Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector     

Marie Ekström  Natasha Kuruppu  Robert L. Wilby  Hayley J. Fowler  Francis H.S. Chiew  Suraje Dessai  William J. Young 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):115-129

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.  相似文献   

Late Holocene vertical land motion and relative sea‐level changes: lessons from the British Isles     

Ian Shennan  Glenn Milne  Sarah Bradley 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):64-70

Vertical land motion caused by continuing glacial isostatic adjustment is one of several important components of sea‐level change and is not limited just to previously glaciated regions. A national‐scale analysis for the British Isles shows an ellipse of present‐day relative uplift (relative sea‐level fall), ～1.2 mm a^?1, broadly centred on the deglaciated mountains of Scotland. The pattern of three foci of relative subsidence, ～1 mm a^?1, results from the additional interactions of the deglacial meltwater load on the Atlantic basin and the continental shelf, and the signal due to far‐field ice sheets. At a local scale, sediment compaction can more than double the rate of relative land subsidence. Relative land‐level change (the negative of relative sea‐level change) is not the same as vertical land motion. There is a spatial pattern in the difference between relative land‐level change and vertical land motion, with differences at present of approximately ?0.1 to ?0.3 mm a^?1 around the British Isles and +2.5 to ?1.5 mm a^?1 globally. For the wider scientific and user community, whether or not the differences are considered significant will depend upon the location, time frame and spatial scale of the study that uses such information. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Biogeography of the deep-sea galatheid squat lobsters of the Pacific Ocean     

Enrique Macpherson  Bertrand Richer de Forges  Kareen Schnabel  Sarah Samadi  Marie-Catherine Boisselier  Antoni Garcia-Rubies 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2010,57(2):228-238

We analyzed the distribution patterns of the galatheid squat lobsters (Crustacea, Decapoda, Galatheidae) of the Pacific Ocean. We used the presence/absence data of 402 species along the continental slope and continental rise (200–2000 m) obtained from 54 cruises carried out in areas around the Philippines, Indonesia, Solomon, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna and French Polynesia. The total number of stations was ca. 3200. We also used published data from other expeditions carried out in the Pacific waters, and from an exhaustive search of ca. 600 papers on the taxonomy and biogeography of Pacific species. We studied the existence of biogeographic provinces using multivariate analyses, and present data on latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of species richness, rate of endemism and the relationship between body sizes with the size of the geographic ranges. Latitudinal species richness along the Western and Eastern Pacific exhibited an increase from higher latitudes towards the Equator. Longitudinal species richness decreased considerably from the Western to the Central Pacific. Size frequency distribution for body size was strongly shifted toward small sizes and endemic species were significantly smaller than non-endemics. This study concludes that a clear separation exists between the moderately poor galatheid fauna of the Eastern Pacific and the rich Western and Central Pacific faunas. Our results also show that the highest numbers of squat lobsters are found in the Coral Sea (Solomon-Vanuatu-New Caledonia islands) and Indo-Malay-Philippines archipelago (IMPA). The distribution of endemism along the Pacific Ocean indicates that there are several major centres of diversity, e.g. Coral Sea, IMPA, New Zealand and French Polynesia. The high proportion of endemism in these areas suggests that they have evolved independently.  相似文献   

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system     

Jayant A. Sathaye  Larry L. Dale  Peter H. Larsen  Gary A. Fitts  Kevin Koy  Sarah M. Lewis  André Frossard Pereira de Lucena 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):499-511

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.  相似文献   

The Combined EMT/VES Geophysical Method for Siting Boreholes   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sarah Beeson  Charles R. C. Jonesa 《Ground water》1988,26(1):54-63

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Subsidence, extension and thermal history of the West African margin in Senegal     

Marie Vronique Latil Brun  Francis Lucazeau 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1988,90(2)

The subsidence of the Atlantic margin in Senegal clearly shows two rapid stages related to the formation of (1) the Central Atlantic during the early Jurassic (around 200 Ma), and (2) the Equatorial Atlantic during the Cretaceous (100 Ma). A simple model of extension is used to interpret the subsidence history and to derive the thermal evolution of this basin. The present-day gravity, bathymetry, bottom hole temperatures (BHT) in oil exploration boreholes and heat flow density are used to control the validity of the model. Two cross sections from the outcropping basement to oceanic crust are used, one in Casamance and the other one at the south to latitude of Dakar. The model can fully explain the first-order subsidence history as well as the present-day observations, and therefore can provide valuable information about the thermal evolution of sediments and about the structure of the continental crust along the margin. Comparisons with the opposite margin in North America (Blake Plateau and Carolina trough) indicate a rather different evolution (the North American margin did not undergo the second stage of rifting) and a different crustal structure (crustal thinning is less important on the African margin).  相似文献   

