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41.
We compile a sample of Sun-like stars with accurate effective temperatures, metallicities and colours (from the ultraviolet to the near-infrared). A crucial improvement is that the effective temperature scale of the stars has recently been established as both accurate and precise through direct measurement of angular diameters obtained with stellar interferometers. We fit the colours as a function of effective temperature and metallicity, and derive colour estimates for the Sun in the Johnson–Cousins, Tycho, Strömgren, 2MASS and SDSS photometric systems. For  ( B − V )  , we favour the 'red' colour 0.64 versus the 'blue' colour 0.62 of other recent papers, but both values are consistent within the errors; we ascribe the difference to the selection of Sun-like stars versus interpolation of wider colour– T eff–metallicity relations.  相似文献   
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We reconstruct the Holocene shore displacement of the Västervik-Gamlebyviken area on the southeast coast of Sweden, characterised by a maritime cultural landscape and archaeological significance since the Mesolithic. Sediment cores were retrieved from four lake basins that have been raised above sea level due to the postglacial land uplift and eustatic sea level changes after the melting of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. The cores were radiocarbon dated and analysed for loss on ignition and diatoms. The isolation thresholds of the basins were determined using LiDAR data. The results provide evidence for the initiation of the first Littorina Sea transgression in this area at 8.5 thousand calibrated years before present (cal. ka BP). A relative sea level rise by ∼7 m a.s.l. is recorded between 8.0 and 7.5 cal. ka BP with a highstand at ∼22 m a.s.l. between 7.5 and 6.2 cal. ka BP. These phases coincide with the second and third Littorina Sea transgressions, respectively, in the Blekinge area, southern Sweden and are consistent with the final deglaciation of North America. After 6.2 cal. ka BP, the relative sea level dropped below 22 m a.s.l., and remained at ∼20 m a.s.l. until 4.6 cal. ka BP coinciding with the fourth Littorina Sea transgression in Blekinge. From 4.6 to 4.2 cal. ka BP, the shore displacement shows a regression rate of 10 mm a−1 followed by a slowdown with a mean value of 4.6 mm a−1 until 1.6 cal. ka BP, when the relative sea level dropped below 3.3 m a.s.l. The Middle to Late Holocene highstand and other periods of minor sea level transgressions and/or higher salinity between 6.2 and 1.7 cal. ka BP are attributed to a combination of warmer climate and higher inflow of saline waters in the southern Baltic Sea due to stronger westerlies, caused by variations in the North Atlantic atmospheric patterns.  相似文献   
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We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1°C/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4°C/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5°C/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1°C/+4.6% for RCP8.5, respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3°C between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.  相似文献   
45.
The conformal-cubic atmospheric model, a variable-resolution global model, is applied at high spatial resolution to perform simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa and over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The model is forced with the bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice of six coupled global climate models that contributed to Assessment Report 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All six simulations are for the period 1961–2100, under the A2 emission scenario. Projections for the latter part of the 21st century indicate a decrease in the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Africa, as well as a northward shift in the preferred landfall position of these systems over the southern African subcontinent. A concurrent increase in January to March rainfall is projected for northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania, with decreases projected further south over semi-arid areas such as the Limpopo River Basin where these systems make an important contribution as main cause of widespread heavy rainfall. It is shown that the projected changes in tropical cyclone attributes and regional rainfall occur in relation to changes in larger scale atmospheric temperature, pressure and wind profiles of the southern African region and adjacent oceans.  相似文献   
46.
Urban green commons: Insights on urban common property systems   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The aim of this paper is to shed new light on urban common property systems. We deal with urban commons in relation to urban green-space management, referring to them as urban green commons. Applying a property-rights analytic perspective, we synthesize information on urban green commons from three case-study regions in Sweden, Germany, and South Africa, and elaborate on their role for biodiversity conservation in urban settings, with a focus on business sites. Cases cover both formally established types of urban green commons and bottom-up emerged community-managed habitats. As our review demonstrates, the right to actively manage urban green space is a key characteristic of urban green commons whether ownership to land is in the private, public, the club realm domain, or constitutes a hybrid of these. We discuss the important linkages among urban common property systems, social–ecological learning, and management of ecosystem services and biodiversity. Several benefits can be associated with urban green commons, such as a reduction of costs for ecosystem management and as designs for reconnecting city-inhabitants to the biosphere. The emergence of urban green commons appears closely linked to dealing with societal crises and for reorganizing cities; hence, they play a key role in transforming cities toward more socially and ecologically benign environments. While a range of political questions circumscribe the feasibility of urban green commons, we discuss their usefulness in management of different types of urban habitats, their political justification and limitation, their potential for improved biodiversity conservation, and conditions for their emergence. We conclude by postulating some general policy advice.  相似文献   
47.
The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea mean salinity to climatic changes of the freshwater supply is analyzed. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is about 6‰. The low salinity is an effect of a large net freshwater supply and narrow and shallow connections with the North Sea. As a result of mixing in the entrance area, a large portion of the outflowing Baltic Sea water returns with the inflowing salty water and thus lowers the salinity of the Baltic Sea deep-water considerably. This recycling of the Baltic Sea water is a key process determining the salinity of today's Baltic Sea. The sensitivity of this recycling, and thus of the Baltic Sea salinity, to climatic changes in the freshwater supply is analyzed. A simple model is formulated for the variations of the Baltic Sea freshwater content. Historical data of the freshwater supply and the salinity in the Baltic Sea are used in the model to achieve an empirical expression relating variations of the recycling of Baltic Sea water to the variations of the freshwater supply. The recycling is found to be very sensitive to the freshwater supply. We find that an increase of freshwater supply of 30% is the level above which the Baltic Sea would turn into a lake. Recent climate modeling results suggest that river runoff to the Baltic Sea may increase dramatically in the future and thus possibly put the Baltic Sea into a new state.  相似文献   
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This paper presents a new, novel, particle-based Bluff Morphology Model (BMM), and with it investigates the stability, collapse, and equilibrium position of soft coastal bluffs (cliffs). This model combines a multiple wedge displacement method with an adapted Weakly Compressible Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (WCSPH) method. At first, the wedge method is applied to compute the stability of the bluff. Once the critical failure mechanism of the bluff slope has been identified, and if the factor of safety for the mechanism is less than 1, the adapted WCSPH method is used to predict the failure movement and residual shape of the slope. The model is validated against benchmark test cases of bluff stability for purely frictional, purely cohesive, and mixed strength bluff materials including 2D static water tables. The model predictions give a good correlation with the expected values, with medium resolution models producing errors of typically less than 2.0%. In addition, the prediction of lateral movement of a surveyed cliff and the dynamic collapse of a vertical bluff are computed, and compare well with published literature.  相似文献   
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