菏泽市气候极值的统计分布和再现期研究     

司奉泰  刘了凡 《气象科技》2013,41(6):1091-1094

科学合理地估算某地区的气候极值再现期是气象科技服务的重要内容,对当地经济建设具有重要意义。对菏泽市35种气候极值,分别都用皮尔逊Ⅲ型（Pearson Ⅲ）、对数正态（log normal）、耿贝尔（Gumbel）、韦伯（Weibull）分布函数进行拟合,用χ2检验选出最优者。使用选出的最优分布函数,用多个再现期算出再现期极值,列成表格以备气象服务中使用。通过最优分布函数的选取,对哪个类型的气候要素较多服从于哪个分布函数问题进行了研究。研究结果发现极端气温类型的极值和日数类型的极值较多服从于皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布,降水和其他类型的极值较多服从于耿贝尔分布。简要介绍了计算中使用Excel的技巧。  相似文献   

基于欧拉—拉格朗日模式的风沙跃移数值模拟方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

赵健  富宝锋  司高华  佘潇  李哲 《气象与减灾研究》2018,41(4):293-297

通过对沙粒的起动过程以及粒床相互作用机理进行参数化处理,利用计算流体力学方法与离散动力学模拟对风场和沙粒进行耦合迭代,建立了基于欧拉—拉格朗日模式的、适用于研究风沙流二维特征的风沙跃移数值模型。通过模拟沙粒集团以及单颗沙粒跃移运动的随机特征,有效描述了风沙流垂向以及沿程变化规律,并且能够输出任意时刻每颗沙粒的空间位置、速度和加速度等信息。输沙通量的空间分布与现场观测实验数据有较高的吻合度,摩阻风速和风速廓线两个宏观物理量的变化情况与风沙流形成和发展的物理实际相符,说明了本数值模型和计算方法的合理性。  相似文献   

Fred’s Flow (Canada) and Murphy Well (Australia): thick komatiitic lava flows with contrasting compositions,emplacement mechanisms and water contents     

Coralie?SiégelEmail author  Nicholas?Arndt  Stephen?Barnes  Anne-Laure?Henriot  Pierre?Haenecour  Vinciane?Debaille  Nadine?Mattielli 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(6):1084

Two Archaean komatiitic flows, Fred’s Flow in Canada and the Murphy Well Flow in Australia, have similar thicknesses (120 and 160 m) but very different compositions and internal structures. Their contrasting differentiation profiles are keys to determine the cooling and crystallization mechanisms that operated during the eruption of Archaean ultramafic lavas. Fred’s Flow is the type example of a thick komatiitic basalt flow. It is strongly differentiated and consists of a succession of layers with contrasting textures and compositions. The layering is readily explained by the accumulation of olivine and pyroxene in a lower cumulate layer and by evolution of the liquid composition during downward growth of spinifex-textured rocks within the upper crust. The magmas that erupted to form Fred’s Flow had variable compositions, ranging from 12 to 20 wt% MgO, and phenocryst contents from 0 to 20 vol%. The flow was emplaced by two pulses. A first ~20-m-thick pulse was followed by another more voluminous but less magnesian pulse that inflated the flow to its present 120 m thickness. Following the second pulse, the flow crystallized in a closed system and differentiated into cumulates containing 30–38 wt% MgO and a residual gabbroic layer with only 6 wt% MgO. The Murphy Well Flow, in contrast, has a remarkably uniform composition throughout. It comprises a 20-m-thick upper layer of fine-grained dendritic olivine and 2–5 vol% amygdales, a 110–120 m intermediate layer of olivine porphyry and a 20–30 m basal layer of olivine orthocumulate. Throughout the flow, MgO contents vary little, from only 30 to 33 wt%, except for the slightly more magnesian basal layer (38–40 wt%). The uniform composition of the flow and dendritic olivine habits in the upper 20 m point to rapid cooling of a highly magnesian liquid with a composition like that of the bulk of the flow. Under equilibrium conditions, this liquid should have crystallized olivine with the composition Fo94.9, but the most magnesian composition measured by electron microprobe in samples from the flow is Fo92.9. To explain these features, we propose that the parental liquid contained around 32 wt% MgO and 3 wt% H₂O. This liquid degassed during the eruption, creating a supercooled liquid that solidified quickly and crystallized olivine with non-equilibrium textures and compositions.  相似文献   

土壤硝酸盐氮的空间变异特征及影响因素分析     

张玉玲  司超群  陈志宇  初文磊  陈在星  王璜 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2018,48(1):241-251

为了掌握土壤中硝酸盐氮的空间变异性规律,为硝酸盐污染土壤控制与修复提供依据,以东北某农业灌区为例,利用地质统计方法进行土壤硝酸盐氮的空间变异特征及影响因素分析。研究结果表明：土壤硝酸盐氮的空间变异性显著,变异系数达到82.88%以上。第一层土壤硝酸盐氮在南北向空间上存在严格的自相关性,空间变异的结构性成分比例较高;第二、三层位土壤硝酸盐氮空间变化接近分形布朗运动;第四层位土壤硝酸盐氮在各方向上都具有较高的随机性。总体土壤硝酸盐氮质量分数由西向东逐渐递减,在浑河中下游以及细河附近土壤硝酸盐氮质量分数偏高。不同影响因素对于硝酸盐氮的空间变异特征影响不一致：土壤硝酸盐氮质量分数与有机质质量分数的空间分布趋势一致;不同土壤类型中,水田环境中土壤硝酸盐氮随着深度线性递减,而其他类型土壤中硝酸盐氮质量分数在表层向下递减后有一个回升现象,这与它们各自所处的环境特点有关,而地表壤土和砂土富含硝酸盐。  相似文献   

