Tracking suitable habitat for tree populations under climate change in western North America   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Laura K. Gray  Andreas Hamann 《Climatic change》2013,117(1-2):289-303

An important criticism of bioclimate envelope models is that many wide-ranging species consist of locally adapted populations that may all lag behind their optimal climate habitat under climate change, and thus should be modeled separately. Here, we apply a bioclimate envelope model that tracks habitat of individual populations to estimate adaptational lags for 15 wide-ranging forest tree species in western North America. An ensemble classifier modeling approach (RandomForest) was used to spatially project the climate space of tree populations under observed climate trends (1970s to 2000s) and multi-model projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that, on average, populations already lag behind their optimal climate niche by approximately 130 km in latitude, or 60 m in elevation. For the 2020s we expect an average lag of approximately 310 km in latitude or 140 m in elevation, with the most pronounced geographic lags in the Rocky Mountains and the boreal forest. We show that our results could in principle be applied to guide assisted migration of planting stock in reforestation programs using a general formula where 100 km north shift is equivalent to approximately 44 m upward shift in elevation. However, additional non-climatic factors should be considered when matching reforestation stock to suitable planting environments.  相似文献   

Tsunami impact to Washington and northern Oregon from segment ruptures on the southern Cascadia subduction zone     

George R. Priest  Yinglong Zhang  Robert C. Witter  Kelin Wang  Chris Goldfinger  Laura Stimely 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):849-870

This paper explores the size and arrival of tsunamis in Oregon and Washington from the most likely partial ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) in order to determine (1) how quickly tsunami height declines away from sources, (2) evacuation time before significant inundation, and (3) extent of felt shaking that would trigger evacuation. According to interpretations of offshore turbidite deposits, the most frequent partial ruptures are of the southern CSZ. Combined recurrence of ruptures extending ~490 km from Cape Mendocino, California, to Waldport, Oregon (segment C) and ~320 km from Cape Mendocino to Cape Blanco, Oregon (segment D), is ~530 years. This recurrence is similar to frequency of full-margin ruptures on the CSZ inferred from paleoseismic data and to frequency of the largest distant tsunami sources threatening Washington and Oregon, ~M _w 9.2 earthquakes from the Gulf of Alaska. Simulated segment C and D ruptures produce relatively low-amplitude tsunamis north of source areas, even for extreme (20 m) peak slip on segment C. More than ~70 km north of segments C and D, the first tsunami arrival at the 10-m water depth has an amplitude of <1.9 m. The largest waves are trapped edge waves with amplitude ≤4.2 m that arrive ≥2 h after the earthquake. MM V–VI shaking could trigger evacuation of educated populaces as far north as Newport, Oregon for segment D events and Grays Harbor, Washington for segment C events. The NOAA and local warning systems will be the only warning at greater distances from sources.  相似文献   

Estimating the hydraulic properties of an aquitard from in situ pore pressure measurements     

Brian D. Smerdon  Laura A. Smith  Glenn A. Harrington  W. Payton Gardner  Claudio Delle Piane  Joel Sarout 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(8):1875-1887

A workflow is described to estimate specific storage (S _s) and hydraulic conductivity (K) from a profile of vibrating wire piezometers embedded into a regional aquitard in Australia. The loading efficiency, compressibility and S _s were estimated from pore pressure response to atmospheric pressure changes, and K was estimated from the earliest part of the measurement record following grouting. Results indicate that S _s and K were, respectively, 8.8?×?10^?6 to 1.2?×?10^?5 m^?1 and 2?×?10^?12 m s^?1 for a claystone/siltstone, and 4.3?×?10^?6 to 9.6?×?10^?6 m^?1 and 1?×?10^?12 to 5?×?10^?12 m s^?1 for a thick mudstone. K estimates from the pore pressure response are within one order of magnitude when compared to direct measurement in a laboratory and inverse modelled flux rates determined from natural tracer profiles. Further analysis of the evolution and longevity of the properties of borehole grout (e.g. thermal and chemical effects) may help refine the estimation of formation hydraulic properties using this workflow. However, the convergence of K values illustrates the benefit of multiple lines of evidence to support aquitard characterization. An additional benefit of in situ pore pressure measurement is the generation of long-term data to constrain groundwater flow models, which provides a link between laboratory scale data and the formation scale.  相似文献   

