降尺度方法在中国不同区域夏季降水预测中的应用   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

顾伟宗  陈丽娟  李维京  陈德亮 《气象学报》2012,70(2):202-212

在中国降水气候分区的基础上,利用降尺度方法进行区域夏季降水预测(RSPP),预测模型建立的基础是寻找影响区域气候的关键因子。降尺度预测模型中使用的资料有国家气候中心海-气耦合模式(CGCM/NCC)回报资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和台站观测资料。为了避免年代际变化特征对季节尺度降水预测的影响,首先对CGCM/NCC模式输出资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、区域平均降水资料去除年代际线性变化趋势,即去除所有预报因子场和预报对象场的长期变化趋势。然后分别计算预报对象和模式资料的预报因子场以及再分析资料的预报因子场的相关系数,把相关系数值同时达到0.05显著性检验水平的区域平均环流特征作为预测因子,保证挑选出的预测因子既能反映实际大气中预测因子与预报对象的关系,同时又是海-气耦合模式预测的高技巧信息。利用最优子集回归作为转换函数的降尺度方法建立区域夏季降水预测模型。交叉检验和独立样本检验结果表明,文中设计的区域夏季降水预测模型对中国大部分地区的夏季降水趋势预测的准确率较高且比较稳定,其预测效果远高于CGCM/NCC直接输出降水结果。进一步对具有较高预测技巧的代表性区域的可预报性来源分析发现,物理意义明确且独立性强的预测因子有助于提高预测准确率。  相似文献   

以树轮宽度重建公元1558年以来华山5～6月平均温度及20世纪中后期升温   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

刘禹  田沁花  宋慧明  孙军艳  Deliang Chen  蔡秋芳  他维媛  雷莺 《第四纪研究》2009,29(5):888-895

通过对秦岭东端华山地区油松树木年轮宽度序列的分析研究,探讨了华山地区油松对气候环境响应的敏感性,结果表明在华山地区油松对气温和降水的响应均高于华山松,与 5～6月平均温度相关较高,且通过了0.01显著性信度检验。在此基础上,我们重建了华山地区 1558～2006年间 5～6月的平均温度,重建序列的方差解释量达到41%。结果显示： 华山过去449年中,大部分年份 5～6月平均温度在平均值附近波动,变幅不大; 重建序列可与秦岭南五台 5～7月温度序列进行良好对比,其年际间相关系数达到了0.49(N＝246, p<0.0001)。华山地区20世纪 20～30年代初的暖期略偏低; 20世纪30年代中期至50年代是整个重建时段中低温持续时间较长的时段; 20世纪60年代之后,气温波动平缓; 从20世纪70年代开始快速升温,对全球变暖有较强响应。  相似文献   

日以下尺度降雨随机模拟研究进展     

殷水清  谢云  陈德亮  林小鹃  李维京 《地球科学进展》2009,24(9):981-989

目前我国作物生长、土壤侵蚀等应用模式发展很快,利用这些模式进行气候变化影响评价的研究逐渐成为热点,但日以下尺度降雨观测资料却严重不足,迫切需要针对我国复杂的气候条件建立日以下尺度降雨模拟模型,为应用模式提供更为精细的降雨资料输入。重点从次降雨事件的划分方法、次降雨事件模型的模拟过程、Bartlett-Lewis和Neyman-Scott点过程模型的模拟过程、参数估计、参数敏感性分析以及模型改进等方面综合概述了日以下尺度降雨随机模拟的进展,同时给出这几种模型的对比研究结果,从而为人们根据不同目的和条件选择不同模型提供借鉴。最后指出,结合点过程和次降雨事件等方法优点的混合模型——基于天气分型的随机模拟模型以及将统计与动力方法相结合的模拟模型,可能是未来降雨模拟的重要发展方向。  相似文献   

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?     

Fei LIU  Chen XING  Jinbao LI  Bin WANG  Jing CHAI  Chaochao GAO  Gang HUANG  Jian LIU  Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2020,37(7):663-670

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.  相似文献   

Climate Variability and Land-use Change in Danangou Watershed, China—Examples of Small-Scale Farmers' Adaptation   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Johanna Hageback  Jenny Sundberg  Madelene Ostwald  Deliang Chen  Xie Yun  Per Knutsson 《Climatic change》2005,72(1-2):189-212

