A bootstrap based space–time surveillance model with an application to crime occurrences     

Youngho Kim  Morton O’Kelly 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2008,10(2):141-165

This study proposes a bootstrap-based space–time surveillance model. Designed to find emerging hotspots in near-real time, the bootstrap based model is characterized by its use of past occurrence information and bootstrap permutations. Many existing space–time surveillance methods, using population at risk data to generate expected values, have resulting hotspots bounded by administrative area units and are of limited use for near-real time applications because of the population data needed. However, this study generates expected values for local hotspots from past occurrences rather than population at risk. Also, bootstrap permutations of previous occurrences are used for significant tests. Consequently, the bootstrap-based model, without the requirement of population at risk data, (1) is free from administrative area restriction, (2) enables more frequent surveillance for continuously updated registry database, and (3) is readily applicable to criminology and epidemiology surveillance. The bootstrap-based model performs better for space–time surveillance than the space–time scan statistic. This is shown by means of simulations and an application to residential crime occurrences in Columbus, OH, year 2000.  相似文献   

Estimating hydraulic conductivity using grain-size analyses, aquifer tests, and numerical modeling in a riverside alluvial system in South Korea   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jae-Yeol Cheong  Se-Yeong Hamm  Hyoung-Soo Kim  Eun-Joung Ko  Kyounghee Yang  Jeong-Hwan Lee 《Hydrogeology Journal》2008,16(6):1129-1143

Hydraulic conductivity (K) for an alluvial system in a riverbank filtration area in Changwon City, South Korea, has been studied using grain-size distribution, pumping and slug tests, and numerical modeling. The alluvial system is composed of layers: upper fine sand, medium sand, lower fine sand, and a highly conductive sand/gravel layer at the base. The geometric mean of K for the sand/gravel layer (9.89?×?10^?4 m s^?1), as determined by grain-size analyses, was 3.33 times greater than the geometric mean obtained from pumping tests (2.97?×?10^?4 m s^?1). The geometric mean of K estimates obtained from slug tests (3.08?×?10^?6 m s^?1) was one to two orders of magnitude lower than that from pumping tests and grain-size analyses. K estimates derived from a numerical model were compared to those derived from the grain-size methods, slug tests and pumping tests in order to determine the degree of deviation from the numerical model. It is considered that the K estimates determined by the slug tests resemble the uppermost part of the alluvial deposit, whereas the K estimates obtained by grain-size analyses and pumping tests are similar to those from the numerical model for the sand/gravel layer of the riverside alluvial system.  相似文献   

The contact binary system YY Eri     

E. Budding  C-H. Kim  O. Demircan  Z. Müyesseroğlu  K. Saijo  T. Banks 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,246(2):229-242

Relatively new and unanalysed photometric data-sets of the contact binary system YY Eri are presented. The light curves have been analysed using information limit optimization techniques, and the Binary Maker program of Bradstreet (1992).Comparison of the results allows insight into determinacy questions affecting the W UMa type of light curve, which relates to our general understanding of contact binaries. A limiting contact configuration cannot be ruled out on the basis of empirical data-analysis alone.Very careful analysis of the photospheric flux distribution over the surface of the Sun may help establish appropriate values of the gravity brightening parameter for cool dwarf stars. At present, however, empirical photometric information on contact binaries is non-discriminatory: i.e. alternative cosmogonies can find alternative support from available evidence. The implication is then for more and better observational data to allow better real independent parameter determination.  相似文献   

Oil-generation kinetics for organic facies with Type-II and -IIS kerogen in the Menilite Shales of the Polish Carpathians     

M.D. Lewan  M.J. Kotarba  D. Wi?c?aw 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2006,70(13):3351-3368

