Ground-motion predictions in Shillong region, northeast India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sankar Kumar Nath  Kiran Kumar Singh Thingbaijam  Soumya Kanti Maiti  Avinash Nayak 《Journal of Seismology》2012,16(3):475-488

We deliver ground-motion prediction equations for Shillong region, northeast India, based on a database generated by finite-fault stochastic simulations. An examination of the regional seismic source characteristics is carried out beforehand. Micro/minor earthquakes (M _W?<?5.0) nucleating at hypocentral depth <21?km in the region recorded at broadband seismic stations are observed to have Brune stress-drop ranging between 2.8 and 99.9?bars. Likewise, macroseismic intensity data for the 1897 Shillong Earthquake that nucleated at a hypocentral depth of ~35?km places the associated stress-drop at 100?200?bars. The apparent variation of the stress-drop parameter with depth is considered with two source zones namely lower-crust and upper-crust. Equations for the lower-crust predict higher ground-motion levels and exhibit affinity to those developed for stable continental region of Eastern North America. The ground-motion levels predicted by the equations for the upper-crust are relatively lower but are still higher compared with those predicted for tectonically active regions, viz., the Himalayas and Western North America.  相似文献   

A Study on Simulation of Heavy Rainfall Events Over Indian Region with ARW-3DVAR Modeling System     

U. C. Mohanty  A. Routray  Krishna K. Osuri  S. Kiran Prasad 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(3):381-399

An attempt is made to evaluate the impact of the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation within the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) modeling system to simulate two heavy rainfall events which occured on 26–27 July 2005 and 27–30 July 2006. During the 26–27 July 2005 event, the unprecedented localized intense rainfall 90–100 cm was recorded over the northeast parts of Mumbai city; however, southern parts received only 10 cm. Model simulation with the data assimilation experiment is reasonably well predicted for the rainfall intensity (800 mm) in 24 h and with accurate location over Mumbai agreeing with observation. Divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture parameters are evaluated during the various stages of the event. It is noticed that maximum convergence and vorticity during the mature stage; at the same time the vertical velocity also follows a similar trend during the period in the assimilation experiment. Vorticity budget terms over the location of heavy rainfall revealed that the contribution of the positive tilting term produced positive vorticity which triggered the convection and negative contribution to vorticity from the tilting term to precede the dissipation of the system. Model simulations from the second rain event, the off-shore trough at sea level along the west coast of India, is well represented after assimilation of observations during day-1 and day-2 as compared to the control simulations; the orientation of the off-shore trough is well matched with that of the observed. The intensity and spatial distribution of the rainfall has considerably improved in the assimilation simulation. The statistical skill scores also revealed that the precipitation forecast during the period has appreciably improved due to assimilation of observations. The results of this study indicate a positive impact of the 3DVAR assimilation on the simulation of heavy rainfall events.  相似文献   

On the variability timescales and magnetic field in OJ 287     

Kiran S. Baliyan  U. C. Joshi  M. R. Deshpande 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,240(2):195-204

The continuum spectrum of OJ 287, like most other BL Lac objects, is featureless- no emission or absorption lines are observed. However, OJ 287 shows variations at different timescales in flux and polarization at various wavelength bands. Using the available variability data one can estimate the sizes of the emission regions in the source from light travel time arguments. We assume the emission mechanism to be synchrotron radiation by high energy electrons with single power law energy distribution. Theoretical synchrotron spectrum in the frequency range 10¹¹–10¹⁷ H _z is compared with the observed spectral shape, obtained from new multifrequency quasi-simultaneous observations, to estimate the lower and upper cut off frequencies. These frequencies are used to obtain theoretical values of the variability timescales and magnetic field in the emission region. We obtain a value of 0.93 G for the magnetic field and 5.184×10⁴ sec for the cooling time from the quiescent continuum spectrum. The shock-in-jet model explains the spectrum where shocks accelerate the particles and amplify the magnetic field in the jet. This timescale is compared with the one obtained from observed short timescale variability (20 minutes) with proper beaming correction. The short timescale variations (200 minutes in the source frame), possibly caused by an additional, flaring, component of the source, are also used to calculate compressed magnetic field. The observed and theoretically estimated variability timescales and the shape of the spectrum suggest that there are more than one emission components in OJ 287.  相似文献   

