Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Amanda?LenziEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Pierre?Pinson  Line?H.?Clemmensen  Gilles?Guillot 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1615-1631

Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology.  相似文献   

Shallow Circulations: Relevance and Strategies for Satellite Observation     

Gilles Bellon  Oliver Reitebuch  Ann Kristin Naumann 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(6):1509-1528

Shallow circulations are central to many tropical cloud systems. We investigate the potential of existing and upcoming data to document these circulations. Different methods to observe or constrain atmospheric circulations rely on satellite-borne instruments. Direct observations of the wind are currently possible at the ocean surface or using tracer patterns. Satellite-borne wind lidar will soon be available, with a much better coverage and accuracy. Meanwhile, circulations can be constrained using satellite observations of atmospheric diabatic heating. We evaluate the commonalities and discrepancies of these estimates together with reanalysis in systems that include shallow circulations. It appears that existing datasets are in qualitative agreement, but that they still differ too much to provide robust evaluation criteria for general circulation models. This state of affairs highlights the potential of satellite-borne wind lidar and of further work on current satellite retrievals.  相似文献   

Advances and Practices on the Research,Prevention and Control of Land Subsidence in Coastal Cities     

YAN Xuexin  YANG Tianliang  XU Yan  Luigi TOSI  Esther STOUTHAMER  Heri ANDREAS  Philip MINDERHOUD  Anirut LADAWADEE  Ramon HANSSEN  Gilles ERKENS  Pietro TEATINI  LIN Jinxin  Roberta BONì  Jarinya CHIMPALEE  HUANG Xinlei  Cristina Da LIO  Claudia MEISINA  Francesco ZUCCA 《《地质学报》英文版》2020,94(1):162-175

Land subsidence severely threatens most of the coastal plains around the world where high productive industrial and agricultural activities and urban centers are concentrated. Coastal subsidence damages infrastructures and exacerbates the effect of the sea-level rise at regional scale. Although it is a well-known process, there is still much more to be improved on the monitoring, mapping and modeling of ground movements, as well as the understanding of controlling mechanisms. The International Geoscience Programme recently approved an international project (IGCP 663) aiming to bring together worldwide researchers to share expertise on subsidence processes typically occurring in coastal areas and cities, including basic research, monitoring and observation, modelling and management. In this paper, we provide the research communities and potential stakeholders with the basic information to join the participating teams in developing this project. Specifically, major advances on coastal subsidence studies and information on well-known and new case studies of land subsidence in China, Italy, The Netherlands, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand are highlighted and summarized. Meanwhile, the networking, dissemination, annual meeting and field trip are briefly introduced.  相似文献   

Mega-monsoon variability during the late Triassic: Re-assessing the role of orbital forcing in the deposition of playa sediments in the Germanic Basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

André Bahr  Gilles Kolber  Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr  Lutz Reinhardt  Oliver Friedrich  Jörg Pross 《Sedimentology》2020,67(2):951-970

The formation of the supercontinent Pangaea during the Permo–Triassic gave rise to an extreme monsoonal climate (often termed ‘mega-monsoon’) that has been documented by numerous palaeo-records. However, considerable debate exists about the role of orbital forcing in causing humid intervals in an otherwise arid climate. To shed new light on the forcing of monsoonal variability in subtropical Pangaea, this study focuses on sediment facies and colour variability of playa and alluvial fan deposits in an outcrop from the late Carnian (ca 225 Ma) in the southern Germanic Basin, south-western Germany. The sediments were deposited against a background of increasingly arid conditions following the humid Carnian Pluvial Event (ca 234 to 232 Ma). The ca 2·4 Myr long sedimentary succession studied shows a tripartite long-term evolution, starting with a distal mud-flat facies deposited under arid conditions. This phase was followed by a highly variable playa-lake environment that documents more humid conditions and finally a regression of the playa-lake due to a return of arid conditions. The red–green (a*) and lightness (L*) records show that this long-term variability was overprinted by alternating wet/dry cycles driven by orbital precession and ca 405 kyr eccentricity, without significant influence of obliquity. The absence of obliquity in this record indicates that high-latitude forcing played only a minor role in the southern Germanic Basin during the late Carnian. This is different from the subsequent Norian when high-latitude signals became more pronounced, potentially related to the northward drift of the Germanic Basin. The recurring pattern of pluvial events during the late Triassic demonstrates that orbital forcing, in particular eccentricity, stimulated the occurrence and intensity of wet phases. It also highlights the possibility that the Carnian Pluvial Event, although most likely triggered by enhanced volcanic activity, may also have been modified by an orbital stimulus.  相似文献   

Revisiting the morphological method in two-dimensions to quantify bed-material transport in braided rivers     

