Making local futures tangible—Synthesizing, downscaling, and visualizing climate change scenarios for participatory capacity building   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alison Shaw  Stephen Sheppard  Sarah Burch  David Flanders  Arnim Wiek  Jeff Carmichael  John Robinson  Stewart Cohen 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(4):447-463

Local in its causes and global in its impacts, climate change still poses an unresolved challenge for scientists, politicians, entrepreneurs, and citizens. Climate change research is largely global in focus, aims at enhanced understanding, and is driven by experts, all of which seem to be insufficient to anchor climate change action in regional and local contexts. We present results from a participatory scenario study conducted in collaboration with the municipality of Delta in SW British Columbia, Canada. This study applies a participatory capacity building approach for climate change action at the local level where the sources of emissions and the mechanisms of adaptation reside and where climate change is meaningful to decision-makers and stakeholders alike. The multi-scale scenario approach consists of synthesizing global climate change scenarios, downscaling them to the regional and local level, and finally visualizing alternative climate scenarios out to 2100 in 3D views of familiar, local places. We critically discuss the scenarios produced and the strengths and weaknesses of the approach applied.  相似文献   

Religion and governmentality: Understanding governance in urban Brazil     

Jeff Garmany 《Geoforum》2010,41(6):908-918

In this paper I argue that geographies of religion are fundamental to understanding governance and social order in contemporary urban space. More specifically, I show how Foucault’s notion of governmentality characterizes regimes of power beyond the state apparatus, positing that religion and churches also produce and maintain the knowledges, truths, and social order associated with governmentality and self-regulated governance. By considering the geography of religion literature within the context of Foucualt’s work, I illustrate the importance of religious and spiritual practices to contemporary urban space, and the roles they play in producing and maintaining governance and socio-political order. My purpose is not to suggest that governmentality has been misapplied as a theoretical tool for understanding the state and political power, but to show how the term actually describes power more generally, including spiritual moments in addition to political ones. Drawing from my case study in Fortaleza, Brazil, I substantiate my theoretical argument using empirical examples, showing how governmentality is produced through religion and churches and the relationship between spiritual practices and governance in everyday space.  相似文献   

Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Eric A. Rosenberg  Patrick W. Keys  Derek B. Booth  David Hartley  Jeff Burkey  Anne C. Steinemann  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):319-349

The design of stormwater infrastructure is based on an underlying assumption that the probability distribution of precipitation extremes is statistically stationary. This assumption is called into question by climate change, resulting in uncertainty about the future performance of systems constructed under this paradigm. We therefore examined both historical precipitation records and simulations of future rainfall to evaluate past and prospective changes in the probability distributions of precipitation extremes across Washington State. Our historical analyses were based on hourly precipitation records for the time period 1949–2007 from weather stations in and near the state’s three major metropolitan areas: the Puget Sound region, Vancouver (WA), and Spokane. Changes in future precipitation were evaluated using two runs of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) for the time periods 1970–2000 and 2020–2050, dynamically downscaled from the ECHAM5 and CCSM3 global climate models. Bias-corrected and statistically downscaled hourly precipitation sequences were then used as input to the HSPF hydrologic model to simulate streamflow in two urban watersheds in central Puget Sound. Few statistically significant changes were observed in the historical records, with the possible exception of the Puget Sound region. Although RCM simulations generally predict increases in extreme rainfall magnitudes, the range of these projections is too large at present to provide a basis for engineering design, and can only be narrowed through consideration of a larger sample of simulated climate data. Nonetheless, the evidence suggests that drainage infrastructure designed using mid-20th century rainfall records may be subject to a future rainfall regime that differs from current design standards.  相似文献   

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models     

Bruce T. Anderson  Jeff R. Knight  Mark A. Ringer  Clara Deser  Adam S. Phillips  Jin-Ho Yoon  Annalisa Cherchi 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(7-8):1461-1475

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed.  相似文献   

Transport and dispersal of organic debris (peat blocks) in upland fluvial systems     

Martin Evans  Jeff Warburton 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(10):1087-1102

