Improved regional scale processes reflected in projected hydrological changes over large European catchments     

Stefan Hagemann  Holger Göttel  Daniela Jacob  Philip Lorenz  Erich Roeckner 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(6):767-781

For the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the recent version of the coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model (GCM) of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology has been used to conduct an ensemble of transient climate simulations These simulations comprise three control simulations for the past century covering the period 1860–2000, and nine simulations for the future climate (2001–2100) using greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations according to the three IPCC scenarios B1, A1B and A2. For each scenario three simulations were performed. The global simulations were dynamically downscaled over Europe using the regional climate model (RCM) REMO at 0.44° horizontal resolution (about 50 km), whereas the physics packages of the GCM and RCM largely agree. The regional simulations comprise the three control simulations (1950–2000), the three A1B simulations and one simulation for B1 as well as for A2 (2001–2100). In our study we concentrate on the climate change signals in the hydrological cycle and the 2 m temperature by comparing the mean projected climate at the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100) to a control period representing current climate (1961–1990). The robustness of the climate change signal projected by the GCM and RCM is analysed focussing on the large European catchments of Baltic Sea (land only), Danube and Rhine. In this respect, a robust climate change signal designates a projected change that sticks out of the noise of natural climate variability. Catchments and seasons are identified where the climate change signal in the components of the hydrological cycle is robust, and where this signal has a larger uncertainty. Notable differences in the robustness of the climate change signals between the GCM and RCM simulations are related to a stronger warming projected by the GCM in the winter over the Baltic Sea catchment and in the summer over the Danube and Rhine catchments. Our results indicate that the main explanation for these differences is that the finer resolution of the RCM leads to a better representation of local scale processes at the surface that feed back to the atmosphere, i.e. an improved representation of the land sea contrast and related moisture transport processes over the Baltic Sea catchment, and an improved representation of soil moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere over the Danube and Rhine catchments.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of an ecosystem model to hydrology and temperature     

Annett Wolf  Eleanor Blyth  Richard Harding  Daniela Jacob  Elke Keup-Thiel  Holger Goettel  Terry Callaghan 《Climatic change》2008,87(1-2):75-89

We tested the sensitivity of a dynamic ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) to the representation of soil moisture and soil temperature and to uncertainties in the prediction of precipitation and air temperature. We linked the ecosystem model with an advanced hydrological model (JULES) and used its soil moisture and soil temperature as input into the ecosystem model. We analysed these sensitivities along a latitudinal gradient in northern Russia. Differences in soil temperature and soil moisture had only little influence on the vegetation carbon fluxes, whereas the soil carbon fluxes were very sensitive to the JULES soil estimations. The sensitivity changed with latitude, showing stronger influence in the more northern grid cell. The sensitivity of modelled responses of both soil carbon fluxes and vegetation carbon fluxes to uncertainties in soil temperature were high, as both soil and vegetation carbon fluxes were strongly impacted. In contrast, uncertainties in the estimation of the amount of precipitation had little influence on the soil or vegetation carbon fluxes. The high sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature and moisture suggests that we should strive for a better understanding and representation of soil processes in ecosystem models to improve the reliability of predictions of future ecosystem changes.  相似文献   

Gas removal and the initial mass function of star clusters     

Geneviève Parmentier  Simon P. Goodwin  Pavel Kroupa  Holger Baumgardt 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,324(2-4):327-332

We explore how the expulsion of gas from star-forming cores due to supernova explosions affects the shape of the initial cluster mass function, that is, the mass function of star clusters when cluster infant weight-loss triggered by gas expulsion is over. We demonstrate that if the radii of cluster-forming gas ‘cores’ are roughly constant over the core mass range, as supported by observations, then more massive cores undergo slower gas expulsion. Therefore, for a given star-formation efficiency, more massive cores retain a larger fraction of stars after gas expulsion. The initial cluster mass function may thus substantially differ from the core mass function, with the final shape depending on the star-formation efficiency. A mass-independent star-formation efficiency of about 20% turns a power-law core mass function into a bell-shaped initial cluster mass function, while mass-independent efficiencies of order 40% preserve the shape of the core mass function.  相似文献   

