Quasi-periodic fluctuations in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas region in a coupled climate model   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sonia R. Gamiz-Fortis  Rowan T. Sutton 《Ocean Dynamics》2007,57(6):541-557

We report an analysis of the mechanisms responsible for interannual variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas in a control integration of the HadCM3 coupled climate model. Interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) is dominated by a quasi-periodic ∼7-year signal. Analyses show that the mechanism involves a competition between convection and advection. Advection carries cold, fresh, Arctic water over warm, salty, Atlantic water, while convection periodically mixes these two water masses vertically, raising SST. Convection is able to raise SST because of the presence of a subsurface temperature maximum. The GIN Seas convection in HadCM3 is forced by wind stress anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The consequent SST anomalies feedback positively to force the atmosphere, resulting in a weak spectral peak (at ∼7 years) in GIN Seas sea level pressure. Although there is no evidence of a similar oscillation in reality, key aspects of the simulated mechanism may be relevant to understanding variability in the real GIN Seas. In particular, the potential for increases in convection to raise SST offers a possible new explanation for increases in SST that occurred between the 1960s and the late 1980s/early 1990s. These SST increases may have contributed to the observed sea-ice retreat. In addition, a positive feedback between GIN Seas SST and the atmosphere could contribute to the persistence of the NAO, potentially helping to explain its red spectrum or recent northeastward shift.

Sonia R. Gamiz-FortisEmail:

  相似文献   

Stratigraphy,age and petrography of the Beni Issef successions (External Rif; Morocco): Insights for the evolution of the Maghrebian Chain   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Angelida Di Staso  Vincenzo Perrone  Sonia Perrotta  Mohamed Najib Zaghloul  Michel Durand-Delga 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(9):718-730

In the Beni Issef Massif, nearly 30 km west of Chefchaouen (Morocco), the thickest post-nappe succession within the Rifian sector of the Maghrebian Chain seals the tectonic contact between the Intrarifian External Tanger and Loukkos Units, related to the Rifian External Domain. This succession is very important for the reconstruction of the deformation timing of the Rifian Maghrebids. The age of its base, in fact, is an important constraint for defining an upper boundary to the stacking of both the Intrarifian and Maghrebian Flysch Basin Units, because clasts fed by the Melloussa and Numidian Flysch Nappes are abundant in the conglomerate layers. Field and biostratigraphic analyses pointed out the presence of a Lower Beni Issef Fm, unconformable on the Intrarifian External Tanger and Loukkos Units, and an Upper Beni Issef Fm, unconformable on both the Intrarifian Units and the Lower Beni Issef Fm. The Lower Beni Issef Fm, 150 m thick, consists of lenticular conglomerates with huge blocks in a marly-clayey matrix, followed by marls and minor sandstones. It deposited in a siliciclastic platform, shows a fining upward trend and is affected by metre- to hectometre-sized, locally reversed, folds. Samples collected 45–50 m above the base of the formation resulted not older than Late Tortonian in age, but an older age for the base of the formation cannot be excluded. The Upper Beni Issef Fm, up to 550 m thick, starts with coarse conglomerates followed by medium- to coarse-grained well-bedded sandstones and by grey-blue marls and mudrocks. It indicates deposition in a channelized marine delta, with evolution towards pro-delta pelites, and shows sub-horizontal or gently dipping beds towards the east. Biostratigraphic data indicate a probable Messinian age for this formation. The composition of the arenites of both Lower Beni Issef and Upper Beni Issef Fms is quartzolithic and all samples show a notable content of monocrystalline well-rounded quartz and sedimentary lithic fragments. Detrital modes, all falling in the Quartzose Recycled and Transitional Recycled fields, suggest a provenance from recycling of sedimentary successions, easily recognizable in the Flysch Basin and External Units, mainly the Numidian Nappe sandstones. A Tortonian age of the Lower Beni Issef Fm would agree with the Late Serravallian age of the uppermost beds of the External Tanger Unit and indicate that the most probable age for the stacking of the Intrarifian Units falls in the Late Serravallian-Middle Tortonian time span. The Lower Beni Issef Fm was involved in a compressive tectonic phase testified by north-south striking folds. Later, probably during Messinian, the Upper Beni Issef Fm deposited in a younger intramontane basin, resting on both the Intrarifian Units and the Lower Beni Issef Fm. Successively, the Upper Beni Issef Fm was passively transported piggyback on top of the fold and thrust belt during later tectonic evolution of the Rifian Maghrebids. This tectonic evolution results quite similar to that recognized in the Tellian and Sicilian Maghrebids and also in the southern Apennines.  相似文献   