This paper assesses the mechanisms and pathways by which peat blocks are eroded and transported in upland fluvial systems. Observations and experiments from the north Pennines (UK) have been carried out on two contrasting river systems. Mapping of peat block distributions and appraisal of reach‐based sediment budgets clearly demonstrates that macro‐size peat is an important stream load component. In small streams block sizes can approximate the channel width and much of the peat is transported overbank. Local ‘peat jams’ and associated mineral deposition may provide an important component of channel storage. In larger systems peat blocks rapidly move down‐channel and undergo frequent exchanges between bed and bank storage. Results of peat block tracing using painted blocks indicate that once submerged, blocks of all sizes are easily transported and blocks break down rapidly by abrasion. Vegetation and bars play an important role in trapping mobile peat. In smaller streams large block transport is limited by channel jams. Smaller blocks are transported overbank but exhibit little evidence of downstream fining. In larger rivers peat blocks are more actively sorted and show downstream reduction in size from source. A simple model relating peat block diameter (D_p) to average flow depth (d) suggests three limiting transport conditions: flotation (D_p < d), rolling (d < D_p > d/2) and deposition (D_p > d/2). Experiments demonstrate that peat block transport occurs largely by rolling and floating and the transport mechanism is probably controlled by relative flow depth (d/D_p ratio). Transport velocity varies with transport mechanism (rolling is the slowest mode) and transport lengths increase as flow depth increases. Abrasion rates vary with the transport mechanism. Rolling produces greater abrasion rates and more rounded blocks. Abrasion rates vary from 0 to 10 g m^?1 for blocks ranging in mass from 10 to 6000 g. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Liver lesions in winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) from Jamaica Bay,New York: Indications of environmental degradation     

Thomas P. Augspurger  Roger L. Herman  John T. Tanacredi  Jeff S. Hatfield 《Estuaries and Coasts》1994,17(1):172-180

Liver sections of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) collected from Jamaica Bay and Shinnecock Bay, New York, in 1989, were examined microscopically to determine the pervasiveness of liver lesions observed previously in Jamaica Bay winter flounder. Neoplastic lesions were not detected in fish from Jamaica Bay or the Shinnecock Bay reference site. Twenty-two percent of Jamaica Bay winter flounder examined (n=103) had unusual vacuolization of hepatocytes and biliary pre-ductal and ductal cells (referred to hereafter as the vacuolated cell lesion). The lesion, identical to that found in 25% of Jamaica Bay winter flounder examined in 1988, has previously been identified in fishes taken from highly polluted regions of the Atlantic coast (e.g., Boston Harbor, Massachusetts, and Black Rock Harbor, Connecticut). Prevalence of the vacuolated cell lesion in winter flounder from Jamaica Bay was significantly greater (p<0.0001) than in 102 specimens collected from Shinnecock Bay. Current scientific literature indicates vacuolated hepatocytes and cholangiocytes are chronically injured and that the extent of their deformity is consistent with the action of a hepatotoxicant. The high prevalence of vacuolated hepatocytes in Jamaica Bay winter flounder and absence of the lesion in flounder from reference sites strongly supports the hypothesis that this impairment is a manifestation of a toxic condition in at least some portions of Jamaica Bay.  相似文献   

A lunar rock of deep crustal origin: sample 76535     

R Gooley  Robin Brett  Jeff Warner  J.R Smyth 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1974,38(9):1329-1339

Lunar sample 76535 is a coarse-grained troctolitic granulite exhibiting a texture indicative of long annealing times. It is composed of homogeneous crystals of plagioclase (58 per cent, An₉₆), olivine (37 per cent, Fo₈₈) and bronzite (4 per cent, En₈₆).Chromian spinel-bronzite-diopside (Wo₄₆En₅₀Fs₄) symplectic intergrowths commonly occur along olivine-plagioclase boundaries and as tiny inclusions within olivine grains. These symplectites apparently formed by a reaction of the type: . The reaction is related to the experimentally determined reaction of Kushiro and Yoder (1966). The enstatite content of the diopside coexisting with the bronzite indicates equilibration at about 1000°C. Thermodynamic calculations for 1000°C indicate that the symplectites formed at a minimum pressure of about 0.6 kb. Low alumina contents of the pyroxenes indicate equilibration near this minimum pressure.Clusters of the same assemblage found in the symplectic intergrowths, but containing accessory metal, troilite, Ca-phosphates, baddeleyite, plagioclase and/or K-feldspar occur sporadically throughout the rock. These apparent late stage products crystallized in the low temperature-high pressure region discussed above.Phase relations of co-existing metal phases indicate that the rock cooled at a few tens of degrees/my, corresponding to depths of 10–20 km below the lunar surface, in agreement with the above pressure estimate.We infer that 76535 represents an original cumulate deposited at a depth between about 10 and 30 km. The last liquid crystallized in the relatively high pressure-low temperature field opx + cpx + Al-Mg-chromite. Cooling was extremely slow and accompanied by extensive chemical and textural re-equilibration. Reaction to form the symplectites occurred during the late stages of re-equilibration.  相似文献   

