Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands     

Saskia Van Vuren  Huib J. De. Vriend  Sonja Ouwerkerk  Matthijs Kok 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):81-102

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献   

Polymorphic phase transition in Superhydrous Phase B     

M. Koch-Müller  P. Dera  Y. Fei  H. Hellwig  Z. Liu  J. Van Orman  R. Wirth 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2005,32(5-6):349-361

We synthesized superhydrous phase B (shy-B) at 22 GPa and two different temperatures: 1200°C (LT) and 1400°C (HT) using a multi-anvil apparatus. The samples were investigated by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), single crystal X-ray diffraction, Raman and IR spectroscopy. The IR spectra were collected on polycrystalline thin-films and single crystals using synchrotron radiation, as well as a conventional IR source at ambient conditions and in situ at various pressures (up to 15 GPa) and temperatures (down to −180°C). Our studies show that shy-B exists in two polymorphic forms. As expected from crystal chemistry, the LT polymorph crystallizes in a lower symmetry space group (Pnn2), whereas the HT polymorph assumes a higher symmetry space group (Pnnm). TEM shows that both modifications consist of nearly perfect crystals with almost no lattice defects or inclusions of additional phases. IR spectra taken on polycrystalline thin films exhibit just one symmetric OH band and 29 lattice modes for the HT polymorph in contrast to two intense but asymmetric OH stretching bands and at least 48 lattice modes for the LT sample. The IR spectra differ not only in the number of bands, but also in the response of the bands to changes in pressure. The pressure derivatives for the IR bands are higher for the HT polymorph indicating that the high symmetry form is more compressible than the low symmetry form. Polarized, low-temperature single-crystal IR spectra indicate that in the LT-polymorph extensive ordering occurs not only at the Mg sites but also at the hydrogen sites.  相似文献   

GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in northern Ardenne–Eifel: five campaigns (1999–2003) of the HARD project     

A. Demoulin  J. Campbell  A. De. Wulf  A. Muls  R. Arnould  B. Görres  D. Fischer  T. Kötter  M. Brondeel  D. Van. Damme  J. M. Jacqmotte 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2005,94(4):515-524

We present the HARD project of GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in NE Ardenne and Eifel (western Europe). Its main purposes are to get a better insight into the present-day rates of vertical ground motion in intraplate settings and to identify the various causes of these motions. Since 1999, we have carried out yearly campaigns of simultaneous GPS measurements at 12 sites situated so as to sample the different tectonic subunits of the study area and especially to record potential displacements across the seismogenic Hockai fault zone. Five campaigns (1999–2003) have been processed currently. Key issues of the data processing with the Gamit software are discussed and first results are presented. Though temporally consistent in many cases, the obtained vertical motion rates are spatially highly variable. They are also much too high (several mm/year) to support a tectonic interpretation, and a long-term influence of groundwater level variations is proposed to account for the observed motions. This influence should be distinguished from seasonal variations and from inter-survey variations linked to the varying degree of soil and subsoil drying off during the successive spring surveys.  相似文献   

Partitioning of trace elements between rutile and silicate melts: Implications for subduction zones   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Stephan Klemme  Stefan Prowatke  Detlef Günther 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(9):2361-2371

Mineral/melt trace element partition coefficients were determined for rutile (TiO₂) for a large number of trace elements (Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta, V, Co, Cu, Zn, Sr, REE, Cr, Sb, W, U, Th). Whilst the high field strength elements (Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta) are compatible in rutile, other studied trace elements are incompatible (Sr, Th, REE). In all experiments we found D_Ta > D_Nb, D_Hf > D_Zr and D_U > D_Th. Partition coefficients for some polyvalent elements (Sb, W, and Co) were sensitive to oxygen fugacity. Melt composition exerts a strong influence on HFSE partition coefficients. With increasing polymerization of the melt, rutile/melt partition coefficients for the high field strength elements Zr, Hf, Nb and Ta increase about an order of magnitude. However, D_Nb/D_Ta and D_Hf/D_Zr are not significantly affected by melt composition. Because D_U ? D_Th, partial melting of rutile-bearing eclogite in subducted lithosphere may cause excesses of ²³⁰Th over ²³⁸U in some island arc lavas, whereas dehydration of subducted lithosphere may cause excesses of ²³⁸U over ²³⁰Th. From our partitioning results we infer partition coefficients for protactinium (Pa) which we predict to be much lower than previously anticipated. Contrary to previous studies, our data imply that rutile should not significantly influence observed ²³¹Pa-²³⁵U disequilibria in certain volcanic rocks.  相似文献   

