Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York,UK (1200–2000)     

Neil Macdonald  Andrew R. Black 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1152-1162

Abstract

The reassessment of flood risk at York, UK, is pertinent in light of major flooding in November 2000, and heightened concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood level readings from 1877 and a wealth of documentary records dating back as far as 1263 AD give the City of York a long and rich history of flood records. This extended flood record provides an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a time scale not normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates flood frequency at York, considering the strengths and weaknesses in estimates resulting from four contrasting methods of analysis and their corresponding data: (a) single-site analysis of gauged annual maxima; (b) pooled analysis of multi-site gauged annual maxima; (c) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks, and (d) analysis of only the very largest peaks using a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Use of the historical information was found to yield risk estimates which were lower and considered to be more credible than those achieved using gauged records alone.

Citation Macdonald, N. & Black, A. R. (2010) Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York, UK (1200–2000). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1152–1162.  相似文献   

A whole-basin, mass-balance approach to paleolimnology   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daniel R. Engstrom  Neil L. Rose 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2013,49(3):333-347

Lake sediments record the flux of materials (nutrients, pollutants, particulates) through a lake system both qualitatively, as changes in the composition of geochemical and biological tracers, as well as quantitatively, through changes in their rate of burial. Burial rates provide a direct link to contemporary (neo-) limnological studies as well as management efforts aimed at load reductions, but are difficult to reconstruct accurately from single cores owing to the spatial and temporal variability of sediment deposition in most lakes. The accurate determination of whole-lake burial rates from analysis of multiple cores, though requiring more effort per lake, can help resolve such problems and improve our understanding of sediment heterogeneity at multiple scales. Partial solutions to these problems also include focusing corrections based on ²¹⁰Pb flux, co-evaluation of concentration profiles, trend analysis using multiple lakes, and trend replication based on a small number of cores from the same lake. Recent multi-core studies demonstrate that no single core site faithfully records the whole-lake time-resolved input of materials, but that as few as five well-placed cores can provide a reliable record of whole-lake sediment flux for morphometrically simple basins. Lake-wide sediment fluxes can be coupled with reconstructed outflow losses to calculate historical changes in watershed and atmospheric loading of nutrients, metals, and other constituents. The ability of paleolimnology to accurately assess the sedimentary flux and extend the period of reference into the distant past represents an important contribution to the understanding of biogeochemical processes and their response to human and natural disturbance.  相似文献   

Introduction to ‘A celebration of Prof Rick Battarbee’s contributions to paleolimnology’     

Jonathan A. Holmes  Viv Jones  Anson W. Mackay  Neil L. Rose 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2013,49(3):311-312

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Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations     

Deo  Anil  Chand  Savin S.  Ramsay  Hamish  Holbrook  Neil J.  McGree  Simon  Magee  Andrew  Bell  Samuel  Titimaea  Mulipola  Haruhiru  Alick  Malsale  Philip  Mulitalo  Silipa  Daphne  Arieta  Prakash  Bipen  Vainikolo  Vaiola  Koshiba  Shirley 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3967-3993

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

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Palaeoclimatic reconstruction from Lateglacial (Younger Dryas Chronozone) cirque glaciers in Snowdonia,North Wales     

Jacob M. Bendle  Neil F. Glasser 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2012,123(1):130-145

The cirques of Snowdonia, North Wales were last occupied by glacier ice during the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC), c. 12.9–11.7 ka. New mapping presented here indicates 38 small YDC cirque glaciers formed in Snowdonia, covering a total area of 20.74 km². Equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for these glaciers, calculated using an area–altitude balance ratio (AABR) approach, ranged from 380 to 837 m asl. A northeastwards rise in YDC ELAs across Snowdonia is consistent with southwesterly snow-bearing winds. Regional palaeoclimate reconstructions indicate that the YDC in North Wales was colder and drier than at present. Palaeotemperature and annual temperature range estimates, derived from published palaeoecological datasets, were used to reconstruct values of annual accumulation and ‘winter balance plus summer precipitation’ using a degree-day model (DDM) and non-linear regression function, respectively. The DDM acted as the best-estimate for stadial precipitation and yielded values between 2073 and 2687 mm a^?1 (lapse rate: 0.006 °C m^?1) and 1782–2470 mm a^?1 (lapse rate: 0.007 °C m^?1). Accounting for the potential input of windblown and avalanched snow onto former glacier surfaces, accumulation values dropped to between 1791 and 2616 mm a^?1 (lapse rate: 0.006 °C m^?1) and 1473–2390 mm a^?1 (lapse rate: 0.007 °C m^?1). The spatial pattern of stadial accumulation suggests a steep precipitation gradient and provides verification of the northeastwards rise in ELAs. Glaciers nearer the coast of North Wales were most responsive to fluctuations in climate during the YDC, responding to sea-ice enforced continentality during the coldest phases of the stadial and to abrupt warming at the end of the stadial.  相似文献   

