Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example     

Ida K. Westerberg  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1705-1713

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.  相似文献   

Insights into agricultural influences and weathering processes from major ion patterns          下载免费PDF全文

Robert van Geldern  Peter Schulte  Michael Mader  Alfons Baier  Johannes A.C. Barth  Tobias R. Juhlke  Kern Lee 《水文研究》2018,32(7):891-903

Karst areas and their catchments pose a great challenge for protection because fast conduit flow results in low natural attenuation of anthropogenic contaminants. Studies of the hydrochemistry of karst sources and river solutes are an important tool for securing and managing water resources. A study of the geochemical downriver evolution of the Wiesent River and its tributaries, located in a typical karst terrain, revealed unexpected downstream decreases of nitrate with maximum mean values of 30 mg/L at the source to minimum values of 18 mg/L near the river mouth. This trend persisted over the length of the river even though increased agricultural activities are evident in the downstream section of the catchment. This pattern is caused by fertilizer inputs via diffusive and fast conduits flow from karst lithology in the upstream area that may have reached the river's source even from beyond the hydrological catchment boundaries. Further downstream, these influences became diluted by tributary inputs that drain subcatchments dominated by claystone and sandstone lithologies that increased potassium and sulphate concentrations. Our findings indicate that bedrock geology remains the dominant control on the major ion chemistry of the Wiesent River and that agricultural influences are strongest near the headwaters despite increased land use further downstream, due to long‐term storage and accumulation in karst aquifers. This feature may not be unique to the Wiesent River system, as carbonates cover significant portions of the Earth's surface and subsequent work in other river systems could establish whether such patterns are ubiquitous worldwide.  相似文献   

Biostratigraphy and paleogeography of the southeast desert phosphorites of Jordan     

Belal S. Amireh  Joerg Mutterlose  Mazen N. Amaireh  Tobias Puettmann  Abdulkader M. Abed 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(15):425

Three sections from the Al-Hisa Phosphorite Formation (AHP) were measured in the southeastern desert of Jordan: Batn El-Ghoul, Nagb Etayyeg, and Zgaimat Al-Hasah. A fourth section, Wadi Arfa, is added from a previous work. The three sections differ from the typical AHP Formation in central Jordan by having highly reduced thicknesses, omission/non-deposition of the underlying formations, rarity of fossils, abundant sand, and their stratigraphic ages. A Paleocene-Early Eocene age, based on calcareous nannofossils, has been assigned to the AHP Formation of the sections studied in the southeast desert. This Paleocene-Early Eocene age is younger than the Early Maastrichtian age of the AHP deposits in central Jordan. The published ages of the phosphorite deposits in the eastern Mediterranean countries suggest a younging to the east due to an interplay between paleodepositional environments and plate tectonics (paleohigh formation). The minor phosphorite deposits of Turkey and Iran are not involved in the discussion because they were not part of the Afro-Arabian Plate or the later Arabian Plate. The abovementioned differences between the southeastern desert phosphorites and the central Jordan deposits are here explained by the formation of paleohighs on the Neo-Tethys seafloor during the Late Cretaceous-Eocene. These include the Sirhan Paleohigh where the southeast desert phosphorites were deposited. The formation of the highs was due to the compression associated first, with the subduction of the Afro-Arabian Plate, below the Eurasian Plate and later with their collision.  相似文献   

The resin sealed column (RESECO) setup for flow-through experiments on solid rocks under high temperature and high pore pressure conditions     

Grifka  Jasmin  Heinze  Thomas  Licha  Tobias 《Hydrogeology Journal》2022,30(4):1327-1336

Hydrogeology Journal - High-pressure flow-through experiments on solid rock samples are commonly conducted with experimental setups using a confining pressure to restrict the flow to the rock....  相似文献   

Snow interception modelling: Isolated observations have led to many land surface models lacking appropriate temperature sensitivities     

Jessica D. Lundquist  Susan Dickerson-Lange  Ethan Gutmann  Tobias Jonas  Cassie Lumbrazo  Dylan Reynolds 《水文研究》2021,35(7):e14274

