建人  姚展予  常倬林  单新兰  曹宁  孙艳桥 《气象与环境学报》2019,35(6):28-37

六盘山区是中国典型的农牧交错带和生态脆弱带,也是黄土高原重要的水源涵养地、生态保护区及国家级扶贫开发区。利用2017年6-11月隆德气象站地基多通道微波辐射计资料,结合同期平凉探空站及隆德地面降水等观测资料,分析了六盘山区夏秋季大气水汽、液态水变化特征。结果表明：六盘山区夏秋季在降水天气背景下,大气水汽含量和液态水含量均较高,分别为无降水天气背景下的1.4倍和7.0倍;降水天气背景下水汽在5000 m以下有明显的增加,且在此高度范围内的水汽密度随高度的递减率比无降水天气背景下明显偏小;各高度层的液态水相比无降水天气背景下均有明显增大,除6月外,主峰值均出现在0℃层高度层以下。六盘山区夏秋季各月中,6-9月。大气水汽含量高值区均出现在正午到傍晚时段,低值区均出现在日出前后;液态水含量在日出前、午后及傍晚分别出现峰值,最明显的峰值出现在午后。对一次对流性降水天气过程分析后发现,降水发生前40 min大气水汽含量和液态水含量出现两次明显的跃增,水汽向上输送不断加强,2500-7500 m高度的相对湿度明显增大。  相似文献   

A Numerical Investigation on Microphysical Properties of Clouds and Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau in Summer 2014     

Jie TANG  Xueliang GUO  Yi CHANG 《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019,(3):463-477

In order to improve our understanding of microphysical properties of clouds and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), six cloud and precipitation processes with different intensities during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Science Experiment (TIPEX-Ⅲ) from 3 July to 25 July 2014 in Naqu region of the TP are investigated by using the high-resolution mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show unique properties of summertime clouds and precipitation processes over the TP. The initiation process of clouds is closely associated with strong solar radiative heating in the daytime, and summertime clouds and precipitation show an obvious diurnal variation. Generally, convective clouds would transform into stratiform clouds with an obvious bright band and often produce strong rainfall in midnight. The maximum cloud top can reach more than 15 km above sea level and the velocity of updraft ranges from 10 to 40 m s-1. The simulations show high amount of supercooled water content primarily located between 0 and -20℃ layer in all the six cases. Ice crystals mainly form above the level of -20℃ and even appear above the level of -40℃ within strong convective clouds. Rainwater mostly appears below the melting layer, indicating that its formation mainly depends on the melting process of precipitable ice particles. Snow and graupel particles have the characteristics of high content and deep vertical distribution, showing that the ice phase process is very active in the development of clouds and precipitation. The conversion and formation of hydrometeors and precipitation over the plateau exhibit obvious characteristics. Surface precipitation is mainly formed by the melting of graupel particles. Although the warm cloud microphysical process has less direct contribution to the formation of surface precipitation, it is important for the formation of supercooled raindrops, which are essential for the formation of graupel embryos through heterogeneous freezing process. The growth of graupel particles mainly relies on the riming process with supercooled cloud water and aggregation of snow particles.  相似文献   

The Representativeness of Air Quality Monitoring Sites in the Urban Areas of a Mountainous City     

Minjin MA  Yue CHEN  Fan DING  Zhaoxia PU  Xudong LIANG 《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019,(2)

Lanzhou is a typical mountainous city with severe air pollution in northwestern China. This study uses hourly observational data of air pollutants at five air quality monitoring sites in Lanzhou from July to December 2015 to discuss data quality control and the representativeness of the monitoring sites(four urban sites and one suburban site). A fuzzy matrix is applied to study primary air pollutants. The results show that of the six routinely monitored pollutants,the primary pollutant is PM_10 during the study period. Based on lag correlation analysis and one-way analysis of variance, it is concluded that there are redundant observations at the four urban sites for the timely diffusion and transport of air pollutants from the same general area. The coefficient of divergence(COD) method is then used to evaluate the spatial distribution differences, and the primary air pollutant PM_10 shows differences at each site. COD can be used as a positive indicator to describe site representativeness. To evaluate the overall air pollution in the valley, correlation analysis is performed between the PM_10 concentration retrieved from aerosol optical depth satellite data and the concentration from the four urban monitoring sites. Among these, the correlation between the workers' hospital site data and the retrieval data is the highest, passing the 90% confidence level. A new representative evaluation model for air quality monitoring sites, R_s = 0.77 COD + 0.23R_(retrieval), is established by using COD and correlation coefficients between routine observations and satellite retrieval products. From this model, it can be concluded that the biological products institute site in Lanzhou is the most representative site for the evaluation of air pollution out of the four urban air quality monitoring sites from July to December 2015.  相似文献   

