A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models     

Ahmed Mustafa  Ismaïl Saadi  Mario Cools  Jacques Teller 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(11):2317-2333

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.  相似文献   

Influence of the Surf Zone on the Marine Aerosol Concentration in a Coastal Area     

Gilles Tedeschi  Alexander M. J. van Eijk  Jacques Piazzola  Jolanta T. Kusmierczyk-Michulec 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,163(2):327-350

Sea-salt aerosol concentrations in the coastal zone are assessed with the numerical aerosol-transport model MACMod that applies separate aerosol source functions for open ocean and the surf zone near the sea–land transition. Numerical simulations of the aerosol concentration as a function of offshore distance from the surf zone compare favourably with experimental data obtained during a surf-zone aerosol experiment in Duck, North Carolina in autumn 2007. Based on numerical simulations, the effect of variations in aerosol production (source strength) and transport conditions (wind speed, air–sea temperature difference), we show that the surf-zone aerosols are replaced by aerosols generated over the open ocean as the airmass advects out to sea. The contribution from the surf-generated aerosol is significant during high wind speeds and high wave events, and is significant up to 30 km away from the production zone. At low wind speeds, the oceanic component dominates, except within 1–5 km of the surf zone. Similar results are obtained for onshore flow, where no further sea-salt aerosol production occurs as the airmass advects out over land. The oceanic aerosols that are well-mixed throughout the boundary layer are then more efficiently transported inland than are the surf-generated aerosols, which are confined to the first few tens of metres above the surface, and are therefore also more susceptible to the type of surface (trees or grass) that determines the deposition velocity.  相似文献   

Evidence of a Mixed-Layer Dynamics Contribution to the Entrainment Process     

Cyrille Flamant  Jacques Pelon  Bart Brashers  Robert A. Brown 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,93(1):47-73

The internal thermal boundary layer developing over the Mediterranean during a cold-air outbreak associated with a Tramontane event has been studied by means of airborne lidar, in situ sensors, and a modelling approach that consisted of nesting the University of Washington (UW) planetary boundary-layer (PBL) model in an advective zero-order jump model. This approach bypasses some of the deficiencies associated with each model: the absence of the dynamics in the mixed layer for the zero-order jump model and the lack of an inversion at the PBL top for the UW PBL model. Particular attention is given to the parameterization of the entrainment flux at the PBL top. Values of the entrainment closure parameter derived with the model when matching PBL structure observations are much lower than those derived with standard zero-order jump models. They also are in good agreement with values measured in different meteorological situations by other studies. This improvement is a result of the introduction of turbulent kinetic energy production in the mixed layer.  相似文献   

Seismic electric signals in seismic prone areas          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas V.Sarlis  Panayiotis A.Varotsos  Efthimios S.Skordas  Seiya Uyeda  Jacques Zlotnicki  Toshiyasu Nagao  Anatoly Rybin  Mary S.Lazaridou-Varotsos  Konstantina A.Papadopoulou 《地震科学（英文版）》2018,31(1):44-51

The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos(VAN) method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthquake by observing transient changes of the electric field of the Earth termed seismic electric signals(SES). Here, we present a few examples of SES observed in various earthquake prone areas worldwide.  相似文献   

A case study of using Raman lidar measurements in high-accuracy GPS applications     

Pierre Bosser  Olivier Bock  Christian Thom  Jacques Pelon  Pascal Willis 《Journal of Geodesy》2010,84(4):251-265