When formulating a hydrologic model, scientists rely on parameterizations of multiple processes based on field data, but literature review suggests that more frequently people select parameterizations that were included in pre-existing models rather than re-evaluating the underlying field experiments. Problems arise when limited field data exist, when “trusted” approaches do not get reevaluated, and when sensitivities fundamentally change in different environments. The physics and dynamics of snow interception by conifers is just such a case, and it is critical to simulation of the water budget and surface albedo. The most commonly used interception parameterization is based on data from four trees from one site, but results from this field study are not directly transferable to locations with relatively warmer winters, where the dominant processes differ dramatically. Here, we combine a literature review with model experiments to demonstrate needed improvements. Our results show that the choice of model form and parameters can vary the fraction of snow lost through interception by as much as 30%. In most simulations, the warming of mean winter temperatures from −7 to 0°C reduces the modelled fraction of snow under the canopy compared to the open, but the magnitude of simulated decrease varies from about 10% to 40%. The range of results is even larger when considering models that neglect the melting of in-canopy snow in higher-humidity environments where canopy sublimation plays less of a role. Thus, we recommend that all models represent canopy snowmelt and include representation of increased loading due to increased adhesion and cohesion when temperatures rise from −3 to 0°C. In addition to model improvements, field experiments across climates and forest types are needed to investigate how to best model the combination of dynamically changing forest cover and snow cover to better understand and predict changes to albedo and water supplies.  相似文献   

Comparison of environmental tracers including organic micropollutants as groundwater exfiltration indicators into a small river of a karstic catchment     

Clarissa Glaser  Marc Schwientek  Tobias Junginger  Benjamin Silas Gilfedder  Sven Frei  Martina Werneburg  Christian Zwiener  Christiane Zarfl 《水文研究》2020,34(24):4712-4726

Understanding groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions is vital for water management in karstic catchments due to its impact on water quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the applicability of seven environmental tracers to quantify and localize groundwater exfiltration into a small, human-impacted karstic river system. Tracers were selected based on their emission source to the surface water either as (a) dissolved, predominantly geogenic compounds (radon-222, sulphate and electrical conductivity) or (b) anthropogenic compounds (predominantly) originating from wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents (carbamazepine, tramadol, sodium, chloride). Two contrasting sampling approaches were compared (a) assuming steady-state flow conditions and (b) considering the travel time of the water parcels (Lagrangian sampling) through the catchment to account for diurnal changes in inflow from the WWTP. Spatial variability of the concentrations of all tracers indicated sections of preferential groundwater inflow. Lagrangian sampling techniques seem highly relevant for capturing dynamic concentration patterns of WWTP-derived compounds. Quantification of GW inflow with the finite element model FINIFLUX, based on observed in-stream Rn activities led to plausible fluxes along the investigated river reaches (0.265 m³ s⁻¹), while observations of other natural or anthropogenic environmental tracers produced less plausible water fluxes. Important point sources of groundwater exfiltration can be ascribed to locations where the river crosses geological fault lines. This indicates that commonly applied concepts describing groundwater–surface water interactions assuming diffuse flow in porous media are difficult to transfer to karstic river systems whereas concepts from fractured aquifers may be more applicable. In general, this study helps selecting the best suited hydrological tracer for GW exfiltration and leads to a better understanding of processes controlling groundwater inflow into karstic river systems.  相似文献   

Is there a superior conceptual groundwater model structure for baseflow simulation?          下载免费PDF全文

Michael Stoelzle  Markus Weiler  Kerstin Stahl  Andreas Morhard  Tobias Schuetz 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1301-1313

Previous work has shown that streamflow response during baseflow conditions is a function of storage, but also that this functional relationship varies among seasons and catchments. Traditionally, hydrological models incorporate conceptual groundwater models consisting of linear or non‐linear storage–outflow functions. Identification of the right model structure and model parameterization however is challenging. The aim of this paper is to systematically test different model structures in a set of catchments where different aquifer types govern baseflow generation processes. Nine different two‐parameter conceptual groundwater models are applied with multi‐objective calibration to transform two different groundwater recharge series derived from a soil‐atmosphere‐vegetation transfer model into baseflow separated from streamflow data. The relative performance differences of the model structures allow to systematically improve the understanding of baseflow generation processes and to identify most appropriate model structures for different aquifer types. We found more versatile and more aquifer‐specific optimal model structures and elucidate the role of interflow, flow paths, recharge regimes and partially contributing storages. Aquifer‐specific recommendations of storage models were found for fractured and karstic aquifers, whereas large storage capacities blur the identification of superior model structures for complex and porous aquifers. A model performance matrix is presented, which highlights the joint effects of different recharge inputs, calibration criteria, model structures and aquifer types. The matrix is a guidance to improve groundwater model structures towards their representation of the dominant baseflow generation processes of specific aquifer types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A network theory approach for a better understanding of overland flow connectivity          下载免费PDF全文

