Robust intensification of hydroclimatic intensity over East Asia from multi-model ensemble regional projections     

Im  Eun-Soon  Choi  Yeon-Woo  Ahn  Joong-Bae 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1241-1254

This study assesses the hydroclimatic response to global warming over East Asia from multi-model ensemble regional projections. Four different regional climate models (RCMs), namely, WRF, HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, and GRIMs, are used for dynamical downscaling of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Atmosphere and Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual mean precipitation, hydroclimatic intensity index (HY-INT), and wet and dry extreme indices are analyzed to identify the robust behavior of hydroclimatic change in response to enhanced emission scenarios using high-resolution (12.5 km) and long-term (1981–2100) daily precipitation. Ensemble projections exhibit increased hydroclimatic intensity across the entire domain and under both the RCP scenarios. However, a geographical pattern with predominantly intensified HY-INT does not fully emerge in the mean precipitation change because HY-INT is tied to the changes in the precipitation characteristics rather than to those in the precipitation amount. All projections show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation, which lead to a possible shift in hydroclimatic regime prone to an increase of both wet and dry extremes. In general, projections forced by the RCP8.5 scenario tend to produce a much stronger response than do those by the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the temperature increase under the RCP4.5 scenario is sufficiently large to induce significant changes in hydroclimatic intensity, despite the relatively uncertain change in mean precipitation. Likewise, the forced responses of HY-INT and the two extreme indices are more robust than that of mean precipitation, in terms of the statistical significance and model agreement.

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Future changes in summer precipitation in regional climate simulations over the Korean Peninsula forced by multi-RCP scenarios of HadGEM2-AO     

Dong-Hyun Cha  Dong-Kyou Lee  Chun-Sil Jin  Gayoung Kim  Yonghan Choi  Myoung-Seok Suh  Joong-Bae Ahn  Song-You Hong  Seung-Ki Min  Seong-Chan Park  Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):139-149

In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula (KP) was dynamically downscaled using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) forced by multi- representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios of HadGEM2-AO, and changes in summer precipitation were investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, the RCM reasonably reproduced long-term climatology of summer precipitation over the KP, and captured the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band. In future projections, all RCP experiments using different RCP radiative forcings (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 runs) simulated an increased summer precipitation over the KP. However, there were some differences in changing rates of summer precipitation among the RCP experiments. Future increases in summer precipitation were affected by future changes in moisture convergence and surface evaporation. Changing ranges in moisture convergences among RCP experiments were significantly larger than those in surface evaporation. This indicates that the uncertainty of changes in summer precipitation is related to the projection of the monsoon circulation, which determines the moisture convergence field through horizontal advection. Changes in the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band were inconsistent among RCP experiments. However, all experiments showed that Changma rain-band was enhanced during late June to early July, but it was weakened after mid-July due to the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. These results indicate that precipitation intensity related to Changma rain-band will be increased, but its duration will be reduced in the future.  相似文献   

Time of emergence of anthropogenic warming signals in the Northeast Asia assessed from multi-regional climate models     

Donghyun Lee  Seung-Ki Min  Changyong Park  Myoung-Seok Suh  Joong-Bae Ahn  Dong-Hyun Cha  Dong-Kyou Lee  Song-You Hong  Seong-Chan Park  Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):129-137

