Climate model simulation of anthropogenic influence on greenhouse-induced climate change (early agriculture to modern): the role of ocean feedbacks     

John E. Kutzbach  W. F. Ruddiman  S. J. Vavrus  G. Philippon 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):351-381

We present further steps in our analysis of the early anthropogenic hypothesis (Ruddiman, Clim Change 61:261–293, 2003) that increased levels of greenhouse gases in the current interglacial, compared to lower levels in previous interglacials, were initiated by early agricultural activities, and that these increases caused a warming of climate long before the industrial era (～1750). These steps include updating observations of greenhouse gas and climate trends from earlier interglacials, reviewing recent estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from early agriculture, and describing a simulation by a climate model with a dynamic ocean forced by the low levels of greenhouse gases typical of previous interglacials in order to gauge the magnitude of the climate change for an inferred (natural) low greenhouse gas level relative to a high present day level. We conduct two time slice (equilibrium) simulations using present day orbital forcing and two levels of greenhouse gas forcing: the estimated low (natural) levels of previous interglacials, and the high levels of the present (control). By comparing the former to the latter, we estimate how much colder the climate would be without the combined greenhouse gas forcing of the early agriculture era (inferred from differences between this interglacial and previous interglacials) and the industrial era (the period since ～1750). With the low greenhouse gas levels, the global average surface temperature is 2.7 K lower than present day—ranging from ～2 K lower in the tropics to 4–8 K lower in polar regions. These changes are large, and larger than those reported in a pre-industrial (～1750) simulation with this model, because the imposed low greenhouse gas levels (CH₄ = 450 ppb, CO₂ = 240 ppm) are lower than both pre-industrial (CH₄ = 760 ppb, CO₂ = 280 ppm) and modern control (CH₄ = 1,714 ppb, CO₂ = 355 ppm) values. The area of year-round snowcover is larger, as found in our previous simulations and some other modeling studies, indicating that a state of incipient glaciation would exist given the current configuration of earth’s orbit (reduced insolation in northern hemisphere summer) and the imposed low levels of greenhouse gases. We include comparisons of these snowcover maps with known locations of earlier glacial inception and with locations of twentieth century glaciers and ice caps. In two earlier studies, we used climate models consisting of atmosphere, land surface, and a shallow mixed-layer ocean (Ruddiman et al., Quat Sci Rev 25:1–10, 2005; Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008). Here, we replaced the mixed-layer ocean with a complete dynamic ocean. While the simulated climate of the atmosphere and the surface with this improved model configuration is similar to our earlier results (Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008), the added information from the full dynamical ocean is of particular interest. The global and vertically-averaged ocean temperature is 1.25 K lower, the area of sea ice is larger, and there is less upwelling in the Southern Ocean. From these results, we infer that natural ocean feedbacks could have amplified the greenhouse gas changes initiated by early agriculture and possibly account for an additional increment of CO₂ increase beyond that attributed directly to early agricultural, as proposed by Ruddiman (Rev Geophys 45:RG4001, 2007). However, a full test of the early anthropogenic hypothesis will require additional observations and simulations with models that include ocean and land carbon cycles and other refinements elaborated herein.  相似文献   

Diversity-accuracy assessment of multiple classifier systems for the land cover classification of the Khumbu region in the Himalayas     

Charisse Camacho HANSON  Lars BRABYN  Sher Bahadur GURUNG 《山地科学学报》2022,(2):365-387

Land cover classification of mountainous environments continues to be a challenging remote sensing problem,owing to landscape complexities exhibited by the regi...  相似文献   

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China          下载免费PDF全文

Kun‐xia Yu  Lars Gottschalk  Xiang Zhang  Peng Li  Zhanbin Li  Lihua Xiong  Qian Sun 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1844-1857

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.  相似文献   

Glacial and environmental changes over the last 60 000 years in the Polar Ural Mountains,Arctic Russia,inferred from a high‐resolution lake record and other observations from adjacent areas     

John Inge Svendsen  Lars Martin B. Frseth  Richard Gyllencreutz  Haflidi Haflidason  Mona Henriksen  Morten N. Hovland   ystein S. Lohne  Jan Mangerud  Dmitry Nazarov  Carl Regnll  Joerg M. Schaefer 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2019,48(2):407-431

Our knowledge about the glaciation history in the Russian Arctic has to a large extent been based on geomorphological mapping supplemented by studies of short stratigraphical sequences found in exposed sections. Here we present new geochronological data from the Polar Ural Mountains along with a high‐resolution sediment record from Bolshoye Shchuchye, the largest and deepest lake in the mountain range. Seismic profiles show that the lake contains a 160‐m‐thick sequence of unconsolidated lacustrine sediments. A well‐dated 24‐m‐long core from the southern end of the lake spans the last 24 cal. ka. From downward extrapolation of sedimentation rates we estimate that sedimentation started about 50–60 ka ago, most likely just after a large glacier had eroded older sediments from the basin. Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) exposure dating (¹⁰Be) of boulders and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating of sediments indicate that this part of the Ural Mountains was last covered by a coherent ice‐field complex during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4. A regrowth of the glaciers took place during a late stage of MIS 3, but the central valleys remained ice free until the present. The presence of small‐ and medium‐sized glaciers during MIS 2 is reflected by a sequence of glacial varves and a high sedimentation rate in the lake basin and likewise from ¹⁰Be dating of glacial boulders. The maximum extent of the mountain glaciers during MIS 2 was attained prior to 24 cal. ka BP. Some small present‐day glaciers, which are now disappearing completely due to climate warming, were only slightly larger during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as compared to AD 1953. A marked decrease in sedimentation rate around 18–17 cal. ka BP indicates that the glaciers then became smaller and probably disappeared altogether around 15–14 cal. ka BP.  相似文献   

