Methodological challenges to confirmatory latent variable models of social vulnerability     

Goodman  Zachary T.  Stamatis  Caitlin A.  Stoler  Justin  Emrich  Christopher T.  Llabre  Maria M. 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(3):2731-2749

Natural Hazards - Socially vulnerable communities experience disproportionately negative outcomes following natural disasters and underscoring a need for well-validated measures to identify those...  相似文献   

Testing the consistency of Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum spatial correlations in temperature proxy records     

Maria Reschke  Igor Kröner  Thomas Laepple 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(1):20-28

Holocene temperature proxy records are commonly used in quantitative synthesis and model-data comparisons. However, comparing correlations between time series from records collected in proximity to one another with the expected correlations based on climate model simulations indicates either regional or noisy climate signals in Holocene temperature proxy records. In this study, we evaluate the consistency of spatial correlations present in Holocene proxy records with those found in data from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Specifically, we predict correlations expected in LGM proxy records if the only difference to Holocene correlations would be due to more time uncertainty and more climate variability in the LGM. We compare this simple prediction to the actual correlation structure in the LGM proxy records. We found that time series data of ice-core stable isotope records and planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca ratios were consistent between the Holocene and LGM periods, while time series of Uk'37 proxy records were not as we found no correlation between nearby LGM records. Our results support the finding of highly regional or noisy marine proxy records in the compilation analysed here and suggest the need for further studies on the role of climate proxies and the processes of climate signal recording and preservation.  相似文献   

A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques     

Gazzola  Laura  Ferronato  Massimiliano  Frigo  Matteo  Janna  Carlo  Teatini  Pietro  Zoccarato  Claudia  Antonelli  Massimo  Corradi  Anna  Dacome  Maria Carolina  Mantica  Stefano 《Computational Geosciences》2021,25(5):1731-1750

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...  相似文献   

What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors     

Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki  Maria Brockhaus  Jenniver Sehring  Monica Di Gregorio  Samuel Assembe-Mvondo  Andrea Babon 《Climate Policy》2019,19(3):315-328

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.

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A Long Way to Go: Collective Paths to Racial Justice in Geography     

Caroline Faria  Bisola Falola  Jane Henderson  Rebecca Maria Torres 《The Professional geographer》2019,71(2):364-376

Despite decades of recognition and worry about diversity, our discipline remains persistently white. That is, it is dominated by white bodies and it continues to conform to norms, practices, and ideologies of whiteness. This is a loss. At best, it limits the possibilities and impact of our work as geographers. At worst, it perpetuates harmful exclusions in our discipline: its working environments, its institutions, and its knowledge production. This remains deeply concerning for many geographers, and there has been important research, commentary, and institutional activity over the years. Yet, research shows us that little meaningful progress has been made. We know that mentoring is one vital part of the journey toward change. As such, we reflect here on our experience developing a research collective built on a transformative mentoring practice. We outline the key challenges, strategies, and tentative successes of the collective in supporting women of color undergraduate, graduate, and faculty geographers, arguing that such feminist formations are a vital part of the path to intellectual racial justice in our field. Key Words: diversity, feminist geography, higher education, mentoring, race.  相似文献   

Gentrification as space domestication. The High Line Art case     

Pier Luigi Sacco  Maria Tartari  Guido Ferilli  Giorgio Tavano Blessi 《Urban geography》2019,40(4):529-554

In this paper, we critically examine the role of artistic locational choices and practices in the context of gentrification processes in urban renewal contexts. We characterize gentrification as a form of domestication of space, and explore the extent to which artistic choices and practices relate to such process with reference to the deontological dilemma of legitimization within the art system vs. responsible empowerment of vulnerable local constituencies. We illustrate our argument with an analysis of the High Line Art project, and show how this can be considered as a textbook example of art-driven space domestication leading to brutal forms of gentrification. We comment on the threat that this provides to the social credibility of artistic practices as an agency of responsible social change.  相似文献   

Mid-late Holocene anthropogenic and natural variations in geochemistry and sedimentation in the Yazoo Basin: Clark Lake,Sharkey County,Mississippi     

Stan Galicki  Maria Bujenovic  Theresa Woehnker  Jeb Galtney  Trevor Galicki 《自然地理学》2019,40(3):209-226

A 4000-yr history at Clark Lake reveals natural variations in sediment geochemistry and nutrient levels and anthropogenic influence on twentieth century sedimentation rates. Sediment texture and ridge and swale topography indicate that the channel system creating Clark Lake is now occupied by the Yazoo River. Between 1.24 and 0.60 m (2522–865 cal yr BP), total carbon percentages and the C/N ratio average 42% and 17, respectively. The base of the 1650-yr interval and onset of high organic activity in the lake coincides with the abandonment of the Yazoo Meander Belt. The top of the interval is marked by a drop in C/N ratio to 11 and a geochemical transition zone. No change in the rate of sediment accumulation or clay mineralogy was observed despite increased cumulative percentages of Al, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Ca, and Na. The decrease in organic activity at 865 cal yr BP is attributed to unfavorable growth conditions related to the entrenchment of the Yazoo River and changes in the hydroperiod of the area. Significant floodplain alteration was completed in 1978, but the only major effect was increased sedimentation in the late twentieth century due to the completion of the Whittington Auxiliary Channel.  相似文献   

Geological and geophysical studies of the Agoudal impact structure (Central High Atlas,Morocco): New evidence for crater size and age     