Modeling the impact of microbial activity on redox dynamics in porous media     

Martin Thullner  Philippe Van Cappellen  Pierre Regnier 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(21):5005-5019

The present study investigates the interaction between microbial growth and activity and the redox dynamics in natural porous media. The impact the transport regime has on this interaction is also addressed. Expressions for microbial growth are incorporated into a geochemical reaction network linking redox reaction rates to the activity of the microorganisms. A flexible simulation environment, the Biogeochemical Reaction Network Simulator (BRNS) is used for this purpose. Two reactive transport applications relevant to fields of contaminant hydrology and early diagenesis are simulated with the BRNS. Model results are evaluated based on a comparison with comprehensive datasets on the biodegradation of lactate in a sand column experiment and on the distribution of redox-sensitive chemical species in marine sediments of the Skagerrak, Denmark. It is shown that, despite quite different transport regimes, the geomicrobiological model performs equally well in the reproduction of measured chemical species distribution for both applications. This result emphasizes the broad applicability of the proposed approach. Our simulations support that the competitive behavior between various microbial groups is a process controlling the development of redox stratified environments. Furthermore, it is also shown that the transport regime is a key controlling factor for the degree of spatial correlation between microbial biomass distributions and redox reaction rates. Although all our simulations yield a pronounced stratification of the redox processes in the system, the biomass distribution is related to the associated reaction rates only in case of the advection controlled column experiment. In the early diagenetic application, mixing due to bioturbation is the dominant transport process for particulate matter, hence leading to fairly homogeneous distribution of bacterial biomasses which are unrelated to the spatial distribution of redox reaction rates. This homogeneous biomass distribution combined with the 1G carbon degradation model approach might explain why the steady state concentration profiles in such systems can be reproduced by diagenetic models without explicit representation of microbial growth.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Polymorphic phase transition in Superhydrous Phase B     

M. Koch-Müller  P. Dera  Y. Fei  H. Hellwig  Z. Liu  J. Van Orman  R. Wirth 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(9):725-725

  相似文献   

A 2000‐year lipid biomarker record preserved in a stalagmite from north‐west Scotland     

Alison J. Blyth  Andy Baker  Louise E. Thomas  Peter Van Calsteren 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(3):326-334

Previous studies on lipid biomarkers preserved in Chinese stalagmites have indicated that ratios of low‐molecular‐weight (LMW) to high‐molecular‐weight (HMW) n‐alkanes, n‐alkan‐2‐ones, n‐alkanols and n‐alkanoic acids can be used as an index of vegetation versus microbial organic matter input to the system and, by extension, a marker of climatic changes, with increases in the proportion of LMW compounds coinciding with colder periods. Here we test whether this hypothesis is equally applicable to a different geographical region (north‐west Scotland), by examining a stalagmite record of the past 200 years, and a wider range of lipid markers. We also test the applicability of other lipid proxies in this context, including the use of n‐alkane ratios, to interpret vegetation changes, and unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios as climatic indicators. The results show that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites, and especially those related to vegetation, are potentially extremely useful in palaeoenvironmental research. Of particular value is the use of C₂₇/C₃₁ n‐alkane ratios as a proxy for vegetation change, clearly indicating variations between herbaceous and arboreal cover. This proxy has now been successfully applied to samples from diverse environments, and can be considered sufficiently robust to be of use in analysing future stalagmite records. It will be of particular value in areas where reliable pollen records are not available, as is often the case with deeper cave deposits. However, the division between LMW and HMW aliphatic compounds is not a clear‐cut case of microbial versus plant activity, with the changes in LMW compounds relating more closely to those in their HMW analogues than in specific bacterial biomarkers. The use of unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios here gives conflicting results, with the observed variation through time depending on the isomer measured. The discrepancies between the findings of this study and previous work are likely to be due to the varying controls on the lipids (original organic matter input, and compound degradation), which in turn will be affected by whether the main climatic limiting factor on the soil is temperature or precipitation. This suggests that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites must be interpreted with care, particularly in the case of bacterial compounds which may be derived from within the cave or from the soil. However, many of these issues can be resolved by the use of multi‐proxy studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geological and geophysical studies of the Agoudal impact structure (Central High Atlas,Morocco): New evidence for crater size and age     

