Determination of first-order degradation rate constants from monitoring networks   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Beyer C  Chen C  Gronewold J  Kolditz O  Bauer S 《Ground water》2007,45(6):774-785

In this article, different strategies for estimating first-order degradation rate constants from measured field data are compared by application to multiple, synthetic, contaminant plumes. The plumes were generated by numerical simulation of contaminant transport and degradation in virtual heterogeneous aquifers. These sites were then individually and independently investigated on the computer by installation of extensive networks of observation wells. From the data measured at the wells, that is, contaminant concentrations, hydraulic conductivities, and heads, first-order degradation rates were estimated by three 1D centerline methods, which use only measurements located on the plume axis, and a two-dimensional method, which uses all concentration measurements available downgradient from the contaminant source. Results for both strategies show that the true rate constant used for the numerical simulation of the plumes in general tends to be overestimated. Overestimation is stronger for narrow plumes from small source zones, with an average overestimation factor of about 5 and single values ranging from 0.5 to 20, decreasing for wider plumes, with an average overestimation factor of about 2 and similar spread. Reasons for this overestimation are identified in the velocity calculation, the dispersivity parameterization, and off-centerline measurements. For narrow plumes, the one- and the two-dimensional strategies show approximately the same amount of overestimation. For wider plumes, however, incorporation of all measurements in the two-dimensional approach reduces the estimation error. No significant relation between the number of observation wells in the monitoring network and the quality of the estimated rate constant is found for the two-dimensional approach.  相似文献   

Temperature-, Salinity-, and Size-Dependent Winter Mortality of Juvenile Blue Crabs (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Callinectes sapidus</Emphasis>)     

Laurie J. Bauer  Thomas J. Miller 《Estuaries and Coasts》2010,33(3):668-677

The blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, is an ecologically and economically valuable species in Chesapeake Bay. Field surveys and laboratory experiments indicate that blue crab mortality is significant during severe winters. We applied a temperature and salinity-dependent survival model to empirical temperature and salinity data to explore spatial and interannual patterns in overwintering mortality. Harmonic regression analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to create spatially explicit maps of estimated winter duration, average temperature, average salinity, and resulting crab survival probability for the winters of 1990–2004. Predicted survival was highest in the warmer, saline waters of the lower Bay and decreased with increasing latitude up bay. There was also significant interannual variation with survival being lowest after the severe winters of 1996 and 2003. We combine the survival probability maps with maps of blue crab abundance to show how winter mortality may reduce blue crab abundance prior to the start of the harvesting season.  相似文献   

Evaluation of a climate simulation in Europe based on the WRF–NOAH model system: precipitation in Germany     

Kirsten Warrach-Sagi  Thomas Schwitalla  Volker Wulfmeyer  Hans-Stefan Bauer 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):755-774

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with its land surface model NOAH was set up and applied as regional climate model over Europe. It was forced with the latest ERA-interim reanalysis data from 1989 to 2008 and operated with 0.33° and 0.11° resolution. This study focuses on the verification of monthly and seasonal mean precipitation over Germany, where a high quality precipitation dataset of the German Weather Service is available. In particular, the precipitation is studied in the orographic terrain of southwestern Germany and the dry lowlands of northeastern Germany. In both regions precipitation data is very important for end users such as hydrologists and farmers. Both WRF simulations show a systematic positive precipitation bias not apparent in ERA-interim and an overestimation of wet day frequency. The downscaling experiment improved the annual cycle of the precipitation intensity, which is underestimated by ERA-interim. Normalized Taylor diagrams, i.e., those discarding the systematic bias by normalizing the quantities, demonstrate that downscaling with WRF provides a better spatial distribution than the ERA interim precipitation analyses in southwestern Germany and most of the whole of Germany but degrades the results for northeastern Germany. At the applied model resolution of 0.11°, WRF shows typical systematic errors of RCMs in orographic terrain such as the windward–lee effect. A convection permitting case study set up for summer 2007 improved the precipitation simulations with respect to the location of precipitation maxima in the mountainous regions and the spatial correlation of precipitation. This result indicates the high value of regional climate simulations on the convection-permitting scale.  相似文献   