Impact of soil map specifications for European climate simulations     

Benoit P. Guillod  Edouard L. Davin  Christine Kündig  Gerhard Smiatek  Sonia I. Seneviratne 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):123-141

Soil physical characteristics can influence terrestrial hydrology and the energy balance and may thus affect land–atmosphere exchanges. However, only few studies have investigated the importance of soil textures for climate. In this study, we examine the impact of soil texture specification in a regional climate model. We perform climate simulations over Europe using soil maps derived from two different sources: the soil map of the world from the Food and Agricultural Organization and the European Soil Database from the European Commission Joint Research Center. These simulations highlight the importance of the specified soil texture in summer, with differences of up to 2 °C in mean 2-m temperature and 20 % in precipitation resulting from changes in the partitioning of energy at the land surface into sensible and latent heat flux. Furthermore, we perform additional simulations where individual soil parameters are perturbed in order to understand their role for summer climate. These simulations highlight the importance of the vertical profile of soil moisture for evapotranspiration. Parameters affecting the latter are hydraulic diffusivity parameters, field capacity and plant wilting point. Our study highlights the importance of soil properties for climate simulations. Given the uncertainty associated with the geographical distribution of soil texture and the resulting differences between maps from different sources, efforts to improve existing databases are needed. In addition, climate models would benefit from tackling unresolved issues in land-surface modeling related to the high spatial variability in soil parameters, both horizontally and vertically, and to limitations of the concept of soil textural class.  相似文献   

A multi-physics ensemble of regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula     

Sonia Jerez  Juan Pedro Montavez  Juan Jose Gomez-Navarro  Raquel Lorente-Plazas  Juan Andres Garcia-Valero  Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(7-8):1749-1768

This study illustrates the sensitivity of regional climate change projections to the model physics. A single-model (MM5) multi-physics ensemble of regional climate simulations over the Iberian Peninsula for present (1970–1999) and future (2070–2099 under the A2 scenario) periods is assessed. The ensemble comprises eight members resulting from the combination of two options of parameterization schemes for the planetary boundary layer, cumulus and microphysics. All the considered combinations were previously evaluated by comparing hindcasted simulations to observations, none of them providing clearly outlying climates. Thus, the differences among the various ensemble members (spread) in the future projections could be considered as a matter of uncertainty in the change signals (as similarly assumed in multi-model studies). The results highlight the great dependence of the spread on the synoptic conditions driving the regional model. In particular, the spread generally amplifies under the future scenario leading to a large spread accompanying the mean change signals, as large as the magnitude of the mean projected changes and analogous to the spread obtained in multi-model ensembles. Moreover, the sign of the projected change varies depending on the choice of the model physics in many cases. This, together with the fact that the key mechanisms identified for the simulation of the climatology of a given period (either present or future) and those introducing the largest spread in the projected changes differ significantly, make further claims for efforts to better understand and model the parameterized subgrid processes.  相似文献   

A Policy-enabling framework for the ex-ante evaluation of marine protected areas     

R. Quentin Grafton  Sonia AkterTom Kompas 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2011,54(6):478-487

A marine protected area (MPA) potentially generates a wide range of consumptive use, non-consumptive use and non-use values that include: critical habitat protection, conservation of marine biodiversity, recovery of threatened and endangered marine species, increased recreational benefits and increased biomass of harvested marine species. To help assess whether such values exceed the potential costs of MPAs, this paper provides a policy-enabling framework that reviews the existing theoretical and practical instruments and approaches that can be used in the ex-ante evaluation of MPAs. This framework is in three parts. First, a range of alternative monetary and non-monetary techniques to estimate three key economic benefits of MPAs: consumptive, non-consumptive use and non-use values are presented. Second, three decision protocols that can be applied to determine the desirability of establishing MPAs are described. Third, caveats of these approaches and the necessity to accommodate social needs of the communities are provided. The framework shows that biological and ecological considerations together with economic viability and socio-economic factors can and should be taken into account when deciding about when and where to establish MPAs and of what size.  相似文献   

Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment: case study of the historic city centre of Coimbra, Portugal   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  

Romeu Vicente  Sonia Parodi  Sergio Lagomarsino  Humberto Varum  J. A. R. Mendes Silva 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(4):1067-1096

