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Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Robert Vautard Thomas Noël Laurent Li Mathieu Vrac Eric Martin Philippe Dandin Julien Cattiaux Sylvie Joussaume 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1419-1437
In order to fulfill the society demand for climate information at the spatial scale allowing impact studies, long-term high-resolution climate simulations are produced, over an area covering metropolitan France. One of the major goals of this article is to investigate whether such simulations appropriately simulate the spatial and temporal variability of the current climate, using two simulation chains. These start from the global IPSL-CM4 climate model, using two regional models (LMDz and MM5) at moderate resolution (15–20 km), followed with a statistical downscaling method in order to reach a target resolution of 8 km. The statistical downscaling technique includes a non-parametric method that corrects the distribution by using high-resolution analyses over France. First the uncorrected simulations are evaluated against a set of high-resolution analyses, with a focus on temperature and precipitation. Uncorrected downscaled temperatures suffer from a cold bias that is present in the global model as well. Precipitations biases have a season- and model-dependent behavior. Dynamical models overestimate rainfall but with different patterns and amplitude, but both have underestimations in the South-Eastern area (Cevennes mountains) in winter. A variance decomposition shows that uncorrected simulations fairly well capture observed variances from inter-annual to high-frequency intra-seasonal time scales. After correction, distributions match with analyses by construction, but it is shown that spatial coherence, persistence properties of warm, cold and dry episodes also match to a certain extent. Another aim of the article is to describe the changes for future climate obtained using these simulations under Scenario A1B. Results are presented on the changes between current and mid-term future (2021–2050) averages and variability over France. Interestingly, even though the same global climate model is used at the boundaries, regional climate change responses from the two models significantly differ. 相似文献
134.
Austin H. Becker Michele Acciaro Regina Asariotis Edgard Cabrera Laurent Cretegny Philippe Crist Miguel Esteban Andrew Mather Steve Messner Susumu Naruse Adolf K. Y. Ng Stefan Rahmstorf Michael Savonis Dong-Wook Song Vladimir Stenek Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695
With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation. 相似文献
135.
Yangting Lin Ahmed El Goresy Sen Hu Jianchao Zhang Philippe Gillet Yuchen Xu Jialong Hao Masaaki Miyahara Ziyuan Ouyang Eiji Ohtani Lin Xu Wei Yang Lu Feng Xuchao Zhao Jing Yang Shin Ozawa 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(12):2201-2218
Two petrographic settings of carbonaceous components, mainly filling open fractures and occasionally enclosed in shock‐melt veins, were found in the recently fallen Tissint Martian meteorite. The presence in shock‐melt veins and the deuterium enrichments (δD up to +1183‰) of these components clearly indicate a pristine Martian origin. The carbonaceous components are kerogen‐like, based on micro‐Raman spectra and multielemental ratios, and were probably deposited from fluids in shock‐induced fractures in the parent rock of Tissint. After precipitation of the organic matter, the rock experienced another severe shock event, producing the melt veins that encapsulated a part of the organic matter. The C isotopic compositions of the organic matter (δ13C = ?12.8 to ?33.1‰) are significantly lighter than Martian atmospheric CO2 and carbonate, providing a tantalizing hint for a possible biotic process. Alternatively, the organic matter could be derived from carbonaceous chondrites, as insoluble organic matter from the latter has similar chemical and isotopic compositions. The presence of organic‐rich fluids that infiltrated rocks near the surface of Mars has significant implications for the study of Martian paleoenvironment and perhaps to search for possible ancient biological activities on Mars. 相似文献
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An anomalous velocity cloud nearl=349°,b=+3°, was investigated by Cugnon (1968). The authors made a new set of observations in order to obtain a more complete picture of the feature, including the region originally out of Cugnon's limit of observation. A comparison with optical and radio observations was made and several possibilities of interpretation as to the nature of the object were analyzed. 相似文献
139.
Maxime Lion Béatrice Ledésert Frédéric Skoczylas Philippe Recourt Thierry Dubois 《地学学报》2004,16(6):351-357
Many poromechanical studies of rocks give little regard to the micropetrographic observation of their constituents. The aim of this study is to show how such a detailed study can help understand and provide more precision on the poromechanical behaviour of the material. The rock studied here is an oolitic limestone. Micropetrography reveals the nature of the constituents (calcite, mostly in the form of fine‐grained micrite), their abundance, their organization (micrite organized in ooids linked by a calcitic cement, small‐sized highly connected isotropic porosity, scarce unconnected porosity) and the structure of the rock (global isotropy, small heterogeneities due to sedimentological phenomena, no microcracks). Micropetrography completes the information obtained by poromechanics in that it allows the observation of elements deduced from macroscopical tests. The aim of this paper is to show the effect of microporosity on permeability and flow in a rock where microporous grains are in contact with each other. 相似文献
140.
Vincent?GuenardEmail author Philippe?Drobinski Jean-Luc?Caccia Bernard?Campistron Bruno?Bench 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,115(2):263-288
We investigate the mesoscale dynamics of the mistral through the wind profiler observations of the MAP (autumn 1999) and ESCOMPTE (summer 2001) field campaigns. We show that the mistral wind field can dramatically change on a time scale less than 3 hours. Transitions from a deep to a shallow mistral are often observed at any season when the lower layers are stable. The variability, mainly attributed in summer to the mistral/land–sea breeze interactions on a 10-km scale, is highlighted by observations from the wind profiler network set up during ESCOMPTE. The interpretations of the dynamical mistral structure are performed through comparisons with existing basic theories. The linear theory of R. B. Smith [Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 31, 1989, Academic Press, 1–41] and the shallow water theory [Schär, C. and Smith, R. B.: 1993a, J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1373–1400] give some complementary explanations for the deep-to-shallow transition especially for the MAP mistral event. The wave breaking process induces a low-level jet (LLJ) downstream of the Alps that degenerates into a mountain wake, which in turn provokes the cessation of the mistral downstream of the Alps. Both theories indicate that the flow splits around the Alps and results in a persistent LLJ at the exit of the Rhône valley. The LLJ is strengthened by the channelling effect of the Rhône valley that is more efficient for north-easterly than northerly upstream winds despite the north–south valley axis. Summer moderate and weak mistral episodes are influenced by land–sea breezes and convection over land that induce a very complex interaction that cannot be accurately described by the previous theories. 相似文献