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Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions 
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下载免费PDF全文 The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The role of the open standpipe Casagrande piezometer for determining soil pore pressures is still important because of its simplicity and reliability in comparison with transducer type instruments. Such factors are especially relevant when instrumentation is used on remote and inaccessible sites. The limitations of Casagrande type systems relate to poor response times, particularly in soils of low permeability, and the complexity of the normal gas bubbling equipment used to monitor and record data from this type of piezometer. The response can be improved, providing the design of the installation is taken into consideration in terms of the piezometer collection area and standpipe sizes. A simple acoustic technique has been developed by Geotechnical Monitoring Ltd, to monitor and record piezometric levels. This is based on measuring the period for the return echo of a high frequency signal; a technique widely used to focus cameras that has been found to be reliable and accurate. However, trials on landslide sites in Indonesia highlighted problems which related more to a lack of development rather than any fundamental problems in the method of monitoring standpipes. This paper describes such problems and how they might be overcome. 相似文献
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Abstract The trends of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in southern China (Guangdong Province) for the period 1956–2000 are investigated, based on the data from 186 high-quality gauging stations. Statistical tests, including Mann-Kendall rank test and wavelet analysis, are employed to determine whether the precipitation series exhibit any regular trend and periodicity. The results indicate that the annual precipitation has a slightly decreasing trend in central Guangdong and slight increasing trends in the eastern and western areas of the province. However, all the annual trends are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The average precipitation increases in the dry season in central Guangdong, but decreases in the wet season, meaning that the precipitation becomes more evenly distributed within the year. Furthermore, the analysis of monthly precipitation suggests that the distribution of intra-annual precipitation changes over time. The results of wavelet analysis show prominent precipitation with periods ranging from 10 to 12 years in every sub-region in Guangdong Province. Comparing with the sunspot cycle (11-year), the annual precipitation in every sub-region in Guangdong province correlates with Sunspot Number with a 3-year lag. The findings in this paper will be useful for water resources management. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Sheng Yue Citation Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Xiaohong Chen and Quanxi Shao, 2012. Analysis of trends of annual and seasonal precipitation from 1956 to 2000 in Guangdong Province, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 358–369. 相似文献
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气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
作为联结大气圈和地圈的纽带,水文循环同时承受气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）的双重影响,然而大多数的水文响应研究主要关注未来气候变化对径流的影响,忽略了未来LUCC的作用。因此,本文的研究目的是评估未来气候变化和LUCC对径流的共同影响。首先采用2种全球气候模式（BCC-CSM1.1和BNU-ESM）输出,基于DBC降尺度模型得到未来气候变化情景;然后,利用CA-Markov模型预测未来LUCC情景;最后,通过设置不同的气候和LUCC情景组合,采用SWAT模型模拟汉江流域的未来径流过程,定量评估气候变化和LUCC对径流的影响。结果表明：① 未来时期汉江流域的年降水量、日最高、最低气温相较于基准期（1966—2005年）,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下,分别增加4.0%、1.8 ℃、1.6 ℃和3.7%、2.5 ℃、2.3 ℃;② 2010—2050年间,流域内林地和建设用地的面积占比将分别增加2.8%和1.2%,而耕地和草地面积占比将分别减少1.5%和2.5%;③ 与单一气候变化或LUCC情景相比,气候变化和LUCC共同影响下的径流变化幅度最大,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下未来时期年平均径流分别增加5.10%、2.67%,且气候变化对径流的影响显著大于LUCC。本文的研究结果将有助于维护未来气候变化和LUCC共同影响下汉江流域的水资源规划与管理。 相似文献
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Len R. Garces Michael D. Pido Robert S. Pomeroy Sonny Koeshendrajana Budi Iskandar Prisantoso Nurul Ahmad Fatan Dedi Adhuri T. Raiful Syamsul Rizal Alexander Tewfik Madan Dey 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(2):69-79