Stability of breakwater defenced by a seaward submerged reef     

Kiran G. Shirlal  Subba Rao  Venkata Ganesh  Manu 《Ocean Engineering》2006,33(5-6):829-846

The stability of a uniformly sloped conventional rubble mound breakwater defenced by a seaward submerged reef is investigated using physical model studies. Regular waves of wide ranging heights and periods are used. Tests are carried out for different spacings between two rubble mound structures (X/d=2.5–13.33) and for different relative heights (h/d=0.625–0.833) and relative widths (B/d=0.25–1.33) of the reef. It is observed that a reef of width (B/d) of 0.6–0.75 constructed at a seaward distance (X/d) of 6.25–8.33 breaks all the incoming waves and dissipates energy and protects the breakwater optimally.  相似文献   

Earthquake hazard in Northeast India — A seismic microzonation approach with typical case studies from Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city     

Sankar Kumar Nath  Kiran Kumar Singh Thingbaijam  Abhishek Raj 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(2):809-831

A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds — a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of M _W 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes — geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications — ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain.  相似文献   

Indian monsoon variability during the last 46 kyr: isotopic records of planktic foraminifera from southwestern Bay of Bengal     

P. K. Gautam  A. C. Narayana  P. Kiran Kumar  P. G. Bhavani  M. G. Yadava  A. J. T. Jull 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(1):138-151

The Indian monsoon carries large amounts of freshwater to the northern Indian Ocean and modulates the upper ocean structure in terms of upwelling and productivity. Freshwater-induced stratification in the upper ocean of the Bay of Bengal is linked to the changes in the Indian monsoon. In this study, we test the usefulness of δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C variability records for Globigerina bulloides and Orbulina universa to infer Indian monsoon variability from a sediment core retrieved from the southwestern Bay of Bengal encompassing the last 46 kyr record. Results show that the northeast monsoon was dominant during the Last Glacial Maximum. Remarkable signatures are observed in the δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 to MIS-1. Our study suggests that Indian monsoon variability is controlled by a complex of factors such as solar insolation, North Atlantic climatic shifts, and coupled ocean–atmospheric variability during the last 46 kyr.  相似文献   

Role of vertical structure of cloud microphysical properties on cloud radiative forcing over the Asian monsoon region     

V. Ravi Kiran  M. Rajeevan  H. Gadhavi  S. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao  A. Jayaraman 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(11-12):3331-3345

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Recent seismicity in Northeast India and its adjoining region     

Kiran Kumar Singh Thingbaijam  Sankar Kumar Nath  Abhimanyu Yadav  Abhishek Raj  M. Yanger Walling  William Kumar Mohanty 《Journal of Seismology》2008,12(1):107-123

