Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter     

Hye-In Jeong  Doo Young Lee  Karumuri Ashok  Joong-Bae Ahn  June-Yi Lee  Jing-Jia Luo  Jae-Kyung E. Schemm  Harry H. Hendon  Karl Braganza  Yoo-Geun Ham 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(1-2):475-493

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982–2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.  相似文献   

Line-by-line radiative transfer model for infrared spectrum of AERI     

Kwang-Mog Lee  Joong-Hyun Park  Myoung-Hwan Ahn  Mi-Lim Ou  Yoonjae Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2012,48(2):135-143

Infrared radiance spectra measured in space or on the ground have been used for many applications, such as the retrieval of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. The Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) recently installed an Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) system at the Korea Global Atmosphere Watch Center (36°32??N, 125°19??E) in Anmyondo to measure the downward radiance spectra on the ground. For further utilization of such interferometeric radiance measurements, an accurate line-by-line radiative transfer model is required. This study introduces a line-by-line radiative transfer model developed at Kyungpook National University (KNU_LBL) and presents comparisons of spectra simulated using the KNU_LBL model and measured by the AERI system, that is installed inside a secure container. When compared with the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) radiative transfer codes, the KNU_LBL model provides nearly identical spectra for various model atmospheres. The simulated spectra are also in good agreement with the AERI spectra for clear sky conditions, and a further improvement is made when taking into account of the emissions and absorption by CO₂ and H₂O for the light path inside the container, even though the path is short.  相似文献   

Analytic hierarchy models for regional groundwater monitoring well allocation in Southeast Asian countries and South Korea     

Gyoo-Bum Kim  Joo-Sung Ahn  Atsunao Marui 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2009,59(2):325-338

Groundwater has played an important role in economic development in Southeast Asian countries, but some problems caused by nature or human actions such as contamination, over pumping, and land subsidence bring the necessity of more systematic groundwater monitoring wells. The analytical hierarchy process with pairwise comparison was used to allocate and organize the regional groundwater monitoring wells in five regions, Thailand, Cambodia, East/West Malaysia, and South Korea. Five different multi criteria decision models, which were composed of three primary criteria and eight secondary criteria, were developed based on the answers of the questionnaire from 76 groundwater experts in Thailand, 100 in Cambodia, 101 in East Malaysia, 87 in West Malaysia, and 93 in South Korea. It was revealed that the weights of model criteria for each country, which also represent relative importance on groundwater monitoring, were different according to the diverse groundwater situation. The most important factor to determine the number of monitoring well was ‘number of households using only groundwater as a water source’ for Thailand and South Korea, ‘number of contamination sources’ for Cambodia, ‘amount of groundwater use for drinking-water supply’ for East Malaysia, and ‘number of wells with contaminated water’ for West Malaysia.  相似文献   

Pore pressure model based on accumulated stress   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Taehyo Park  Duhee Park  Jae-Kwang Ahn 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2015,13(7):1913-1926

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Conceptualizing a multi-layered shingle aquifer model based on volcanic stratigraphy and water inflow to lava caves in Jeju Island,Korea     

Ung San Ahn  Dong-Chan Koh  Joonghyeok Heo  Byong-Wook Cho  Taehee Kim  Byoung-Woo Yum 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14316

Volcanic aquifers supply a substantial portion of water resources in many parts of the world, including islands, and their productivity depends strongly on volcanic stratigraphy, which exhibits considerable heterogeneity. We investigated water inflow to lava tube caves formed from numerous basaltic lava flows in the northeastern coastal area of Jeju Island after storm events and monitored relative inflow rates monthly over 1 year to characterize groundwater flow processes in the upper parts of volcanic aquifers, and to evaluate the applicability of the previous hydrogeological models proposed for the island. Considerable water inflow arose shortly after storms from exposed palaeosol layers on the walls of the caves. The monthly monitoring results showed that wall inflow associated with these palaeosol layers is substantial. In both cases, discharge from ceiling drips was much less and more temporally variable compared to wall inflow discharge. Water flowing into the caves was rapidly drained through the floor at all monitoring sites. The lateral extent of the palaeosol layers was identified using drill core logs near the cave and outcrops in the coastal area. Based on these results, we inferred that multiple perched aquifers are formed by low-permeability palaeosol layers between lava flows, which are connected by vertical flows at discontinuities in the palaeosol layer, eventually reaching the basal aquifer. This study revealed the water inflow processes observed in lava tube caves constrained by palaeosol layers, and established a hydrogeological conceptual model incorporating multiple perched aquifers in both coastal and mountainous areas associated with extensive palaeosol layers formed during volcanic hiatuses. This finding would help elucidate recharge, groundwater flow, and contaminant transport processes in many volcanic aquifers that are not adequately represented by the previous models, and contribute to better management of groundwater in those areas.  相似文献   

Dynamic characteristics of monthly rainfall in the Korean Peninsula under climate change   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Min Soo Kyoung  Hung Soo Kim  Bellie Sivakumar  Vijay P. Singh  Kyung Soo Ahn 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(4):613-625

