Simulating and mapping the risk of surge floods in multiple typhoon scenarios: a case study of Yuhuan County,Zhejiang Province,China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mengya?Li  Wei?Wu  Jun?WangEmail author  Zhumei?Che  Yali?Xie 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):645-659

We propose a scenario-based method for simulating and mapping the risk of surge floods for use by local authorities concerned with public safety and urban planning in coastal areas. Focusing on the triad of hazard, vulnerability and adaptation capability, we estimate the comprehensive risk and display its spatial distribution using the raster calculation tool in ArcGIS. The detailed methodology is introduced via a case study of Yuhuan, an island county in Zhejiang Province, China, which is frequently affected by typhoon storm surges. First, we designed 24 typhoon scenarios and modeled the flood process in each scenario using the hydrodynamic module of MIKE 21. Second, flood depth and area were used for hazard assessment; an authorized indicator system of land use categories and a survey of emergency shelters were used for vulnerability and adaptation capability assessment, respectively; and a quantified model was used for assessment of the comprehensive risk. Lastly, we used the GIS raster calculation tool for mapping the risk of storm surges in multiple typhoon scenarios. Our principal findings are as follows: (1) Seawalls are more likely to be overtopped or destroyed by more severe storm surges with increasing typhoon intensity. (2) Most of the residential areas with inadequate emergency shelters are highly vulnerable to flood events. (3) As projected in the risk mapping, if an exceptional typhoon with a central pressure of 915 or 925 hPa made a landfall in Yuhuan, a wide range of areas would be flooded and at high risk. (4) Determining optimal strategies based on identification of risk-inducing factors is the most effective way of promoting safe and sustainable development in coastal cities.  相似文献   

气汞的第一个同震效应记录   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

车用太  杨丽  何镧  鱼金子 《中国地震研究》2017,31(1):136-138

利用杭州超距科技有限公司最近研发的ATG-6138型测汞仪在云南省弥勒井气汞（Hg）观测中记录到尼泊尔8.1级地震的同震效应。这是我国气汞观测的第一个同震效应的纪录。这一事实表明了进一步提升地震地下流体化学量观测仪器的观测精度与采样率,有可能记录到固体潮与同震效应等更多的地壳动力作用信息,从而进一步提升其地震前兆监测能力。  相似文献   

Establishing absorbed energy spectra—an attenuation approach     

Chung‐Che Chou  Chia‐Ming Uang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2000,29(10):1441-1455

For energy‐based seismic design, energy demand in the form of absorbed energy spectra was established by an attenuation relationship. The absorbed energy is proposed for evaluating the energy demand in an inelastic system because the absorbed energy is directly related to the pseudo‐velocity in the elastic case. Based on a total of 273 ground motion records from 15 significant earthquakes in California, an attenuation relationship of the absorbed energy was established from a two‐stage non‐linear regression analysis. This relationship was established for a given earthquake magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, site class, and ductility factor. A similar expression for the normalized absorbed energy was also developed. This study showed that the absorbed energy for near‐field ground motions can be significantly larger than that predicted by the attenuation relationship for normal ground motions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

DO4事件的精确定年及亚旋回特征: 来自福建龙岩仙云洞石笋的证据^*          下载免费PDF全文

车印平  肖海燕  姜修洋  蔡炳贵 《古地理学报》2020,22(2):377-384

DO4事件(Dansgaard-Oeschger event 4,简称DO4事件)是发生在MIS3阶段后期的1次明显升温事件。根据福建仙云洞石笋(编号XYⅢ-28)300~500 mm层段6个高精度²³⁰Th年龄和188个氧同位素数据,获得了29.13~27.94 kyrB.P.时期平均分辨率达7 yr的东亚夏季风强度的演变过程数据。该石笋 δ¹⁸O 记录的DO4事件起止时间为28.83±0.06~28.46±0.06 kyr B.P.,持续时间为0.37±0.06 kyr。相对基于GICC05年层计数时标NGRIP冰芯 δ¹⁸O 记录在DO4开始阶段的突变特征,仙云洞石笋记录的DO4事件开始阶段 δ¹⁸O 值在145±60 yr内偏负0.4‰,表现为相对缓慢的变化特征,这说明仙云洞所处的中国东南沿海地区有可能受到热带低纬海气耦合的影响。此外,仙云洞石笋 δ¹⁸O 记录揭示了在DO4事件内部及附近存在一系列的百年至十年际尺度夏季风增强事件,与格陵兰冰芯 δ¹⁸O 记录、阿拉伯海海盆反照率记录的DO4事件亚旋回结构在定年误差范围内相对应,表明东亚夏季风强度与北高纬温度变化和ITCZ(赤道辐合带)位置移动在百年至十年际尺度上存在紧密的联系。  相似文献   

ADULT DRAGONFLY COMMUNITIES IN TROPICAL RIVERS OF THE NORTHERN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA： SPECIES COMPOSITION, BIOTOPE AND HOST PLANT PREFERRENCES     