Characterizing snowmelt anomalies in hydrochemographs of a karst spring,Cumberland Valley,Pennsylvania (USA): evidence for multiple recharge pathways   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Chad E. Reisch  Laura Toran 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(1):47-58

Conductivity, water level, air temperature, and depth of snowpack were monitored during a 26-day melt period of 88-cm-deep snowpack at a karst spring to characterize internal runoff and diffuse infiltration. Chloride from road salt provided a tracer and the snowpack a recharge source during the melt period. The melt period was divided into phases based on air temperature and chemograph pattern. For the first and third phases, mean air temperatures were below freezing, but above freezing during the second and fourth phases. During the first phase when the temperature peaked above freezing, conductivity typically spiked 10–50 μS/cm, suggesting input of road salt from conduits. When the snowpack continuously melted, conductivity and water-level trends were upward with smaller daily spikes in conductivity indicating infiltration from the dilute snowpack. This pattern suggests that road salt input continued when snowmelt recharged through the epikarst, but at lower concentrations than the conduit input. Refreezing of the snowpack and shallow subsurface for a brief period interrupted the recharge, and there was no longer a sawtooth pattern of conductivity. It is apparent that frozen conditions did not cease recharge because a dual recharge process was evident. While dual recharge from internal runoff and diffuse infiltration occurred, the portions varied because of changing melting rates. Observed patterns indicated internal runoff dominated during frozen periods because recharge water moved as overland flow across a frozen surface to focused pathways. Diffuse infiltration became available during warmer periods because subsurface thawing allowed the snowmelt to penetrate the epikarst. Results of snowmelt monitoring in spring discharge indicated the transient nature of karst recharge.  相似文献   

Biomarkers in croakers Micropogonias furnieri (Teleostei: Sciaenidae) from polluted and non-polluted areas from the Patos Lagoon estuary (Southern Brazil): evidences of genotoxic and immunological effects     

Amado LL  da Rosa CE  Leite AM  Moraes L  Pires WV  Pinho GL  Martins CM  Robaldo RB  Nery LE  Monserrat JM  Bianchini A  Martinez PE  Geracitano LA 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(2):199-206

Biomarkers of exposure and effect of pollutants were analyzed in croakers Micropogonias furnieri (Teleostei: Sciaenidae) captured in winter and summer in a polluted and in a non-polluted site at the Patos Lagoon estuary (Southern Brazil). Catalase and glutathione S-transferase activities (exposure biomarkers) and lipid peroxidation (effect biomarker) were analyzed in liver samples. Other two effect biomarkers were also studied: blood cells DNA damage (through comet assay and micronucleus test) and respiratory burst measurements. In a broad view, results point to an important seasonal variation of the biochemical biomarkers analyzed. However, data obtained clearly indicate that croakers collected in winter at the polluted site were subjected to a level of clastogenic agents sufficient to generate irreversible genetic damages (mutations) and impair the fish immune system.  相似文献   

Spatial Distribution of Nitrous Oxide (N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O) in the Reloncaví Estuary–Sound and Adjacent Sea (41°–43° S), Chilean Patagonia     

Mariela A. Yevenes  Estrella Bello  Sandra Sanhueza-Guevara  Laura Farías 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(3):807-821

