Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Chen  François P. Brissette  Pan Liu  Jun Xia 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4398-4413

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.  相似文献   

Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Chen  François P. Brissette  Robert Leconte 《水文研究》2014,28(9):3482-3504

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impacts of variations in the strength and structure of El Niño events on Pacific rainfall in CMIP5 models     

Bradley F. Murphy  Hua Ye  François Delage 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(11-12):3171-3186

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Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities          下载免费PDF全文

Herbert Ssegane  Devendra M. Amatya  Augustine Muwamba  George M. Chescheir  Tim Appelboom  E.W. Tollner  Jami E. Nettles  Mohamed A. Youssef  François Birgand  R.W. Skaggs 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3458-3471

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.  相似文献   

Spatially controlled Fe and Si isotope variations: an alternative view on the formation of the Torres del Paine pluton     

Norbert?A.?GajosEmail author  Craig?C.?Lundstrom  Alexander?H.?Taylor 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,171(11):93

We present new Fe and Si isotope ratio data for the Torres del Paine igneous complex in southern Chile. The multi-composition pluton consists of an approximately 1 km vertical exposure of homogenous granite overlying a contemporaneous 250-m-thick mafic gabbro suite. This first-of-its-kind spatially dependent Fe and Si isotope investigation of a convergent margin-related pluton aims to understand the nature of granite and silicic igneous rock formation. Results collected by MC-ICP-MS show a trend of increasing δ⁵⁶Fe and δ³⁰Si with increasing silica content as well as a systematic increase in δ⁵⁶Fe away from the mafic base of the pluton. The marginal Torres del Paine granites have heavier Fe isotope signatures (δ⁵⁶Fe = +0.25 ± 0.02 2se) compared to granites found in the interior pluton (δ⁵⁶Fe = +0.17 ± 0.02 2se). Cerro Toro country rock values are isotopically light in both Fe and Si isotopic systems (δ⁵⁶Fe = +0.05 ± 0.02 ‰; δ³⁰Si = ?0.38 ± 0.07 ‰). The variations in the Fe and Si isotopic data cannot be accounted for by local assimilation of the wall rocks, in situ fractional crystallization, late-stage fluid exsolution or some combination of these processes. Instead, we conclude that thermal diffusion or source magma variation is the most likely process producing Fe isotope ratio variations in the Torres del Paine pluton.  相似文献   

封面及目录     

本刊编辑部 《岩矿测试》2016,35(4):I-IV

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Biogenic volatile compound emissions from a temperate forest,China: model simulation     

Jianhui?BaiEmail author  Tiffany?Duhl  Nan?Hao 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2016,73(1):29-59

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) were measured using a relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) technique on an above-canopy tower in a temperate forest (Changbai Mountain, Jilin province, China) during the 2010 and 2011 summer seasons. Solar global radiation and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were also measured. Based on PAR energy dynamic balance, an empirical BVOC emission and PAR transfer model was developed that includes the processes of BVOC emissions and PAR transfer above the canopy level, including PAR absorption and consumption, and scattering by gases, liquids, and particles (GLPs). Simulated emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes were in agreement with observations. The averages of the relative estimator biases for the flux were 39.3 % for isoprene, and 27.1 % for monoterpenes in the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons, with NMSE (normalized mean square error) values of 0.133 and 0.101, respectively. The observed and simulated mean diurnal variations of isoprene and monoterpenes in the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons were evaluated for the validation of the empirical model. Under observed atmospheric conditions, the sensitivity analysis showed that emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes were more sensitive to changes in PAR than to water vapor content or to the magnitude of the scattering factor. The emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes in the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons (from June to September) were estimated using this empirical model along with hourly observational data, with mean hourly emissions of 1.71 and 1.55 mg m^?2 h^?1 for isoprene, and 0.48 and 0.47 mg m^?2 h^?1 for monoterpenes in 2010 and 2011, respectively. As formaldehyde (HCHO) is considered as the main oxidation product of isoprene and monoterpenes, it is necessary to investigate the link between HCHO and BVOC emissions. GOME-2 HCHO vertical column densities (VCDs) can be used to estimate BVOC emission fluxes in the Changbai Mountain temperate forest.  相似文献   

Initiation of large-volume silicic centers in the Yellowstone hotspot track: insights from H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O- and F-rich quartz-hosted rhyolitic melt inclusions in the Arbon Valley Tuff of the Snake River Plain     

Dana?L.?DrewEmail author  Ilya?N.?Bindeman  Matthew?W.?Loewen  Paul?J.?Wallace 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,171(1):10

