Why delaying emission reductions is a gamble     

Steffen Kallbekken  Nathan Rive 《Climatic change》2007,82(1-2):27-45

In the debate on the timing of greenhouse gas emissions reductions the aspect of political feasibility has often been missing. We introduce this aspect and show that, if we decide to delay emissions reductions, and the environmental effectiveness of global mitigation efforts is to remain the same in terms of temperature change, we must be willing and able to undertake much more substantial emission reductions than with early action. Even under conservative assumptions on initial political feasibility (maximum 0.25% year-on-year reductions), a 20-year delay means that we must reduce emissions at an annual rate that is 5 to 11 times greater than with early climate action. Our capacity for technological progress, political change and the inertia of the socio-economic system gives us reason to be concerned about our ability to achieve such higher rates of emission reductions. If we are not able to achieve such higher rates, delaying action will inevitably result in higher temperatures in 2100. Unless we are willing to accept higher temperatures, choosing to delay climate action is a gamble that political feasibility will increase over time as a result of the delay itself.  相似文献   

The clustering of K∼20 galaxies in 17 radio galaxy fields     

Nathan Roche  Steve Eales  & Hans Hippelein 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,295(4):946-958

We investigate the angular correlation function, ο(θ), of the galaxies detected in the 2.1-μm K ' band in 17 fields (101.5 arcmin² in total), each containing a z ∼1.1 radio galaxy. There is a significant detection of galaxy clustering at a limit of K ∼20, with a ο(θ) amplitude similar to that estimated by Carlberg et al. at K =21.5. The ο(θ) amplitudes of these K -limited samples are higher than expected from the faint galaxy clustering in the blue and red passbands, but consistent with a pure luminosity evolution model if clustering is stable (ε=0) and the correlation function of early-type galaxies is steeper than that of spirals.
We do not detect a significant cross-correlation between the radio galaxies and the other galaxies in these fields. The upper limits on the cross-correlation are consistent with a mean clustering environment of Abell class 0 for z ∼1.1 radio galaxies, similar to that observed for radio galaxies at z ∼0.5, but would argue against an Abell class 1 or richer environment. As Abell 0 clustering around the radio galaxies would not significantly increase the ο(θ) amplitude of galaxies in these fields, stable clustering with a steep ξ( r ) for E/S0 galaxies appears to remain the most likely interpretation of the ο(θ) amplitude.
At K ≤20, the number of galaxy–galaxy pairs of 2–3 arcsec separation exceeds the random expectation by a factor of 2.15±0.26. The excess of close pairs is comparable to that previously reported for R -band data, and consistent with a ∼(1+ z )² evolution of the galaxy merger rate.  相似文献   

Petrology of filicudi,aeolian archipelago     

L. Villari  S. Nathan 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1978,41(2):81-96

Volcanic rocks on the island of Filicudi are typical of the cale-alkaline association of the Aeolian archipelago, and range in composition from basalt to high-K andesite. All specimens contain abundant phenocrystic plagioclase (cores of An_82–97, rims becoming progressively more sodic with increasing Differentiation Index), clinopyroxene, and magnetite; the most basic samples contain olivine, which is replaced by orthopyroxene at around D.I.=44. SiO₂ generally increases with time, and this in conjunction with the continuity in mineralogy suggests that the lavas are the differentiation products of a single batch of magma. Least-squares mixing calculations are consistent with a shallow fractional model, as is the variation in trace element abundances.  相似文献   

Fine‐scale diet of the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) using DNA‐based analysis of faeces          下载免费PDF全文

Kristian J. Peters  Kathy Ophelkeller  Nathan J. Bott  Bruce E. Deagle  Simon N. Jarman  Simon D. Goldsworthy 《Marine Ecology》2015,36(3):347-367