The Menilite Shales (Oligocene) of the Polish Carpathians are the source of low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt and some high-sulfur oils in the Carpathian Foredeep. These oil occurrences indicate that the high-sulfur oils in the Foredeep were generated and expelled before major thrusting and the low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt were generated and expelled during or after major thrusting. Two distinct organic facies have been observed in the Menilite Shales. One organic facies has a high clastic sediment input and contains Type-II kerogen. The other organic facies has a lower clastic sediment input and contains Type-IIS kerogen. Representative samples of both organic facies were used to determine kinetic parameters for immiscible oil generation by isothermal hydrous pyrolysis and S₂ generation by non-isothermal open-system pyrolysis. The derived kinetic parameters showed that timing of S₂ generation was not as different between the Type-IIS and -II kerogen based on open-system pyrolysis as compared with immiscible oil generation based on hydrous pyrolysis. Applying these kinetic parameters to a burial history in the Skole unit showed that some expelled oil would have been generated from the organic facies with Type-IIS kerogen before major thrusting with the hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters but not with the open-system pyrolysis kinetic parameters. The inability of open-system pyrolysis to determine earlier petroleum generation from Type-IIS kerogen is attributed to the large polar-rich bitumen component in S₂ generation, rapid loss of sulfur free-radical initiators in the open system, and diminished radical selectivity and rate constant differences at higher temperatures. Hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters are determined in the presence of water at lower temperatures in a closed system, which allows differentiation of bitumen and oil generation, interaction of free-radical initiators, greater radical selectivity, and more distinguishable rate constants as would occur during natural maturation. Kinetic parameters derived from hydrous pyrolysis show good correlations with one another (compensation effect) and kerogen organic-sulfur contents. These correlations allow for indirect determination of hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters on the basis of the organic-sulfur mole fraction of an immature Type-II or -IIS kerogen.  相似文献   

Study on the kinetics of iron oxide leaching by oxalic acid   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Suong Oh Lee  Tam Tran  Yi Yong Park  Seong Jun Kim  Myong Jun Kim   《International Journal of Mineral Processing》2006,80(2-4):144-152

The presence of iron oxides in clay or silica raw materials is detrimental to the manufacturing of high quality ceramics. Although iron has been traditionally removed by physical mineral processing, acid washing has been tested as it is more effective, especially for extremely low iron (of less than 0.1% w/w). However, inorganic acids such as sulphuric or hydrochloric acids easily contaminate the clay products with SO₄²⁻ and Cl⁻, and therefore should be avoided as much as possible. On the other hand, if oxalic acid is used, any acid left behind will be destroyed during the firing of the ceramic products. The characteristics of dissolution of iron oxides were therefore investigated in this study.The dissolution of iron oxides in oxalic acid was found to be very slow at temperatures within the range 25–60 °C, but its rate increases rapidly above 90 °C. The dissolution rate also increases with increasing oxalate concentration at the constant pH values set within the optimum range of pH2.5–3.0. At this optimum pH, the dissolution of fine pure hematite (Fe₂O₃) (105–140 μm) follows a diffusion-controlled shrinking core model. The rate expression expressed as 1 − (2 / 3)x − (1 − x)^2 / 3 where x is a fraction of iron dissolution was found to be proportional to [oxalate]^1.5.The addition of magnetite to the leach liquor at 10% w/w hematite was found to enhance the dissolution rate dramatically. Such addition of magnetite allows coarser hematite in the range 0.5–1.4 mm to be leached at a reasonable rate.  相似文献   

Yeosu dinosaur track sites of Korea: The youngest dinosaur track records in Asia     

In Sung Paik  Min Huh  Kye Hun Park  Koo Geun Hwang  Kyung Sik Kim  Hyun Joo Kim 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2006,28(4-6):457-468

Eighty two dinosaur trackways were newly discovered in Upper Cretaceous lacustrine deposits on islands in the vicinity of Yeosu, Korea. Most dinosaur tracks occur in marginal lake deposits with polygonal desiccation cracks. The dinosaur tracks at the Yeosu site include 65 ornithopod trackways, 16 theropod trackways and one sauropod trackway. The prevalence of ornithopod tracks and the limited occurrence of sauropod tracks at the Yeosu site evidently reflect decreased sauropod diversity in the Upper Cretaceous. All ornithopod trackways represent bipeds, and most of the ornithopod tracks are similar to Caririchnium from other sites of the Korean peninsula. All fossil wood specimens collected in the study area represent conifers (three species of cupressaceous and two species of taxodiaceous conifers, and a new species) except for one, which is a discotyledon. It is thus inferred that the southwestern part of the Korean Peninsula was primarily covered with mesic forests with taxodiaceous trees during the Late Cretaceous. The K–Ar age of the Yeosu tracksite is determined as 81–65 Ma (Camapnian to Maastrichtian). It indicates that the Yeosu track site contains the last records of dinosaurs living in Asia. Consequently, semi-arid palaeoclimatic conditions, together with a large lake as a persistent water source and rich vegetation of gymnosperm trees as food, resulted in the preservation of abundant dinosaur tracks in the Upper Cretaceous on the Korean Peninsula.  相似文献   

