影响陕西汛期降水空间分布的强信号   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

肖科丽  赵国令  方建刚  范建勋  刘瑞芳 《气象科技》2008,36(4):400-403

为了寻找影响陕西省汛期降水空间分布的前期强信号,应用陕西省1959～2003年36个气象代表站汛期(6～9月)降水量标准化资料,进行经验正交EOF分解.根据特征向量分布,确定陕西汛期降水典型分布场为"全省一致"型、"南北振荡"型和由北向南的"两头多(少)、中间少(多)"型.通过分析关键区的海温异常和大气环流变化等因子与EOF分解前3个时间系数的相关性,得到了汛期降水预测的一些重要前期强信号,如西风漂流区海温,Nion 3区海温、北太平洋涛动、东亚冬季风等,对陕西汛期降水分布预测具有明显的预示作用.  相似文献   

A comprehensive framework for studying diffusion patterns of imported dengue with individual-based movement data     

Haiyan Tao  Keli Wang  Xuliang Li  Qiuping Li  Yuan Liu 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(3):604-624

ABSTRACT

International communication and global cooperation have greatly accelerated the worldwide spread of dengue fever, increasing the impact of imported cases on dengue outbreaks in non-naturally endemic areas. Existing studies mostly focus on describing the quantitative relationship between imported cases and local transmission but ignore the space-time diffusion mode of imported cases under the influence of individual mobility. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive framework at a fine scale to establish the disease transmission network and a mathematical model, which constructs ‘source-sink’ links between the imported and indigenous cases on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 1 km to explore the diffusion pattern and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of imported cases. An application to Guangzhou, China, reveals the main flow and transmission path of imported cases under the influence of human movement and identifies the spatiotemporal distribution of transmission speed according to the time lag of each source-sink link. In addition, we demonstrate that using individual-based movement data and socio-economic factors to study human mobility and imported cases can help to understand the driving forces of dengue spread. Our research provides a comprehensive framework for the analysis of early dengue transmission patterns with benefits to similar urban applications.  相似文献   

Review of River Bank Erosion Research   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dai Hailun  Dai Jiabing  Shu Anping  Zhang Keli 《地球科学进展》2013,28(9):988-996

Riverbank erosion is a critical style of lateral channel change. It threatens the arable land, ecological environment, as well as the people’s lives and properties along the river. Through review on the research process of riverbank erosion globally, four aspects were classified and described: ①Riverbank erosion processes and mechanisms. The occurence and development of riverbank erosion is quite complicated, composed by multiple processes, which are hard to separate with each other. Therefore, the scholars have proposed a lot of theories to describe the processes. Among the theories, “Riverbank Stability Theory” has been widely recognized and developed. ②Factors of riverbank erosion. The key factors that affect riverbank erosion include hydrology conditions of the river, soil properties, geomorphology, vegetation of the river bank and meteorology. However, it should be noted that the importance of different factors in the collapse process is not equivalent and effects of the same factor on different rivers are various. ③Riverbank erosion estimation. With the tremendous improvement of quantification recently, time interval of erosion measurement is shortening continuously, while spatial scale is larger and larger. At the same time, resolution is becoming increasingly high. Erosion pin was commonly used in early studies because of its easy use and low cost, whereas remote sensing and digital photogrammetry have more advantages in modern measurement. ④Modeling of riverbank erosion. At present, the models are mainly based on the fundamental theories of hydraulics and soil mechanics, to study river bank stability. According to the review of the four aspects above, problems of recent researches and prospects of possible development in the future were discussed. The researchers should pay much attention to temporal spatial distribution of riverbank erosion first before further research. The study would be greatly helpful to the researchers for the specific river reach when choosing the proper theories as well as technologies for measurement and quantification, study the riverbank erosion through both macroscopic and microscopic views, and predict the erosion for management purpose.  相似文献   

A modeling approach for assessing the effect of multiple alpine lakes in sequence on nutrient transport   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Dave M. Epstein  Bethany T. Neilson  Keli J. Goodman  David K. Stevens  Wayne A. Wurtsbaugh 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2013,75(2):199-212

The effects of a single lake on downstream water chemistry may be compounded by the presence of additional lakes within the watershed, augmenting or negating the effects of the first lake. Multiple, linked lakes are a common feature of many watersheds and these resemble reactors in series often studied in engineering. The effects of multiple lakes in series on nutrient transport are largely unexplored. We populated and calibrated a simple lake model to investigate the role of a sub-alpine lake (Bull Trout Lake (BTL), Rocky Mountains, USA) on the transport of the macronutrients during the summer of 2008. Further, we developed a sequential model in which four identical lakes (copies of the BTL model) were connected in series. All lakes in the sequence retarded the flux of nutrients, thus slowing their transport downstream. The first lake in the sequence dramatically altered stream water chemistry and served as a sink for C and P and a source of N, while additional lakes downstream became sources of C, N and P. Although additional downstream lakes resulted in important changes to water chemistry and nutrient transport, the nature of the changes were similar from Lakes 2 to 4 and the magnitude of the changes diminished with distance downstream. Our lake model served as an effective tool for assessing the nutrient budget of the lake and the hypothetical effect of multiple lakes in sequence in a landscape limnology framework.  相似文献   