Analyse isotopique de l'air piégé dans la glace pour quantifier les variations de température     

Amaelle Landais  Nicolas Caillon  Jeff Severinghaus  Jean-Marc Barnola  Céline Goujon  Jean Jouzel  Valérie Masson-Delmotte 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2004,336(11):963-970

Isotopic measurements in polar ice core have shown a succession of rapid warming periods during the last glacial period over Greenland. However, this method underestimates the surface temperature variations. A new method based on gas thermal diffusion in the firn manages to quantify surface temperature variations through associated isotopic fractionations. We developed a method to extract air from the ice and to perform isotopic measurements to reduce analytical uncertainties to 0.006 and 0.020$\text{‰}$ for δ¹⁵N and δ⁴⁰Ar. It led to a 16±1.5 °C surface temperature variation during a rapid warming ($\text{?70}\text{000}$ yr). To cite this article: A. Landais et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).  相似文献   

Population structure and reproductive characteristics of the gulf pipefish,Syngnathus scovelli, in Mobile Bay, Alabama     

Jeff Bolland  Anne Boettcher 《Estuaries and Coasts》2005,28(6):957-965

The gulf pipefish,Syngnathus scovelli, is the dominant syngnathid found in coastal regions of the Gulf of Mexico and is the only species in this region known to occur in both freshwater and saltwater habitats. Relatively little is known about the population and reproductive cycles ofS. scovelli, particularly for those found in low salinity environments. The focus of the current study was to collect population structure and reproductive data forS. scovelli from a low salinity habitat, Meaher Park, located at the mouth of Mobile Bay, Alabama. Sampling was conducted twice a month from January 2003 to January 2004. Environmental parameters, as well as population and reproductive parameters, were collected. Water temperature was the primary abiotic factor associated with both the appearance ofS. scovelli and their breeding cycle. Based on gonadosomatic (GSI) and brood pouch somatic indices (BPSI), females and males were reproductively active throughout the summer. Peaks in male GSI and BPSI were consistent with the subsequent appearance of a large number of juveniles in early fall. These event coincided with the higher temperatures seen during late summer and early fall. Sex ratios (male : female 1 : 1.64) and operational sex ratios (1 : 4.09) indicated that this was a female biased population. Although there was no difference in the average size of males and females in this population, the largest individuals collected were female. The female-biased sex ratio supports previous genetic analyses suggesting thatS. scovelli exhibits true sex-role reversal and that operational sex ratios are a reliable indicator of the intensity of mating competition and sex roles.  相似文献   

Real-time measurement of volcanic SO2 emissions: validation of a new UV correlation spectrometer (FLYSPEC)     

Keith A. Horton  Glyn Williams-Jones  Harold Garbeil  Tamar Elias  A. Jeff Sutton  Peter Mouginis-Mark  John N. Porter  Steven Clegg 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2006,68(4):323-327

A miniaturized, lightweight and low-cost UV correlation spectrometer, the FLYSPEC, has been developed as an alternative for the COSPEC, which has long been the mainstay for monitoring volcanic sulfur dioxide fluxes. Field experiments have been conducted with the FLYSPEC at diverse volcanic systems, including Masaya (Nicaragua), Poás (Costa Rica), Stromboli, Etna and Vulcano (Italy), Villarica (Chile) and Kilauea (USA). We present here those validation measurements that were made simultaneously with COSPEC at Kilauea between March 2002 and February 2003. These experiments, with source emission rates that ranged from 95 to 1,560 t d⁻¹, showed statistically identical results from both instruments. SO₂ path-concentrations ranged from 0 to >1,000 ppm-m with average correlation coefficients greater than r ²=0.946. The small size and low cost create the opportunity for FLYSPEC to be used in novel deployment modes that have the potential to revolutionize the manner in which volcanic and industrial monitoring is performed.  相似文献