Non-stationary Markov chains for modelling daily sunshine at São Paulo, Brazil     

C. A. Sansigolo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1997,56(3-4):225-230

Summary Non-stationary, four-state Markov chains were used to model the sunshine daily ratios at São Paulo, Brazil. Fourier series were used to account for the periodic seasonal variations in the transition probabilities. All the regressions and tests, based on Generalized Linear Models, were made through the software GLIM. Significant seasonal variations were detected in the conditional probabilities, especially for the extreme categories of overcast and clear days. The fitted model provided a concise summary of the daily data, useful for short-range (1 day) sunshine predictions and simulations.With 6 Figures  相似文献   

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy     

A. Douaik  M. van Meirvenne  T. Tóth  M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.  相似文献   

Réponse aux commentaires d'Azambre et al. et de Rapaille et al.: [C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 197]     

Christian Desreumaux  Bernard Clément  Richard Fabre  Bruno Martins-Campina 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2004,336(2):173-174

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Detection and 2d modelling of cavities using pole–dipole array     

Fernando A. Monteiro Santos  António R. Andrade Afonso 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(1):108-116

The resistivity method is often used in cave prospecting. In this paper the pole–dipole array ability to detect cavities at different depths and with different water contents is investigated. The research was performed using analogical and numerical modelling. According to the results, empty caves at a depth less than four times its diameter can be easily detected. The ability of the pole–dipole array to detect water-filled caves reaches a minimum at filling percentages of 30–50%. Overburden effects research shows that low resistivity overburden reduces the resolution capability of the array. This study shows that equivalent results can be obtained by modelling the empty caves as infinite resistivity bodies or, alternatively, as very high resistivity ones. The analysis of field data acquired in the Maciço Calcário Estremenho (Portugal) shows the practical importance of the pole–dipole array in cavities prospecting.  相似文献   

Long-term deforestation in NW Spain: linking the Holocene fire history to vegetation change and human activities     

Joeri Kaal  Yolanda Carrión Marco  Eleni Asouti  Maria Martín Seijo  Antonio Martínez Cortizas  Manuela Costa Casáis  Felipe Criado Boado 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(1-2):161-175

The Holocene fire regime is thought to have had a key role in deforestation and shrubland expansion in Galicia (NW Spain) but the contribution of past societies to vegetation burning remains poorly understood. This may be, in part, due to the fact that detailed fire records from areas in close proximity to archaeological sites are scarce. To fill this gap, we performed charcoal analysis in five colluvial soils from an archaeological area (Campo Lameiro) and compared the results to earlier studies from this area and palaeo-ecological literature from NW Spain. This analysis allowed for the reconstruction of the vegetation and fire dynamics in the area during the last ca 11 000 yrs. In the Early Holocene, Fabaceae and Betula sp. were dominant in the charcoal record. Quercus sp. started to replace these species around 10 000 cal BP, forming a deciduous forest that prevailed during the Holocene Thermal Maximum until ～5500 cal BP. Following that, several cycles of potentially fire-induced forest regression with subsequent incomplete recovery eventually led to the formation of an open landscape dominated by shrubs (Erica sp. and Fabaceae). Major episodes of forest regression were (1) ～5500–5000 cal BP, which marks the mid-Holocene cooling after the Holocene Thermal Maximum, but also the period during which agropastoral activities in NW Spain became widespread, and (2) ～2000–1500 cal BP, which corresponds roughly to the end of the Roman Warm Period and the transition from the Roman to the Germanic period. The low degree of chronological precision, which is inherent in fire history reconstructions from colluvial soils, made it impossible to distinguish climatic from human-induced fires. Nonetheless, the abundance of synanthropic pollen indicators (e.g. Plantago lanceolata and Urtica dioica) since at least ～6000 cal BP strongly suggests that humans used fire to generate and maintain pasture.  相似文献   

The multi-component Hekla Ö Tephra,Iceland: a complex widespread mid-Holocene tephra layer     

Daníel Freyr Jónsson  Esther Ruth Gudmundsdóttir  Gudrún Larsen  Bergrún Arna Óladóttir  Egill Erlendsson  Sigrún Dögg Eddudóttir  Olgeir Sigmarsson 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(3):410-421

Large Plinian eruptions from Hekla volcano, Iceland, produce compositionally zoned tephra used as key markers in tephrochronology. However, spatial variations in chemical composition of a tephra layer may complicate its identification. An example is the 5950–6180 cal a bp Hekla Ö tephra layer, which shows compositional spread from rhyolite, dacite and andesite to basalt. In soil sections north of Hekla, the SiO₂ content of the tephra glass reaches 76 wt% in the lowest unit of the Hekla Ö deposit and decreases to 62–63 wt% in the uppermost unit. Intermingled within the whole deposit are basalt tephra grains having 46–47 wt% SiO₂. The composition of the basalt glass includes primitive basalt and a more evolved basalt (MgO >6 and <6 wt%, respectively). Together with literature data, the Hekla Ö tephra and the so-called T-Tephra/Hekla-T are most likely from contemporaneous eruptions of different vents on the Hekla volcanic system, forming a single important marker tephra (Hekla ÖT) deposited over 80% of Iceland. Identification is complicated by its spatial compositional heterogeneity, such as systematic decrease in SiO₂ content from the east to the west of Hekla volcano. Consequently, an individual tephra layer from a large explosive eruption can have different composition at different locations. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Crustal segments in the North Patagonian Massif,Patagonia: An integrated perspective based on Sm–Nd isotope systematics     

Carmen I. Martínez Dopico  Mónica G. López de Luchi  Augusto E. Rapalini  Ilka C. Kleinhanns 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2011,31(2-3):324-341

