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11.
This study focuses on the precipitation extremes recorded on the northern and southern slopes of the central Himalaya, especially those documented at higher altitudes. Daily precipitation data recorded over a 35-year period at nine meteorological stations in the region were studied. We used the precipitation extreme indices delineated by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The spatial and temporal variations in these precipitation extremes were calculated. When regional patterns were investigated to detect any anomalies, only 1 of the 10 precipitation extreme indices from the southern slopes of the central Himalaya showed a statistically significant trend; none from the northern slopes of the central Himalaya highlighted a statistically significant trend. On the southern slopes, all indices increased, apart from the maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1) and simple daily precipitation intensity (SDII) indices. Indices such as the consecutive dry days (CDDs) and RX1 indices exhibited similar increases on both the northern and southern slopes of the central Himalaya. These results suggest that increases in precipitation have been accompanied by an increasing frequency of extremes over the southern central Himalaya. Nonetheless, no relation could be established between the precipitation extreme indices and circulation indices for higher altitudes.
相似文献12.
Groundwater-level prediction using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques: a comparative assessment 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
The potential of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in predicting transient water levels over a groundwater basin were compared. MLR and ANN modeling was carried out at 17 sites in Japan, considering all significant inputs: rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage, 11 seasonal dummy variables, and influential lags of rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage and groundwater level. Seventeen site-specific ANN models were developed, using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical and graphical indicators. Comparison of the goodness-of-fit statistics of the MLR models with those of the ANN models indicated that there is better agreement between the ANN-predicted groundwater levels and the observed groundwater levels at all the sites, compared to the MLR. This finding was supported by the graphical indicators and the residual analysis. Thus, it is concluded that the ANN technique is superior to the MLR technique in predicting spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater levels in a basin. However, considering the practical advantages of the MLR technique, it is recommended as an alternative and cost-effective groundwater modeling tool. 相似文献
13.
Delineation of groundwater recharge zones and identification of artificial recharge sites in West Medinipur district,West Bengal,using RS,GIS and MCDM techniques 总被引：14，自引：4，他引：10
Artificial recharge plays a pivotal role in the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This study proposes a methodology
to delineate artificial recharge zones as well as to identify favorable artificial recharge sites using integrated remote
sensing (RS), geographical information system (GIS) and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for augmenting groundwater
resources in the West Medinipur district of West Bengal, India, which has been facing water shortage problems for the past
few years. The thematic layers considered in this study are: geomorphology, geology, drainage density, slope and aquifer transmissivity,
which were prepared using IRS-1D imagery and conventional data. Different themes and their corresponding features were assigned
proper weights based on their relative contribution to groundwater recharge in the area, and normalized weights were computed
using the Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP). These thematic layers were then integrated in the GIS environment to delineate
artificial recharge zones in the study area. The artificial recharge map thus obtained divided the study area into three zones,
viz., ‘suitable,’ ‘moderately suitable’ and ‘unsuitable’ according to their suitability for artificial groundwater recharge.
It was found that about 46% of the study area falls under ‘suitable’ zone, whereas 43% falls under the ‘moderately suitable’
zone. The western portion of the study area was found to be unsuitable for artificial recharge. The artificial recharge zone
map of the study area was found to be in agreement with the map of mean groundwater depths over the area. Furthermore, forty
possible sites for artificial recharge were also identified using RS and GIS techniques. Based on the available field information,
check dams are suggested as promising artificial recharge structures. The results of this study could be used to formulate
an efficient groundwater management plan for the study area so as to ensure sustainable utilization of scarce groundwater
resources. 相似文献
14.
Len R. Garces Michael D. Pido Robert S. Pomeroy Sonny Koeshendrajana Budi Iskandar Prisantoso Nurul Ahmad Fatan Dedi Adhuri T. Raiful Syamsul Rizal Alexander Tewfik Madan Dey 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(2):69-79
This paper describes the application of the methodology called Rapid Appraisal of Fisheries Management System (RAFMS) to assess quickly the situation in tsunami-affected coastal fisheries in Aceh Province, Indonesia. As a diagnostic tool, the RAFMS is introduced in terms of its conceptual framework and procedures. The RAFMS was used to appraise the status of the fisheries sector in selected 15 villages. Information generated concerning level of fishing effort, marketing patterns and community perspectives on livelihood options are used as three illustrative examples. The paper also provides some insights in applying the RAFMS methodology in the context of disasters and in the broader context of tropical fisheries management. 相似文献
15.