Rens J. H. Masselink  Tobias Heckmann  Arnaud J. A. M. Temme  Niels S. Anders  Harm P. A. Gooren  Saskia D. Keesstra 《水文研究》2017,31(1):207-220

Hydrological connectivity describes the physical coupling (linkages) of different elements within a landscape regarding (sub‐) surface flows. A firm understanding of hydrological connectivity is important for catchment management applications, for example, habitat and species protection, and for flood resistance and resilience improvement. Thinking about (geomorphological) systems as networks can lead to new insights, which has also been recognized within the scientific community, seeing the recent increase in the use of network (graph) theory within the geosciences. Network theory supports the analysis and understanding of complex systems by providing data structures for modelling objects and their linkages, and a versatile toolbox to quantitatively appraise network structure and properties. The objective of this study was to characterize and quantify overland flow connectivity dynamics on hillslopes in a humid sub‐Mediterranean environment by using a combination of high‐resolution digital‐terrain models, overland flow sensors and a network approach. Results showed that there are significant differences between overland flow connectivity on agricultural areas and semi‐natural shrubs areas. Significant positive correlations between connectivity and precipitation characteristics were found. Significant negative correlations between connectivity and soil moisture were found, most likely because of soil water repellency and/or soil surface crusting. The combination of structural networks and dynamic networks for determining potential connectivity and actual connectivity proved a powerful tool for analysing overland flow connectivity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Real-time retrieval of precipitable water vapor from GPS and BeiDou observations   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Cuixian Lu  Xingxing Li  Tobias Nilsson  Tong Ning  Robert Heinkelmann  Maorong Ge  Susanne Glaser  Harald Schuh 《Journal of Geodesy》2015,89(9):843-856

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Experimental impact cratering: A summary of the major results of the MEMIN research unit          下载免费PDF全文

Thomas Kenkmann  Alex Deutsch  Klaus Thoma  Matthias Ebert  Michael H. Poelchau  Elmar Buhl  Eva-Regine Carl  Andreas N. Danilewsky  Georg Dresen  Anja Dufresne  Nathanaël Durr  Lars Ehm  Christian Grosse  Max Gulde  Nicole Güldemeister  Christopher Hamann  Lutz Hecht  Stefan Hiermaier  Tobias Hoerth  Astrid Kowitz  Falko Langenhorst  Bernd Lexow  Hanns-Peter Liermann  Robert Luther  Ulrich Mansfeld  Dorothee Moser  Manuel Raith  Wolf Uwe Reimold  Martin Sauer  Frank Schäfer  Ralf Thomas Schmitt  Frank Sommer  Jakob Wilk  Rebecca Winkler  Kai Wünnemann 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(8):1543-1568

This paper reviews major findings of the Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact Crater Research Network (MEMIN). MEMIN is a consortium, funded from 2009 till 2017 by the German Research Foundation, and is aimed at investigating impact cratering processes by experimental and modeling approaches. The vision of this network has been to comprehensively quantify impact processes by conducting a strictly controlled experimental campaign at the laboratory scale, together with a multidisciplinary analytical approach. Central to MEMIN has been the use of powerful two-stage light-gas accelerators capable of producing impact craters in the decimeter size range in solid rocks that allowed detailed spatial analyses of petrophysical, structural, and geochemical changes in target rocks and ejecta. In addition, explosive setups, membrane-driven diamond anvil cells, as well as laser irradiation and split Hopkinson pressure bar technologies have been used to study the response of minerals and rocks to shock and dynamic loading as well as high-temperature conditions. We used Seeberger sandstone, Taunus quartzite, Carrara marble, and Weibern tuff as major target rock types. In concert with the experiments we conducted mesoscale numerical simulations of shock wave propagation in heterogeneous rocks resolving the complex response of grains and pores to compressive, shear, and tensile loading and macroscale modeling of crater formation and fracturing. Major results comprise (1) projectile–target interaction, (2) various aspects of shock metamorphism with special focus on low shock pressures and effects of target porosity and water saturation, (3) crater morphologies and cratering efficiencies in various nonporous and porous lithologies, (4) in situ target damage, (5) ejecta dynamics, and (6) geophysical survey of experimental craters.  相似文献