We applied DNA‐based faecal analysis to determine the diet of female Australian sea lions (n = 12) from two breeding colonies in South Australia. DNA dietary components of fish and cephalopods were amplified using the polymerase chain reaction and mitochondrial DNA primers targeting the short (~100 base pair) section of the 16S gene region. Prey diversity was determined by sequencing ~50 amplicons generated from clone libraries developed for each individual. Faecal DNA was also combined and cloned from multiple individuals at each colony and fish diversity determined. Diets varied between individuals and sites. Overall, DNA analysis identified a broad diversity of prey comprising 23 fish and five cephalopod taxa, including many species not previously described as prey of the Australian sea lion. Labridae (wrasse), Monacanthidae (leatherjackets) and Mullidae (goat fish) were important fish prey taxa. Commonly identified cephalopods were Octopodidae (octopus), Loliginidae (calamary squid) and Sepiidae (cuttlefish). Comparisons of fish prey diversity determined by pooling faecal DNA from several samples provided a reasonable but incomplete resemblance (55–71%) to the total fish diversity identified across individual diets at each site. Interpretation of diet based on the recovery of prey hard‐parts identified one cephalopod beak (Octopus sp.) and one fish otolith (Parapriacanthus elongatus). The present study highlights the value of DNA‐based analyses and their capabilities to enhance information of trophic interactions.  相似文献   

<Superscript>10</Superscript>Be, <Superscript>18</Superscript>O and radiogenic isotopic constraints on the origin of adakitic signatures: a case study from Solander and Little Solander Islands,New Zealand     

Fiona?V.?FoleyEmail author  Simon?Turner  Tracy?Rushmer  John?T.?Caulfield  Nathan?R.?Daczko  Paul?Bierman  Matthew?Robertson  Craig?D.?Barrie  Adrian?J.?Boyce 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(3):1048

Subduction-related Quaternary volcanic rocks from Solander and Little Solander Islands, south of mainland New Zealand, are porphyritic trachyandesites and andesites (58.20–62.19 wt% SiO₂) with phenocrysts of amphibole, plagioclase and biotite. The Solander and Little Solander rocks are incompatible element enriched (e.g. Sr ~931–2,270 ppm, Ba ~619–798 ppm, Th ~8.7–21.4 ppm and La ~24.3–97.2 ppm) with MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic signatures. Isotopically similar quench-textured enclaves reflect mixing with intermediate (basaltic-andesite) magmas. The Solander rocks have geochemical affinities with adakites (e.g. high Sr/Y and low Y), whose origin is often attributed to partial melting of subducted oceanic crust. Solander sits on isotopically distinct continental crust, thus excluding partial melting of the lower crust in the genesis of the magmas. Furthermore, the incompatible element enrichments of the Solander rocks are inconsistent with partial melting of newly underplated mafic lower crust; reproduction of their major element compositions would require unrealistically high degrees of partial melting. A similar argument precludes partial melting of the subducting oceanic crust and the inability to match the observed trace element patterns in the presence of residual garnet or plagioclase. Alternatively, an enriched end member of depleted MORB mantle source is inferred from Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic compositions, trace element enrichments and εHf ? 0 CHUR in detrital zircons, sourced from the volcanics. ¹⁰Be and Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic systematics are inconsistent with significant sediment involvement in the source region. The trace element enrichments and MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic characteristics of the Solander rocks require a strong fractionation mechanism to impart the high incompatible element concentrations and subduction-related (e.g. high LILE/HFSE) geochemical signatures of the Solander magmas. Trace element modelling shows that this can be achieved by very low degrees of melting of a peridotitic source enriched by the addition of a slab-derived melt. Subsequent open-system fractionation, involving a key role for mafic magma recharge, resulted in the evolved andesitic adakites.  相似文献   

Contrasting geochemical signatures on land from the Middle and Late Permian extinction events     

Nathan D. Sheldon  Ramananda Chakrabarti  Gregory J. Retallack  Roger M. H. Smith 《Sedimentology》2014,61(6):1812-1829