This paper describes the application of the methodology called Rapid Appraisal of Fisheries Management System (RAFMS) to assess quickly the situation in tsunami-affected coastal fisheries in Aceh Province, Indonesia. As a diagnostic tool, the RAFMS is introduced in terms of its conceptual framework and procedures. The RAFMS was used to appraise the status of the fisheries sector in selected 15 villages. Information generated concerning level of fishing effort, marketing patterns and community perspectives on livelihood options are used as three illustrative examples. The paper also provides some insights in applying the RAFMS methodology in the context of disasters and in the broader context of tropical fisheries management. 相似文献
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浙江近岸泥质区百年来浮游植物生产力的变化及对环境的响应 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
在210Pb定年的基础上, 对取自浙江沿岸泥质缺氧区的柱样沉积物开展了菜子甾醇、甲藻甾醇、长链烯酮等生物标志化合物分析, 根据生物标志化合物含量及比例的分布特征, 重建了泥质区110年来浮游植物生产力及群落结构变化。结果表明浙江近岸浮游植物生产力百年来呈上升趋势, 自20世纪60年代开始上升, 80年代以来有显著增加, 浮游植物群落结构则均有甲藻比例上升、硅藻比例下降的趋势。研究认为, 浙江沿岸泥质区百年来浮游植物生产力的提高与我国化肥施用量和长江氮的入海通量呈正相关, 营养盐N∶P和N∶Si比值的增加导致浮游植物优势种由硅藻向甲藻的转变, 说明自20世纪60年代, 尤其是自20世纪80年代以来工农业快速发展、大型水利工程建设等人类活动是导致浙江沿岸泥质区海域浮游植物生产力提高及群落结构变化的主要因素。 相似文献
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探讨气候变化下未来虚拟水贸易,为流域水资源合理配置研究提供了一种新的思路。本文在计算历史基准年2010s汉江流域主要作物虚拟水含量及贸易量的基础上,应用BCC-CSM1.1气候模式和SDSM模型,分析预测三种代表性浓度路径(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景)下未来水平年2030s汉江流域内三大省份(湖北、陕西和河南省)7种主要农作物的虚拟水含量以及贸易量结果。结果表明:在三种气候变化情景下,2030s汉江流域主要农作物虚拟水含量基本上较2010s均减小;气候变化对农产品耗水结构影响较小;气候变化对虚拟水净流入量为正反馈作用,增强了经济增长对虚拟水净流入量的增多作用。在未来虚拟水贸易量分析中,不能仅考虑经济增长所带来的影响,必须同时考虑气候变化的影响。 相似文献
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Observed rainfall and flow data from the Dongjiang River basin in humid southern China were used to investigate runoff changes during low‐flow and flooding periods and in annual flows over the past 45 years. We first applied the non‐parametric Mann–Kendall rank statistic method to analyze the change trend in precipitation, surface runoff and pan evaporation in those three periods. Findings showed that only the surface runoff in the low‐flow period increased significantly, which was due to a combination of increased precipitation and decreased pan evaporation. The Pettitt–Mann–Whitney statistical test results showed that 1973 and 1978 were the change points for the low‐flow period runoff in the Boluo sub‐catchment and in the Qilinzui sub‐catchment, respectively. Most importantly, we have developed a framework to separate the effects of climate change and human activities on the changes in surface runoff based on the back‐propagation artificial neural network (BP‐ANN) method from this research. Analyses from this study indicated that climate variabilities such as changes in precipitation and evaporation, and human activities such as reservoir operations, each accounted for about 50% of the runoff change in the low‐flow period in the study basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Dedi Liu Shenglian Guo Xiaohong Chen Quanxi Shao Qihua Ran Xingyuan Song Zhaoli Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(4):491-507
Macro-evolution is a new kind of high-level species evolution inspired by the dynamics of species extinction and diversification
at large time scales. Immune algorithms are a set of computational systems inspired by the defense process of the biological
immune system. By taking advantage of the macro-evolutionary algorithm and immune learning of artificial immune systems, this
article proposes a macro-evolutionary multi-objective immune algorithm (MEMOIA) for optimizing multi-objective allocation
of water resources in river basins. A benchmark test problem, namely the Viennet problem, is utilized to evaluate the performance
of the proposed new algorithm. The study indicates that the proposed algorithm yields a much better spread of solutions and
converges closer to the true Pareto frontier compared with The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm and Improving the Strength
Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm. MEMOIA is applied to a water allocation problem in the Dongjiang River basin in southern China,
with three objectives named economic interests (OF
1), water shortages (OF
2) and the amount of organic pollutants in water (OF
3). The results demonstrate the capabilities of MEMOIA as well as its suitability as a viable alternative for enhanced water
allocation and management in a river basin. 相似文献