With global concern on climate change impacts, developing countries are given special attention due their susceptibility. In this paper, change and variability in climate, land use and farmers' perception, adaptation and response to change are examined in Danangou watershed in the Chinese Loess Plateau. The first focus is to look at how climate data recorded at meteorological stations recently have evolved, and how farmers perceived these changes. Further, we want to see how the farmers respond and adapt to climate variability and what the resulting impact on land use is. Finally, other factors causing change in land use are considered. Local precipitation and temperature instrumental data and interview data from farmers were used. The instrumental data shows that the climate is getting warmer and drier, the latter despite large interannual variability. The trend is seen on the local and regional level. Farmers' perception of climatic variability corresponds well with the data record. During the last 20 years, the farmers have become less dependent on agriculture by adopting a more diversified livelihood. This adaptation makes them less vulnerable to climate variability. It was found that government policies and reforms had a stronger influence on land use than climate variability. Small-scale farmers should therefore be considered as adaptive to changing situations, planned and non-consciously planned.  相似文献   

火山岩吸附CO₂气的成藏潜力及实例分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

刘德良  李振生刘波谈迎  杨强杨晓勇  王佰长郑德山 《地质通报》2005,24(10):962-967

火山岩的脱气实验和对昌德东CO2气藏气源的分析结果表明：加热火山岩到250℃时，脱出挥发分总量为0．0299～0．0790mL／g，其中CO2脱出量为0．0218～0．0706mL／g（0．429～1．387wt％）；挥发组分以CO2为主，还含有H2、CO、CH4等还原性气体，以及少量低碳烷烃，CO2含量和总烃呈现反比关系；基性岩的CO2脱出量、脱出率高于中、酸性岩；CO2脱出量与岩石碱质含量正相关。松辽盆地北部昌德东CO2气藏成藏模式为“自生自储”，成藏CO2气主要来自深部被火山岩吸附的气。随岩浆上升，在岩浆冷凝成火山岩的过程中被吸附于火山岩的节理、劈理和晶体位错之中的CO2气，连同火山岩包体中的残留气，成为高纯Co2气藏的主要补给源，并非地幔气体沿大断裂上来直接充注成藏。  相似文献   

Stochastic modeling of daily precipitation in China     

LIAO Yaoming  ZHANG Qiang  CHEN Deliang 《地理学报》2004,14(4):417-426

A stochastic model for daily precipitation simulation in China was developed based on the framework of a 'Richardson-type' weather generator that is an important tool in studying impacts of weather/climate on a variety of systems including ecosystem and risk assessment. The purpose of this work is to develop a weather generator for applications in China. The focus is on precipitation simulation since determination of other weather variables such as temperature is dependent on precipitation simulation. A framework of first order Markov Chain with Gamma Distribution for daily precipitation is adopted in this work. Based on this framework, four parameters of precipitation simulation for each month at 672 stations all over China were determined using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2000. Compared with previous works, our estimation for the parameters was made for more stations and longer observations, which makes the weather generator more applicable and reliable. Spatial distributions of the four parameters are analyzed in a regional climate context. The seasonal variations of these parameters at five stations representing regional differences are discussed. Based on the estimated monthly parameters at 672 stations, daily precipitations for any period can be simulated. A 30-year simulation was made and compared with observations during 1971-2000 in terms of annual and monthly statistics. The results are satisfactory, which demonstrates the usefulness of the weather generator.  相似文献   

郯庐断裂带南段中深层次剪切带糜棱岩化过程中组分变化规律研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

杨晓勇  刘德良 《高校地质学报》1997,3(3):263-271

对郯庐断裂带南段两条典型的中深层次的声望生剪切带中的糜棱岩的系统研究，揭示了韧性剪切变莆作用对岩石化学级份迁移活化的制约和影响，在对活动组分迁移得失的模拟计算的基础，建立岩石组分迁移变化的变质反应化学方程式，综合讨论了流体在糜凌岩化过程中所起的重要作用。  相似文献   

Mineral Composition and Metamorphic P-T Conditions of the Eclogitic Rocks in the Eastern Dabie Mountains and Their Genetic Implication     

Ge Ningjie  Li Shuguang  Peng Zhonghua  Liu Deliang 《《地质学报》英文版》1993,67(4)

There are obvious differences in the mineral assemblage and metamorphic P-T conditions between the eclogites from the northern and southern parts of the eastern Dabie Mountains. Those from the northern part of the mountains are developed in Alpine peridotite and gneiss. They have a mineral assemblage of garnet+diopside with no quartz, and were formed at temperatures of 600℃-740℃. Those from the southern part are developed in gneiss and marble. They consist of garnet+omphacite+less quartz and were metamorphosed at temperatures in the range of 650°-800℃. These differences suggest that the former may be formed during the metamorphism of the deep subducted oceanic crust, whereas the latter may be genetically related to the subduction of the continental crust in this area.  相似文献   

皖中地区深层构造分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

刘德良  李秀新 《地质科学》1984,(1):42-50

通过对地球物理场特征与不同层次地质体之间对应关系的分析,可以探讨深层构造的演化。本文根据对重力和磁力场数据处理的结果,研究皖中地区地壳上部的层块结构和滑脱构造。  相似文献