Risk evaluation for natural disasters is an important part of the emergency management, disaster prevention and mitigation. Because of the complexity and uncertainty of practical evaluation problems, the evaluation information available generally needs depiction of interval gray numbers instead of real numbers. This paper presents an evaluation method with three-parameter interval gray numbers which can deal with dynamic multiple indicators in order to evaluate efficiently the ice-jam disaster risk of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River in China. The gray range transformation is introduced into the process of model building to eliminate the incomparability of different dimensions. Moreover, model GM(1,1) is used to simulate and predict the development trend of risk vector. As the results show, while the ice-jam disaster risk of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River reveals certain wave characteristics, the overall trend remains smooth. The risk degree of ice-jam disaster with Bayangol and Toudaoguai is expected to decrease in the years between 2013 and 2015, while that with Sanhu River tends to increase. 相似文献
Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.
Samples of airborne PM2.5 particles in Guangzhou urban area were collected during the autumn of 2006 and the spring of 2007. The morphologies and elemental
compositions of individual particles were determined by Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with Energy Dispersive X-ray
Spectrometer (SEM-EDX). The obtained images were further analyzed for size distribution by an image analysis system. Based
on the morphology, particles in PM2.5 were classified into four groups: soot aggregates, minerals, fly ash and others. The amount of soot aggregates and minerals
were higher than that of fly ashes. The distributions of particles by number and size in two seasons were bimodal with 90%
less than 1.0 μm in diameter. The primary peak from the autumn samples was in the size range of 0.4 ~ 0.5 μm, and 0.3 ~ 0.4 μm
for the spring samples. More soot aggregates (36.1%) and minerals (61.5%) were found than fly ash (2.4%) in autumn, but soot
aggregates (89.9%) was the dominant particle type in spring. The size distribution of particles according to the volume was
generally opposite to that according to the number. Particles less than 1.0 μm were as high as 89.5% in number but contributed
only 18.9% in volume, indicating that fine particles contributed relatively little in volume although existing in large numbers. 相似文献
The hydrogeomorphology of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) has been significantly altered by natural and anthropogenic drivers. In this study, the spatiotemporal changes of the flow regime were examined by analysing the long-term daily, monthly, annual and extreme discharges and water levels from 1980 to 2018, supported by further investigation of the long-term annual sediment load (from the 1960s to 2015), river bathymetric data (in 1998, 2014 and 2017) and daily salinity concentration (from the 1990s to 2015) using various statistical methods and a coupled numerical model. Then, the effects of riverbed incision on the hydrology were investigated. The results show that the dry season discharge (i.e., in March–June) of the Tien River increased by up to 23% from the predam period (1980–1992) to the postdam period (1993–2018) but that the dry season water level at My Thuan decreased by up to −46%. The annual mean and monthly water levels in June at Tan Chau and in January and June–October at My Thuan in the Tien River decreased statistically, even though the respective discharges increased significantly. These decreased water levels instead of the increased discharges were attributed to the accelerated riverbed incision upstream from My Thuan, which increased by more than three times, from a mean rate of −0.16 m/year (−16.7 Mm3/year) in 1998–2014 to −0.5 m/year (−52.5 Mm3/year) in 2014–2017. This accelerated riverbed incision was likely caused by the reduction in the sediment load of the VMD (from 166.7 Mt/year in the predam period to 57.6 Mt/year in the postdam period) and increase in sand mining (from 3.9 Mm3 in 2012 to 13.43 Mm3 in 2018). Collectively, the decreased dry season water level in the Tien River is likely one of the main causes of the enhanced salinity intrusion. 相似文献