长岛县旅游气候舒适度分析     

马端良  姜茹茵  伯玥  陈星宇 《内蒙古气象》2019,(2):27-30

气候舒适度是影响一个地区旅游资源开发和发展以及旅游季节游客数量的重要因素。利用长岛国家基本气象站1986—2015年的气温、降水、风速、相对湿度和日照时数等与旅游气候舒适度相关的气象观测资料,对山东省烟台市长岛县气候舒适度进行研究计算,划分出长岛适宜于旅游的季节分布;结合2011—2015年长岛县游客的月统计资料,分析研究长岛旅游气候舒适度与游客数量之间对应关系。结果表明:长岛县5—10月均较适宜旅游,其中最佳旅游时间段为6—9月,其他月份气候舒适度等级较低,基本不适合旅游。旅游游客数量与气候舒适度密切相关,综合气候舒适度指数每变化一个单位,长岛县游客数量月指数增加2.098个百分点。  相似文献   

Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jianping HUANG  Jieru MA  Xiaodan GUAN  Yue LI  Yongli HE 《大气科学进展》2019,36(9):922-937

This article reviews recent progress in semi-arid climate change research in China.Results indicate that the areas of semiarid regions have increased rapidly during recent years in China,with an increase of 33%during 1994-2008 compared to 1948-62.Studies have found that the expansion rate of semi-arid areas over China is nearly 10 times higher than that of arid and sub-humid areas,and is mainly transformed from sub-humid/humid regions.Meanwhile,the greatest warming during the past 100 years has been observed over semi-arid regions in China,and mainly induced by radiatively forced processes.The intensity of the regional temperature response over semi-arid regions has been amplified by land-atmosphere interactions and human activities.The decadal climate variation in semi-arid regions is modulated by oceanic oscillations,which induce land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts and affect the intensities of westerlies,planetary waves and blocking frequencies.In addition,the drier climates in semi-arid regions across China are also associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon in recent years.Moreover,dust aerosols in semi-arid regions may have altered precipitation by affecting the local energy and hydrological cycles.Finally,semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand in the 21st century,which will increase the risk of desertification in the near future.  相似文献   

一次冰雹天气过程的云系发展演变及云物理特征研究   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

张小娟  陶玥  刘国强  彭宇翔 《气象》2019,45(3):415-425

利用中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)的数值模拟,结合NECP/FNL再分析资料、地面、探空、多普勒雷达基数据和卫星产品等观测资料,综合分析了2014年3月30日发生在贵州省西南部的一次冰雹天气过程。研究了有利于冰雹发生的环流特征和环境条件,分析了冰雹云系的发展演变特征、云微物理结构特征,初步分析了冰雹形成的云物理机制。结果表明:此次冰雹天气是典型的低压辐合线型降雹类型,地面降雹位置位于700 hPa切变线和近地面辐合线附近及南侧;发生此次冰雹过程的对流云系经历了对流云系的初生阶段、合并加强阶段、成熟降雹阶段和东移阶段。贵州地区上空对流云系的微物理结构具有混合相云特征,高层为冰晶、雪,中层为云水、霰,低层为雨水、冰雹。霰和云水是形成雨水和冰雹的主要来源,霰撞冻过冷云水和霰的自动转化是冰雹形成的主要微物理机制。  相似文献   

车排子地区有利储层特征及控制因素     

苏越  孔令彦 《地质论评》2024,70(S1):21-22

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Explicit integration of a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils          下载免费PDF全文

Yue Zhang  Annan Zhou 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(17):2353-2382

An adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme is developed for a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils. The model is referred to as the modified σ –Θ model in this paper, which features the employment of the subloading surface plasticity and the stress–saturation approach. On numerical aspects, convex/nonconvex subloading surfaces in the σ –Θ space may result in incorrect loading–unloading decisions during the integration. A new loading–unloading decision method is developed here to solve the problem and then embedded into the explicit integration scheme for the modified σ –Θ model. In addition, to enhance the accuracy of the explicit integration, local errors from both hydraulic and mechanical components are included in the error control for each substep. A drift correction method is also developed to ensure the state point lies on the subloading surface in the σ –Θ space within a set error level. The performance of the loading–unloading decision method for the modified σ –Θ model is discussed through comparing it with the conventional loading–unloading decision method. The importance of involving the hydraulic component in the error control is also demonstrated. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme for the modified p–Θ model are also studied via several numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献