Testing resilience thinking in a poverty context: Experience from the Niger River basin     

Christophe Béné  Louisa Evans  David Mills  Solomon Ovie  Aminu Raji  Ahmadu Tafida  Amaga Kodio  Famory Sinaba  Pierre Morand  Jacques Lemoalle  Neil Andrew 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(4):1173-1184

Resilience thinking is an important addition to the range of frameworks and approaches that can be used to understand and manage complex social–ecological systems like small-scale fisheries. However, it is yet to lead to better environmental or development outcomes for fisheries stakeholders in terms of food security, improved livelihoods and ecological sustainability. This paper takes an empirical approach by focusing on the fundamentals of resilience thinking to evaluate its usefulness in developing relevant management interventions in small-scale fisheries in the Niger River Basin in West Africa. The paper presents the outputs of a participatory assessment exercise where both fishery communities and local experts were involved at two different scales. The resilience frame used was designed to facilitate the identification of socially defined thresholds that help delineate the desirability of the current system configuration and provides a diagnosis framework that tailors management solutions to problems in local context. The analysis highlights some key contributions from resilience thinking to the challenge of diagnosis in small-scale fisheries management in developing countries, as well as important contributions that emerge from taking a pragmatic and critical approach to its application.  相似文献   

Forest–savanna–morichal dynamics in relation to fire and human occupation in the southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) during the last millennia     

Encarni Montoya  Valentí Rull  Nathan D. Stansell  Mark B. Abbott  Sandra Nogué  Broxton W. Bird  Wilmer A. Díaz 《Quaternary Research》2011,76(3):335-344

The southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) holds a particular type of neotropical savanna characterized by the local occurrence of morichales (Mauritia palm swamps), in a climate apparently more suitable for rain forests. We present a paleoecological analysis of the last millennia of Lake Chonita (4°39′N–61°0′W, 884 m elevation), based on biological and physico-chemical proxies. Savannas dominated the region during the last millennia, but a significant vegetation replacement occurred in recent times. The site was covered by a treeless savanna with nearby rainforests from 3640 to 2180 cal yr BP. Water levels were higher than today until about 2800 cal yr BP. Forests retreated since about 2180 cal yr BP onwards, likely influenced by a higher fire incidence that facilitated a dramatic expansion of morichales. The simultaneous appearance of charcoal particles and Mauritia pollen around 2000 cal yr BP supports the potential pyrophilous nature of this palm and the importance of fire for its recent expansion. The whole picture suggests human settlements similar to today – in which fire is an essential element – since around 2000 yr ago. Therefore, present-day southern Gran Sabana landscapes seem to have been the result of the synergy between biogeographical, climatic and anthropogenic factors, mostly fire.  相似文献   

Comment on “Formation of Thetis Deep metal-rich sediments in the absence of brines,Red Sea” by     

Neil C. Mitchell  Mark Schmidt  Marco Ligi 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2011

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Deep-water carbonate concentrations in the southwest Pacific     

Helen C. Bostock  Bruce W. HaywardHelen L. Neil  Kim I. CurrieGavin B. Dunbar 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2011,58(1):72-85

