排序方式： 共有28条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Deo Anil Chand Savin S. Ramsay Hamish Holbrook Neil J. McGree Simon Magee Andrew Bell Samuel Titimaea Mulipola Haruhiru Alick Malsale Philip Mulitalo Silipa Daphne Arieta Prakash Bipen Vainikolo Vaiola Koshiba Shirley 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3967-3993
Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.
相似文献2.
Anna E. van Yperen John M. Holbrook Miquel Poyatos‐Mor Cody Myers Ivar Midtkandal 《Basin Research》2021,33(1):513-543
The adequate documentation and interpretation of regional‐scale stratigraphic surfaces is paramount to establish correlations between continental and shallow marine strata. However, this is often challenged by the amalgamated nature of low‐accommodation settings and control of backwater hydraulics on fluvio‐deltaic stratigraphy. Exhumed examples of full‐transect depositional profiles across river‐to‐delta systems are key to improve our understanding about interacting controlling factors and resultant stratigraphy. This study utilizes the ~400 km transect of the Cenomanian Mesa Rica Sandstone (Dakota Group, USA), which allows mapping of down‐dip changes in facies, thickness distribution, fluvial architecture and spatial extent of stratigraphic surfaces. The two sandstone units of the Mesa Rica Sandstone represent contemporaneous fluvio‐deltaic deposition in the Tucumcari sub‐basin (Western Interior Basin) during two regressive phases. Multivalley deposits pass down‐dip into single‐story channel sandstones and eventually into contemporaneous distributary channels and delta‐front strata. Down‐dip changes reflect accommodation decrease towards the paleoshoreline at the Tucumcari basin rim, and subsequent expansion into the basin. Additionally, multi‐storey channel deposits bound by erosional composite scours incise into underlying deltaic deposits. These represent incised‐valley fill deposits, based on their regional occurrence, estimated channel tops below the surrounding topographic surface and coeval downstepping delta‐front geometries. This opposes criteria offered to differentiate incised valleys from flood‐induced backwater scours. As the incised valleys evidence relative sea‐level fall and flood‐induced backwater scours do not, the interpretation of incised valleys impacts sequence stratigraphic interpretations. The erosional composite surface below fluvial strata in the continental realm represents a sequence boundary/regional composite scour (RCS). The RCS’ diachronous nature demonstrates that its down‐dip equivalent disperses into several surfaces in the marine part of the depositional system, which challenges the idea of a single, correlatable surface. Formation of a regional composite scour in the fluvial realm throughout a relative sea‐level cycle highlights that erosion and deposition occur virtually contemporaneously at any point along the depositional profile. This contradicts stratigraphic models that interpret low‐accommodation settings to dominantly promote bypass, especially during forced regressions. Source‐to‐sink analyses should account for this in order to adequately resolve timing and volume of sediment storage in the system throughout a complete relative sea‐level cycle. 相似文献
3.
K. W. Helen Lau Keith E. Louden Sharon Deemer Jeremy Hall John R. Hopper Brian E. Tucholke W. Steven Holbrook Hans Christian Larsen † 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(1):157-170
New multichannel seismic reflection data were collected over a 565 km transect covering the non-volcanic rifted margin of the central eastern Grand Banks and the Newfoundland Basin in the northwestern Atlantic. Three major crustal zones are interpreted from west to east over the seaward 350 km of the profile: (1) continental crust; (2) transitional basement and (3) oceanic crust. Continental crust thins over a wide zone (∼160 km) by forming a large rift basin (Carson Basin) and seaward fault block, together with a series of smaller fault blocks eastwards beneath the Salar and Newfoundland basins. Analysis of selected previous reflection profiles (Lithoprobe 85-4, 85-2 and Conrad NB-1) indicates that prominent landward-dipping reflections observed under the continental slope are a regional phenomenon. They define the landward edge of a deep serpentinized mantle layer, which underlies both extended continental crust and transitional basement. The 80-km-wide transitional basement is defined landwards by a basement high that may consist of serpentinized peridotite and seawards by a pair of basement highs of unknown crustal origin. Flat and unreflective transitional basement most likely is exhumed, serpentinized mantle, although our results do not exclude the possibility of anomalously thinned oceanic crust. A Moho reflection below interpreted oceanic crust is first observed landwards of magnetic anomaly M4, 230 km from the shelf break. Extrapolation of ages from chron M0 to the edge of interpreted oceanic crust suggests that the onset of seafloor spreading was ∼138 Ma (Valanginian) in the south (southern Newfoundland Basin) to ∼125 Ma (Barremian–Aptian boundary) in the north (Flemish Cap), comparable to those proposed for the conjugate margins. 相似文献
4.
