Design of agricultural insurance policy for tea tree freezing damage in Zhejiang Province, China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Weiping Lou  Shanlei Sun 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,111(3-4):713-728

This paper proposes a method to design freezing damage policy-based agricultural insurance contracts for tea trees (an economic crop) in the Zhejiang Province of China, using a weather index. Data of economic losses caused by freezing damage, and the beginning dates of tea plucking (BDTP) from the Agricultural Bureau of each county in Zhejiang Province and tea planters, and meteorological observations were collected to establish the prediction model for BDTP, and to determine the relationship between economic loss rates caused by freezing damage at or before BDTP, and the minimum temperatures for “Wuniuzao,” “Longjing-43,” and “Jiukeng” teas. Based on the information diffusion theoretical model, occurrence probabilities of BDTP from 1 February to 20 April and lower temperatures at different levels are calculated. Then, the insurance premium rates of the three tea tree species can be estimated. Lastly, the tea tree freezing damage insurance contracts are designed, combining the advantages of regional yield-based index insurance and weather-based index insurance.  相似文献   

Effects of climate change on annual streamflow using climate elasticity in Poyang Lake Basin, China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Shanlei Sun  Haishan Chen  Weimin Ju  Jie Song  Hao Zhang  Jie Sun  Yujie Fang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(1-2):169-183

Hydrological processes depend directly on climate conditions [e.g., precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PE)] based on the water balance. This paper examines streamflow datasets at four hydrological stations and meteorological observations at 79 weather stations to reveal the streamflow changes and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Meigang, Saitang, Gaosha, and Xiashan) within Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2000. Most of the less than 90th percentile of daily streamflow in each watershed increases significantly at different rates. As an important indicator of the seasonal changes in the streamflow, CT (the timing of the mass center of the streamflow) in each watershed shows a negligible change. The annual streamflow in each watershed increases at different rates, with a statistically significant trend (at the 5 % level) of 9.87 and 7.72 mm year^?1, respectively, in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds. Given the existence of interactions between precipitation and PE, the original climate elasticity of streamflow can not reflect the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE effectively. We modify this method and find the modified climate elasticity to be more accurate and reasonable using the correlation analysis. The analyses from the modified climate elasticity in the four watersheds show that a 10 % increase (decrease) in precipitation will increase (decrease) the annual streamflow by 14.1–16.3 %, while a 10 % increase (decrease) in PE will decrease (increase) the annual streamflow by ?10.2 to ?2.1 %. In addition, the modified climate elasticity is applied to estimate the contribution of annual precipitation and PE to the increasing annual streamflow in each watershed over the past 40 years. Our result suggests that the percentage attribution of the increasing precipitation is more than 59 % and the decreasing in PE is less than 41 %, indicating that the increasing precipitation is the major driving factor for the annual streamflow increase for each watershed.  相似文献   

Changes in pick beginning date and frost damage risk of tea tree in Longjing tea-producing area     

Weiping Lou  Ke Sun  Shanlei Sun  Fenghua Ma  Dongfang Wang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(1-2):115-123

We analyze the pick beginning date and frost damage risk trends of Jiukeng, Longjing-43, and Wuniuzao tea trees with time, using meteorological data from 12 station pairs over the period 1971–2010 in the Longjing tea-producing area. The pick beginning date of Jiukeng, Longjing-43, and Wuniuzao varieties had no statistically significant trends before 1990. The pick beginning date of Jiukeng variety had statistically significant decreasing trends after 1990, and there were no statistically significant trends in the start date after 1990 for Longjing-43 and Wuniuzao varieties. The average pick beginning dates of Longjing-43 and Wuniuzao varieties before 1990 are later than those after 1990 by 3.8–4.8 and 2.0–3.1 days, respectively. We used the trend of difference between beginning date of tea plucking (BDTP) and 0 °C terminal date to analyze frost damage risk trends. Eleven counties had no statistically significant frost damage risk trends for Jiukeng, Longjing-43, and Wuniuzao varieties, leaving only one county with statistically significant trends.  相似文献   

网络数字雹雨分测仪技术试验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙玉稳  孙霞  侯正俊  石安英  周少科 《气象科技》2013,41(2):264-269