Recent seismicity in the northeast India and its adjoining region exhibits different earthquake mechanisms – predominantly thrust faulting on the eastern boundary, normal faulting in the upper Himalaya, and strike slip in the remaining areas. A homogenized catalogue in moment magnitude, M _W, covering a period from 1906 to 2006 is derived from International Seismological Center (ISC) catalogue, and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) database. Owing to significant and stable earthquake recordings as seen from 1964 onwards, the seismicity in the region is analyzed for the period with spatial distribution of magnitude of completeness m _t, b value, a value, and correlation fractal dimension D _C. The estimated value of m _t is found to vary between 4.0 and 4.8. The a value is seen to vary from 4.47 to 8.59 while b value ranges from 0.61 to 1.36. Thrust zones are seen to exhibit predominantly lower b value distribution while strike-slip and normal faulting regimes are associated with moderate to higher b value distribution. D _C is found to vary from 0.70 to 1.66. Although the correlation between spatial distribution of b value and D _C is seen predominantly negative, positive correlations can also be observed in some parts of this territory. A major observation is the strikingly negative correlation with low b value in the eastern boundary thrust region implying a possible case of extending asperity. Incidentally, application of box counting method on fault segments of the study region indicates comparatively higher fractal dimension, D, suggesting an inclination towards a planar geometrical coverage in the 2D spatial extent. Finally, four broad seismic source zones are demarcated based on the estimated spatial seismicity patterns in collaboration with the underlying active fault networks. The present work appraises the seismicity scenario in fulfillment of a basic groundwork for seismic hazard assessment in this earthquake province of the country.  相似文献   

Place-making and environmental change in a Hindu pilgrimage site in India     

Kiran A. Shinde 《Geoforum》2012,43(1):116-127

Many Hindu pilgrimage sites in India experience heavy influxes of pilgrims and are subject to considerable environmental impact. Existing literature on the study of the environment in pilgrimage sites, however, appears to follow two divergent directions: one emphasizes degradation of the physical environment while the other highlights the sacred character of the place and how that is compromised by contemporary visitor flows. The aim of this paper is to move beyond this divergence and to demonstrate how contemporary environmental problems are outcomes related to a historical process of environmental change that accompanies the making of a sacred place. This paper is based on a case study of Vrindavan, a Hindu pilgrimage site associated with Krishna worship in northern India. More than 6 million visitors visit Vrindavan annually. Using a historical geography approach and socio-spatial dialectic conceptual framework, the paper explains how this pilgrimage landscape was established in the 15th century, and how since then it has evolved into a religious-urban place comprising more than 5500 temples. Its development is categorized into three periods: pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial. In each period, the socio-spatial fabric showed significant transformations that resulted from the interaction of three critical factors: the influence of local and global socio-economic processes on the cultural economy of pilgrimage, the relationship of this economy to spatial change, and institutional controls that regulated the other two factors. It is argued that the environment of pilgrimage is simultaneously social, economic, cultural and religious and shaped by the need to maintain the place as sacred. This insight is useful for a better understanding of contemporary environmental problems so that they may be addressed effectively.  相似文献   

Simulation of tornado over Orissa (India) on March 31, 2009, using WRF–NMM model     

A. J. Litta  U. C. Mohanty  S. Kiran Prasad  M. Mohapatra  Ajit Tyagi  S. C. Sahu 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(3):1219-1242

A severe thunderstorm produced a tornado (F3 on the Fujita-Pearson scale), which affected Rajkanika block of Kendrapara district of Orissa in the afternoon of March 31, 2009. The devastation caused by the tornado consumed 15 lives and left several injured with huge loss of property. The meteorological conditions that led to this tornado have been analyzed. An attempt is also made to simulate this rare event using Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system with a spatial resolution of 4 km for a period of 24 h, starting at 0000 UTC of March 31, 2009. The atmospheric settings resulted from synoptic, surface, upper air, satellite and radar echo studies were favorable for the occurrence of a severe thunderstorm activity over Rajkanika. The model-simulated meteorological parameters are consistent with each other, and all are in good agreement with the observation in terms of the region of occurrence of the intense convective activity. The model has well captured the vertical motion. The core of the strongest winds is shown to be very close to the site of actual occurrence of the event. The wind speed is not in good agreement with the observation as it has shown the strongest wind of only 20 ms⁻¹, against the estimated wind speed of 70 ms⁻¹. The spatial distributions as well as intensity of rainfall rates are in good agreement with the observation as model simulated 35.4 mm against the observed rainfall of 41 mm over Chandbali. The results of these analyses demonstrated the capability of high-resolution WRF–NMM model in simulation of severe thunderstorm events.  相似文献