Time of Emergence (ToE) is the time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the background noise of natural climate variability, and can provide useful information for climate change impacts and adaptations. This study examines future ToEs for daily maximum and minimum temperatures over the Northeast Asia using five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations driven by single Global Climate Model (GCM) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. Noise is defined based on the interannual variability during the present-day period (1981-2010) and warming signals in the future years (2021-2100) are compared against the noise in order to identify ToEs. Results show that ToEs of annual mean temperatures occur between 2030s and 2040s in RCMs, which essentially follow those of the driving GCM. This represents the dominant influence of GCM boundary forcing on RCM results in this region. ToEs of seasonal temperatures exhibit larger ranges from 2030s to 2090s. The seasonality of ToE is found to be determined majorly by noise amplitudes. The earliest ToE appears in autumn when the noise is smallest while the latest ToE occurs in winter when the noise is largest. The RCP4.5 scenario exhibits later emergence years than the RCP8.5 scenario by 5-35 years. The significant delay in ToEs by taking the lower emission scenario provides an important implication for climate change mitigation. Daily minimum temperatures tend to have earlier emergence than daily maximum temperature but with low confidence. It is also found that noise thresholds can strongly affect ToE years, i.e. larger noise threshold induces later emergence, indicating the importance of noise estimation in the ToE assessment.  相似文献   

Modeling the underwater light field fluctuations in coastal oceanic waters: Validation with experimental data     

Balasubramanian Sundarabalan  Palanisamy Shanmugam  Yu-Hwan Ahn 《Ocean Science Journal》2016,51(1):67-86

Modeling of the wave-induced underwater light fluctuations at near-surface depths in coastal oceanic waters is challenging because of the surface roughness and strong anisotropic effects of the light field. In the present work, a simple and computationally efficient radiative transfer model is used for the wind-driven sea surface for simulating underwater light fields such as downwelling irradiance (E_d), upwelling irradiance (E_u), and upwelling radiance (L_u) in a spatial domain. It is an extension of our previous work that essentially combines the air–sea interface of the wind-driven sea surface with transmittance and reflectance along with the diffuse and direct components of the homogenous and inhomogeneous water column. The present model simulates underwater light fields for any possible values of absorption and backscattering coefficients. To assess the performance of the model, the E_d, E_u, and L_u profiles predicted by the model are compared with experimental data from relatively clear and turbid coastal waters. Statistical results show significantly low mean relative differences regardless of the wavelength. Comparison of the simulated and in-situ time series data measured over rough sea surfaces demonstrates that model-observation agreement is good for the present model. The Hydrolight model when implemented with the modified bottom reflectance and phase function provides significantly better results than the original Hydrolight model without consideration of the bottom slope and vertically varying phase function. However, these results are non-spatial and have errors fluctuating at different wavelengths. To further demonstrate the efficiency of the present model, spatial distribution patterns of the underwater light fields are simulated based on the measured data from a coastal station for different solar zenith angles (under sunny condition). Simulated wave-induced fluctuations of the underwater lights fields show a good consistency with in-situ data for a few near-surface depths. The present model also provides a reasonable approximation for simulating wave-induced effects on the downward irradiance field and its anisotropic conditions caused by the surface roughness, wavelength and angle of incidence.  相似文献   

Global energy and water balances in the latest reanalyses     

Suchul Kang  Joong-Bae Ahn 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2015,51(4):293-302

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Evaluation of Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum as a sentinel species for metal pollution monitoring in estuarine tidal flats of Korea: effects of size, sex, and spawning on baseline accumulation     

Ji J  Choi HJ  Ahn IY 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(4):447-453

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Shear Load Transfer Characteristics of Drilled Shafts Socketed in Rocks     

Sangseom Jeong  Sangyong Ahn  Hoonil Seol 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2010,43(1):41-54

This paper presents a shear load transfer function and an analytical method for estimating the load transfer characteristics of rock-socketed drilled shafts subjected to axial loads. A shear load transfer (f–w) function of rock-socketed drilled shafts is proposed based on the constant normal stiffness (CNS) direct shear tests. It is presented in terms of the borehole roughness and the geological strength index (GSI) so that the structural discontinuities and the surface conditions of the rock mass can be considered. An analytical method that takes into account the coupled soil resistance effects is proposed using a modified Mindlin’s point load solution. Through comparisons with load test results, the proposed methodology is in good agreement with the general trend observed in in situ measurements and represents an improvement in the prediction of the shear behavior of rock-socketed drilled shafts.  相似文献   

Physiological Characteristics and Related Biochemical Parameters of Snow Algae from King George Island,Antarctica     