介绍了网络数字雹雨分测仪的传感器结构和工作原理:利用浮力定律,翻斗计量,微机记录,网络传输等工作原理,模拟实验了理论数值和实验数值间的计量误差,探讨了误差产生的原因及野外观测调节技术和蒸发补偿订正等.经试验表明,各种部件结构科学、稳定、误差小、整体性能良好.野外观测资料表明,网络雹雨分测仪所测雨量与自动站观测的雨量误差在可接受范围;由于能同时进行雹雨分测,对极端冰雹天气具有实时监测优势,在野外林果和农作物雹灾危害评估中有重要作用,具有与遥测雨量计和其他遥测气象要素仪器一样的现代化水平,可广泛应用于农业和林业灾害野外监测网络之中.  相似文献   

不同参数化方案对风预报效果影响个例研究     

孙逸涵  程兴宏  柳艳香  宋丽莉 《气象科技》2013,41(5):870-877

中尺度气象模式对风场的预报效果与参数化方案的适应性紧密相关.以内蒙古高原丘陵地形、江苏平缓的海陆交界地形2种典型下垫面试验风电场为模拟区域,分别用WRFV3.2 （Weather Research and Forecast Model）模式自带的6种物理过程参数化组合方案预报了2010年1月和7月两个风电场区域的风速和风向,对比分析了参数化组合方案差异对风场预报的影响.结果表明：①内蒙古试验区,边界层MRF方案描述的边界层结构较MYJ方案合理;微物理方案WSM3在夏季的风速预报能力优于WSM6,而冬季相反;复杂地形区域的风场预报需考虑陆面过程参数化方案,尤其是夏季降水发生后,陆面过程对于边界层结构的影响增大,选用Noah优于无陆面过程.②江苏试验区,边界层MRF方案描述的边界层结构较MYJ方案合理;1月陆面过程RUC方案优于陆面热量扩散和Noah;7月陆面热量扩散方案优于RUC和Noah.③风向预报6个方案的预报风向统计与实际记录风向统计有较好的一致性,风向概率分布相似,盛行风向一致且稳定.  相似文献   

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: Overview and Performance     

J. Todd Hoeksema  Yang Liu  Keiji Hayashi  Xudong Sun  Jesper Schou  Sebastien Couvidat  Aimee Norton  Monica Bobra  Rebecca Centeno  K. D. Leka  Graham Barnes  Michael Turmon 《Solar physics》2014,289(9):3483-3530

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) began near-continuous full-disk solar measurements on 1 May 2010 from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). An automated processing pipeline keeps pace with observations to produce observable quantities, including the photospheric vector magnetic field, from sequences of filtergrams. The basic vector-field frame list cadence is 135 seconds, but to reduce noise the filtergrams are combined to derive data products every 720 seconds. The primary 720 s observables were released in mid-2010, including Stokes polarization parameters measured at six wavelengths, as well as intensity, Doppler velocity, and the line-of-sight magnetic field. More advanced products, including the full vector magnetic field, are now available. Automatically identified HMI Active Region Patches (HARPs) track the location and shape of magnetic regions throughout their lifetime. The vector field is computed using the Very Fast Inversion of the Stokes Vector (VFISV) code optimized for the HMI pipeline; the remaining 180^° azimuth ambiguity is resolved with the Minimum Energy (ME0) code. The Milne–Eddington inversion is performed on all full-disk HMI observations. The disambiguation, until recently run only on HARP regions, is now implemented for the full disk. Vector and scalar quantities in the patches are used to derive active region indices potentially useful for forecasting; the data maps and indices are collected in the SHARP data series, hmi.sharp_720s. Definitive SHARP processing is completed only after the region rotates off the visible disk; quick-look products are produced in near real time. Patches are provided in both CCD and heliographic coordinates. HMI provides continuous coverage of the vector field, but has modest spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution. Coupled with limitations of the analysis and interpretation techniques, effects of the orbital velocity, and instrument performance, the resulting measurements have a certain dynamic range and sensitivity and are subject to systematic errors and uncertainties that are characterized in this report.  相似文献   