Houda El Kerni  Hasnaa Chennaoui Aoudjehane  David Baratoux  Mohammed Aoudjehane  Andr Charrire  Hassan Ibouh  Pierre Rochette  Yoann Quesnel  Minoru Uehara  Thomas Kenkmann  Gerwin Wulf  Michael Poelchau  Van Binh Nguyen  Maria Aboulahris  Samira Makhoukhi  Georges Aumaître  Didier Bourls  Karim Keddadouche 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(10):2483-2509

Since the discovery of shatter cones (SCs) near the village of Agoudal (Morocco, Central High Atlas Mountains) in 2013, the absence of one or several associated circular structures led to speculation about the age of the impact event, the number, and the size of the impact crater or craters. Additional constraints on the crater size, age, and erosion rates are obtained here from geological, structural, and geophysical mapping and from cosmogenic nuclide data. Our geological maps of the Agoudal impact site at the scales of 1:30,000 (6 km²) and 1:15,000 (2.25 km²) include all known occurrences of SCs in target rocks, breccias, and vertical to overturned strata. Considering that strata surrounding the impact site are subhorizontal, we argue that disturbed strata are related to the impact event. Three types of breccias have been observed. Two of them (br1‐2 and br2) could be produced by erosion–sedimentation–consolidation processes, with no evidence for impact breccias, while breccia (br1) might be impact related. The most probable center of the structure is estimated at 31°59′13.73?N, 5°30′55.14?W using the concentric deviation method applied to the orientation of strata over the disturbed area. Despite the absence of a morphological expression, the ground magnetic and electromagnetic surveys reveal anomalies spatially associated with disturbed strata and SC occurrences. The geophysical data, the structural observations, and the area of occurrence of SCs in target rocks are all consistent with an original size of 1.4–4.2 km in diameter. Cosmogenic nuclide data (³⁶Cl) constrain the local erosion rates between 220 ± 22 m Ma^?1 and 430 ± 43 m Ma^?1. These erosion rates may remove the topographic expression of such a crater and its ejecta in a time period of about 0.3–1.9 Ma. This age is older than the Agoudal iron meteorite age (105 ± 40 kyr). This new age constraint excludes the possibility of a genetic relationship between the Agoudal iron meteorite fall and the formation of the Agoudal impact site. A chronolgy chart including the Atlas orogeny, the alternation of sedimentation and erosion periods, and the meteoritic impacts is presented based on all obtained and combined data.  相似文献   

A spatiotemporal calculus for reasoning about land-use trajectories   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Adeline Marinho Maciel  Gilberto Camara  Lubia Vinhas  Michelle Cristina Araújo Picoli  Rodrigo Anzolin Begotti  Luiz Fernando Ferreira Gomes de Assis 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(1):176-192

Earth observation images are a powerful source of data about changes in our planet. Given the magnitude of global environmental changes taking place, it is important that Earth Science researchers have access to spatiotemporal reasoning tools. One area of particular interest is land-use change. Using data obtained from images, researchers would like to express abstractions such as ‘land abandonment’, ‘forest regrowth’, and ‘agricultural intensification’. These abstractions are specific types of land-use trajectories, defined as multi-year paths from one land cover into another. Given this need, this paper introduces a spatiotemporal calculus for reasoning about land-use trajectories. Using Allen’s interval logic as a basis, we introduce new predicates that express cases of recurrence, conversion and evolution in land-use change. The proposed predicates are sufficient and necessary to express different kinds of land-use trajectories. Users can build expressions that describe how humans modify Earth’s terrestrial surface. In this way, scientists can better understand the environmental and economic effects of land-use change.  相似文献   

Bioaccumulation and trophic transfer of mercury in striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and tautog (Tautoga onitis) from the Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island,USA)     

Maria N. Piraino  David L. Taylor 《Marine environmental research》2009,67(3):117-128

We examined the bioaccumulation and trophic transfer of mercury in two marine finfish species, striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and tautog (Tautoga onitis), collected from the Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island, USA). For each of these target fish, white muscle tissue was analyzed for total mercury (Hg) and results were evaluated relative to fish age, body size, and Hg content of preferred prey. Dietary and stable isotope analysis was also used to elucidate the effect of trophic processes on Hg concentrations in fish. The Hg content of muscle tissue was positively correlated with fish age and length for both species, although striped bass accumulated Hg faster than tautog. Accelerated Hg bioaccumulation in striped bass is consistent with its high trophic level (trophic level = 4.07) and Hg-enriched prey (forage fish and macrocrustaceans; mean Hg content = 0.03 mg Hg kg wet wt^?1). In contrast, tautog maintain a lower trophic status (trophic level = 3.51) and consume prey with lower Hg levels (mussels and crabs; mean Hg content = 0.02 mg Hg kg wet wt^?1). Despite differences in Hg bioaccumulation between target fish, the mean Hg concentration of tautog exceeded levels in striped bass (0.24 and 0.16 mg Hg kg wet wt^?1, respectively) due to a disparity in age-at-catch between sampled groups (mean age of tautog and bass = 11.3 and 4.3 yr, respectively). Taking into account legal minimum catch lengths further revealed that 75.0% of legal-size striped bass (>70.2 cm TL; n = 4) and 44.8% of tautog (>40.6 cm TL; n = 29) had Hg levels beyond the US EPA regulatory threshold of 0.3 mg Hg kg wet wt^?1. Moreover, Hg-length relationships suggest that each target fish meets this threshold near their minimum legal catch length. Our findings reiterate the value of species ecology to improve predictions of fish Hg and permit better management of human contamination by this important dietary source.  相似文献