Seismic risk evaluation of built-up areas involves analysis of the level of earthquake hazard of the region, building vulnerability and exposure. Within this approach that defines seismic risk, building vulnerability assessment assumes great importance, not only because of the obvious physical consequences in the eventual occurrence of a seismic event, but also because it is the one of the few potential aspects in which engineering research can intervene. In fact, rigorous vulnerability assessment of existing buildings and the implementation of appropriate retrofitting solutions can help to reduce the levels of physical damage, loss of life and the economic impact of future seismic events. Vulnerability studies of urban centres should be developed with the aim of identifying building fragilities and reducing seismic risk. As part of the rehabilitation of the historic city centre of Coimbra, a complete identification and inspection survey of old masonry buildings has been carried out. The main purpose of this research is to discuss vulnerability assessment methodologies, particularly those of the first level, through the proposal and development of a method previously used to determine the level of vulnerability, in the assessment of physical damage and its relationship with seismic intensity. Also presented and discussed are the strategy and proposed methodology adopted for the vulnerability assessment, damage and loss scenarios for the city centre of Coimbra, Portugal, using a GIS mapping application.  相似文献   

Household perceptions of climate change and preferences for mitigation action: the case of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in Australia   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sonia Akter  Jeff Bennett 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):417-436

The study aims to reveal Australian households?? perceptions of climate change and their preferences for mitigation action. A web-based survey was conducted in November 2008 in which over 600 households from the state of New South Wales were asked for their willingness to bear extra household expenditure to support the ??Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme??, an emissions trading scheme proposed by the Australian government. The results of the study can be summarized in four key findings. First, respondents?? willingness to pay for climate change mitigation is significantly influenced by their beliefs of future temperature rise. Support for the policy increased at a decreasing rate as the perceived temperature change rose. Second, perceptions of policy failure have a significant negative impact on respondents?? support for the proposed mitigation measure. The higher the perceived likelihood that the measure would not deliver any outcome, the lower was the likelihood that respondents would support the policy. Third, respondent preferences for the proposed policy are influenced by the possibility of reaching a global agreement on emissions reduction. Sample respondents stated significantly higher values for the policy when the biggest polluting countries implement a similar scheme. Finally, respondents?? willingness to take action against climate change, both at the national and household level, is found to be influenced by their level of mass-media exposure. Particularly, those respondents who watched ??An Inconvenient Truth?? were significantly more likely to act for climate change mitigation than others.  相似文献   

Mediterranean climate extremes in synoptic downscaling assessments     

Stefanie Seubert  Sonia Fernández-Montes  Andreas Philipp  Elke Hertig  Jucundus Jacobeit  Gernot Vogt  Andreas Paxian  Heiko Paeth 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(1-2):257-275

The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called “ratio of overlapping”. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070–2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe.  相似文献   

Analysis of the reliability of a statistical oil spill response model     

Ana J. Abascal  Sonia Castanedo  Raul Medina  Maria Liste 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(11):2099-2110

A statistical oil spill response model is developed and validated by means of actual oil slick observations reported during the Prestige accident and trajectories of drifter buoys. The model is based on the analysis of a database of hypothetical oil spill scenarios simulated by means of a Lagrangian transport model. To carry out the simulations, a re-analysis database consisting of 44-year hindcast dataset of wind and waves and climatologic daily mean surface currents is used. The number of scenarios required to obtain statistically reliable results is investigated, finding that 200 scenarios provide an optimal balance between the accuracy of the results and the computational effort. The reliability of the model was analyzed by comparing the actual data with the numerical results. The agreement found between actual and numerical data shows that the developed statistical oil spill model is a valuable tool to support spill response planning.  相似文献   

Lava discharge during Etna's January 2011 fire fountain tracked using MSG-SEVIRI     

Mathieu Gouhier  Andrew Harris  Sonia Calvari  Philippe Labazuy  Yannick Guéhenneux  Franck Donnadieu  Sébastien Valade 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(4):787-793

Etna's January 2011 eruption provided an excellent opportunity to test the ability of Meteosat Second Generation satellite's Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) sensor to track a short-lived effusive event. The presence of lava fountaining, the rapid expansion of lava flows, and the complexity of the resulting flow field make such events difficult to track from the ground. During the Etna's January 2011 eruption, we were able to use thermal data collected by SEVIRI every 15 min to generate a time series of the syn-eruptive heat flux. Lava discharge waxed over a ~1-h period to reach a peak that was first masked from the satellite view by a cold tephra plume and then was of sufficient intensity to saturate the 3.9-μm channel. Both problems made it impossible to estimate time-averaged lava discharge rates using the syn-eruptive heat flux curve. Therefore, through integration of data obtained by ground-based Doppler radar and thermal cameras, as well as ancillary satellite data (from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer), we developed a method that allowed us to identify the point at which effusion stagnated, to allow definition of a lava cooling curve. This allowed retrieval of a lava volume of ~1.2 × 10⁶ m³, which, if emitted for 5 h, was erupted at a mean output rate of ~70 m³ s⁻¹. The lava volume estimated using the cooling curve method is found to be similar to the values inferred from field measurements.  相似文献