Determination of hydraulic parameters of an unconfined alluvial aquifer by the floodwave-response technique 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Madan?K.?JhaEmail author K.?Jayalekshmi Deepesh?Machiwal Y.?Kamii K.?Chikamori 《Hydrogeology Journal》2004,12(6):628-642
Groundwater constitutes a vital component of the water-resource system. Adequate knowledge of aquifer parameters is of utmost importance for proper groundwater management. In the present study, an attempt has been made to critically analyze the river–aquifer interaction and to explore the practicability and reliability of the floodwave-response technique in estimating the hydraulic parameters of the Konan aquifer, Japan. The analysis of the pertinent hydrologic and hydrogeologic data revealed a strong relationship between the Monobe River stage and the groundwater levels over a major portion of the Konan basin. Inverse modeling, using the floodwave-response model at four sites, yielded high values of hydraulic diffusivity that ranged from 16 to 194 m2/s. However, the overall average aquifer diffusivity was found to be reasonable (0.7–3.5 m2/s). All the selected flood events were not found suitable for determining reasonable values of hydraulic diffusivity at a given site. Using the optimal diffusivities at two sites and the aquifer transmissivity from the pumping tests at these sites, the storage coefficient values were estimated as those of truly confined aquifers. In contrast, reasonable values of storage coefficient were obtained based on the average aquifer diffusivity estimates. The sensitivity analysis of the floodwave-response model indicated that the optimal hydraulic diffusivity is very sensitive to the distance parameters of the model, which necessitate precise measurement of these parameters. It is concluded that a judicious application of the floodwave-response technique is essential, especially in the case of unconfined aquifers.
Resumen El agua subterránea constituye un componente vital de los sistemas de recursos hídricos. El conocimiento adecuado de los parámetros del acuífero es de suma importancia para el manejo apropiado del agua subterránea. En el presente estudio se ha realizado un intento para analizar críticamente la interacción río-acuífero y explorar la confiabilidad y utilidad de la técnica de respuesta de onda de crecida para estimar los parámetros hidráulicos del acuífero Konan, Japón. El análisis de datos hidrológicos e hidrogeológicos pertinentes muestra una relación fuerte entre el nivel del Río Monobe y los niveles de agua subterránea en gran parte de la cuenca Konan. El modelizado de inversión utilizando el modelo de respuesta de onda de crecida en cuatro sitios generó valores altos de difusividad hidráulica que varían de 16 a 194 m2/s. Sin embargo, se encontró que la difusividad promedio global del acuífero tenía valores razonables (0.7 a 3.5 m2/s). Todos los eventos de crecida seleccionados no fueron encontrados satisfactorios para determinar valores razonables de difusividad hidráulica en un sitio determinado. Utilizando las difusividades óptimas en dos sitios y la transmisividad del acuífero proveniente de pruebas de bombeo en esos sitios se estimaron valores del coeficiente de almacenamiento como los que se obtendrían para acuíferos completamente confinados. En contraste, se obtuvieron valores razonables del coeficiente de almacenamiento basados en los cálculos de difusividades promedio del acuífero. Los análisis de sensitividad del modelo de respuesta de onda de crecida indicaron que la difusividad óptima hidráulica es muy sensitiva a los parámetros de distancia del modelo por lo que se necesitan mediciones precisas de esos parámetros. Se concluye que es esencial una aplicación sensata de la técnica de respuesta de onda de crecida, especialmente en el caso de acuíferos no confinados.