Global climate change is one of the most serious issues we are facing today. While its exact impacts on our water resources are hard to predict, there is a general consensus among scientists that it will result in more frequent and more severe hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, droughts). Since rainfall is the primary input for hydrologic and water resource studies, assessment of the effects of climate change on rainfall is essential for devising proper short-term emergency measures as well as long-term management strategies. This is particularly the case for a region like the Korean Peninsula, which is susceptible to both floods (because of its mountainous terrain and frequent intense rainfalls during the short rainy season) and droughts (because of its smaller area, long non-rainy season, and lack of storage facilities). In view of this, an attempt is made in the present study to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall in the Korean Peninsula. More specifically, the dynamics of ‘present rainfall’ and ‘future rainfall’ at the Seoul meteorological station in the Han River basin are examined and compared; monthly scale is considered in both cases. As for ‘present rainfall,’ two different data sets are used: (1) observed rainfall for the period 1971–1999; and (2) rainfall for the period 1951–1999 obtained through downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs produced by the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research-Bergen Climate Model Version 2 (BCCR-BCM2.0) climate model with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) scenario. The ‘future rainfall’ (2000–2099) is obtained through downscaling of climate outputs projected by the BCCR-BCM2.0 with the A2 emission scenario. For downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs to basin-scale rainfall, a K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) technique is used. Examination of the nature of rainfall dynamics is made through application of four methods: autocorrelation function, phase space reconstruction, correlation dimension, and close returns plot. The results are somewhat mixed, depending upon the method, as to whether the rainfall dynamics are chaotic or stochastic; however, the dynamics of the future rainfall seem more on the chaotic side than on the stochastic side, and more so when compared to that of the present rainfall.  相似文献   

Formation mechanisms of illite,chlorite and mixed-layer illite-chlorite in Triassic volcanogenic sediments from the Southland Syncline,New Zealand     

Jung Ho Ahn  Donald R. Peacor  Douglas S. Coombs 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1988,99(1):82-89

Clay minerals from the three principal kinds of zeolitic sediments from the type area for zeolite facies alteration, the Triassic Murihiku Supergroup, Southland, New Zealand, have been studied by TEM. Bentonitic tuff consists largely of smectite and heulandite with minor illite; they occur as replacements of glass shards and are inferred to be direct alteration products of tuff alteration. Both analcime- and laumontite-rich tuffs contain chlorite, illite and mixed-layer illite-chlorite, including 11 mixed-layer sequences. Subhedral to euhedral phyllosilicate crystal shapes and other textural features imply that phyllosilicates crystallized from solution derived in part by dissolution of precursor smectite. Intralayer transitions involving illite and chlorite are inferred to be products of crystallization rather than direct alteration and replacement. Petrographically similar bentonitic and analcimized tuffs overlap each other in the stratigraphic section, supporting earlier observations that there is no systematic change in smectite relative to the illite plus chlorite derived from smectite in sections up to 8.5 km thick. The data imply that smectite may be metastable relative to illite plus chlorite. Permeability and fluid chemistry are inferred to be as significant as temperature in promoting reactions in clay minerals as well as zeolites during burial metamorphism.Contribution No. 436, from The Mineralogical Laboratory, Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109  相似文献   

Clay minerals and geochemistry of the bottom sediments in the northwestern East China Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jeungsu YOUN Shouye YANG Yong Ahn PARK 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2007,25(3):235-246

Clay minerals of 34 sediments collected from the northwestern continental shelf of the East China Sea have been determined by X-ray diffraction analysis. The clay mineral distribution is mainly controlled by the sediment source and the dominant circulation pattern. The predominant clay mineral in our study area is illite comprising more than 67% of the whole clay fraction. The highest concentration of illite (>68%) is found in the southeastern offshore parts beyond the reach of terrigenous input from the Jeju Island. It means that these illites are largely transported by the Kuroshio Current from the South China Sea (SCS). Smectite is highly concentrated in the northwest middle part and in the outer-shelf mud patch. It seems to be due to the high supply of smectite transported from China where fine-grained sediments are discharged from modern and ancient Huanghe (Yellow) River. The relatively high abundant kaolinite is likely derived from the Changjiang (Yangtze) River via the Taiwan Warm Current. In contrast, large amounts of chlorite and high chlorite/kaolinite ratios occur in the northwestern area, reflecting the transportation by the Yellow Sea Coastal Current from the southern Yellow Sea. The discrimination diagrams clearly show that the sediments in the northwestern East China Sea are ultimately sourced from Chinese rivers, especially from the Huanghe River, whereas the sediment in the northeast part might come from the Jeju Island. The muddy sediments of the Changjiang River’s submerged delta have much lower 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.716 2–0.718 0) than those of the Shandong Peninsular mud wedge (0.721 6–0.724 9), which are supposed to be originated from the Huanghe River, suggesting the distribution pattern of 87Sr/86Sr ratios as a new tracer to discriminate the provenance of shelf sediments in the study area. The 87Sr/86Sr ratios of the outer-shelf muddy sediments ranged from 0.7169 to 0.7216 in a wide range and was between those of the Huanghe River and Changjiang River sediments, suggesting multiple sources of the sediment in the area.  相似文献   

Meteors and showers a millennium ago     

Sang-Hyeon Ahn 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,343(4):1095-1100

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Uncertainties in limits on TeV-gravity from neutrino-induced showers     

Eun-Joo Ahn  Marco Cavagli  Angela V. Olinto 《Astroparticle Physics》2005,22(5-6):377-385

In models with TeV-scale gravity, ultrahigh energy cosmic rays can generate microscopic black holes in the collision with atmospheric and terrestrial nuclei. It has been proposed that stringent bounds on TeV-scale gravity can be obtained from the absence of neutrino cosmic ray showers mediated by black holes. However, uncertainties in the cross section of black hole formation and, most importantly, large uncertainties in the neutrino flux affects these bounds. As long as the cosmic neutrino flux remains unknown, the non-observation of neutrino induced showers implies less stringent limits than present collider limits.  相似文献