Fjords and estuaries exchange large amounts of solutes, gases, and particulates between fluvial and marine systems. These exchanges and their relative distributions of compounds/particles are partially controlled by stratification and water circulation. The spatial and vertical distributions of N₂O, an important greenhouse gas, along with other oceanographic variables, are analyzed from the Reloncaví estuary (RE) (~41° 30′ S) to the gulf of Corcovado in the interior sea of Chiloé (43° 45′ S) during the austral winter. Freshwater runoff into the estuary regulated salinity and stratification of the water column, clearly demarking the surface (<5 m depth) and subsurface layer (>5 m depth) and also separating estuarine and marine influenced areas. N₂O levels varied between 8.3 and 21 nM (corresponding to 80 and 170 % saturation, respectively), being significantly lower (11.8 ± 1.70) at the surface than in subsurface waters in the Reloncaví estuary (14.5 ± 1.73). Low salinity and NO₃ ^?, NO₂ ^?, and PO₄ ^3? levels, as well as high Si(OH)₄ values were associated with low surface N₂O levels. Remarkably, an accumulation of N₂O was observed in the subsurface waters of the Reloncaví sound, associated with a relatively high consumption of O₂. The sound is exposed to increasing anthropogenic impacts from aquaculture and urban discharge, occurring simultaneously with an internal recirculation, which leads to potential signals of early eutrophication. In contrast, within the interior sea of Chiloé (ISC), most of water column was quasi homohaline and occupied by modified subantarctic water (MSAAW), which was relatively rich in N₂O (12.6 ± 2.36 nM) and NO₃ ^? (18.3 ± 1.63 μM). The relationship between salinity, nutrients, and N₂O revealed that water from the open ocean, entering into ISC (the Gulf of Corcovado) through the Guafo mouth, was the main source of N₂O (up to 21 nM), as it gradually mixed with estuarine water. In addition, significant relationships between N₂O excess vs. AOU and N₂O excess vs. NO₃ ^? suggest that part of N₂O is also produced by nitrification. Our results show that the estuarine and marine waters can act as light source or sink of N₂O to the atmosphere (air–sea N₂O fluxes ranged from ?1.57 to 5.75 μmol m^?2 day^?1), respectively; influxes seem to be associated to brackish water depleted in N₂O that also caused a strong stratification, creating a barrier to gas exchange.  相似文献   

Petrogenesis of Quebrada de la Mina and Altar North porphyries (Cordillera of San Juan,Argentina): Crustal assimilation and metallogenic implications     

Laura Maydagán  Marta Franchini  Massimo Chiaradia  Verónica Bouhier  Noelia Di Giuseppe  Roger Rey  Luis Dimieri 《地学前缘(英文版)》2017,8(5):1135-1159

We investigate the geology of Altar North (Cu–Au) and Quebrada de la Mina (Au) porphyry deposits located in San Juan Province (Argentina), close to the large Altar porphyry copper deposit (995 Mt, 0.35% Cu, 0.083 g/t Au), to present constraints on the magmatic processes that occurred in the parental magma chambers of these magmatic-hydrothermal systems. Altar North deposit comprises a plagioclase-amphibole-phyric dacite intrusion (Altar North barren porphyry) and a plagioclase-amphibole-biotite-phyric dacite stock (Altar North mineralized porphyry, 11.98 ± 0.19 Ma). In Quebrada de la Mina, a plagioclase-amphibole-biotite-quartz-phyric dacite stock (QDM porphyry, 11.91 ± 0.33 Ma) crops out. High Sr/Y ratios (92–142) and amphibole compositions of Altar North barren and QDM porphyries reflect high magmatic oxidation states (fO₂ = NNO +1.1 to +1.6) and high fH₂O conditions in their magmas. Zones and rims enriched in anorthite (An_37–48), SrO (0.22–0.33 wt.%) and FeO (0.21–0.37 wt.%) in plagioclase phenocrysts are evidences of magmatic recharge processes in the magma chambers. Altar North and Quebrada de la Mina intrusions have relatively homogeneous isotopic compositions (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(t) = 0.70450–0.70466, ε_Nd(t) = +0.2 to +1.2) consistent with mixed mantle and crust contributions in their magmas. Higher Pb isotopes ratios (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.6276–15.6294) of these intrusions compared to other porphyries of the district, reflect an increase in the assimilation of high radiogenic Pb components in the magmas. Ages of zircon xenocrysts (297, 210, 204, 69 Ma) revealed that the magmas have experienced assimilation of Miocene, Cretaceous, Triassic and Carboniferous crustal rocks.Fluids that precipitated sulfides in the Altar deposit may have remobilized Pb from the host rocks, as indicated by the ore minerals being more radiogenic (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.6243–15.6269) than their host intrusions. Au/Cu ratio in Altar porphyries (average Au/Cu ratio of 0.14 × 10^?4 by weight in Altar Central) is higher than in the giant Miocene porphyry deposits located to the south: Los Pelambres, Río Blanco and Los Bronces (Chile) and Pachón (Argentina). We suggest that the increase in Au content in the porphyries of this region could be linked to the assimilation of high radiogenic Pb components in the magmas within these long-lived maturation systems.  相似文献