Gilles Antoniazza  Maarten Bakker  Stuart N. Lane 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(11):2251-2267

Research in the 1990s showed that bed-material transport rates could be estimated at the reach scale in both one-dimension and, over small spatial scales (10s of m), in two-dimensions. The limit on the latter was the spatial scale over which it was possible to obtain distributed data on morphological change. Here, we revisit the morphological method given progress in both topographical data acquisition and hydraulic modelling. The bed-material transport needed to conserve mass is calculated in both one and two dimensions for a 1600 m × 300 m Alpine braided river “laboratory”. High-resolution topographical data were acquired by laser scanning to quantify Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), and morphological changes caused by the flushing of the water intake were derived from repeated surveys. Based on DEMs of differences, 1D bed-material transport rates were calculated using the morphological method. Then, a 2D hydraulic model was combined with a topographic correction to route sediment through the network of braided channels and to obtain a spatially variable estimate of transport in both downstream and cross-stream directions. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to the routing model parameters, allowing identification of the most probable parameter values needed to minimize negative transport. The results show that within-section spatial compensation of erosion and deposition using the 1D treatment leads to substantial local errors in transport rate estimates, to a degree related to braiding intensity. Even though the 2D application showed that a large proportion of the total transport was actually concentrated into one main channel during the studied low flow event, the proportion of transport in secondary anabranches is substantial when the river starts braiding. Investigations of the effects of DEM resolution, competent flow duration and survey frequency related to ‘travelling bedload’ and sequential erosion-deposition emphasized the critical importance of careful data collection in the application of the morphological method. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Non-parametric seismic data recovery with curvelet frames   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

Felix J. Herrmann  Gilles Hennenfent 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,173(1):233-248

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Impact of cross-reef water fluxes on lagoon dynamics: a simple parameterization for coral lagoon circulation model,with application to the Ouano Lagoon,New Caledonia     

Cristele Chevalier  Damien Sous  Jean-Luc Devenon  Marc Pagano  Gilles Rougier  Jean Blanchot 《Ocean Dynamics》2015,65(11):1509-1534

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Jahresbericht 2008 und Bericht über die 124. Ordentliche Generalversammlung der Schweizerischen Geologischen Gesellschaft in Lugano     

Gilles Borel 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2009,102(2):365-369

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Modelling the impact of tectonics,surface conditions and sea surface temperatures on Saharan and sub-Saharan climate evolution     

Pierre Sepulchre  Gilles Ramstein  Mathieu Schuster 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2009,341(8-9):612-620

Using an Atmospheric Global Circulation Model, we assess the relevance of selected atmospheric mechanisms for climate evolution of Saharan and sub-Saharan regions since the Miocene. First, we test the influence of the East-African Rift System uplift on atmospheric dynamics. Although the uplift played an important role in triggering East-African rainfall, no significant impact over central and western Africa has been detected. We also analyse the feedbacks of a giant lake on the climate of Chad basin. First results infer a negative feedback of the giant lake on the water balance, as convection is weakened by the cold water surface and as water evaporated from the lake does not feed the basin hydrological cycle. Lastly, we suggest that colder than present sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of Guinea reinforce the West-African monsoon, by enhancing the moisture advection engine via stronger thermal contrast between the ocean and the continent.  相似文献   

Triassic <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar ages from the Sakaigawa unit,Kii Peninsula,Japan: implications for possible merger of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt with large-scale tectonic systems of the East Asian margin     

Koen de Jong  Chikao Kurimoto  Gilles Ruffet 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2009,98(6):1529-1556

The 218.4 ± 0.4, 228.8 ± 0.9 and 231.9 ± 0.7 Ma ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar laser probe pseudo-plateau ages (2σ; 49–63% ³⁹Ar-release) of very low-grade meta-pelitic whole-rocks from the Sakaigawa unit date high-P/T metamorphism. We argue that this event occurred in a subduction–accretion complex, not along the East Asian continental margin, but on the Pacific side of the proto-Japan superterrane. Proto-Japan was a Permian magmatic arc, presently dispersed in the Japanese islands, which also contained older subduction–accretion complexes. The arc system was fringing but not yet part of the Eurasian continent. The Middle to Late Triassic high-P/T tectono-metamorphic event was partly coeval with proto-Japan’s collision with proto-Eurasia along the southward extension of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, causing the main metamorphism in the Hida-Oki terrane. It is possible that this system continued via the Cathaysia block (China) to Indochina. The Late Permian to Middle Triassic Indosinian event might stem from docking of Pacific-derived terranes with Southeast Asia’s continental margin. The concept of the proto-Japan superterrane implies that the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu suture zone joined the Central Asian Orogenic Belt to the east of the North China craton and did not continue to Japan, as commonly assumed.  相似文献