Late Quaternary history of contourite drifts and variations in Labrador Current flow,Flemish Pass,offshore eastern Canada     

Nicole R. Marshall  David J. W. Piper  Francky Saint-Ange  D. Calvin Campbell 《Geo-Marine Letters》2014,34(5):457-470

Contourite drifts of alternating sand and mud, shaped by the Labrador Current, formed during the late Quaternary in Flemish Pass seaward of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, Canada. The drifts preserve a record of Labrador Current flow variations through the last glacial maximum. A high-resolution seismic profile and a transect of four cores were collected across Beothuk drift on the southeast side of Flemish Pass. Downcore and lateral trends in grain size and sedimentation rate provide evidence that, between 16 and 13 ka, sediment was partitioned across Beothuk drift and the adjacent Flemish Pass floor by a strong current flow but, from 29 to 16 ka, sedimentation was more of a blanketing style, represented by draped reflections interpreted as being due to a weaker current. The data poorly resolve the low sedimentation rates since 13 ka, but the modern Labrador Current in Flemish Pass is the strongest it has been in at least the past 29 ka. Pre-29 ka current flow is interpreted based on reflection architecture in seismic profiles. A prominent drift on the southwestern side of Flemish Pass formed above a mid-Miocene erosion surface, but was buried by a mass-transport deposit after the penultimate glacial maximum and after drift deposition switched to eastern Flemish Pass. These findings illustrate the temporal complexity of drift sedimentation and provide the first detailed proxy for Labrador Current flow since the last glacial maximum.  相似文献   

Application of SWACI products as ionospheric correction for single-point positioning: a comparative study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David Minkwitz  Tatjana Gerzen  Volker Wilken  Norbert Jakowski 《Journal of Geodesy》2014,88(5):463-478

In Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) using L-band frequencies, the ionosphere causes signal delays that correspond with link related range errors of up to 100 m. In a first order approximation the range error is proportional to the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere. Whereas this first order range error can be corrected in dual-frequency measurements by a linear combination of carrier phase- or code-ranges of both frequencies, single-frequency users need additional information to mitigate the ionospheric error. This information can be provided by TEC maps deduced from corresponding GNSS measurements or by ionospheric models. In this paper we discuss and compare different ionospheric correction methods for single-frequency users. The focus is on the comparison of the positioning quality using dual-frequency measurements, the Klobuchar model, the NeQuick model, the IGS TEC maps, the Neustrelitz TEC Model (NTCM-GL) and the reconstructed NTCM-GL TEC maps both provided via the ionosphere data service SWACI (http://swaciweb.dlr.de) in near real-time. For that purpose, data from different locations covering several days in 2011 and 2012 are investigated, including periods of quiet and disturbed ionospheric conditions. In applying the NTCM-GL based corrections instead of the Klobuchar model, positioning accuracy improvements up to several meters have been found for the European region in dependence on the ionospheric conditions. Further in mid- and low-latitudes the NTCM-GL model provides results comparable to NeQuick during the considered time periods. Moreover, in regions with a dense GNSS ground station network the reconstructed NTCM-GL TEC maps are partly at the same level as the final IGS TEC maps.  相似文献   

Response of evapotranspiration and water availability to the changing climate in Northern Eurasia     

Yaling Liu  Qianlai Zhuang  Zhihua Pan  Diego Miralles  Nadja Tchebakova  David Kicklighter  Jiquan Chen  Andrey Sirin  Yujie He  Guangsheng Zhou  Jerry Melillo 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):413-427

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climate models examined, the US Southwest including California and the southern Great Plains was consistently found to be the most vulnerable. For most of the US, the largest contributions to changes in vulnerability come from changes in supply. However, for some areas of the West changes in vulnerability are caused mainly by changes in demand. These changes in supply and demand result mainly from changes in evapotranspiration rather than from changes in precipitation. Importantly, changes in vulnerability from projected changes in the standard deviations of precipitation and evapotranspiration are of about the same magnitude or larger than those from changes in the corresponding means over most of the US, except in large areas of the Great Plains, in central California and southern and central Texas.  相似文献   

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates     

Jean Pierre Ometto  Ana Paula Aguiar  Talita Assis  Luciana Soler  Pedro Valle  Graciela Tejada  David M. Lapola  Patrick Meir 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):545-560

As land use change (LUC), including deforestation, is a patchy process, estimating the impact of LUC on carbon emissions requires spatially accurate underlying data on biomass distribution and change. The methods currently adopted to estimate the spatial variation of above- and below-ground biomass in tropical forests, in particular the Brazilian Amazon, are usually based on remote sensing analyses coupled with field datasets, which tend to be relatively scarce and often limited in their spatial distribution. There are notable differences among the resulting biomass maps found in the literature. These differences subsequently result in relatively high uncertainties in the carbon emissions calculated from land use change, and have a larger impact when biomass maps are coded into biomass classes referring to specific ranges of biomass values. In this paper we analyze the differences among recently-published biomass maps of the Amazon region, including the official information used by the Brazilian government for its communication to the United Nation Framework on Climate Change Convention of the United Nations. The estimated average pre-deforestation biomass in the four maps, for the areas of the Amazon region that had been deforested during the 1990–2009 period, varied from 205?±?32 Mg ha^?1 during 1990–1999, to 216?±?31 Mg ha^?1 during 2000–2009. The biomass values of the deforested areas in 2011 were between 7 and 24 % higher than for the average deforested areas during 1990–1999, suggesting that although there was variation in the mean value, deforestation was tending to occur in increasingly carbon-dense areas, with consequences for carbon emissions. To summarize, our key findings were: (i) the current maps of Amazonian biomass show substantial variation in both total biomass and its spatial distribution; (ii) carbon emissions estimates from deforestation are highly dependent on the spatial distribution of biomass as determined by any single biomass map, and on the deforestation process itself; (iii) future deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is likely to affect forests with higher biomass than those deforested in the past, resulting in smaller reductions in carbon dioxide emissions than expected purely from the recent reductions in deforestation rates; and (iv) the current official estimate of carbon emissions from Amazonian deforestation is probably overestimated, because the recent loss of higher-biomass forests has not been taken into account.  相似文献   