Crustal and upper mantle seismic structure of the Australian Plate, South Island, New Zealand 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Anne Melhuish W. Steven Holbrook Fred Davey David A. Okaya Tim Stern 《Tectonophysics》2005,395(1-2):113-135
Seismic reflection and refraction data were collected west of New Zealand's South Island parallel to the Pacific–Australian Plate boundary. The obliquely convergent plate boundary is marked at the surface by the Alpine Fault, which juxtaposes continental crust of each plate. The data are used to study the crustal and uppermost mantle structure and provide a link between other seismic transects which cross the plate boundary. Arrival times of wide-angle reflected and refracted events from 13 recording stations are used to construct a 380-km long crustal velocity model. The model shows that, beneath a 2–4-km thick sedimentary veneer, the crust consists of two layers. The upper layer velocities increase from 5.4–5.9 km/s at the top of the layer to 6.3 km/s at the base of the layer. The base of the layer is mainly about 20 km deep but deepens to 25 km at its southern end. The lower layer velocities range from 6.3 to 7.1 km/s, and are commonly around 6.5 km/s at the top of the layer and 6.7 km/s at the base. Beneath the lower layer, the model has velocities of 8.2–8.5 km/s, typical of mantle material. The Mohorovicic discontinuity (Moho) therefore lies at the base of the second layer. It is at a depth of around 30 km but shallows over the south–central third of the profile to about 26 km, possibly associated with a southwest dipping detachment fault. The high, variable sub-Moho velocities of 8.2 km/s to 8.5 km/s are inferred to result from strong upper mantle anisotropy. Multichannel seismic reflection data cover about 220 km of the southern part of the modelled section. Beneath the well-layered Oligocene to recent sedimentary section, the crustal section is broadly divided into two zones, which correspond to the two layers of the velocity model. The upper layer (down to about 7–9 s two-way travel time) has few reflections. The lower layer (down to about 11 s two-way time) contains many strong, subparallel reflections. The base of this reflective zone is the Moho. Bi-vergent dipping reflective zones within this lower crustal layer are interpreted as interwedging structures common in areas of crustal shortening. These structures and the strong northeast dipping reflections beneath the Moho towards the north end of the (MCS) line are interpreted to be caused by Paleozoic north-dipping subduction and terrane collision at the margin of Gondwana. Deeper mantle reflections with variable dip are observed on the wide-angle gathers. Travel-time modelling of these events by ray-tracing through the established velocity model indicates depths of 50–110 km for these events. They show little coherence in dip and may be caused side-swipe from the adjacent crustal root under the Southern Alps or from the upper mantle density anomalies inferred from teleseismic data under the crustal root. 相似文献
5.