Houda El Kerni  Hasnaa Chennaoui Aoudjehane  David Baratoux  Mohammed Aoudjehane  Andr Charrire  Hassan Ibouh  Pierre Rochette  Yoann Quesnel  Minoru Uehara  Thomas Kenkmann  Gerwin Wulf  Michael Poelchau  Van Binh Nguyen  Maria Aboulahris  Samira Makhoukhi  Georges Aumaître  Didier Bourls  Karim Keddadouche 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(10):2483-2509

Since the discovery of shatter cones (SCs) near the village of Agoudal (Morocco, Central High Atlas Mountains) in 2013, the absence of one or several associated circular structures led to speculation about the age of the impact event, the number, and the size of the impact crater or craters. Additional constraints on the crater size, age, and erosion rates are obtained here from geological, structural, and geophysical mapping and from cosmogenic nuclide data. Our geological maps of the Agoudal impact site at the scales of 1:30,000 (6 km²) and 1:15,000 (2.25 km²) include all known occurrences of SCs in target rocks, breccias, and vertical to overturned strata. Considering that strata surrounding the impact site are subhorizontal, we argue that disturbed strata are related to the impact event. Three types of breccias have been observed. Two of them (br1‐2 and br2) could be produced by erosion–sedimentation–consolidation processes, with no evidence for impact breccias, while breccia (br1) might be impact related. The most probable center of the structure is estimated at 31°59′13.73?N, 5°30′55.14?W using the concentric deviation method applied to the orientation of strata over the disturbed area. Despite the absence of a morphological expression, the ground magnetic and electromagnetic surveys reveal anomalies spatially associated with disturbed strata and SC occurrences. The geophysical data, the structural observations, and the area of occurrence of SCs in target rocks are all consistent with an original size of 1.4–4.2 km in diameter. Cosmogenic nuclide data (³⁶Cl) constrain the local erosion rates between 220 ± 22 m Ma^?1 and 430 ± 43 m Ma^?1. These erosion rates may remove the topographic expression of such a crater and its ejecta in a time period of about 0.3–1.9 Ma. This age is older than the Agoudal iron meteorite age (105 ± 40 kyr). This new age constraint excludes the possibility of a genetic relationship between the Agoudal iron meteorite fall and the formation of the Agoudal impact site. A chronolgy chart including the Atlas orogeny, the alternation of sedimentation and erosion periods, and the meteoritic impacts is presented based on all obtained and combined data.  相似文献   

A laboratory study of the turbulent ekman layer     

D. R. Caldwell  C. W. Van Atta  K. N. Helland 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1):125-160

Abstract

Comparing characteristics of a turbulent Ekman boundary layer in a rotating apparatus with atmospheric observations and theories, we find that the similarity relations derived by Kazanski and Monin, and others, scale both laboratory and field data quite well, especially considering that the Coriolis parameter is larger by a factor of 10⁵ in the experiment than it is in the atmosphere. Eddy viscosity models and Deardorff's numerical model predict the properties of both with varying degrees of success. High frequency spectra of velocity fluctuations scale with the Kolmogoroff length and time scales. Both magnitude and direction of the surface shear stress were measured directly, with a heated film stress gauge.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Linking the thermal evolution and emplacement history of an upper-crustal pluton to its lower-crustal roots using zircon geochronology and geochemistry (Southern Adamello Batholith,N. Italy)     

Cindy Broderick  Jörn F. Wotzlaw  Daniel A. Frick  Axel Gerdes  Alex Ulianov  Detlef Günther  Urs Schaltegger 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,171(3):27

  相似文献