临界转换的早期预警信号   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marten Scheffer  George Sugihara  Jordi Bascompte  Victor Brovkin  Vasilis Dakos  Hermann Held  Max Rietkerk  李迎春  闫伟  蒋长胜 《国际地震动态》2009,(9):1-14

从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。  相似文献   

Classification of seismic signals at Villarrica volcano (Chile) using neural networks and genetic algorithms     

Gloria Curilem  Jorge Vergara  Gustavo Fuentealba  Gonzalo Acuña  Max Chacón 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009

Each volcano has its own unique seismic activity. The aim of this work is to construct a system able to classify seismic signals for the Villarrica volcano, one of the most active volcanoes in South America. Since seismic signals are the result of particular processes inside the volcano's structure, they can be used to forecast volcanic activity. This paper describes the different kinds of seismic signals recorded at the Villarrica volcano and their significance. Three kind of signals were considered as most representative of this volcano's activity: the long-period, the tremor, and the energetic tremor signals. A classifier is implemented to read the seismic registers at 30-second intervals, extract the most relevant features of each interval, and classify them into one of the three kinds of signals considered as most representative of this particular volcano. To do so, 1033 different kinds of 30-s signals were extracted and classified by a human expert. A feature extraction process was applied to obtain the main characteristics of each of them. This process was developed using criteria which have been shown by others to effectively classify seismic signals, based on the experience of a human expert. The classifier was implemented with a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network whose architecture and training process were optimized by means of a genetic algorithm. This technique searched for the most adequate MLP configuration to improve the classification performance, optimizing the number of hidden neurons, the transfer functions of the neurons, and the training algorithm. The optimization process also performed a feature selection to reduce the number of signal features, optimizing the number of network inputs. The results show that the optimized classifier reaches more than 93% exactitude. identifying the signals of each kind. The amplitude of the signals is the most important feature for its classification, followed by its frequency content. The described methodology can be used to classify more seismic signals to improve the study of the activity of this volcano or to extend the study to other active volcanoes of the region.  相似文献   

Meteorites: International law and regulations     

Max Gounelle  Matthieu Gounelle 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(12):2887-2901

Although meteorites are now considered as scientific objects, they still bear a strong and powerful symbolic meaning due to their extraterrestrial provenance. The present article focuses on their legal status, in other words the collection of rules, very diverse in nature, which are applicable to them. Despite a growing international market, the question of meteorites is often ignored or regarded as a detail in international relations and is rarely taken explicitly into account in negotiations and treaties. This relative neglect explains why a non‐State player, the Meteoritical Society, has taken methodological initiatives into meteoritic science and has effectively become a regulator of meteorite naming and acceptance, with a global scope. We show that to understand the legal status of meteorites, it is necessary to consider them under the prism of public international law, transnational law, and national law. We conclude that, despite the universality of meteorites as extraterrestrial objects, the variability of legal rules applicable to meteorites depending onto which territory they fall or where they are found. We note, however, that there is a trend toward regulatory uniformity in the scientific analysis of meteorites, which frames the practices of researchers and regulates traders’ activities. Finally, we contend that a meteorite remains a badly defined legal object, because it can be viewed under many angles: as an object susceptible to private appropriation, as a “common thing” (res communis), or as an element of national heritage.  相似文献   

Experimental impact cratering: A summary of the major results of the MEMIN research unit     

Thomas Kenkmann  Alex Deutsch  Klaus Thoma  Matthias Ebert  Michael H. Poelchau  Elmar Buhl  Eva-Regine Carl  Andreas N. Danilewsky  Georg Dresen  Anja Dufresne  Nathanaël Durr  Lars Ehm  Christian Grosse  Max Gulde  Nicole Güldemeister  Christopher Hamann  Lutz Hecht  Stefan Hiermaier  Tobias Hoerth  Astrid Kowitz  Falko Langenhorst  Bernd Lexow  Hanns-Peter Liermann  Robert Luther  Ulrich Mansfeld  Dorothee Moser  Manuel Raith  Wolf Uwe Reimold  Martin Sauer  Frank Schäfer  Ralf Thomas Schmitt  Frank Sommer  Jakob Wilk  Rebecca Winkler  Kai Wünnemann 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(8):1543-1568