Pb distribution and translocation in Jiaozhou Bay     

杨东方  苏畅  高振会  孙培艳  曹丽歆 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2008,26(3):296-299

The trends of distribution, translocation and seasonal change of heavy metal Pb were studied based on the surface and bottom water sampling in Jiaozhou Bay in 1979, and compared with those in 1990＇s. The results showed that the source of Pb in the bay was from wastewater and sewage in the east of Jiaozhou Bay from ocean vessels. Pb concentration was higher in spring and lower in summer and autumn, and remained stable through sedimentation in the bottom layer. The overall water quality was good in 1970＇s. Compared with the environmental monitoring data of 1995-1999, Pb pollution had become serious. Therefore, more efforts should be made to protect the bay from Pb pollution.  相似文献   

An Accessible Model of Dynamics and Cycle for Interstellar OH and H2O Maser Associations     

Hanping Liu  Jin Sun  T. Thissen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2004,289(1-2):147-160

An accessible model for interstellar OH/H₂O maser associations is presented. It can be classified into radiative pumping model. It can close the dynamical cycle of H₂O and OH species, and can give an interpretation on interstellar OH/H₂O associations. A reasonable scheme for both regeneration and destruction of interstellar H₂O and OH molecules is argued. Our model has overcome the defects of former radiative models, and is compatible with astronomical conditions. It is shown that the rotational population of H₂O and OH in these regions is much less affected by collisions than by radiation. Some experiments have confirmed our proposal.  相似文献   

RFI Test Observations at a Candidate Ska Site in China     

B. Peng  J. M. Sun  H. Y. Zhang  T. Y. Piao  J. Q. Li  L. Lei  T. Luo  D. H. Li  Y. J. Zheng  R. NAN 《Experimental Astronomy》2004,17(1-3):423-430

Radio frequency interference (RFI) test observations were carried out at one of the candidate Square Kilometre Array (SKA) sites in Guizhou province, following the “RFI Measurement Protocol for Candidate SKA Sites” (hereafter RFI protocol). All data (raw and calibrated) are preserved in some suitable format, such as that set by the international RFI working group of the Site Evaluation and Selection Committee (SESC). An RFI test in December 2003 was performed according to Mode 1 of the RFI Protocol, in order to identify technical difficulties which might arise during a co-ordinated RFI measurement campaign over a period of 1 year. In this paper we describe the current equipment, observational technique and data presentation. The preliminary results demonstrate that the RFI situation at Dawodang depression in Guizhou province makes it quite a promising location for the proposed SKA. Furthermore, the first session of the RFI monitoring program, which was made in May 2004, showed that a complete RFI measurement including both modes 1 and 2 of the RFI Protocol would take about 2 weeks. The possible ways to minimize some limitations of the current equipment are also discussed, which will enable us to meet the RFI protocol.  相似文献   

FEM for Stability Analysis Against Overturning of Portal Water Injection Sheet Pile     

LIU Lingyun GUO Haiyan SUN Qi 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2006,5(3):269-272

Portal water injection sheet pile （PWISP）, as a retaining wall, appeared in seashore engineering in 2000. Although there have been many systematic methods addressing the issue, there are very few focusing on the new structure because of the difficulties in defining the earth pressure between the two piles. A new method is proposed in this paper to obtain the earth pressure between the PWISPs. Stability analysis against overturning follows as a consequence. Using Finite Element Analysis （FEA） software ANSYS, both the nonlinear characteristics of the soil and those of the contact elements are taken into account to obtain the earth pressure distribution on the contact surface. Based on the results of the FEA, Rankin＇s theory and the slip plane theory, the formula of the earth pressure on the inner surfaces between the piles is given. Assuming the PWISP as the analysis object and the earth pressure as an outside force acting upon it, the equation of stability against overturning of the PWISP is presented. Finally, some parameters are discussed about the stability of the PWISP against overturning, such as the embedded depth of the front pile, the distance between the two rows of piles, the internal friction angle and the cohesion of the earth. The results show that the increase of the cohesion and the internal friction angle will decrease the distance and the embedded depth, and therefore enhance the stability against overturning. Specifically, when the distance is 1/3-2/3 of the maximal excavation depth, the two rows of piles give the best performance in stability.  相似文献