Resumé Leau souterraine constitue une composante vitale des systèmes de ressource en eau. Une connaissance adéquate des paramètres des aquifères est importante pour une gestion correcte de ces systèmes. Dans cette étude, la démarche consiste à analyser linteraction rivière–aquifère de manière critique et dexplorer la technique permettant destimer les paramètres hydrauliques de laquifère Konan, Japon. Lanalyse pertinente des données hydrologiques et hydrogéologiques révèle une relation forte entre le niveau de la rivière Monobe et les niveaux piézométriques sur une grande partie du bassin de Konan. La modélisation inverse utilisant le modèle de réponse aux vagues de crue sur quatre sites fournit des valeurs de diffusivité comprises entre 16 et 194 m2/s. Néanmoins la valeur moyenne de diffusivité est apparue raisonnable (entre 0.7 et 3.5 m2/s). Tous les évènements de crue nont pas été retenus comme permettant de calculer avec une bonne fiabilité la diffusivité sur un site donné. En utilisant les données optimales de diffusivité provenant de deux sites, et la transmissivité fournie par les essais de pompage, le coefficient demmagasinement a été déterminé et correspond bien à un aquifère confiné. Par contraste, des valeurs raisonnables de coefficient demmagasinement ont été déterminées par estimation de la diffusivité moyenne de laquifère. Lanalyse de sensibilité du modèle de réponse aux vagues de crue indique que la diffusivité hydraulique optimale est très sensible à la distance utilisée dans le modèle, qui nécessite dés lors une mesure précise. En conclusion il est essentiel que ce type dapplication doit tre judicieusement mis en oeuvre, et spécialement dans le cadre daquifères captifs.相似文献
16.
17.
The hydrogeologic and hydraulic characteristics of a lateritic terrain in West Bengal, India, were investigated. Test drilling was conducted at ten sites and grain-size distribution curves (GSDCs) were prepared for 275 geologic samples. Performance evaluation of eight grain-size-analysis (GSA) methods was carried out to estimate the hydraulic conductivity (K) of subsurface formations. Finally, the GSA results were validated against pumping-test data. The GSDCs indicated that shallow aquifer layers are coarser than the deeper aquifer layers (uniformity coefficient 0.19–11.4). Stratigraphy analysis revealed that both shallow and deep aquifers of varying thickness exist at depths 9–40 and 40–79 m, respectively. The mean K estimates by the GSA methods are 3.62–292.86 m/day for shallow aquifer layers and 0.97–209.93 m/day for the deeper aquifer layers, suggesting significant aquifer heterogeneity. Pumping-test data indicated that the deeper aquifers are leaky confined with transmissivity 122.69–693.79 m2/day, storage coefficient 1.01?×?10?7–2.13?×?10?4 and leakance 2.01?×?10?7–34.56?×?10?2 day?1. Although the K values yielded by the GSA methods are generally larger than those obtained from the pumping tests, the Slichter, Harleman and US Bureau Reclamation (USBR) GSA methods yielded reasonable values at most of the sites (1–3 times higher than K estimates by the pumping-test method). In conclusion, more reliable aquifers exist at deeper depths that can be tapped for dependable water supply. GSA methods such as Slichter, Harleman and USBR can be used for the preliminary assessment of K in lateritic terrains in the absence of reliable field methods. 相似文献
18.
A data-driven approach for analyzing dynamics of tide–aquifer interaction in coastal aquifer systems
Analysis of tidal effects on aquifer systems plays an important role in coastal aquifer management owing to various hydrological,
engineering and environmental problems in coastal areas. Using the real-world data of unconfined and confined aquifers, a
data-driven approach is presented in this study for the analysis of tide–aquifer interaction in coastal aquifers. Six analytical
tide–aquifer interaction models were selected which take into account the effects of vertical beach, sloping beach, tidal
loading, aquifer leakage, outlet capping, and combined leakage and outlet capping on tide-induced groundwater fluctuations.
The tide–aquifer interaction datasets were obtained from the Konan groundwater basin (unconfined aquifer) of Japan and the
Dridrate groundwater basin (confined aquifer) of Morocco. The analysis of the results obtained by the sloping beach model
revealed that for a given beach slope, the amplitude of groundwater level increases with an increase in aquifer diffusivity
and a decrease in aquifer thickness. However, no significant effect of beach slope was observed in this study at unconfined
sites for all the datasets. The influence of tidal loading was found to be considerably less for all the three confined sites.