This paper reviews major findings of the Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact Crater Research Network (MEMIN). MEMIN is a consortium, funded from 2009 till 2017 by the German Research Foundation, and is aimed at investigating impact cratering processes by experimental and modeling approaches. The vision of this network has been to comprehensively quantify impact processes by conducting a strictly controlled experimental campaign at the laboratory scale, together with a multidisciplinary analytical approach. Central to MEMIN has been the use of powerful two-stage light-gas accelerators capable of producing impact craters in the decimeter size range in solid rocks that allowed detailed spatial analyses of petrophysical, structural, and geochemical changes in target rocks and ejecta. In addition, explosive setups, membrane-driven diamond anvil cells, as well as laser irradiation and split Hopkinson pressure bar technologies have been used to study the response of minerals and rocks to shock and dynamic loading as well as high-temperature conditions. We used Seeberger sandstone, Taunus quartzite, Carrara marble, and Weibern tuff as major target rock types. In concert with the experiments we conducted mesoscale numerical simulations of shock wave propagation in heterogeneous rocks resolving the complex response of grains and pores to compressive, shear, and tensile loading and macroscale modeling of crater formation and fracturing. Major results comprise (1) projectile–target interaction, (2) various aspects of shock metamorphism with special focus on low shock pressures and effects of target porosity and water saturation, (3) crater morphologies and cratering efficiencies in various nonporous and porous lithologies, (4) in situ target damage, (5) ejecta dynamics, and (6) geophysical survey of experimental craters.  相似文献   

Prawn postlarvae fishing in coastal Bangladesh: Challenges for sustainable livelihoods   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nesar Ahmed  Max Troell  Edward H. Allison  James F. Muir 《Marine Policy》2010,34(2):218-227

Fishing for prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) postlarvae is a major contributor to the livelihoods of the coastal poor in Bangladesh, including women. A study of coastal livelihoods along the lower Pasur River in southwest Bangladesh indicates that on average 40% of total annual income comes from postlarvae fishing during the few months involved. However, indiscriminate fishing of wild postlarvae, with high levels of by-catch, has an impact on biodiversity in coastal ecosystems. This has provoked imposition of restrictions on postlarvae collection. The ban has, however, not been firmly enforced because of the lack of alternative livelihoods for coastal poor. A conceptual framework, drawn from an approach to poverty reduction known as the sustainable livelihoods approach, is applied to understanding the role of prawn postlarvae fishing. Evidence from this study suggests that postlarvae fishers faced a number of livelihood constraints, including poor livelihood assets. This paper concludes that wider livelihood options need to be found for postlarvae fishers to support their livelihoods.  相似文献   

Predicting suitable habitat for the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa (Scleractinia)     

Andrew J. Davies  Max Wisshak  James C. Orr  J. Murray Roberts   《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2008,55(8):1048-1062

Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables. L. pertusa was found at mean depths of 468 and 480 m on the regional and global scales and occupied a niche that included higher than average current speed and productivity, supporting the theory that their limited food supply is locally enhanced by currents. Most records occurred in areas with a salinity of 35, mean temperatures of 6.2–6.7  °C and dissolved oxygen levels of 6.0–6.2 ml l⁻¹. The majority of records were found in areas that were saturated with aragonite but had low concentration of nutrients (silicate, phosphate, and nitrate). Suitable habitat for L. pertusa was predicted using ENFA on a global and a regional scale that incorporated the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Regional prediction was reliable due to numerous presence points throughout the area, whereas global prediction was less reliable due to the paucity of presence data outside of the north-east Atlantic. However, the species niche was supported at each spatial scale. Predicted maps at the global scale reinforced the general consensus that the North Atlantic Ocean is a key region in the worldwide distribution of L. pertusa. Predictive modelling is an approach that can be applied to cold-water coral species to locate areas of suitable habitat for further study. It may also prove a useful tool to assist spatial planning of offshore marine protected areas. However, issues with eco-geographical datasets, including their coarse resolution and limited geographical coverage, currently restrict the scope of this approach.  相似文献   