This paper investigates the impact of rapid small-scale water vapor fluctuations on GPS height determination. Water vapor measurements from a Raman lidar are used for documenting the water vapor heterogeneities and correcting GPS signal propagation delays in clear sky conditions. We use data from four short observing sessions (6 h) during the VAPIC experiment (15 May–15 June 2004). The retrieval of wet delays from our Raman lidar is shown to agree well with radiosonde retrievals (bias and standard deviation (SD) were smaller than 1 and 2.8 mm, respectively) and microwave radiometers (from two different instruments, bias was 6.0/−6.6 mm and SD 1.3/3.8 mm). A standard GPS data analysis is shown to fail in accurately reproducing fast zenith wet delay (ZWD) variations. The ZWD estimates could be improved when mean post-fit phase residuals were removed. Several methodologies for integrating zenith lidar observations into the GPS data processing are also presented. The final method consists in using lidar wet delays for correcting a priori the GPS phase observations and estimating a scale factor for the lidar wet delays jointly with the GPS station position. The estimation of this scale factor allows correcting for a mis-calibration in the lidar data and provides in the same way an estimate of the Raman lidar instrument constant. The agreement of this constant with an independent determination using radiosonde data is at the level of 1–4%. The lidar wet delays were derived by ray-tracing from zenith pointing measurements: further improvement in GPS positioning is expected from slant path lidar measurements that would properly account for water vapor anisotropy.  相似文献   

The international conference “Vortices and coherent structures: from ocean to microfluids”, Vladivostok,Russia, 28–31 August 2017     

Prants  Sergey  Reznik  Gregory  Verron  Jacques 《Ocean Dynamics》2019,69(4):509-512

The international conference “Vortices and coherent structures: from ocean to microfluids” was held at the Pacific Oceanological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Vladivostok (Russia) from August 28 to August 31, 2017. The event gathered experimentalists and theoreticians, oceanographers and physicists, with a common interest in observing and modelling fluid flows in different media, from the ocean to laboratory flows. It was a fruitful idea to bring together researchers from a variety of backgrounds to benefit from a vigorous discussion of concepts across different disciplines in oceanography and hydrodynamics.

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A Review on Forearc Ophiolite Obduction,Adakite-Like Generation,and Slab Window Development at the Chile Triple Junction Area: Uniformitarian Framework for Spreading-Ridge Subduction     

Jacques Bourgois  Yves Lagabrielle  Hervé Martin  Jérôme Dyment  Jose Frutos  Maria Eugenia Cisternas 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(10-11):3217-3246

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Reconstructing a prehistoric topography using legacy point data in a depositional environment          下载免费PDF全文

Julian A. M. Vermeer  Peter A. Finke  Ann Zwertvaegher  Vanessa Gelorini  Machteld Bats  Marc Antrop  Jacques Verniers  Philippe Crombé 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(5):632-645

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FEM × DEM modelling of cohesive granular materials: Numerical homogenisation and multi-scale simulations   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Trung Kien Nguyen  Gaël Combe  Denis Caillerie  Jacques Desrues 《Acta Geophysica》2014,62(5):1109-1126

The article presents a multi-scale modelling approach of cohesive granular materials, its numerical implementation and its results. At microscopic level, Discrete Element Method (DEM) is used to model dense grains packing. At the macroscopic level, the numerical solution is obtained by a Finite Element Method (FEM). In order to bridge the micro- and macro-scales, the concept of Representative Elementary Volume (REV) is applied, in which the average REV stress and the consistent tangent operators are obtained in each macroscopic integration point as the results of DEM’s simulation. In this way, the numerical constitutive law is determined through the detailed modelling of the microstructure, taking into account the nature of granular materials. We first elaborate the principle of the computation homogenisation (FEM × DEM), then demonstrate the features of our multiscale computation in terms of a biaxial compression test. Macroscopic strain location is observed and discussed.  相似文献   

On the computation of the electrical potential inside a horizontally‐layered half‐space     

Alexis Maineult  Jean‐Jacques Schott 《Geophysical Prospecting》2012,60(1):153-160

A new formulation is proposed for the electrical potential developed inside a horizontally‐layered half‐space for a direct current point‐source at the surface. The recursion formula for the kernel coefficient in the potential integral is simpler than the generally used two‐coefficient recursion. The numerical difficulties that may occur during the computation of the integrals and near the source axis are examined and solutions are proposed. The set of equations permits a stable and accurate computation of the tabular potential everywhere in the medium.  相似文献