Structural similarity and variety at the tips in a wide range of strike–slip faults: a review     

Young‐Seog Kim  David J. Sanderson 《地学学报》2006,18(5):330-344

Strike–slip faults are often accompanied by a variety of structures, particularly at their tips. The zones of additional fracturing are classified as tip‐damage zones. These zones can be subdivided into several different damage patterns based on the nature and orientation of faults and fractures developed. Damage zones at the ends of small strike–slip faults (mode II tips) develop wing cracks, horsetail splays, antithetic faults, synthetic branch faults and solution surfaces. Similar tip‐damage patterns are also commonly observed at larger (regional) scales, but with a dominance of faulting over tensile cracks and solution surfaces. Wing cracks and horsetail splays developed at small‐scale faults are replaced by normal faults in large‐scale faults. Antithetic faults and synthetic branch faults are observed at small and large scales. Thrust faults are developed at large scales, in a similar pattern to solution surfaces at a small scale. All these structures may show slightly different angular relationships to the master fault at small and large scale, but develop in response similar stress distribution and mechanics around the fault. Thus, mode II tip‐damage zones show similar patterns over a wide range of fault scales.  相似文献   

Partial melting and P–T evolution of the Kodaikanal Metapelite Belt, southern India     

K. Sajeev  M. Santosh  H.S. Kim 《Lithos》2006,92(3-4):465-483

The Kodaikanal region of the Madurai Block in southern India exposes a segment of high-grade metamorphic rocks dominated by an aluminous garnet–cordierite–spinel–sillimanite–quartz migmatite suite, designated herein as the Kodaikanal Metapelite Belt (KMB). These rocks were subjected to extreme crustal metamorphism during the Late Neoproterozoic despite the lack of diagnostic ultrahigh-temperature assemblages. The rocks preserve microstructural evidence demonstrating initial-heating, dehydration melting to generate the peak metamorphic assemblage and later retrogression of the residual assemblages with remaining melt. The peak metamorphic assemblage is interpreted to be garnet + sillimanite + K-feldspar + spinel + Fe–Ti oxide + quartz + melt, which indicates pressure–temperature (P–T) conditions around 950–1000 °C and 7–8 kbar based on calculated phase diagrams. A clockwise P–T path is proposed by integrating microstructural information with pseudosections. We show that evidence for extreme crustal metamorphism at ultrahigh-temperature conditions can be extracted even in the cases where the rocks lack diagnostic ultrahigh-temperature mineral assemblages. Our approach confirms the widespread regional occurrence of UHT metamorphism in the Madurai Block during Gondwana assembly and point out the need for similar studies on adjacent continental fragments.  相似文献   

Deformation-induced garnet zoning   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hyeong Soo Kim   《Gondwana Research》2006,10(3-4):379-388

Compositional zoning patterns in garnet porphyroblasts from kyanite-bearing samples of the Devonian Littleton Formation, north-central Massachusetts, reveal complex patterns of growth that are related to multiple deformation and metamorphic events. Garnet porphyroblasts exhibit asymmetrical and irregular zoning patterns in X_Mn, X_Ca and Fe/(Fe + Mg). Zoning reversals in Mn and Fe/(Fe + Mg) and patch distribution in Ca appear to occur around the boundaries of the textural zones. Also, the compositions of the garnet at the textural boundaries are variable for all traverses. These observations suggest that the garnet zoning was not only modified from diffusion processes, but was also influenced by pre-existing microfabrics through the effects of preferential dissolution and resorption in partial disequilibrium. Relationships between chemical and textural truncations indicate that the zoning patterns of garnet were strongly modified from preferential dissolution and precipitation during the development of successive foliations that occurred in zones of high strain/stress (cleavage seams) and zones of low strain/stress, respectively.  相似文献   

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1     

Jo R?islien  Henning Omre 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(7):821-849

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.  相似文献