Economic gains of liberalising access to fishing quotas within the European Union     

Jesper L. Andersen  Max Nielsen  Erik Lindebo 《Marine Policy》2009

This paper analyses the extent to which specialisation gains can be achieved by liberalising access to fishing quotas within the European Union (EU). Fishing quotas are today exchanged between EU member states at a rate of 4% of total turnover in EU fisheries. Germany, Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands are the most active. Only one fourth of these exchanges are permanent. With the management systems in EU fisheries differing among countries, comparative advantages in fisheries exist in member states with the best management practices. Hence, although positive but small specialisation gains exist in EU fisheries today, these gains might potentially be increased by liberalising access to fishing quotas and allowing transferability of quotas between individuals from different countries on a permanent basis. Increasing the gains might, however, affect relative stability.  相似文献   

Subdividing the Holocene Series/Epoch: formalization of stages/ages and subseries/subepochs,and designation of GSSPs and auxiliary stratotypes     

MIKE WALKER  Martin J. Head  John Lowe  Max Berkelhammer  Svante Bj rck  Hai Cheng  Les C. Cwynar  David Fisher  Vasileios Gkinis  Antony Long  Rewi Newnham  Sune Olander Rasmussen  Harvey Weiss 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(3):173-186

The Holocene, which currently spans ~11 700 years, is the shortest series/epoch within the geological time scale (GTS), yet it contains a rich archive of evidence in stratigraphical contexts that are frequently continuous and often preserved at high levels of resolution. On 14 June 2018, the Executive Committee of the International Union of Geological Sciences formally ratified a proposal to subdivide the Holocene into three stages/ages, along with their equivalent subseries/subepochs, each anchored by a Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP). The new stages are the Greenlandian (Lower/Early Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP2 ice core and dated at 11 700 a b2k (before 2000 CE); the Northgrippian (Middle Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP1 ice core and dated at 8236 a b2k; and the Meghalayan (Upper/Late Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in a speleothem from Mawmluh Cave, north‐eastern India, with a date of 4250 a b2k. We explain the nomenclature of the new divisions, describe the procedures involved in the ratification process, designate auxiliary stratotypes to support the GSSPs and consider the implications of the subdivision for defining the Anthropocene as a new unit within the GTS.  相似文献   

The influence of orbital parameters on the North American Monsoon system during the Last Interglacial Period     

Nadja Insel  Max Berkelhammer 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(4):638-648

The response of summer precipitation in the western United States to climate variability remains a subject of uncertainty. For example, palaeoclimate records indicate the North American Monsoon (NAM) was stronger and spatially more extensive during the Holocene, whereas recent modelling suggests a weakened NAM response to increasing temperatures. These illustrate diverging pictures of the NAM response to warming. Here, we examine summer precipitation in the southwestern US related to Last Interglacial insolation forcing. Using a high-resolution climate model, we find that Eemian insolation forcing results in overall wetter conditions throughout most of the southwestern US, but significantly drier than present conditions over Arizona. The overall wetter conditions are associated with a northward shift of the anticyclonic circulation aloft and increased moisture in the lower and mid-troposphere during the Eemian. Increased advection of Gulf of Mexico moisture is responsible for increasing precipitation in New Mexico and the northern edges of the NAM region. Drier conditions over Arizona are likely related to reduced local convection associated with reduced vertical moisture transport. These results highlight the spatial complexity of the NAM response to increasing radiative forcing and allow a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and variability in response to a warming climate.  相似文献   

Solar convection     

Åke Nordlund 《Solar physics》1985,100(1-2):209-235

The hydrodynamics of solar convection is reviewed. In particular, a discussion is given of convection on the scale of granulation; i.e., the energy carrying convection patterns in the solar surface layers, and its penetration into the stable layers of the solar photosphere. Convection on global and intermediate scales, and interaction with rotation and magnetic fields is discussed briefly.  相似文献