The end of the Palaeozoic is marked by two mass‐extinction events during the Middle Permian (Capitanian) and the Late Permian (Changhsingian). Given similarities between the two events in geochemical signatures, such as large magnitude negative δ¹³C anomalies, sedimentological signatures such as claystone breccias, and the approximate contemporaneous emplacement of large igneous provinces, many authors have sought a common causal mechanism. Here, a new high‐resolution continental record of the Capitanian event from Portal Mountain, Antarctica, is compared with previously published Changhsingian records of geochemical signatures of weathering intensity and palaeoclimatic change. Geochemical means of discriminating sedimentary provenance (Ti/Al, U/Th and La/Ce ratios) all indicate a common provenance for the Portal Mountain sediments and associated palaeosols, so changes spanning the Capitanian extinction represent changes in weathering intensity rather than sediment source. Proxies for weathering intensity chemical index of alteration, ?W and rare earth element accumulation all decline across the Capitanian extinction event at Portal Mountain, which is in contrast to the increased weathering recorded globally at the Late Permian extinction. Furthermore, palaeoclimatic proxies are consistent with unchanging or cooler climatic conditions throughout the Capitanian event, which contrasts with Changhsingian records that all indicate a significant syn‐extinction and post‐extinction series of greenhouse warming events. Although both the Capitanian and Changhsingian event records indicate significant redox shifts, palaeosol geochemistry of the Changhsingian event indicates more reducing conditions, whereas the new Capitanian record of reduced trace metal abundances (Cr, Cu, Ni and Ce) indicates more oxidizing conditions. Taken together, the differences in weathering intensity, redox and the lack of evidence for significant climatic change in the new record suggest that the Capitanian mass extinction was not triggered by dyke injection of coal‐beds, as in the Changhsingian extinction, and may instead have been triggered directly by the Emeishan large igneous province or by the interaction of Emeishan basalts with platform carbonates.  相似文献   

EXPLORING SPATIAL FAMILIARITY*     

Nathan Gale  Reginald G. Golledge  William C. Halperin  Helen Couclelis 《The Professional geographer》1990,42(3):299-313

Spatial familiarity is a natural language concept that has no well-defined technical interpretation. We explore here some possible dimensions of the concept, provide subjective measurements of the dimensions, and evaluate their independence. The four dimensions examined are locational knowledge, visual recognition, name identification, and interaction frequency. We suggest that both cognitive and behavioral dimensions are embedded in the concept of spatial familiarity and must be part of the meaning of the concept and of any attempt to make it operational.  相似文献   

Bias in hydraulic head measurements from multilevel vibrating-wire piezometers with excessively permeable backfill     

Young  Nathan L.  Lemieux  Jean-Michel  Locat  Pascal  Demers  Denis  Delottier  Hugo  Mony  Laura 《Hydrogeology Journal》2022,30(4):1337-1344

Hydrogeology Journal - An extensive network of multilevel vibrating-wire piezometers (VWP) was recently created to monitor the spatial and temporal variation of pore pressure (and hydraulic head)...  相似文献   

What can ecological science tell us about opportunities for carbon sequestration on arid rangelands in the United States?     

Kayje Booker  Lynn Huntsinger  James W. Bartolome  Nathan F. Sayre  William Stewart 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):240-251

Scientific interest in carbon sequestration on rangelands is largely driven by their extent, while the interest of ranchers in the United States centers on opportunities to enhance revenue streams. Rangelands cover approximately 30% of the earth's ice-free land surface and hold an equivalent amount of the world's terrestrial carbon. Rangelands are grasslands, shrublands, and savannas and cover 312 million hectares in the United States. On the arid and semi-arid sites typical of rangelands annual fluxes are small and unpredictable over time and space, varying primarily with precipitation, but also with soils and vegetation. There is broad scientific consensus that non-equilibrium ecological models better explain the dynamics of such rangelands than equilibrium models, yet current and proposed carbon sequestration policies and associated grazing management recommendations in the United States often do not incorporate this developing scientific understanding of rangeland dynamics. Carbon uptake on arid and semi-arid rangelands is most often controlled by abiotic factors not easily changed by management of grazing or vegetation. Additionality may be impossible to achieve consistently through management on rangelands near the more xeric end of a rangeland climatic gradient. This point is illustrated by a preliminary examination of efforts to develop voluntary cap and trade markets for carbon credits in the United States, and options including payment for ecosystem services or avoided conversion, and carbon taxation. A preliminary analysis focusing on cap and trade and payment for avoided conversion or ecosystem services illustrates the misalignment between policies targeting vegetation management for enhanced carbon uptake and non-equilibrium carbon dynamics on arid United States rangelands. It is possible that current proposed carbon policy as exemplified by carbon credit exchange or offsets will result in a net increase in emissions, as well as investment in failed management. Rather than focusing on annual fluxes, policy and management initiatives should seek long-term protection of rangelands and rangeland soils to conserve carbon, and a broader range of environmental and social benefits.  相似文献   

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios     

Kristie?L.?EbiEmail author  Jessica?Hartman  Nathan?Chan  John?Mcconnell  Michael?Schlesinger  John?Weyant 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):375-393

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.  相似文献