An infrared imaging survey of the faint Chandra sources near the Galactic Centre     

R. M. Bandyopadhyay  J. C. A. Miller-Jones  K. M. Blundell  F. E. Bauer  Ph. Podsiadlowski  A. J. Gosling  Q. D. Wang  E. Pfahl  S. Rappaport 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,364(4):1195-1202

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Climate variability in millennium integrations with coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs: a spectral view     

J.-S. von Storch  P. Müller  E. Bauer 《Climate Dynamics》2001,17(5-6):375-389

 Climate variations in four millennium integrations obtained with coupled GCMs are studied from a spectral point of view. It is shown that the bulk of these variations can be described by two distinctly different types of spectra. The type-I spectra, characterized by a high-frequency ω⁻² slope (with ω being frequency) and a low-frequency plateau, indicate the dominance of short-term fluctuations in generating climate variations. They are obtained for many atmospheric variables and variables representing predominantly the upper ocean and the high-latitude part of the deep ocean. The time scale, at which the spectra level off, varies from a few days for grid-point time series of atmospheric variables, to a few months for time series of large-scale atmospheric patterns, several years for SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, and a few decades for variables describing oceanic baroclinic waves. The type-II spectra are obtained in the ocean interior, which is shielded from the fluctuating forcing at the surface. Since the ocean model does not produce oceanic eddies, the disappearance of type-I spectra in the deep ocean indicates that the fluctuating surface forcing does not fully penetrate into the deep ocean. While type-I spectra are supported by observations, type-II spectra might describe a model specific phenomenon and the realism of these spectra is still a open question. Received: 12 January 2000 / Accepted: 14 June 2000  相似文献   

Arsenic redox transformation by humic substances and Fe minerals     

Andreas Kappler  Katja Amstaetter  Thomas Borch  Philip Larese-Casanova  Jie Jiang  Iris Bauer  Andrea Paul 《Applied Geochemistry》2011

The toxicity and mobility of the redox-active metalloid As strongly depends on its oxidation state, with As(III) (arsenite) being more toxic and mobile than As(V) (arsenate). It is, therefore, necessary to know the biogeochemical processes potentially influencing As redox state to understand and predict its environmental behavior. The first part of this presentation will discuss the quantification of As redox changes by pH-neutral mineral suspensions of goethite [α-Fe^IIIOOH] amended with Fe(II) using wet-chemical and synchrotron X-ray absorption (XANES) analysis (Amstaetter et al., 2010). First, it was found that goethite itself did not oxidize As(III). Second, in contrast to thermodynamic predictions, Fe(II)–goethite systems did not reduce As(V). However, surprisingly, rapid oxidation of As(III) to As(V) was observed in Fe(II)–goethite systems. Iron speciation and mineral analysis by Mössbauer spectroscopy showed rapid formation of ⁵⁷Fe–goethite after ⁵⁷Fe(II) addition and the formation of a so far unidentified additional Fe(II) phase. No other Fe(III) phase could be detected by Mössbauer spectroscopy, EXAFS, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction or high-resolution transmission electron microscopy. This suggests that reactive Fe(III) species form as an intermediate Fe(III) phase upon Fe(II) addition and electron transfer into bulk goethite but before crystallization of the newly formed Fe(III) as goethite.The second part of the presentation will show that semiquinone radicals produced during microbial or chemical reduction of a humic substance model quinone (AQDS, 9,10-anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonic acid) can react with As and change its redox state (Jiang et al., 2009). The results of these experiments showed that these semiquinone radicals are strong oxidants and oxidize arsenite to arsenate, thus decreasing As toxicity and mobility. The oxidation of As(III) depended strongly on pH. More arsenite (up to 67.3%) was oxidized at pH 11 compared to pH 7 (12.6% oxidation) and pH 3 (0.5% oxidation). In addition to As(III) oxidation by semiquinone radicals, hydroquinones that were also produced during quinone reduction, reduced As(V) to As(III) at neutral and acidic pH values (less than 12%) but not at alkaline pH. In an attempt to understand the observed redox reactions between As and reduced/oxidized quinones present in humic substances, the radical content in reduced AQDS solutions was quantified and Eh-pH diagrams were constructed. Both the radical quantification and the Eh-pH diagram allowed explaining the observed redox reactions between the reduced AQDS solutions and the As.In summary these studies indicate that in the simultaneous presence of Fe(III) oxyhydroxides, Fe(II), and humic substances as commonly observed in environments inhabited by Fe-reducing microorganisms, As(III) oxidation can occur. This potentially explains the presence of As(V) in reduced groundwater aquifers.  相似文献   