During the onset of caldera cluster volcanism at a new location in the Snake River Plain (SRP), there is an increase in basalt fluxing into the crust and diverse silicic volcanic products are generated. The SRP contains abundant and compositionally diverse hot, dry, and often low-δ¹⁸O silicic volcanic rocks produced through time during the formation of individual caldera clusters, but more H₂O-rich eruptive products are rare. We report analyses of quartz-hosted melt inclusions from pumice clasts from the upper and lower Arbon Valley Tuff (AVT) to gain insight into the initiation of caldera cluster volcanism. The AVT, a voluminous, caldera-forming rhyolite, represents the commencement of volcanism (10.44 Ma) at the Picabo volcanic field of the Yellowstone hotspot track. This is a normal δ¹⁸O rhyolite consisting of early and late erupted members (lower and upper AVT, respectively) with extremely radiogenic Sr isotopes and unradiogenic Nd isotopes, requiring that ~50 % of the mass of these elements is derived from melts of Archean upper crust. Our data reveal distinctive features of the early erupted lower AVT melt including: variable F concentrations up to 1.4 wt%, homogenous and low Cl concentrations (~0.08 wt%), H₂O contents ranging from 2.3 to 6.4 wt%, CO₂ contents ranging from 79 to 410 ppm, and enrichment of incompatible elements compared to the late erupted AVT, subsequent Picabo rhyolites, SRP rhyolites, and melt inclusions from other metaluminous rhyolites (e.g., Bishop Tuff, Mesa Falls Tuff). We couple melt inclusion data with Ti measurements and cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging of the host quartz phenocrysts to elucidate the petrogenetic evolution of the AVT rhyolitic magma. We observe complex and multistage CL zoning patterns, the most critical being multiple truncations indicative of several dissolution–reprecipitation episodes with bright CL cores (higher Ti) and occasional bright CL rims (higher Ti). We interpret the high H₂O, F, F/Cl, and incompatible trace element concentrations in the context of a model involving melting of Archean crust and mixing of the crustal melt with basaltic differentiates, followed by multiple stages of fractional crystallization, remelting, and melt extraction. This multistage process, which we refer to as distillation, is further supported by the complex CL zoning patterns in quartz. We interpret new Δ¹⁸O(Qz-Mt) isotope measurements, demonstrating a 0.4 ‰ or ~180 °C temperature difference, and strong Sr isotopic and chemical differences between the upper and lower AVT to represent two separate eruptions. Similarities between the AVT and the first caldera-forming eruptions of other caldera clusters in the SRP (Yellowstone, Heise and Bruneau Jarbidge) suggest that the more evolved, lower-temperature, more H₂O-rich rhyolites of the SRP are important in the initiation of a caldera cluster during the onset of plume impingement.  相似文献   

Validation of MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields for monitoring deforestation and forest degradation: two cases in Mexico     

Yan Gao  Adrian Ghilardi  Jaime Paneque-Galvez  Margaret Skutsch  Jean François Mas 《国际地球制图》2016,31(9):1019-1031

This study assesses whether MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields percent tree cover (PTC) data can detect deforestation and forest degradation. To assess the usefulness of PTC for detecting deforestation, we used a data set consisting of eight forest and seven non-forest categories. To evaluate forest degradation, we used data from two temperate forest types in three conservation states: primary (dense), secondary (moderately degraded) and open (heavily degraded) forest. Our results show that PTC can differentiate temperate forest from non-forest categories (p = 0.05) and thus suggests PTC can adequately detect deforestation in temperate forests. In contrast, single-date PTC data does not appear to be adequate to detect forest degradation in temperate forests. As for tropical forest, PTC can partially discriminate between forest and non-forest categories.  相似文献   

Recursive algorithm for fast GNSS orbit fitting   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Shuqiang?XueEmail author  Yuanxi?Yang 《GPS Solutions》2016,20(2):151-157

Gaussian elimination is an efficient and numerically stable algorithm for estimating parameters and their precision. However, before estimating the parameters, it is often prudent to perform statistical tests to achieve the best fitting model. We use Gaussian elimination to select the best fitting model among candidate models. A succinct relationship between the weighted sum of squared residuals and the previous one is revealed by a volume formula. For quick parameter estimation and determination of weighted sum of squared residuals, a recursive elimination algorithm is proposed in the context of Gaussian elimination. In order to improve the model selection efficiency, the parameter estimation and the determination of the weighted sum of squared residuals are carried out in parallel using the proposed recursive elimination algorithm in which the improvement at each recursive stage is judged by the Bayesian information criterion. Ultimately, the computational complexity and numerical stability of the recursive elimination proposed are briefly discussed, and a GNSS orbit interpolation example is used to verify the results. It shows that the proposed recursive elimination algorithm inherits the numerical stability of the Gaussian elimination, and this algorithm can be used to examine the gain from the newly introduced parameter, dynamically assess the fitting model, and fix the optimal model efficiently. The optimal fitting model with the lowest information is very close to the real situation verified by checkpoints.  相似文献