Geophysical investigations of buried Quaternary valleys in Denmark: an integrated application of transient electromagnetic soundings, reflection seismic surveys and exploratory drillings   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Flemming Jrgensen  Holger Lykke-Andersen  Peter B. E. Sandersen  Esben Auken  Egon Nrmark 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2003,53(4):215

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A new approach to interpreting Rock-Eval S₂ and TOC data for kerogen quality assessment     

Birger Dahl  Jrgen Bojesen-Koefoed  Anders Holm  Holger Justwan  Egil Rasmussen  Erik Thomsen 《Organic Geochemistry》2004,35(11-12):1461

A simple method for application in source potential mapping is used to assess the original oil and gas potentials in source rock horizons based upon Rock-Eval potential (S₂) and total organic carbon (TOC) values. The method assumes that kerogens consist of mixtures of end-members with assigned hydrogen index values. Based on suggested algorithms, the average amounts of oil-prone, gas-prone and inert organic material over source rock intervals are determined in TOC units. The method uses regression lines from plots of remaining hydrocarbon potentials (S₂) versus total organic carbon (TOC), and “quick-look” transparent overlays are used to read the appropriate kerogen mixture.Mineral matrix effects during pyrolysis, when strong, can cause erroneous results. This effect which occurs for oil-prone kerogens and adsorptive minerals can cause problems particularly for lean samples (S₂ = 0–3 mg HC/g rock) whilst the errors for richer samples are less.The method is applied on three sections of Upper Jurassic organic-rich rocks from the Danish North Sea sector, which are at different maturity stages. One of these sections is dominated by gas-prone material, one is dominated by oil-prone material and the third section contains a mixture of oil- and gas-prone material.The method has been compared with other methods that split kerogens in oil and gas generating potential and has given reasonable results.Experience using the method and a presented example suggest that sedimentological, system tract information may be derived from S₂ to TOC cross-plots. A constructed modelling example suggests that the end-member concept used in this approach may be used in forward type source rock prediction models when combined with sedimentological models. The resulting S₂–TOC plots can be used in order to check the forward modelling results against observed values.  相似文献   

Syndeformational recrystallization – dynamic or compositionally induced?     

Holger Stünitz 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1998,131(2-3):219-236

Dynamic recrystallization in the strict sense of the term is the reconstitution of crystalline material without a change in chemical composition, driven by strain energy in the form of dislocations. Driving potentials additional to internal strain energy may contribute to the recrystallization of naturally deformed minerals, which form solid solutions such as feldspar, amphiboles and pyroxenes, if they change their composition during recrystallization. To estimate the relative importance of these driving potentials, the chemical composition of porphyroclasts and recrystallized grains of plagioclase, clinopyroxene and hornblende have been investigated in samples from a high grade shear zone of the Ivrea Zone, Italy. The plagioclases show two different recrystallization microstructures: bulging recrystallization at grain boundaries and discrete zones of recrystallized grains across porphyroclasts probably involving fracturing. Deformation took place under amphibolite facies conditions on a retrograde P,T-path. Porphyroclast and recrystallized compositions from bulging recrystallization microstructures differ only in their Or-content and yield a ΔG between mean host grain and mean recrystallized grain composition at fixed P,T-conditions of approximately 5 Joules/10⁻⁴ m³. Extreme compositional variations yield approximately 60 J/10⁻⁴m³. The increase of free energy due to dislocations calculated for common glide systems in plagioclase are on the order of 100 Joules/10⁻⁴m³ for high values of dislocation densities of 10¹⁴m⁻². Thus, the effect of chemically induced driving energies on grain boundary velocity appears small for mean compositions but may be as great as that of deformational energies for larger chemical differences. In the other type of microstructure, porphyroclasts and recrystallized grains in discrete zones differ in their anorthite content. The maximum ΔG induced by the compositional disequilibrium is on the order of 100 J/10⁻⁴m³. This maximum value is of the same magnitude as the ΔG derived from high dislocation densities of 10¹⁴ m⁻². The resulting combined ΔG is approximately twice as high as for deformational ΔG alone, and heterogeneous nucleation may become a feasible recrystallization mechanism which is evident from the microstructures. The recrystallization mechanism depends on the nature of the driving potential. Grain boundary migration (GBM) and heterogeneous nucleation can release Gibbs free energy induced by compositional disequilibrium, whereas this is not likely for subgrain rotation. Therefore, only GBM and heterogeneous nucleation may link metamorphism and deformation, so that syndeformational recrystallization may represent a transitional process ranging from dynamic recrystallization to metamorphic reaction. Received: 8 July 1996 / Accepted: 17 November 1997  相似文献   