Triangulation adjustment and laplace conditions by projecting the ellipsoid on the plane     

Lars Asplund 《Journal of Geodesy》1949,23(1):53-57

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Gravitational potential changes of a spherically symmetric earth model caused by a surface load     

Wenke Sun  & Lars E. Sjöberg 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,137(2):449-468

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Geoscientific R&D for high level radioactive waste disposal in Sweden — current status and future plans     

Lars O. Ericsson   《Engineering Geology》1999,52(3-4):305-317

SKB (Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB) is responsible for all handling, transport and storage of the nuclear wastes outside the Swedish nuclear power stations. According to Swedish law, SKB is responsible for an R&D-programme needed to take care of the radwastes. The programme comprises, among others, a general supportive geo-scientific R&D and the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) for more in-situ specific tasks.

Sweden is geologically located in the Fennoscandian shield which is dominated by gneisses and granitoids of Precambrian age. The Swedish reference repository concept thus considers an excavated vault at ca. 500 m depth in crystalline rocks. In this concept (KBS-3), copper canisters with high level waste will be emplaced in deposition holes from a system of tunnels. Blocks of highly compacted swelling bentonite clay are placed in the holes leaving ample space for the canisters. At the final closure of the repository, the galleries are backfilled with a mixture of sand and bentonite. This repository design aims to make the disposal system as redundant as possible. Although the KBS-3 concept is the reference concept, alternative concepts and/or repository lay-outs are also studied. The main alternative, currently under development at SKB, is disposal in boreholes with depths of 4–5 km. The geoscientific research will to a great extent be guided by the demands posed by the performance and safety assessments, as well as the constuctability issues. Some main functions of the geological barrier are fundamental for the long-term safety of a repository. These are: bedrock mechanical stability, a chemically stable environment as well as a slow and stable groundwater flux. The main time-table for the final disposal of long-lived radioactive waste in Sweden foresees the final selection of the disposal system and site during the beginning of next decade.  相似文献   

On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta     

Xiaoli Guo Larsén  Jianting Du  Rodolfo Bolaños  Søren Larsen 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(11):1407-1427

The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H _s ) for open sea. It was also demonstrated that the impact of the open cells has negligible contribution to the development of extreme H _s observed at FINO 1. At the same time, stability alone is not sufficient in explaining the development of extreme H _s . The controlling conditions for the development of Britta extreme H _s observed at FINO 1 are the persistent strong winds and a long and undisturbed fetch over a long period.  相似文献   

Talus slope geomorphology investigated at multiple time scales from high-resolution topographic surveys and historical aerial photographs (Sanetsch Pass,Switzerland)     

Hanne Hendrickx  Lars De Sloover  Cornelis Stal  Reynald Delaloye  Jan Nyssen  Amaury Frankl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(14):3653-3669

Talus slopes are common places for debris storage in high-mountain environments and form an important step in the alpine sediment cascade. To understand slope instabilities and sediment transfers, detailed investigations of talus slope geomorphology are needed. Therefore, this study presents a detailed analysis of a talus slope on Col du Sanetsch (Swiss Alps), which is investigated at multiple time scales using high-resolution topographic (HRT) surveys and historical aerial photographs. HRT surveys were collected during three consecutive summers (2017–2019), using uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) measurements. To date, very few studies exist that use HRT methods on talus slopes, especially to the extent of our study area (2 km²). Data acquisition from ground control and in situ field observations is challenging on a talus slope due to the steep terrain (30–37°) and high surface roughness. This results in a poor spatial distribution of ground control points (GCPs), causing unwanted deformation of up to 2 m in the gathered UAV-derived HRT data. The co-alignment of UAV imagery from different survey dates improved this deformation significantly, as validated by the TLS data. Sediment transfer is dominated by small-scale but widespread snow push processes. Pre-existing debris flow channels are prone to erosion and redeposition of material within the channel. A debris flow event of high magnitude occurred in the summer of 2019, as a result of several convective thunderstorms. While low-magnitude (<5,000 m³) debris flow events are frequent throughout the historical record with a return period of 10–20 years, this 2019 event exceeded all historical debris flow events since 1946 in both extent and volume. Future climate predictions show an increase of such intense precipitation events in the region, potentially altering the frequency of debris flows in the study area and changing the dominant geomorphic process which are active on such talus slopes. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Tidal Effects on Determining a Point at the Bottom of the Sea by Combining GPS and Sonar Observations     

Wenke Sun  Lars E. Sjöberg 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1):35-51

This paper discusses tidal effects on an observation scheme to determine a point at the bottom of the sea by combining GPS and Sonar observations. For the purpose, three kinds of Earth tides are introduced (i.e., the crust tide, the equipotential surface point (ocean depth) tide, and the geoid tide). The corresponding mathematical expressions are derived to demonstrate the tidal effects on GPS and Sonar observations. The relations between the Earth tides are also discussed. Theoretical results imply a very interesting conclusion, namely that, for a local area, the static position of a point at the bottom of sea can be obtained by the dynamic observations without any tidal correction. Actually, the tidal effects cancel each other in the mentioned observation scheme. It therefore indicates that the observation scheme is free of tidal effects. Furthermore, we learned that the divergence caused by any error source on ocean surface is canceled and does not affect the final results. Therefore, to determine the position of a point at the bottom of sea, we need not consider any tidal effects.  相似文献