规划实施动态评估技术支撑体系研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

白晓辉  陈思  谭鲁渊  王红 《测绘通报》2017,(2):112-115

主要研究城乡规划实施动态评估技术支撑体系,将传统评估数据与城市动态数据相结合,将空间地理数据与社会属性数据相结合,将城市定量工具分析与专家经验分析相结合,最终实现了规划动态评估新模式;主要从城市发展现状动态监测、数据挖掘、动态评估工具及系统构建3个方面阐述城乡规划实施动态评估支持技术体系的关键技术及应用模式。  相似文献   

河北保定气象站长序列气温资料缺测记录插补和非均一性订正     

司鹏  郝立生  罗传军  曹晓岑  梁冬坡 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(1):41-51

基于多源的气温月值资料,在数据整合和初步质量控制基础上,同时采用标准化序列法和多元线性回归法对河北保定气象站1913-2014 年月平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料进行了插补。通过交叉检验法分析发现,标准化序列法插补得到的气温序列效果较好,并且气候统计特征与同区域周边站的研究结果更具一致性。利用惩罚最大F 检验（PMF）对插补后序列的均一性进行了检验,结果表明：通过插补得到的保定站百年气温月值序列的均一性相对较好,仅月平均最低气温序列存在2 个显著间断点,分别由同类型仪器的更换和台站迁移导致,研究中采用分位数匹配（QM）对其进行了订正,建立了保定站百年气温月值序列。通过与邻近单站及我国中东部区域均一化百年气温序列的综合对比显示,本文建立的保定站百年气温月值序列与邻近单站的相关性基本达到0.8 以上;从增暖趋势来看,保定站与中东部区域平均序列分别达0.121 ℃/10a、0.204 ℃/10a,基本在同一量级内：这一定程度上说明建立的保定站百年气温序列相对合理。  相似文献   

长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

易思  谭金凯  李梦雅  梁鑫鑫  王军 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(6):598-605

选择吴淞站和吕四站2个验潮站数据,通过统计学方法进行长江口海平面上升预测,从而构建了一套长江口地区较完备的海平面上升情景库：以2013年为基准年份,其最佳预测值的范围在2030年、2050年、2100年分别为50~217 mm,118~430 mm,256~1215 mm。以此情景库为基础,探究海平面上升变化对长江口滨海湿地的影响,结果表明：随着海平面上升值的增加,长江口滨海湿地的面积不断减少;在基于验潮站数据作趋势外推得到的情景下,湿地面积减少较平缓,而在考虑全球变暖背景的情景下,湿地面积减少迅速;且不论在何种情景下,时间尺度越大,湿地减少的面积越大。  相似文献   

Long-term variation in the salinity of the Southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass, 1976–2006     

Ang Li  Fei Yu  Guangcheng Si  Chuanjie Wei 《Journal of Oceanography》2017,73(3):321-331

This paper discusses the long-term variation in the salinity of the Southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (SYSCWM) and examines factors influencing the SYSCWM based on hydrographic datasets of the China National Standard section and the Korea Oceanographic Data Center. The mean salinity at the center of the SYSCWM showed a decreasing long-term trend. In empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the second EOF mode showed a similar long-term trend. The mean salinity of the center of the SYSCWM was related to the intrusion of saline water from the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC), the salinity of the source area of the YSWC, the evaporation minus precipitation (E–P) flux, and discharge from the Changjiang River. The decreasing salinity trend to the southwest of Cheju Island produced a freshening trend in the YSWC, resulting in a reduction in the salinity of the SYSCWM. The freshening trends of the water from the northwest Pacific and the South China Sea were seen as the reason for the decreasing salinity trend from the intrusion of water into the Yellow Sea (YS). The freshwater flux influenced the surface salinity and was brought to deep layers by strong mixing in winter. The mean E–P flux signal and Changjiang River discharge signal lagged the first principal component of the SYSCWM by approximately 5 months.  相似文献   

Multi-object approach and its application to adaptive water management under climate change   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Si Hong  Jun Xia  Junxu Chen  Long Wan  Like Ning  Wei Shi 《地理学报(英文版)》2017,27(3):259-274

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely (1) the water resources vulnerability (V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity (S) and resilience (C) of climate change impact on water resources, and (2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development (EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality (LI). To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function (VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability (V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment (DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.  相似文献   

基于迭代重加权最小二乘法的雨滴谱函数拟合研究北大核心          下载免费PDF全文

张宏群  陈思  周望  张晓宇  刘开辉 《气象科学》2022,42(2):235-243

传统的雨滴谱函数的拟合方法在不同的降水类型和不同分布函数下,可能存在拟合出来的雨滴谱函数与实际数据差异过大的情况,基于此问题,本文提出一种基于迭代重加权最小二乘法(Iterative Reweighed Least Square,IRLS)的雨滴谱函数拟合方法。利用Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪2019年7—10月在海南安定获得的225组层状云降水样本和110组对流云降水样本数据进行实验,通过不断更新权值,迭代计算,从而求出待估计参数。模拟结果表明了该方法应用在不同降水类型和不同分布函数下,对比阶矩法和最小二乘法得到的拟合优度都是最接近1的。  相似文献