Wahizatul Afzan A　Che Salmah M R 《湿地科学》2005,3(3):167-175

1INTRODUCTION Manyfactorshavebeenlinkedwithobserved patternsofodonatediversity.Eachhabitatisdifferent andpresentsitsownopportunitiesforexploitationby welladaptedspecies(Krebs,1989).Theyaresensi tiveresponderstonewlycreatedphysicalandtogether withphysiogra…  相似文献   

陕西泾阳南塬滑坡干湿黄土快速大剪切力学特性     

洪勇  车效文  郑孝玉  刘鹏  周蓉 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2017,47(4)

借助于先进的多功能大型高速高压环剪试验机,针对陕西泾阳南塬滑坡中的饱和黄土、干燥黄土在快速大剪切位移条件下的力学响应特性进行了环剪试验研究。研究结果表明:1)在相同试验条件下,与干燥状态黄土相比,泾阳南塬黄土在饱和条件下抗剪强度指标降低。2)在连续快速剪切条件下,泾阳南塬滑坡饱和与干燥黄土均表现出应变软化特征,饱和黄土比干燥黄土的软化特征更加显著。3)在相同法向应力条件下,剪切速率对饱和和干燥黄土峰值强度均有显著影响,但两种状态下土体峰值强度随剪切速率变化特征不同。饱和黄土峰值强度随剪切速率的增大而增大,而干燥黄土峰值强度随剪切速率的增大而减小。4)在不同含水状态下,泾阳南塬滑坡黄土剪切力学特性变化规律具有不同的产生机理。其中,干燥黄土抗剪强度在连续剪切过程中主要受黏土颗粒间摩擦(阻)力、颗粒运移与定向排列以及剪切面形态的控制。与干燥黄土相比,饱和黄土峰值抗剪强度变化主要受土黏聚力的控制并受水的影响;土体内水的作用能够加剧其应变软化程度并可形成光滑平整的剪切面形态,进而对其峰后剪切应力变化产生影响。  相似文献   

我国地震地下流体观测台网调整与优化方案探讨          下载免费PDF全文

车用太  鱼金子 《地震学报》2015,37(2):357-367

本文首先简要介绍了我国地震地下流体观测台网的现状,然后针对其存在的主要问题提出了调整与优化的建议: ① 调整布局,重点加强我国中西部地区(105°E以西)的监测; ② 扩大规模,观测井(泉)数要达到1000个左右; ③ 全面提高观测井质量,淘汰不符合规范要求的观测井(泉),改造不完全符合规范要求的观测井,新建一批完全符合规范的观测井; ④ 优化观测项目的组合,大力发展观测井(泉)水流量观测,强化以H₂、 He、 CO₂等为主测项的断层带土壤气观测,建立断层带土壤气观测网; ⑤ 优化现有的观测模式,开展平面上的台阵式观测与垂向的多层次立体化观测; ⑥ 完善与提升现有数字化观测技术水平.   相似文献   

地壳流体对地震活动的影响与控制作用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

车用太  鱼金子 《国际地震动态》2014,(8):1-9

地壳中普遍存在着流体,不仅在地壳动力过程中发挥重要作用,而且也极有可能在地震孕育与发生过程中起着不为人知的重要作用。这样的认识,越来越得到地质学家与地球物理学者们的认可。本文概括介绍了地壳流体对地震活动的空间分布、震源深度与强震活动周期的影响与控制作用,并提出了地壳硬夹层孕震与流体促震的假设。最后还介绍了通过流体控制地震活动并实现减轻地震灾害的思想。  相似文献   

地震地下流体观测现状   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

冯恩国  王华  车用太  刘成龙  王伟  陈其锋  连凯旋  刘保华  李月强 《地震地磁观测与研究》2012,33(5):202-207

系统介绍我国地震地下流体井（泉）的分布现状、观测井含水层特征及自流热水井的观测现状,并介绍观测项目及主要观测仪器等。上述调查与分析结果,可为我国地震地下流体台网的进一步调整与优化,及今后地震地下流体学科的发展提供科学依据。  相似文献   

Interdecadal variations of surface winds over China marginal seas     

孙澈  闫晓梅  马晓 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2012,30(6):908-921

Long term variability in the surface winds over the marginal seas of China is examined with a dominant-mode singular value decomposition method. Both interannual and interdecadal patterns are found to be seasonally and spatially dependent, with reanalyses and satellite remote sensing data yielding highly consistent results. The study reveals that summer monsoon winds over the East China Sea experienced an interdecadal weakening in the late 1960s and began a persistent recovery in 2005. The study also shows gradual weakening of the winter monsoon in the southern South China Sea by more than 2m/s since the 1960s, with corroboration from coastal climate stations in Borneo. This phenomenon has not been reported in previous monsoon studies.  相似文献