We have compiled carbonate chemistry and sedimentary CaCO₃% data for the deep-waters (>1500 m water depth) of the southwest (SW) Pacific region. The complex topography in the SW Pacific influences the deep-water circulation and affects the carbonate ion concentration ([CO₃2−]), and the associated calcite saturation horizon (CSH, where ??_calcite=1). The Tasman Basin and the southeast (SE) New Zealand region have the deepest CSH at ∼3100 m, primarily influenced by middle and lower Circumpolar Deep Waters (m or lCPDW), while to the northeast of New Zealand the CSH is ∼2800 m, due to the corrosive influence of the old North Pacific deep waters (NPDW) on the upper CPDW (uCPDW). The carbonate compensation depth (CCD; defined by a sedimentary CaCO₃ content of <20%), also varies between the basins in the SW Pacific. The CCD is ∼4600 m to the SE New Zealand, but only ∼4000 m to the NE New Zealand. The CaCO₃ content of the sediment, however, can be influenced by a number of different factors other than dissolution; therefore, we suggest using the water chemistry to estimate the CCD. The depth difference between the CSH and CCD (??Z_CSH−CCD), however, varies considerably in this region and globally. The global ??Z_CSH−CCD appears to expand with increase in age of the deep-water, resulting from a shoaling of the CSH. In contrast the depth of the chemical lysocline (??_calcite=0.8) is less variable globally and is relatively similar, or close, to the CCD determined from the sedimentary CaCO₃%. Geochemical definitions of the CCD, however, cannot be used to determine changes in the paleo-CCD. For the given range of factors that influence the sedimentary CaCO₃%, an independent dissolution proxy, such as the foraminifera fragmentation % (>40%=foraminiferal lysocline) is required to define a depth where significant CaCO₃ dissolution has occurred back through time. The current foraminiferal lysocline for the SW Pacific region ranges from 3100-3500 m, which is predictably just slightly deeper than the CSH. This compilation of sediment and water chemistry data provides a CaCO₃ dataset for the present SW Pacific for comparison with glacial/interglacial CaCO₃ variations in deep-water sediment cores, and to monitor future changes in [CO₃2−] and dissolution of sedimentary CaCO₃ resulting from increasing anthropogenic CO₂.  相似文献   

The strengthening East Australian Current, its eddies and biological effects — an introduction and overview     

Iain M. Suthers  Jock W. YoungMark E. Baird  Moninya RoughanJason D. Everett  Gary B. BrassingtonMaria Byrne  Scott A. CondieJason R. Hartog  Christel S. HasslerAlistair J. Hobday  Neil J. HolbrookHamish A. Malcolm  Peter R. OkePeter A. Thompson  Ken Ridgway 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2011,58(5):538-546

The poleward flowing East Australian Current (EAC) is characterised by its separation from the coast, 100-200 nautical miles north of Sydney, to form the eastward flowing Tasman Front and a southward flowing eddy field. The separation zone greatly influences coastal ecosystems for the relatively narrow continental shelf (only 15-50 km wide), particularly between 32-34°S. In this region the continental shelf has a marked shift in the seasonal temperature-salinity relationship and elevated surface nitrate concentrations. This current parallels the portion of the coast where Australia’s population is concentrated and has a long history of scientific research. However, understanding of physical and biological processes driven by the EAC, particularly in linking circulation to ecosystems, is limited. In this special issue of 16 papers on the EAC, we examine the effects of climatic wind-stress forced ocean dynamics on EAC transport variability and coastal sea level, from ENSO to multi-decadal time scales; eddy formation and structure; fine scale connectivity and larval retention. Comparisons with the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current on Australia’s west coast show differences in ecosystem productivity that can be attributed to the underlying physics in each region. On average there is double the chlorophyll a concentration on the east coast than the west. In comparison to the Leeuwin, the EAC may have less local retention of larvae and act as a partial barrier to onshore transport, which may also be related to the local spawning and early life history of small pelagic fish on each coast. Inter-annual variations in the EAC transport produce a detectable sea-level signal in Sydney Harbour, which could provide a useful fisheries index as does the Fremantle sea level and Leeuwin Current relationship. The EAC’s eddy structure and formation by the EAC are examined. A particular cold-core eddy is shown to have a “tilt” towards the coast, and that during a rotation the flow of particles may rise up to the euphotic zone and then down beneath. In a warm-core eddy, surface flooding is shown to produce a new shallower surface mixed layer and promote algal growth. An assessment of plankton data from 1938-1942 showed that the local, synoptic conditions had to be incorporated before any comparison with the present. There are useful relationships of water mass characteristics in the Tasman Sea and separation zone with larval fish diversity and abundance, as well as with long-line fisheries. These fisheries-pelagic habitat relationships are invaluable for fisheries management, as well as for climate change assessments.There is further need to examine the EAC influence on rainfall, storm activity, dust deposition, and on the movements by fish, sharks and whales. The Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) has provided new infrastructure to determine the changing behaviour of the EAC and its bio-physical interaction with the coasts and estuaries. The forecasting and hindcasting capability developed under the Bluelink project has provided a new tool for data synthesis and dynamical analysis. The impact of a strengthening EAC and how it influences the livelihoods of over half the Australian population, from Brisbane to Sydney, Hobart and Melbourne, is just being realised.  相似文献