New insights on the Paleozoic evolution of the continental crust in the North Patagonian Massif are presented based on the analysis of Sm–Nd systematics. New evidence is presented to constrain tectonic models for the origin of Patagonia and its relations with the South American crustal blocks. Geologic, isotopic and tectonic characterization of the North Patagonian Massif and comparison of the Nd parameters lead us to conclude that: (1) The North Patagonian Massif is a crustal block with bulk crustal average ages between 2.1 and 1.6 Ga T_DM (Nd) and (2) At least three metamorphic episodes could be identified in the Paleozoic rocks of the North Patagonian Massif. In the northeastern corner, Famatinian metamorphism is widely identified. However field and petrographic evidence indicate a Middle to Late Cambrian metamorphism pre-dating the emplacement of the ca. 475 Ma granitoids. In the southwestern area, are apparent 425–420 Ma (?) and 380–360 Ma metamorphic peaks. The latter episode might have resulted from the collision of the Antonia terrane; and (3) Early Paleozoic magmatism in the northeastern area is coeval with the Famatinian arc. Nd isotopic compositions reveal that Ordovician magmatism was associated with attenuated crust. On the southwestern border, the first magmatic recycling record is Devonian. Nd data shows a step by step melting of different levels of the continental crust in the Late Palaeozoic. Between 330 and 295 Ma magmatism was likely the product of a crustal source with an average 1.5 Ga T_DM (Nd). Widespread magmatism represented by the 295–260 Ma granitoids involved a lower crustal mafic source, and continued with massive shallower-acid plutono volcanic complexes which might have recycled an upper crustal segment of the Proterozoic continental basement, resulting in a more felsic crust until the Triassic. (4) Sm–Nd parameters and detrital zircon age patterns of Early Paleozoic (meta)-sedimentary rocks from the North Patagonian Massif and those from the neighboring blocks, suggest crustal continuity between Eastern Sierras Pampeanas, southern Arequipa-Antofalla and the northeastern sector of the North Patagonian Massif by the Early Paleozoic. This evidence suggests that, at least, this corner of the North Patagonian Massif is not allochthonous to Gondwana. A Late Paleozoic frontal collision with the southwestern margin of Gondwana can be reconcilied in a para-autochthonous model including a rifting event from a similar or neighbouring position to its post-collision location. Possible Proterozoic or Early Paleozoic connections of the NPM with the Kalahari craton or the western Antartic blocks should be investigated.  相似文献   

Air–sea CO2 fluxes in the north-eastern shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz (southwest Iberian Peninsula)     

Mariana Ribas-Ribas  Abelardo Gómez-Parra  Jesús M. Forja 《Marine Chemistry》2011,123(1-4):56-66

An intra-annual investigation of the fugacity of CO₂ (fCO₂) has been conducted in surface waters of the north-eastern shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Iberian Peninsula) in four cruises made in 2006 and 2007. Intra-annual variability of fCO₂ was assessed and is discussed in terms of mixing, temperature and biology. In the study area of the shelf, thermodynamic control over fCO₂ predominates from early May to late November, and this is opposite and similar in magnitude to the net biological effect. However, biological control over fCO₂ predominates during winter. The results suggest that surface waters in the coastal area are under-saturated with respect to atmospheric CO₂ during most of the year; therefore they represent a sink for atmospheric CO₂ between November and May (? 1.0 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1), but a weak source in June (1.3 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1). In contrast, the coastal ecosystems studied (the lower estuary of Guadalquivir Estuary and Bay of Cádiz) acted as a weak sink for atmospheric CO₂ during February (? 1.3 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1) and as a source between May and November (2.6 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1). The resulting mean annual CO₂ flux in the north-eastern shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz was ? 0.07 mol m^? 2 year^? 1 (? 0.2 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1), indicating that the area acts as a net sink on an annual basis.  相似文献   

Severe soil erosion during a 3‐day exceptional rainfall event: combining modelling and field data for a fallow cereal field          下载免费PDF全文

Manuel López‐Vicente  Laura Quijano  Leticia Gaspar  Leticia Palazón  Ana Navas 《水文研究》2015,29(10):2358-2372

Exceptional rainfall events cause significant losses of soil, although few studies have addressed the validation of model predictions at field scale during severe erosive episodes. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of the enhanced Soil Erosion and Redistribution Tool (SERT‐2014) model for mapping and quantifying soil erosion during the exceptional rainfall event (~235 mm) that affected the Central Spanish Pyrenees in October 2012. The capacity of the simulation model is evaluated in a fallow cereal field (1.9 ha) at a high spatial scale (1 × 1 m). Validation was performed with field‐quantified rates of soil loss in the rills and ephemeral gullies and also with a detailed map of soil redistribution. The SERT‐2014 model was run for the six rainfall sub‐events that made up the exceptional event, simulating the different hydrological responses of soils with maximum runoff depths ranging between 40 and 1017 mm. Predicted average and maximum soil erosion was 11 and 117 Mg ha^?1 event^?1, respectively. Total soil loss and sediment yield to the La Reina gully amounted to 16.3 and 9.0 Mg event^?1. These rates are in agreement with field estimations of soil loss of 20.0 Mg event^?1. Most soil loss (86%) occurred during the first sub‐event. Although soil accumulation was overestimated in the first sub‐event because of the large amount of detached soil, the enhanced SERT‐2014 model successfully predicted the different spatial patterns and values of soil redistribution for each sub‐event. Further research should focus on stream transport capacity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Challenges of tracking extratropical cyclones in regional climate models     

Hélène Côté  Kevin M. Grise  Seok-Woo Son  Ramón de Elía  Anne Frigon 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(11-12):3101-3109

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