This paper explores the relationship between the complexity of the land surface energy balance parameterization and the simulation
of means, variances and extremes in a climate model. We used the BMRC climate model combined with the protocol of AMIP-II
to perform six ensemble simulations for each of four levels of surface energy balance complexity. Our results were then compared
with other AMIP-II results in terms of the mean, variance and extremes of temperatures and precipitation. In terms of the
zonally-averaged mean and the maximum temperatures and precipitation, the surface energy balance complexity did not systematically
affect the BMRC climate model results. The zonal minimum temperature was affected by the inclusion of tiling and/or a temporally
variable canopy conductance. We found no evidence that surface energy balance complexity affected the globally- or zonally-averaged
variances. Some quite large differences were identified in the probability density functions of maximum (10 K) and minimum
(4 K) temperature caused by surface tiling and/or the inclusion of a time-varying canopy conductance. With these included,
the model simulated a higher probability of cooler minima and warmer maxima and therefore a different diurnal temperature
range. Adding interception of precipitation led to an increase in the likelihood of more extreme precipitation. Thus, provided
interception, surface tiling and a time-variable stomatal conductance are included in a land surface model, the impact of
other uncertainties in the parameterization of the surface energy balance are unlikely to limit the use of climate models
for simulating changes in the extremes. Most published results indicating changes to precipitation and temperature extremes
due to increasing carbon dioxide are therefore unlikely to be significantly limited by uncertainty in how to parameterize
the surface energy balance. Given that the variations in surface energy balance complexity included in our experiments approximates
the range included in the AMIP-II models, we conclude that it this is unlikely to explain the differences found between the
AMIP-II simulations. This does not mean that AMIP-II differences are not caused to a significant degree by differences in
their respective LSMs, rather it limits the potential role of the land surface to non-surface energy balance components, or
components (such as carbon) that are not considered here. 相似文献
6.
Puget Sound is a fjord-like estuary and bottom-water intrusions are major circulation features which play a dominant role in the replacement of water below still depth. New observations on the inside and outside of the entrance sill show that, while intrusions occur during neap tides as previously thought, the onset of the intrusions is a results off fluctuations in the horizontal density gradient caused by salinity variations across the sill. Salinity changes outside the sill in the Strait of Juan de Fuca estuary appear to be the result of storms on the Pacific Coast causing reversals of surface flow and variations in deep flow more than 135 km from the coast. Previous observations have shown deep salinity variations midway along the straight, but these are the first to show this effect can penetrate the full length of the Strait causing near-bottom salinity variations of sufficient magnitude to influence flow into Puget Sound. This influence probably occurs from the onset of storms in autumn through subsidence in spring, although occasional large storms occur in summer. Although Puget Sound is more characteristic of a fjord, the simple model calculations here suggest similar processes may occur in lower-layer flow at the mouth of coastal plain estuaries. 相似文献
7.
Abstract During November 1976 to February 1977 near‐surface wind, current and temperature measurements were made at three sites along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Strong tidal currents and major intrusions of warmer, fresher offshore coastal water were superimposed upon the estuarine circulation of near‐surface seaward flow. The r.m.s. amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal currents were ～30 cms‐1 and 30–47 cm s‐1, respectively. The vector‐mean flow at 4 m‐depth was seaward and decreased in speed from 28 cm s‐1 at 74 km from the entrance to 9 cm s‐1 at 11 km from the entrance. On five occasions intrusions of 1–3 C warmer northeast Pacific coastal water occurred for durations of 1–10 days. The 25 cm s‐1 up‐strait speed of the intrusive lens agreed to within 20% of the gravity current speed computed from Benjamin's (1968) hydraulic model. The near‐surface currents associated with the intrusions and the southerly coastal winds were significantly correlated, indicating that the intrusions were initiated when shoreward Ekman currents advected Pacific coastal water into the Strait. The reversals were not significantly coherent with the along‐strait sea surface slope measured along the north side of the Strait nor were they strongly related to local wind forcing. 相似文献
8.