Bo?Kyung?Kim  HyoungMin?Joo  Boyeon?Lee  Dong-Hun?Lee  In-Young?Ahn  Sun-Yong?HaEmail author 《Ocean Science Journal》2018,53(4):621-630

Red and green snow caused by snow algal blooms is common on glaciers and snowfields worldwide. Reddish and greenish snow samples containing algae were collected at the vicinity of penguin rockeries on King George Island (62°13′S, 58°47′W, near the King Sejong Station), Antarctica in February 2017 to investigate their physiology. Eight pigments and six fatty acids were detected from the samples. No difference in pigment and fatty acid (FA) composition was found between reddish and greenish snow samples. In contrast, spectral profiling and mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) were different between reddish and greenish snow. Particularly in greenish snow, a high absorbance between 450–600 nm was observed. The average MAA concentration was 316.0 μg g^-1 in greenish snow, which was higher than that of reddish snow (278.2 μg g^-1). The MAA to Particulate organic carbon (POC) ratio (mg (g C)^-1) for reddish snow (6.2 mg (g C)^-1) was higher than that of greenish snow (2.6 mg (g C)^-1). These results suggest that reddish and greenish snow are considered to be the same species based on pigment and FA composition. Compared with photoprotective pigments, MAAs offer snow algae a more effective photoprotection strategy to promote tolerance of natural levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR).  相似文献   

Systematic Geometric Image Measurement Errors of Circular Object Targets: Mathematical Formulation and Correction   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

S. J. Ahn  H. J. Warnecke  & R. Kotowski 《The Photogrammetric Record》1999,16(93):485-502

The use of circular object targets is very common in spatial photogrammetric object reconstruction. An object circle is projected on to the image plane as an ellipse if the object plane and the image plane are not parallel to each other. The image co-ordinates of the centre of the ellipse are usually determined automatically by means of digital image processing. These co-ordinates are then used as observations for a subsequent reconstruction of the three dimensional object point. The image co-ordinates of the centre of the ellipse and the true co-ordinates of the projected centre of the circular object target are not identical; thus eccentricity is caused, resulting in systematic geometric image measurement errors. This paper describes the functional context of this eccentricity for a typical target/camera set-up. The possible solutions for a correction of this systematic eccentricity error are derived. Guidelines for the correct combination of object target sizes and exposure distances, guaranteeing reliable image point measurements and accurate object point determination, are proposed.  相似文献   

Estimating landslide susceptibility areas considering the uncertainty inherent in modeling methods     

Ho?Gul?Kim  Dong?Kun?LeeEmail author  Chan?Park  Yoonjung?Ahn  Sung-Ho?Kil  Sunyong?Sung  Gregory?S.?Biging 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(11):2987-3019

Landslides are one of the most dangerous types of natural disasters, and damage due to landslides has been increasing in certain regions of the world because of increased precipitation. Policy decision makers require reliable information that can be used to establish spatial adaptation plans to protect people from landslide hazards. Researchers presently identify areas susceptible to landslides using various spatial distribution models. However, such data are associated with a high amount of uncertainty. This study focuses on quantifying the uncertainty of several spatial distribution models and identifying the effectiveness of various ensemble methods that can be used to provide reliable information to support policy decisions. The area of study was Inje-gun, Republic of Korea. Ten models were selected to assess landslide susceptibility. Moreover, five ensemble methods were selected for the aggregated results of the 10 models. The uncertainty was quantified using the coefficient of variation and the uncertainty map we developed revealed areas with strongly differing values among single models. A matrix map was created using an ensemble map and a coefficient of variation map. Using matrix analysis, we identified the areas that are most susceptible to landslides according to the ensemble model with a low uncertainty. Thus, the ensemble model can be a useful tool for supporting decision makers. The framework of this study can also be employed to support the establishment of landslide adaptation plans in other areas of the Republic of Korea and in other countries.  相似文献