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alexander Popp  Steven K. Rose  Katherine Calvin  Detlef P. Van Vuuren  Jan Phillip Dietrich  Marshall Wise  Elke Stehfest  Florian Humpenöder  Page Kyle  Jasper Van Vliet  Nico Bauer  Hermann Lotze-Campen  David Klein  Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):495-509

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.  相似文献   

Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds     

David McCollum  Nico Bauer  Katherine Calvin  Alban Kitous  Keywan Riahi 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):413-426

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate. Aggressive efforts to promote energy efficiency are, on their own, not likely to lead to markedly greater energy independence, however, contrary to the stated objectives of certain industrialized countries.  相似文献   

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE     

David Klein  Gunnar Luderer  Elmar Kriegler  Jessica Strefler  Nico Bauer  Marian Leimbach  Alexander Popp  Jan Philipp Dietrich  Florian Humpenöder  Hermann Lotze-Campen  Ottmar Edenhofer 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):705-718

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.  相似文献   

Calibrating a Salt Water Intrusion Model with Time‐Domain Electromagnetic Data     

Daan Herckenrath  Nick Odlum  Vanessa Nenna  Rosemary Knight  Esben Auken  Peter Bauer‐Gottwein 《Ground water》2013,51(3):385-397

Salt water intrusion models are commonly used to support groundwater resource management in coastal aquifers. Concentration data used for model calibration are often sparse and limited in spatial extent. With airborne and ground‐based electromagnetic surveys, electrical resistivity models can be obtained to provide high‐resolution three‐dimensional models of subsurface resistivity variations that can be related to geology and salt concentrations on a regional scale. Several previous studies have calibrated salt water intrusion models with geophysical data, but are typically limited to the use of the inverted electrical resistivity models without considering the measured geophysical data directly. This induces a number of errors related to inconsistent scales between the geophysical and hydrologic models and the applied regularization constraints in the geophysical inversion. To overcome these errors, we perform a coupled hydrogeophysical inversion (CHI) in which we use a salt water intrusion model to interpret the geophysical data and guide the geophysical inversion. We refer to this methodology as a Coupled Hydrogeophysical Inversion‐State (CHI‐S), in which simulated salt concentrations are transformed to an electrical resistivity model, after which a geophysical forward response is calculated and compared with the measured geophysical data. This approach was applied for a field site in Santa Cruz County, California, where a time‐domain electromagnetic (TDEM) dataset was collected. For this location, a simple two‐dimensional cross‐sectional salt water intrusion model was developed, for which we estimated five uniform aquifer properties, incorporating the porosity that was also part of the employed petrophysical relationship. In addition, one geophysical parameter was estimated. The six parameters could be resolved well by fitting more than 300 apparent resistivities that were comprised by the TDEM dataset. Except for three sounding locations, all the TDEM data could be fitted close to a root‐mean‐square error of 1. Possible explanations for the poor fit of these soundings are the assumption of spatial uniformity, fixed boundary conditions and the neglecting of 3D effects in the groundwater model and the TDEM forward responses.  相似文献