Further, the analysis of the results of the leakage model indicated that with an increase in leakage into the aquifer, the
amplitude of groundwater level as well as the phase shift (time lag) decreases. Of all the confined and unconfined datasets,
only two confined sites were found to be affected by outlet capping. Overall, it is concluded that the coastal beach bordering
the Konan basin is not significantly sloping, the contribution of tidal loading to tide-induced groundwater fluctuations in
the Dridrate aquifer is not appreciable, and that the aquifer leakage and outlet capping do not exist at the unconfined sites
under investigation. 相似文献
19.
A dense seismic network (～100 stations) was operated in the Koyna-Warna region from January 2010 to May 2010, that allow us to collect 400 high-quality local earthquake data of magnitude less than 4. In this region, the fault structure and tectonic setting that accommodate the induced seismicity is not well understood. To investigate the seismotectonics of the region, we have inverted 7826 P- and 7047 S-P arrival times for 3-D Vp and Vp/Vs tomographic models along with hypocenters parameters in the region. Although, Dixit et al. (2014) have performed 3-D local earthquake tomography with double-difference tomography code using catalog differential time data. In this paper, Simulps14 code on the same data set is applied. For better approach P arrival time and S-P travel times are inverted directly for Vp, Vp/Vs variations and earthquake locations. High Vp ～5.9 to 6.5 and low to high Vp/Vs ～1.69-1.74 imaged in the hypocenter region. These features interpreted as a fluid bearing rock mass under high pore pressure. It is also observed that below the trap basement form a local topography depression between the Koyna and Warna Reservoirs. To the South of the Warna reservoir, intense seismic activity defines a major cluster of ～ 5 km width at 3 to7 km deep, located under the trap, where the basement is deepening. Such regions are inferred to be associated with the seismically active faults zones. The obtain velocity anomalies are reliable down to a depth of 10 km. This is also confirmed by the analysis of three resolution parameters viz. Hit count, Derivative Weight sum (DWS) and Resolution Diagonal Elements (RDE). 相似文献
20.
Parameter identification and uncertainty analysis for simulating streamflow in a river basin of Eastern India 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3 
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下载免费PDF全文 Uncertainty is inherent in modelling studies. However, the quantification of uncertainties associated with a model is a challenging task, and hence, such studies are somewhat limited. As distributed or semi‐distributed hydrological models are being increasingly used these days to simulate hydrological processes, it is vital that these models should be equipped with robust calibration and uncertainty analysis techniques. The goal of the present study was to calibrate and validate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for simulating streamflow in a river basin of Eastern India, and to evaluate the performance of salient optimization techniques in quantifying uncertainties. The SWAT model for the study basin was developed and calibrated using Parameter Solution (ParaSol), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI‐2) and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) optimization techniques. The daily observed streamflow data from 1998 to 2003 were used for model calibration, and those for 2004–2005 were used for model validation. Modelling results indicated that all the three techniques invariably yield better results for the monthly time step than for the daily time step during both calibration and validation. The model performances for the daily streamflow simulation using ParaSol and SUFI‐2 during calibration are reasonably good with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.88 and 9.70 m3/s for ParaSol, and 0.86 and 10.07 m3/s for SUFI‐2, respectively. The simulation results of GLUE revealed that the model simulates daily streamflow during calibration with the highest accuracy in the case of GLUE (R2 = 0.88, MAE = 9.56 m3/s and root mean square error = 19.70 m3/s). The results of uncertainty analyses by SUFI‐2 and GLUE were compared in terms of parameter uncertainty. It was found that SUFI‐2 is capable of estimating uncertainties in complex hydrological models like SWAT, but it warrants sound knowledge of the parameters and their effects on the model output. On the other hand, GLUE predicts more reliable uncertainty ranges (R‐factor = 0.52 for daily calibration and 0.48 for validation) compared to SUFI‐2 (R‐factor = 0.59 for daily calibration and 0.55 for validation), though it is computationally demanding. Although both SUFI‐2 and GLUE appear to be promising techniques for the uncertainty analysis of modelling results, more and more studies in this direction are required under varying agro‐climatic conditions for assessing their generic capability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献