Turbulent mixing in the Northern North Sea: a numerical model study     

Karsten Bolding  Hans Burchard  Thomas Pohlmann  Adolf Stips 《Continental Shelf Research》2002,22(18-19)

The aim of this study is to intervalidate observations and numerical simulation results for the turbulent dissipation rate under strong wind conditions in the Northern North Sea during one week in October 1998. The observations were obtained by spatially and temporally averaging measurements of small-scale shear with a free-falling shear probe. The 1D numerical model used for this study is based on a state-of-the-art two-equation k− turbulence model with an algebraic second-moment closure scheme. It is discussed by means of annual and seasonal model simulations how the influence of heat and salt advection and internal waves can be accounted for. After these precautions, the agreement between observations and simulations of the turbulent dissipation rate are fairly good. Remaining differences cannot only be explained by problems such as undersampling and noise level, but also by idealising model assumptions.  相似文献   

The South China Sea warm-core ring 94S and its influence on the distribution of chemical tracers   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

Li Li  Thomas Pohlmann 《Ocean Dynamics》2002,52(3):116-122

 In this paper, the distributions of currents and chemical tracers were studied along two hydrographic sections across ring 94S, a warm-core ring found in the South China Sea. Results suggest that while currents on its offshore side maintained quasigeostrophic balance, such a balance was not reached on its onshore side. Therefore, it is suggested that interactions of ring 94S with the slope may play an important role: it may break down the quasigeostrophic balance and cause a deformation of the current field. The observed distribution of δ¹⁸O supports the hypothesis that water masses inside the ring originate from the Kuroshio. Distributions of chemical tracers reveal a strong vertical disturbance of the isolines at the edge of ring 94S, where it approaches the shelf. This phenomenon may play an important role in the vertical exchange of biochemical elements across the thermocline. Possible reasons, i.e., enhanced vertical mixing and upwelling, are discussed. Received: 16 May 2001 / Accepted: 5 November 2001  相似文献   

Zur Geologie und Mineralogie der Kalk- und Gipskrusten Algeriens     

Dr. Holger Kulke 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1974,63(3):970-998

Caliches: Large areas of the northern Sahara and the Algerian High Planes are covered by mostly 1–5 m thick caliches. Their age (Pliocene in the Sahara) decreases to the north and their precipitation is generally independent of groundwater. Their profile is composed (from top to base) as follows:

Upper soil, loose and mostly of eolian origin.

Upper part of caliche, with very characteristic, dense, partly layered-knobby texture, formed slowly by solutional and reprecipitational processes of ± freely outcropping caliches under addition of eolian material.

Under part of caliche, highly porous, somewhat chalky and greyish-white; precipitated mainly by capillar rise of solutions in permeable and calcareous rocks.

Substratum, preferentially calcareous sandstones, alluvial deposits and marls.

The mineralogy of the caliches (whose main components are represented in fig. 4 A-C) is rather monotonous: in addition to relicts of the substratum (partly dissolved or pushed aside by precipitation of calcite), there are only newly formed low-Mg-calcite and some quarzine (length-slow quartz). Sr-contents of calcite rise clearly from substratum to upper part of caliche. Gypsiferous Crusts (or Cementations): They are found mainly in the surroundings of Chotts (flat, ± saline lakes) and in oases of the NE-Algerian Sahara. Their formation began — mostly caused climatically — after the period of caliche formation and is still continuing in some places. Most of these gypsum-crusts are formed by evaporation of near-surface groundwaters in sandy soils. Water saturated in gypsum precipitates large crystals of gypsum (relatively low in Sr), partly filled by sand, at groundwater-surface. Fine crystalline crusts (relatively high in Sr) are formed by ascendent waters with lower gypsum content ± directly under the landsurface.  相似文献   

Potential representation by independent configurations on a multi-electrode array     

Holger Lehmann 《Geophysical Journal International》1995,120(2):331-338

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