Geophysical constraints on deep weathering and water storage potential in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 W. Steven Holbrook Clifford S. Riebe Mehrez Elwaseif Jorden L. Hayes Kyle Basler‐Reeder Dennis L. Harry Armen Malazian Anthony Dosseto Peter C. Hartsough Jan W. Hopmans 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(3):366-380
The conversion of bedrock to regolith marks the inception of critical zone processes, but the factors that regulate it remain poorly understood. Although the thickness and degree of weathering of regolith are widely thought to be important regulators of the development of regolith and its water‐storage potential, the functional relationships between regolith properties and the processes that generate it remain poorly documented. This is due in part to the fact that regolith is difficult to characterize by direct observations over the broad scales needed for process‐based understanding of the critical zone. Here we use seismic refraction and resistivity imaging techniques to estimate variations in regolith thickness and porosity across a forested slope and swampy meadow in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Inferred seismic velocities and electrical resistivities image a weathering zone ranging in thickness from 10 to 35 m (average = 23 m) along one intensively studied transect. The inferred weathering zone consists of roughly equal thicknesses of saprolite (P‐velocity < 2 km s?1) and moderately weathered bedrock (P‐velocity = 2–4 km s?1). A minimum‐porosity model assuming dry pore space shows porosities as high as 50% near the surface, decreasing to near zero at the base of weathered rock. Physical properties of saprolite samples from hand augering and push cores are consistent with our rock physics model when variations in pore saturation are taken into account. Our results indicate that saprolite is a crucial reservoir of water, potentially storing an average of 3 m3 m?2 of water along a forested slope in the headwaters of the SSCZO. When coupled with published erosion rates from cosmogenic nuclides, our geophysical estimates of weathering zone thickness imply regolith residence times on the order of 105 years. Thus, soils at the surface today may integrate weathering over glacial–interglacial fluctuations in climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Jordan D. Leone W. Steven Holbrook Clifford S. Riebe Jon Chorover Ty P.A. Ferré Bradley J. Carr Russell P. Callahan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(12):2998-3010
The porous near-surface layer of the Earth's crust – the critical zone – constitutes a vital reservoir of water for ecosystems, provides baseflow to streams, guides recharge to deep aquifers, filters contaminants from groundwater, and regulates the long-term evolution of landscapes. Recent work suggests that the controls on regolith thickness include climate, tectonics, lithology, and vegetation. However, the relative paucity of observations of regolith structure and properties at landscape scales means that theoretical models of critical zone structure are incompletely tested. Here we present seismic refraction and electrical resistivity surveys that thoroughly characterize subsurface structure in a small catchment in the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, USA, where slope-aspect effects on regolith structure are expected based on differences in vegetation. Our results show a stark contrast in physical properties and inferred regolith thickness on opposing slopes, but in the opposite sense of that expected from environmental models and observed vegetation patterns. Although vegetation (as expressed by normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) is denser on the north-facing slope, regolith on the south-facing slope is four times thicker (as indicated by lower seismic velocities and resistivities). This contrast cannot be explained by variations in topographic stress or conventional hillslope morphology models. Instead, regolith thickness appears to be controlled by metamorphic foliation: regolith is thicker where foliation dips into the topography, and thinner where foliation is nearly parallel to the surface. We hypothesize that, in this catchment, hydraulic conductivity and infiltration capacity control weathering: infiltration is hindered and regolith is thin where foliation is parallel to the surface topography, whereas water infiltrates deeper and regolith is thicker where foliation intersects topography at a substantial angle. These results suggest that bedrock foliation, and perhaps by extension sedimentary layering, can control regolith thickness and must be accounted for in models of critical zone development. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Felicity S. Graham Jaclyn N. Brown Clothilde Langlais Simon J. Marsland Andrew T. Wittenberg Neil J. Holbrook 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2399-2414
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring coupled phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean that relies on ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. The Bjerknes stability index (BJ index), derived from the mixed-layer heat budget, aims to quantify the ENSO feedback process in order to explore the linear stability properties of ENSO. More recently, the BJ index has been used for model intercomparisons, particularly for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. This study investigates the effectiveness of the BJ index in representing the key ENSO ocean feedbacks—namely the thermocline, zonal advective, and Ekman feedbacks—by evaluating the amplitudes and phases of the BJ index terms against the corresponding heat budget terms from which they were derived. The output from Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Ocean Model (a global ocean/sea ice flux-forced model) is used to calculate the heat budget in the equatorial Pacific. Through the model evaluation process, the robustness of the BJ index terms are tested. We find that the BJ index overestimates the relative importance of the thermocline feedback to the zonal advective feedback when compared with the corresponding terms from the heat budget equation. The assumption of linearity between variables in the BJ index formulation is the primary reason for these differences. Our results imply that a model intercomparison relying on the BJ index to explain ENSO behavior is not necessarily an accurate quantification of dynamical differences between models that are inherently nonlinear. For these reasons, the BJ index may not fully explain underpinning changes in ENSO under global warming scenarios. 相似文献