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years     

Raphael Neukom  David J. Nash  Georgina H. Endfield  Stefan W. Grab  Craig A. Grove  Clare Kelso  Coleen H. Vogel  Jens Zinke 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2713-2726

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.  相似文献   

Witnessing North Atlantic westerlies variability from ships’ logbooks (1685–2008)     

David Barriopedro  David Gallego  M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro  Ricardo García-Herrera  Dennis Wheeler  Cristina Peña-Ortiz  Susana M. Barbosa 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(3-4):939-955

A monthly index based on the persistence of the westerly winds over the English Chanel is constructed for 1685–2008 using daily data from ships’ logbooks and comprehensive marine meteorological datasets. The so-called Westerly Index (WI) provides the longest instrumental record of atmospheric circulation currently available. Anomalous WI values are associated with spatially coherent climatic signals in temperature and precipitation over large areas of Europe, which are stronger for precipitation than for temperature and in winter and summer than in transitional seasons. Overall, the WI series accord with the known European climatic history, and reveal that the frequency of the westerlies in the eastern Atlantic during the twentieth century and the Late Maunder Minimum was not exceptional in the context of the last three centuries. It is shown that the WI provides additional and complementary information to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. The analysis of WI series during the industrial era indicates an overall good agreement with the winter and high-summer NAO, with the exception of several multidecadal periods of weakened correlation. These decoupled periods between the frequency and the intensity of the zonal flow are interpreted on the basis of several sources of non-stationarity affecting the centres of the variability of the North Atlantic and their teleconnections. Comparisons with NAO reconstructions and long instrumental indices extending back to the seventeenth century suggest that similar situations have occurred in the past, which call for caution when reconstructing the past atmospheric circulation from climatic proxies. The robustness and extension of its climatic signal, the length of the series and its instrumental nature make the WI an excellent benchmark for proxy calibration in Europe and Greenland.  相似文献   

Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Agathe Germe  Matthieu Chevallier  David Salas y Mélia  Emilia Sanchez-Gomez  Christophe Cassou 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2519-2538

The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill.  相似文献   

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations     

James M. Murphy  Ben B. B. Booth  Chris A. Boulton  Robin T. Clark  Glen R. Harris  Jason A. Lowe  David M. H. Sexton 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2855-2885

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.  相似文献   

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?     

Lester Kwiatkowski  Paul R. Halloran  Peter J. Mumby  David B. Stephenson 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(5-6):1483-1496

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.  相似文献   

Geochemical Characteristics,Origin, and Evolution of Ore‐Forming Fluids of the Khut Copper Skarn Deposit,West of Yazd in Central Iran     

Azam Zahedi  Mohammad Boomeri  Kazuo Nakashima  Mohammad Ali Mackizadeh  Masao Ban  David R. Lentz 《Resource Geology》2014,64(3):209-232

The Khut copper skarn deposit is located at about 50 km northwest of Taft City in Yazd province in the middle part of the Urumieh‐Dokhtar magmatic arc. Intrusion of granitoid of Oligocene–Miocene age into carbonate rocks of the Triassic Nayband Formation led to the formation of marble and a calcic skarn. The marble contains high grade Cu mineralization that occurs mainly as open space filling and replacement. Cu‐rich sulfide samples from the mineralized marble are also anomalous in Au, Zn, and Pb. In contrast, the calcic skarn is only weakly anomalous in Cu and W. The calcic skarn is divided into garnet skarn and garnet–pyroxene skarn zones. Paragenetic relationships and microthermometric data from fluid inclusions in garnet and calcite indicate that the compositional evolution of skarn minerals occurred in three main stages as follows. (i) The early prograde stage, which is characterized by Mg‐rich hedenbergite (Hd_53.7Di_42.3–Hd_86.1Di_9.5) with Al‐bearing andradite (69.8–99.5 mol% andradite). The temperature in the early prograde skarn varies from 400 to 500°C at 500 bar. (ii) The late prograde stage is manifested by almost pure andradite (96.2–98.4 mol% andradite). Based on the fluid inclusion data from garnet, fluid temperature and salinity in this stage is estimated to vary from 267 to 361°C and from 10.1 to 21.1 wt% NaCl equivalent, respectively. Pyrrhotite precipitation started during this stage. (iii) The retrograde stage occurs in an exoskarn, which consists of an assemblage of ferro‐actinolite, quartz, calcite, epidote, chlorite, sphalerite, pyrite, and chalcopyrite that partially replaces earlier mineral assemblages under hydrostatic conditions during fracturing of the early skarn. Fluids in calcite yielded lower temperatures (T < 260°C) and fluid salinity declined to ～8 wt% NaCl equivalent. The last stage mineralization in the deposit is supergene weathering/alteration represented by the formation of iron hydroxide, Cu‐carbonate, clay minerals, and calcite. Sulfur isotope data of chalcopyrite (δ³⁴S of +1.4 to +5.2‰) show an igneous sulfur source. Mineralogy and mineral compositions of the prograde assemblage of the Khut skarn are consistent with deposition under intermediately oxidized and slightly lower fS₂ conditions at shallow crustal levels compared with those of other typical Fe‐bearing Cu–Au skarn systems.  相似文献