乌海市灰霾天气的气候特征分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

孙红斌  王晓丽  刘克利  袁梅 《内蒙古气象》2011,(4):15-16,59

利用乌海市1971—2009年每天4个时次（或3个时次）的常规地面观测资料和2004—2009年的空气质量状况（PM10、SO2、NO2浓度值）,统计分析了乌海市灰霾的分布特征和规律以及出现灰霾时的相对湿度、平均水平能见度、2分钟平均风速、风向特征和空气质量状况。得到：（1）乌海市1971—2009年共出现165次灰霾天气,2004年以后出现了161次,最多出现在2007年和2009年;春季出现次数最多,冬季最少;4月出现最多,1月和2月出现最少;82.4%的灰霾天气出现在08时。（2）当出现灰霾时,相对湿度在60%以下占71%,相对湿度在70%以上时绝大部分是与雾同时出现;灰霾天气出现最多风向是偏南风,最多风速是≤3.0 m.s-1。（3）2004—2006年出现灰霾时92%的空气质量出现了三级轻微或轻度污染,2007年以后出现灰霾时,在冬半年空气质量绝大部分为三级轻微或轻度污染,而在夏半年大部分空气质量为良。  相似文献   

沙尘天气器测资料与常规观测资料的对比分析     

云静波  王文  孙永刚  刘克利  Liu Keli 《内蒙古气象》2011,(1):7-9,48

利用2004—2007年内蒙古地区10次较强沙尘暴天气过程的常规观测资料和6个沙尘暴监测站的器测能见度、PM10等沙尘暴监测资料,针对仪器定量监测资料与常规观测资料的相关性及差异进行了分析。分析结果显示:器测能见度与能见度的变化趋势一致,相关性较好,大气能见度小时,两者数值接近,当大气能见度增大时,两者差异明显增大;器测能见度与PM10有很好的曲线拟合关系,较能见度与PM10的相关性要好,说明定量的器测能见度较能见度更具有连续性、稳定性,但器测能见度存在系统性的偏差,为了业务应用方便,文章给出了器测能见度的修正方案。  相似文献   

陕西汛期降水年际增量预测新技术研究   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

肖科丽  赵国令  方建刚  王娜 《气象》2015,41(3):328-335

应用年际增量预测方法,通过分析影响陕西汛期降水的物理机制,建立了具有较高预测效能的陕西汛期降水年际增量预测模型。研究表明,赤道太平洋中东部海温年际增量、500 hPa高度年际增量与陕西汛期降水具有很好的相关性。当前一年秋、冬季赤道太平洋中东部海温增量在南北方向上表现为“－＋－”分布型时,陕西当年汛期降水偏多,反之,陕西当年汛期降水偏少。当前一年秋、冬季500 hPa高度年际增量在赤道附近呈带状正值分布时,陕西当年汛期降水偏多;呈带状负值分布时,陕西当年汛期降水偏少。国家气候中心提供的74项环流特征量、陕西省0 cm地温增量因子与陕西汛期降水也有很好的相关关系。在对预测因子物理意义分析的基础上,用逐步回归方法引入因子,建立陕西10个气候区域的汛期（6—8月）降水总量和各分月（6、7、8月）的降水年际增量预测模型（共40个）,汛期降水总量预测模型交叉检验距平同号率达78.4%。对2010—2013年汛期降水总量和各分月降水量进行试报,其准确率PS评分分别达到75.8和66分。增量预测方法具有较强的预测能力,能够在一定程度上提高陕西汛期降水预测水平,可作为有效方法投入实际业务应用。  相似文献   

卫星遥感与咸阳“城市热岛”特征分析     

徐军昶  王勇 《山西气象》2006,(2):34-36

随着气象事业的发展,大众对气象节目的日益关注,气象科普节目已越来越受到人们的欢迎。本文通过具体的事例,阐述了气象科普节目的创作思路,将气象知识与电视创作有机地结合起来。  相似文献   

Erosion response to anthropogenic activity and climatic changes during the Holocene: case studies in northwestern China and southern Norway     

He Xiubin  Tang Keli  John A. Matthews  Geraint Owen 《地理学报(英文版)》2002,12(4):467-471

Soil erosion assessment and prediction play critical roles in addressing problems associated with erosion control or soil conservation. The past dynamics of soil erosion can provide valuable information for us to understand the relations of soil erosion to environmental change and anthropogenic activity. The present paper has compared Holocene climatic changes in northwestern China with those in southern Norway, and investigated the past dynamics of erosion activity during the Holocene. Modern soil erosion on the Loess Plateau is a combination of the intensive natural erosion and human-induced erosion, the latter being four times greater than the former. Because of global warming and increasing human activities, climate on the Loess Plateau is becoming dryer and more unstable, causing an enhanced erosion problem and water scarcity. In the arctic-alpine region of southern Norway, however, the global warming and regional wetting caused expansion of the largest European ice cap. This has accentuated the erosion in that region, with a higher frequency of avalanches and debris flows.  相似文献   

大气层结对冷锋环流的影响     

钱滔滔  吕克利 《气象学报》1997,55(1):77-85

利用原始方程模式讨论了不同大气层结对冷锋环流的影响及其在激发锋区中尺度强对流系统中的作用，结果表明：层结对锋区环流有非常大的影响，随层结稳定度的减小，锋区非地转越锋环流和上升运动迅速增强，锋前暖区有可能产生中尺度强对流和多重中尺度上升运动带，并有利于对称不稳定的激发；层结对冷锋环流的影响和锋区中尺度强对流系统形成的作用主要由中低层的大气层结状态决定  相似文献