Numerical Modeling of Ground-Water Resource Management Options in Kuwait   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Amitabha Mukhopadhyay  Jawad Al-Sulaimi  Jean Marie Barrat 《Ground water》1994,32(6):917-928

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Volcanic hazards in the surroundings of Pico de Orizaba,eastern Mexico     

Ármann Höskuldsson  Jean Marie Cantagrel 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(3):197-219

Volcanic hazards from Pico de Orizaba volcano are presented here tor the first time. Some 1.3 million people live within the hazard zone, which in the most severe case would encompass the Mexican Gulf coast, east of the volcano. Three major cities located in the eastern part of the hazard zone account for 800 000 of this population and about 200 000 people live within a 20 km radius of the volcano. Probability calculations are presented as an attempt to quantify the hazards in the surroundings of the volcano. Such quantification can be of use in planning for future land use within the hazard zones.A zone of about 10 km radius centred on the top crater is a high hazard zone for gravity-driven flows and fallout ejecta. For large volume eruptions, the radius could be extended to 120 km to the east and 60 km to the west. The asymmetrical distribution is related to the topography of the volcano. Hazards from Pyroclastic-fall deposits are principally to the west of the volcano, since easterly winds are dominant in the area lava-flow hazards are greatest within a 10 km radius from the summit crater. Pyroclastic flow hazards are high up to 20 km from the volcano summit.In the case of reactivation of the volcano, melting of a glacier covering the summit of Pico de Orizaba having a volume equivalent to some 45 × 10⁹ litres of water, would produce lahars which would descend the flanks of the volcano.  相似文献   

Impact of agriculture on surface water in Ireland Part II. Prospects for the future     

Marie Sherwood 《Environmental Geology》1986,9(1):11-14

Agricultural activity is estimated to be responsible for only 6% (8 km) of the total length (135 km) of seriously polluted river channel, but for over 30% (294 km) of the slightly or moderately polluted length (963 km) of channel recorded to date in the state. This article examines the present sources and causes of pollution from agricultural wastes, and speculates on the likely direction of future trends. The most common sources of surface water pollution are animal manures, silage effluent, runoff from land following spreading, and fertilizers.  相似文献   

Sources of salinity in ground water from Jericho area, Jordan Valley     

Marie A  Vengosh A 《Ground water》2001,39(2):240-248

One of the major problems in the lower Jordan Valley is the increasing salinization (i.e., chloride content) of local ground water. The high levels of salinity limit the utilization of ground water for both domestic and agriculture applications. This joint collaborative study evaluates the sources and mechanisms for salinization in the Jericho area. We employ diagnostic geochemical fingerprinting methods to trace the potential sources of the salinity in (1) the deep confined subaquifer system (K2) of Lower Cenomanian age; (2) the upper subaquifer system (K1) of Upper Cenomanian and Turonian ages; and (3) the shallow aquifer system (Q) of Plio-Pleistocene ages. The chemical composition of the saline ground water from the two Cenomanian subaquifers (K1 and K2) point to a single saline source with Na/Cl approximately 0.5 and Br/Cl approximately 7 x 10(-3). This composition is similar to that of thermal hypersaline spring that are found along the western shore of the Dead Sea (e.g., En Gedi thermal spring). We suggest that the increasing salinity in both K1 and K2 subaquifers is derived from mixing with deep-seated brines that flow through the Rift fault system. The salinization rate depends on the discharge volume of the fresh meteoric water in the Cenomanian Aquifer. In contrast, the chemical composition of ground water from the Plio-Pleistocene Aquifer shows a wide range of Cl- (100-2000 mg/L), Na/Cl (0.4-1.0), Br/Cl (2-6 x 10(-3)), and SO4/Cl (0.01-0.4) ratios. These variations, together with the high SO4(2-), K+, and NO3- concentrations, suggest that the salinity in the shallow aquifer is derived from the combination of (1) upconing of deep brines as reflected by low Na/Cl and high Br/Cl ratios; (2) leaching of salts from the Lisan Formation within the Plio-Pleistocene Aquifer, as suggested by the high SO4(2-) concentrations; and (3) anthropogenic contamination of agriculture return flow and sewage effluents with distinctive high K+ (80 mg/L) and NO3- (80 mg/l) contents and low Br/Cl ratios (2 x 10(-3)). Our data demonstrates that the chemical composition of salinized ground water can be used to delineate the sources of salinity and hence to establish the conceptual model for explaining salinization processes.  相似文献